Charlie McDaniel

Charlie McDaniel P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 25 LHP 6'3" / 208 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION119 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%16.6%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	12	100	413	95	25	8	52%	4.4	17.3%	7.1%	10.2%	2.3%	3.68	3.81	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	12	100	413	95	25	8	52%	4.4	17.3%	7.1%	10.2%	2.3%	3.68	3.81	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	12	100	413	95	25	8	52%	4.4	23.0%	6.1%	16.9%	1.9%	3.68	2.99	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	25	25	119	510	99	36	19	100%	4.8	15.4%	7.8%	7.6%	4.5%	5.37	5.27	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	25	25	119	510	99	36	19	100%	4.8	15.4%	7.8%	7.6%	4.5%	5.37	5.27	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	SF	9	9	38	160	39	8	5	100%	4.3	24.4%	5.0%	19.4%	3.1%	3.99	3.39	—
2026	25	AA RAW	SF	16	16	81	350	60	28	14	100%	5.0	17.1%	8.0%	9.1%	4.0%	6.02	4.86	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	SF	1	1	6	25	4	2	1	100%	5.9	16.6%	7.4%	9.2%	2.9%	4.64	4.64	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	125	535	103	38	20	—	—	19.3%	7.1%	12.2%	3.7%	5.34	5.24	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SF	19	19	116	492	86	37	15	100%	6.1	17.5%	7.4%	10.1%	3.0%	4.58	4.57	+0.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	19	19	115	485	86	36	15	100%	6.0	17.8%	7.5%	10.3%	3.0%	4.57	4.58	+0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	19	19	111	470	84	36	15	100%	5.9	17.9%	7.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.61	4.65	+0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	18	18	106	449	80	36	15	100%	5.9	17.8%	7.9%	9.8%	3.3%	4.70	4.77	+0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	SF	17	17	100	422	74	35	15	100%	5.9	17.4%	8.2%	9.2%	3.5%	4.85	4.95	-0.1
2032	31	MLB MLE	SF	16	16	93	394	67	34	14	100%	5.8	17.0%	8.6%	8.4%	3.7%	5.03	5.15	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	51	215	38	16	6	100%	6.4	17.5%	7.4%	10.1%	2.7%	4.46	4.45	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	73	308	55	23	9	100%	6.1	17.8%	7.5%	10.3%	2.8%	4.45	4.46	+0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	84	355	64	27	10	100%	6.0	17.9%	7.7%	10.2%	2.9%	4.48	4.52	+0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	87	367	65	29	11	100%	6.2	17.8%	7.9%	9.8%	3.0%	4.57	4.64	+0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	86	363	63	30	12	100%	6.1	17.4%	8.2%	9.2%	3.2%	4.71	4.81	-0.0
2032	31	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	83	350	60	30	12	100%	5.9	17.0%	8.6%	8.4%	3.4%	4.88	5.00	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		77	77	464	1957	344	155	59	100%	6.0	17.6%	7.9%	9.6%	3.0%	4.60	4.28	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	148	67	25	100%	6.0	17.6%	7.9%	9.6%	3.0%	4.60	4.28	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		48	37	219	923	150	69	33	77%	4.6	16.2%	7.5%	8.7%	3.5%	4.60	4.62	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	34	200	842	137	63	30	77%	4.6	16.2%	7.5%	8.7%	3.5%	4.60	4.62	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Charlie McDaniel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	16.6%	7.4%	2.9%	—	4.60	17.7%	10.2%	343	-0.04	—	—	—
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	85
Jordan Carr L 2022 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	4.01	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.15	3.49	269	83
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	83
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	81
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	80
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	80
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	12.3%	8.5%	4.0%	.327	4.78	10.7%	3.9%	181	-0.55	3.68	322	80
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	80
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	79
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	79
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	79
Grant Watson L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	16.4%	10.3%	3.0%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	180	78
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	78
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	77
Eric Jokisch L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	26	SP	4.34	11.1%	7.1%	2.3%	.307	4.05	14.7%	6.8%	342	-0.29	3.78	412	77
Jordan Fowler L 2023 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	13.2%	7.9%	2.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	124	77
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	77
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	76
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	76
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	102	17.5%	7.8%	1.24	4.70
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38