Edgar Alvarez

1B Knoxville Smokies

Age 26 L/R 6'3" / 225 lbs AA HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	24	A+CHC	438	.258/.354/.375	8	8	64	—	.216/.287/.303
2026	25	AACHC	426	.202/.346/.361	11	1	60	—	.171/.275/.298
2027PROJ2% MLB	26	MLBCHC	5	.196/.283/.304	0	0	67	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	27	MLBCHC	72	.197/.284/.306	1	1	68	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

BB%93

Chase%76

ISO56

wRC+52

wOBA45

Z-Con%43

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsChantz Mack (age 26) · Jeremy Vasquez (age 26) · Daniel Nunez (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .283 / .304

PA5

HR0

K%40

BB%10

BABIP279

ISO109

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	110	94	23	4	0	1	15	36	1	1	1	245	355	319	674	74	386	33	14	316	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	438	376	97	20	0	8	52	94	4	8	1	258	354	375	729	117	318	21	12	329	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA	Knoxville Smokies	—	426	346	70	20	1	11	72	115	4	1	1	202	346	361	707	159	263	27	17	323	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	110	99	20	3	0	1	10	45	1	1	1	202	282	263	544	61	356	41	9	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	438	393	85	16	0	6	35	113	4	8	1	216	287	303	590	87	276	26	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	426	369	63	18	1	9	49	140	4	1	1	171	275	298	573	127	236	33	12	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	110	99	20	3	0	1	10	45	1	1	1	202	282	263	544	61	358	41	9	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	110	94	23	4	0	1	15	36	1	1	1	245	355	319	674	74	386	33	14	316	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	438	393	85	16	0	6	35	113	4	8	1	216	287	303	590	87	282	26	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	438	376	97	20	0	8	52	94	4	8	1	258	354	375	729	117	318	21	12	329	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	426	369	63	18	1	9	49	140	4	1	1	171	275	298	573	127	241	33	12	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	—	426	346	70	20	1	11	72	115	4	1	1	202	346	361	707	159	263	27	17	323	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	110	98	20	3	0	1	10	45	1	1	1	204	282	265	547	61	356	41	9	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	438	396	85	16	0	6	35	113	4	8	1	215	287	301	588	86	276	26	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	426	370	63	18	1	9	49	140	4	1	1	170	275	297	572	127	236	33	12	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	110	98	20	3	0	1	10	45	1	1	1	204	282	265	547	61	356	41	9	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	438	396	85	16	0	6	35	113	4	8	1	215	287	301	588	86	276	26	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	426	370	63	18	1	9	49	140	4	1	1	170	275	297	572	127	236	33	12	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CHC	2%	380	336	66	15	1	7	38	120	3	4	1	195	282	303	585	108	277	32	10	268	67	-15	+0	+0	-7	+8	-0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	CHC	2%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	196	283	304	587	108	279	40	0	269	67	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	27%	269	238	48	11	1	5	27	84	2	3	1	196	283	305	588	109	277	31	10	269	68	-10	+0	+0	-5	+6	-0.9
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	27%	72	64	12	3	0	1	7	22	1	1	0	197	284	306	590	109	279	31	10	270	68	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	72	64	12	3	0	1	7	22	1	1	0	188	278	281	559	94	268	31	10	270	63	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	108	27	0	9	63	199	9	9	0	187	277	280	557	93	268	31	10	270	63	-25	+2	+0	-12	+14	-2.1
Career	—	MLE		—	1493	1320	259	58	3	25	146	461	13	16	5	196	283	302	584	105	277	31	10	262	63	-20	+0	+0	-9	+11	-1.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	112	25	1	11	64	201	6	7	2	195	283	299	582	104	274	31	10	262	63	-25	+1	+0	-12	+14	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Edgar Alvarez (OGILVIE)	26	45	35	45	50	193/280/300	107	277	4	3	31%	10%	67	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chantz Mack 2017 · AA	26	44→46	43→45	45	46	218/286/329	111	292	11	5	28%	8%	75	-0.5	215/290/317	102	295	9	6	28%	9%	74	-0.6	154/267/206	52	209	4	0	26%	13%	39	-0.6
✕Jeremy Vasquez 2022 · AA	26	43→47	43→45	40→30	48	210/277/320	111	270	10	4	25%	8%	70	-0.9	217/277/307	90	277	7	4	23%	7%	66	-1.1	218/276/284	66	273	4	0	20%	7%	58	-1.2
✕Daniel Nunez 2008 · AAA	26	44→49	42→30	44→50	46	214/288/313	99	295	9	10	29%	9%	72	-0.7	219/282/311	92	305	8	13	29%	7%	70	-0.9	236/313/304	68	301	3	14	21%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Bryce Ball 2024 · AA	26	42→50	44→45	39→30	46	205/278/323	118	294	11	2	32%	9%	71	-0.8	198/267/305	107	312	9	5	36%	8%	63	-1.4	150/230/240	90	259	6	0	41%	9%	33	-1.2
✕D.J. Hicks 2016 · AA	26	43→46	43→45	40→30	45	213/275/324	110	288	10	3	29%	8%	70	-0.9	215/275/303	88	303	6	5	29%	7%	64	-1.3	213/273/286	73	303	4	2	29%	7%	57	-1.5
✕Viosergy Rosa 2016 · AA	26	42→49	44→45	46→30	48	211/285/326	115	275	12	2	27%	9%	74	-0.5	206/270/322	116	289	12	2	31%	8%	68	-1.0	200/261/318	118	281	13	0	32%	7%	62	-1.0
✕Aldrem Corredor 2022 · AA	26	45→54	43→45	46→40	41	221/269/328	107	292	10	4	28%	6%	68	-1.0	219/280/328	109	288	12	4	27%	7%	72	-0.7	210/275/307	97	271	13	0	27%	8%	64	-1.0
✕Justin Toerner 2023 · AAA	26	40	42→40	48→50	45	193/287/295	103	289	10	10	34%	9%	70	-0.9	192/283/307	115	279	12	11	33%	10%	70	-0.8	124/235/230	107	167	13	9	33%	11%	35	-1.2
✕Lazaro Alonso 2021 · AA	26	46→44	44→45	44→30	43	220/289/338	118	332	12	4	35%	8%	78	-0.3	207/286/309	102	359	9	6	40%	10%	71	-0.8	172/268/256	84	325	9	2	45%	11%	50	-0.9
✕Will Toffey 2021 · AA	26	44	43→45	46→50	49	209/295/322	113	300	9	7	31%	10%	78	-0.3	202/284/324	122	338	12	12	40%	8%	74	-0.5	184/271/307	123	316	12	13	42%	8%	62	-0.7
✕Chase Calabuig 2022 · AA	26	42→52	39→40	44→45	49	205/274/284	79	258	7	6	23%	8%	60	-1.6	247/306/361	114	288	9	5	17%	7%	89	+0.5	272/331/396	124	311	9	3	15%	7%	102	+0.7
✕Matt Winaker 2022 · AA	26	44→39	38→45	45	47	206/296/287	81	283	5	6	27%	8%	70	-0.8	196/285/287	91	266	7	7	27%	8%	66	-1.1	139/244/213	74	186	6	4	27%	9%	35	-1.4
✕Stefan Welch 2014 · AA	25	42→43	44→45	45→40	44	211/277/327	117	279	13	5	28%	7%	72	-0.7	204/279/316	112	284	11	5	30%	8%	70	-0.8	180/264/285	106	254	10	1	31%	8%	57	-1.2
✕Connor Panas 2019 · AA	26	41→42	45	45→40	40	208/268/329	121	273	13	5	28%	6%	69	-0.9	214/277/337	123	278	12	8	27%	6%	74	-0.6	172/258/322	149	210	16	6	26%	7%	60	-0.3
✕Carlos Franco 2018 · AAA	26	45→49	45	42→45	41	220/274/334	114	311	13	3	32%	7%	72	-0.7	217/267/348	131	332	16	4	37%	6%	72	-0.7	203/250/330	127	319	16	1	40%	6%	61	-1.2
✕Shane Matheny 2022 · AA	26	39→42	42→45	47→50	41	190/258/296	106	297	10	6	38%	8%	57	-1.8	204/286/324	120	318	13	9	36%	10%	74	-0.5	195/283/314	119	298	13	9	36%	10%	69	-0.6
✕Carson Taylor 2024 · AA	25	43→49	43→45	48→40	46	216/280/322	106	281	12	3	27%	8%	71	-0.8	225/303/345	120	295	13	5	26%	9%	85	+0.2	221/306/337	116	289	13	3	26%	10%	83	+0.1
✕Preston Palmeiro 2021 · AA	26	41→47	41→45	45→40	39	205/247/300	95	274	9	4	28%	5%	53	-2.1	214/263/327	113	273	11	5	25%	6%	65	-1.2	206/260/318	111	260	10	3	24%	6%	60	-0.9
✕John Urick 2008 · A	26	41→45	44→45	41→30	42	206/271/328	122	287	12	2	31%	7%	70	-0.9	213/277/331	118	308	10	3	32%	7%	72	-0.7	207/274/325	118	296	10	0	32%	7%	68	-0.8
✕Nick Banks 2021 · AA	26	45	43→45	49→45	39	223/264/334	111	295	10	8	28%	5%	68	-1.0	213/265/322	109	317	11	5	34%	6%	65	-1.2	205/258/311	106	309	11	2	36%	6%	57	-1.0