Mason Burns — OGILVIE

Mason Burns P Springfield Cardinals

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%23.9%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP39

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	58	246	79	30	5	0%	1.5	24.4%	14.2%	10.3%	2.4%	3.39	4.13	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	58	246	79	30	5	0%	1.5	24.4%	14.2%	10.3%	2.4%	3.39	4.13	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	58	246	79	30	5	0%	1.5	32.1%	12.2%	19.9%	2.0%	3.39	3.05	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	16	0	22	90	24	11	2	0%	1.4	21.6%	13.4%	8.2%	2.7%	2.08	4.44	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	16	0	22	90	24	11	2	0%	1.4	21.6%	13.4%	8.2%	2.7%	2.08	4.44	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	STL	16	0	22	90	24	11	2	0%	1.4	26.7%	12.2%	14.4%	2.2%	2.08	3.62	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	STL	51	0	53	225	54	27	6	0%	1.0	24.2%	12.0%	12.2%	2.9%	4.60	4.53	+0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	51	0	53	225	55	26	6	0%	1.0	24.4%	11.7%	12.6%	2.9%	4.53	4.49	+0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	50	0	52	221	54	26	7	0%	1.0	24.3%	11.7%	12.6%	2.9%	4.52	4.52	+0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	STL	22	0	23	97	24	12	3	0%	1.0	24.2%	12.0%	12.2%	2.9%	4.60	4.53	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	34	0	36	152	37	18	4	0%	1.1	24.4%	11.7%	12.6%	2.9%	4.53	4.49	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	39	0	41	173	42	20	5	0%	1.1	24.3%	11.7%	12.6%	2.9%	4.52	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		95	0	100	420	102	49	12	0%	1.0	24.3%	11.8%	12.5%	2.9%	4.54	4.14	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	98	24	0%	1.1	24.3%	11.8%	12.5%	2.9%	4.54	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		56	0	80	336	80	47	8	0%	1.4	23.7%	14.0%	9.7%	2.4%	3.04	4.21	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	0	200	840	199	117	21	0%	1.4	23.7%	14.0%	9.7%	2.4%	3.04	4.21	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Burns (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	23.9%	13.3%	2.9%	—	4.51	24.3%	12.5%	159	-0.22	—	—	—
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	95
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	92
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	92
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	90
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	90
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	90
Luis Ramirez R 2016 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	104	90
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	89
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	89
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	89
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	89
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	88
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	88
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	88
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	88
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	88
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	88
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	87
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	87
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	24.2%	12.1%	1.12	4.59
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99