Jacob Hartlaub — OGILVIE

Jacob Hartlaub P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 191 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%22.2%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	6	0	10	39	7	0	1	0%	1.7	17.9%	0.0%	17.9%	2.6%	3.60	2.99	—
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	6	0	10	39	7	0	1	0%	1.7	17.9%	0.0%	17.9%	2.6%	3.60	2.99	—
2025	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	6	0	10	39	7	0	1	0%	1.7	17.9%	0.0%	17.9%	2.6%	3.60	3.00	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	37	0	53	237	60	20	9	0%	1.4	18.9%	9.9%	9.0%	4.9%	5.23	5.43	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	37	0	53	237	60	20	9	0%	1.4	18.9%	9.9%	9.0%	4.9%	5.23	5.43	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	TB	27	0	38	173	44	15	6	0%	1.4	25.4%	8.7%	16.8%	3.5%	4.93	3.95	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	TB	10	0	15	64	16	5	3	0%	1.5	25.0%	7.8%	17.2%	4.7%	6.00	4.55	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TB	51	0	54	226	52	21	7	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.1%	13.8%	3.0%	4.40	4.35	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	TB	52	0	54	229	53	20	7	0%	1.0	23.3%	8.8%	14.5%	3.0%	4.33	4.28	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	TB	52	0	54	229	54	20	7	0%	1.0	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	3.0%	4.29	4.26	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	TB	51	0	53	225	53	20	7	0%	1.0	23.5%	8.9%	14.6%	3.0%	4.30	4.30	+0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	TB	22	0	23	97	22	9	3	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.1%	13.8%	3.0%	4.40	4.35	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	TB	34	0	36	152	35	13	5	0%	1.1	23.3%	8.8%	14.5%	3.0%	4.33	4.28	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	TB	41	0	43	182	43	16	5	0%	1.0	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	3.0%	4.29	4.26	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	TB	44	0	46	194	46	17	6	0%	1.0	23.5%	8.9%	14.6%	3.0%	4.30	4.30	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		140	0	147	622	145	55	19	0%	1.1	23.4%	8.9%	14.5%	3.0%	4.32	3.91	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	75	26	0%	1.1	23.4%	8.9%	14.5%	3.0%	4.32	3.91	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		43	0	63	276	52	23	13	0%	1.5	18.8%	8.5%	10.3%	4.5%	4.97	5.08	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	0	200	872	164	74	40	0%	1.5	18.8%	8.5%	10.3%	4.5%	4.97	5.08	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Hartlaub (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	22.2%	9.5%	3.0%	—	4.30	23.2%	14.3%	162	-0.18	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	95
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	92
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	91
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	91
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	90
Carlos Navas R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	23	SU	3.67	22.0%	8.4%	2.5%	.283	3.52	22.0%	16.1%	229	-0.15	2.98	385	90
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	89
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	89
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	89
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	88
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	88
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	88
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	88
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	88
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	88
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	87
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	87
Johnny Barbato R 2015 · 3.57 FIP	23	SU	3.57	21.3%	9.4%	2.0%	.284	4.32	21.6%	11.4%	167	+0.75	2.59	304	87
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	87
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	51	23.1%	9.0%	1.17	4.35
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68