Ethan Wagner — OGILVIE

Ethan WagnerOF FCL Astros

Age 20 R/R 6'0" / 215 lbs ROK HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 62 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .274 / .321

PA62

HR1

K%29

BB%8

BABIP270

ISO125

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	153	138	23	3	1	3	12	55	2	2	3	167	243	268	512	101	247	36	8	227	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	153	131	30	5	1	4	19	37	2	2	3	229	336	374	710	145	286	24	12	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	ROK	HOU	—	65	54	9	2	2	1	8	17	3	6	1	167	308	333	641	167	222	26	12	285	76	-2	+1	+0	-0	+2	0.1
YTD	20	ROK	HOU	—	65	49	12	3	3	1	13	12	3	6	1	245	431	490	921	245	306	18	20	409	171	+5	+1	+0	-0	+2	0.8
ROS	20	ROK	HOU	0%	62	56	11	2	1	1	5	18	1	2	0	196	274	321	596	125	263	29	8	260	57	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.1
ROS	20	MLB	HOU	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		265	—	—	251	50	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	20	ROK	HOU	—	65	55	9	2	2	1	8	17	3	6	1	164	308	327	635	164	216	26	12	285	76	-2	+1	+0	-0	+2	0.1
TOT	20	ROK	HOU	—	127	110	20	4	3	2	13	35	4	8	1	182	291	327	619	145	247	28	10	273	67	-5	+1	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	HOU	34%	210	187	37	7	2	3	18	59	3	3	1	198	279	305	584	107	267	28	9	269	64	-9	+0	+0	-1	+6	-0.4
2027	21	MLB	HOU	34%	72	65	13	2	1	1	6	20	1	1	0	200	278	308	585	108	269	28	8	260	57	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	72	66	13	2	1	1	6	20	1	1	0	197	278	303	581	106	267	28	8	260	57	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	596	117	18	9	9	54	181	9	9	0	196	277	302	579	106	266	28	8	260	57	-31	+2	+0	-4	+18	-1.5
Career	—			—	425	381	71	12	4	7	35	132	6	7	4	186	265	294	559	108	262	31	8	252	51	-23	-0	+0	-3	+12	-1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	108	18	6	11	54	202	9	11	6	185	265	293	558	108	260	31	8	252	51	-36	-0	+0	-4	+18	-2.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	153	131	30	5	1	4	19	37	2	2	3	229	336	374	710	145	286	24	12	321	104	+1	-1	—	—	+4	0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Wagner (OGILVIE)	20	30	35	40	45	182/291/327	145	247	2	8	28%	10%	67	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→45	44→55	39	187/251/282	95	271	10	9	33%	6%	46	-2.0	202/259/294	92	279	6	11	28%	6%	51	-1.7	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→34	41→45	48→50	40	199/264/295	96	283	9	10	32%	6%	54	-1.4	202/295/301	99	301	9	8	33%	10%	69	-0.4	182/291/276	94	275	9	10	33%	11%	61	-0.6
✕Ariel Baez 2011 · A	20	40	40	43→45	47	196/276/290	95	257	8	5	26%	8%	58	-1.2	194/257/282	88	274	6	6	30%	6%	47	-1.9	174/232/256	82	248	6	4	31%	5%	29	-1.0
✕Cristopher Luciano 2016 · A	20	41	39→40	44→50	50	194/287/280	86	269	6	7	28%	10%	61	-1.0	189/274/269	80	284	5	6	32%	9%	52	-1.6	77/194/108	32	130	4	0	40%	12%	-22	-1.1
✕Ronnierd Garcia 2013 · A	20	37	38→45	43→40	36	183/242/259	77	280	7	4	36%	5%	35	-2.8	207/260/302	95	287	7	4	29%	6%	53	-1.5	214/269/322	109	294	9	2	29%	6%	59	-0.5
✕Miguel Moreno 2009 · A	19	38	39→40	42→40	48	184/276/263	79	271	7	5	32%	10%	52	-1.6	200/281/271	71	286	5	5	29%	9%	56	-1.3	176/264/209	33	250	3	3	28%	10%	29	-0.9
✕Jorge Quiterio 2015 · A	20	36	40→45	46→45	39	183/234/269	86	255	8	8	31%	5%	33	-2.9	194/235/279	85	299	6	9	35%	5%	36	-2.7	177/200/259	83	273	6	12	37%	2%	14	-1.1
✕Enger Jimenez 2015 · A	20	39	40	48→50	38	191/241/288	97	267	7	9	30%	5%	42	-2.3	214/267/304	90	282	5	10	24%	6%	56	-1.3	223/275/315	92	285	5	14	22%	5%	59	-0.5
✕Leandro Pineda 2022 · A	20	35→39	37→45	43→45	46	171/257/239	68	251	4	7	31%	9%	37	-2.6	189/260/297	108	280	9	5	33%	7%	53	-1.5	202/271/322	120	261	12	6	26%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Maurizo Buda 2012 · A	20	40	37→40	38→40	42	189/263/261	72	271	5	4	30%	7%	45	-2.1	205/282/282	77	293	5	4	29%	8%	58	-1.2	192/282/254	62	276	4	1	29%	9%	51	-0.7
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→36	40→45	47→50	42	190/245/284	93	260	7	9	29%	6%	43	-2.2	187/246/287	100	286	9	8	36%	7%	43	-2.2	205/268/331	127	286	15	12	32%	7%	61	-0.7
✕Alexander Mojica 2023 · A	20	34	41→45	47→40	39	168/245/259	91	281	10	3	41%	8%	37	-2.6	203/283/327	124	326	12	6	38%	9%	71	-0.3	196/292/343	147	309	14	3	37%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	36	36→40	45→40	46	170/263/235	65	253	4	5	32%	9%	40	-2.4	187/263/267	80	309	5	4	37%	8%	46	-2.0	184/258/270	86	308	5	2	39%	8%	42	-0.8
✕Anthony Rodriguez 2016 · A	20	37	38→40	39→45	37	182/244/264	82	270	6	3	33%	5%	37	-2.6	171/254/244	73	261	5	5	34%	8%	37	-2.6	138/240/198	60	210	5	4	33%	9%	18	-1.5
✕Francisco Medina 2018 · A	20	40	38→40	45→40	39	194/247/263	69	280	6	5	32%	6%	37	-2.6	179/229/253	74	344	5	6	46%	6%	27	-3.3	135/180/213	77	254	5	6	47%	5%	-6	-1.3
✕Adalfi Almonte 2016 · A	20	40	38→40	44→50	48	189/286/268	79	268	5	11	29%	9%	58	-1.2	204/300/282	78	311	5	12	32%	9%	67	-0.5	165/304/222	57	285	5	23	37%	12%	53	-0.3
✕Carlos Pacheco 2019 · A	20	34	40→45	45→50	40	171/240/260	88	276	8	9	39%	8%	35	-2.8	188/245/276	88	325	7	9	41%	7%	40	-2.4	155/212/245	90	274	9	10	44%	6%	17	-1.3
✕Rafael Mejia 2018 · A	20	35	42→40	47→50	36	182/227/281	99	253	10	6	32%	5%	33	-2.9	211/251/341	130	301	15	8	34%	4%	60	-1.0	206/233/374	168	276	24	10	35%	2%	56	-0.3
✕Garrett Whitley 2017 · A	20	40→36	42→50	47→55	44	197/267/302	105	280	9	9	31%	8%	56	-1.3	191/270/310	119	334	12	13	42%	9%	61	-1.0	169/260/316	147	293	15	18	44%	10%	55	-0.9
✕J.V. Martinez 2019 · A	20	40→34	42→45	43→30	39	199/258/300	101	281	9	3	32%	6%	53	-1.5	192/251/294	102	276	9	2	32%	6%	48	-1.9	177/238/280	102	253	9	1	32%	6%	36	-1.5