Mason Burns
P
Springfield Cardinals
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION22 act + 39 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
K%23.6%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP39
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 58 | 246 | 79 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.4% | 14.2% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 3.39 | 4.23 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 58 | 246 | 79 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 32.1% | 12.2% | 19.9% | 2.0% | 3.39 | 3.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 16 | 0 | 22 | 90 | 24 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.6% | 13.4% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 2.08 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 37 | 0 | 39 | 163 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 60 | 253 | 63 | 28 | 7 | — | — | 24.7% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 2.7% | 3.57 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.6% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.03 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 37 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 37 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 9.8% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 37 | 0 | 39 | 163 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 9.8% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | STL | 36 | 0 | 37 | 158 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 10.0% | 14.0% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.30 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 26 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 9.8% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 9.8% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | STL | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 10.0% | 14.0% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 101 | 0 | 106 | 446 | 107 | 44 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 9.9% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 3.95 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 83 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 9.9% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 56 | 0 | 80 | 336 | 80 | 47 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 3.04 | 4.28 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 140 | 0 | 200 | 840 | 199 | 117 | 22 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 3.04 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mason Burns (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.30 | 24.0% | 14.2% | 117 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 92 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 92 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 91 |
| Zach Franklin R 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 90 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 90 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.45 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .304 | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.10 | 3.45 | 289 | 90 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 89 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 89 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2028 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 88 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 88 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 214 | 88 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.31 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .262 | 6.15 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.84 | 3.31 | 207 | 88 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 88 |
| Trey McLoughlin R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.89 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .295 | 4.73 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 95 | +0.84 | 3.78 | 217 | 87 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 87 |
| Cole Ayers R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .298 | 5.00 | 15.2% | -0.4% | 32 | +1.14 | 3.52 | 171 | 87 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.73 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.95 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +1.22 | 2.65 | 304 | 87 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.3% | .282 | 5.34 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.57 | 3.77 | 105 | 87 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.33 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.36 | 2.87 | 223 | 87 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 87 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 39 | 23.9% | 10.0% | 1.14 | 4.35 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |