Ethan Wagner — OGILVIE

Ethan WagnerOF FCL Astros

Age 20 R/R 6'0" / 215 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 11 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.100 / .182 / .100

PA11

HR0

K%27

BB%9

BABIP264

ISO99

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	153	131	30	5	1	4	19	37	2	2	3	229	336	374	710	145	286	24	12	321	104	+1	-1	—	—	+3	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	153	138	23	3	1	3	12	54	2	2	3	167	243	268	512	101	239	35	8	224	38	-11	-1	—	—	+3	-0.9
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	153	138	23	3	1	3	12	54	2	2	3	167	243	268	512	101	244	35	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	153	131	30	5	1	4	19	37	2	2	3	229	336	374	710	145	286	24	12	321	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	153	138	23	3	1	3	12	54	2	2	3	167	243	268	512	101	239	35	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	153	138	23	3	1	3	12	54	2	2	3	167	243	268	512	101	239	35	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	HOU	—	65	54	9	2	2	1	8	17	3	6	1	167	308	333	641	167	222	26	12	285	79	-2	+1	+0	-0	+1	0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK RAW	HOU	—	65	49	12	3	3	1	13	12	3	6	1	245	431	490	921	245	306	18	20	409	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	ROK MLE	HOU	0%	11	10	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		263	27	9	261	63	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	20	ROK MLE	HOU	—	76	64	10	2	2	1	9	20	3	6	1	156	289	297	586	141	209	26	12	282	77	-2	+1	+0	-0	+2	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	HOU	34%	210	187	37	7	2	3	18	59	3	3	1	198	279	305	584	107	267	28	9	269	68	-8	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	HOU	34%	72	65	13	2	1	1	6	20	1	1	0	200	278	308	585	108	269	28	8	259	68	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	72	65	13	2	1	1	6	20	1	1	0	200	278	308	585	108	273	28	8	259	56	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	117	18	9	9	54	181	9	9	0	199	277	307	584	107	272	28	8	259	56	-24	+2	+0	-4	+14	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	374	335	61	10	3	6	31	116	5	5	4	182	261	284	545	101	256	31	8	251	56	-8	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	105	17	5	10	54	202	9	9	7	180	260	278	539	98	255	31	8	251	56	-25	+1	+0	-4	+14	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Wagner (OGILVIE)	20	30	35	40	45	190/270/297	107	263	2	3	29%	8%	63	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	38	42→40	44→55	39	190/253/289	99	277	10	9	34%	6%	54	-2.0	206/263/300	94	283	6	11	28%	6%	59	-1.6	204/262/298	94	272	5	15	25%	6%	56	-0.8
✕Ariel Baez 2011 · A	20	40	40	43→45	47	196/276/290	95	257	8	5	26%	8%	63	-1.4	194/257/282	88	274	6	6	30%	6%	53	-2.1	174/232/256	82	248	6	4	31%	5%	37	-1.0
✕Cristopher Luciano 2016 · A	20	41	39→40	44→50	50	194/287/280	86	269	6	7	28%	10%	65	-1.2	189/274/269	80	284	5	6	32%	9%	57	-1.8	77/194/108	32	130	4	0	40%	12%	-8	-1.1
✕Miguel Moreno 2009 · A	19	38	39→40	42→40	48	184/276/263	79	271	7	5	32%	10%	57	-1.8	200/281/271	71	286	5	5	29%	9%	61	-1.5	176/264/209	33	250	3	3	28%	10%	37	-1.0
✕Ronnierd Garcia 2013 · A	20	37	38→45	43→40	36	183/242/259	77	280	7	4	36%	5%	42	-2.9	207/259/301	94	287	7	4	29%	6%	58	-1.7	214/269/322	109	294	9	2	29%	6%	63	-0.6
✕Jorge Quiterio 2015 · A	20	36	40→45	46→45	39	183/234/269	86	255	8	8	31%	5%	41	-3.0	194/235/279	85	299	6	9	35%	5%	43	-2.8	177/200/259	83	273	6	12	37%	2%	24	-1.1
✕Enger Jimenez 2015 · A	20	39	40	48→50	38	191/241/288	97	267	7	9	30%	5%	49	-2.4	214/267/304	90	282	5	10	24%	6%	61	-1.5	223/275/315	92	285	5	14	22%	5%	64	-0.6
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→40	41→45	48→50	41	200/267/299	99	282	9	10	31%	6%	61	-1.5	203/296/305	102	299	9	8	32%	10%	74	-0.5	186/292/283	98	277	9	10	33%	11%	67	-0.7
✕Maurizo Buda 2012 · A	20	40	37→40	38→40	42	189/263/261	72	271	5	4	30%	7%	51	-2.2	205/282/282	77	293	5	4	29%	8%	63	-1.4	192/282/254	62	276	4	1	29%	9%	57	-0.7
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	36	36→40	45→40	46	170/263/235	65	253	4	5	32%	9%	47	-2.6	187/263/267	80	309	5	4	37%	8%	53	-2.1	184/258/270	86	308	5	2	39%	8%	49	-0.9
✕Anthony Rodriguez 2016 · A	20	37	38→40	39→45	37	182/244/264	82	270	6	3	33%	5%	45	-2.7	171/254/244	73	261	5	5	34%	8%	45	-2.7	138/240/198	60	210	5	4	33%	9%	28	-1.5
✕Adalfi Almonte 2016 · A	20	40	38→40	44→50	48	189/286/268	79	268	5	11	29%	9%	63	-1.4	204/300/282	78	311	5	12	32%	9%	71	-0.8	165/304/222	57	285	5	23	37%	12%	59	-0.3
✕Francisco Medina 2018 · A	20	40	38→40	45→40	39	194/247/263	69	280	6	5	32%	6%	45	-2.7	179/229/253	74	344	5	6	46%	6%	36	-3.4	135/180/213	77	254	5	6	47%	5%	6	-1.3
✕Alexander Mojica 2023 · A	20	34	42→45	47→40	40	168/249/264	96	280	10	3	41%	8%	47	-2.5	199/279/320	121	325	12	6	39%	9%	72	-0.7	183/279/320	137	294	13	3	39%	10%	68	-0.4
✕Carlos Pacheco 2019 · A	20	34	40→45	45→50	40	171/240/260	88	276	8	9	39%	8%	42	-2.9	188/245/276	88	325	7	9	41%	7%	47	-2.5	155/212/245	90	274	9	10	44%	6%	26	-1.3
✕Rafael Mejia 2018 · A	20	35	42→40	47→50	36	182/227/281	99	253	10	6	32%	5%	41	-3.0	211/251/341	130	301	15	8	34%	4%	65	-1.2	206/233/374	168	276	24	10	35%	2%	61	-0.3
✕J.V. Martinez 2019 · A	20	40→36	42→45	43→30	39	199/258/300	101	281	9	3	32%	6%	58	-1.7	195/256/296	101	276	9	2	31%	6%	56	-1.9	183/244/285	102	260	9	1	32%	6%	47	-1.4
✕Adonis Paula 2014 · A	20	42	38→40	46→40	43	198/268/282	84	272	4	5	27%	7%	57	-1.8	190/244/266	76	304	4	4	36%	5%	45	-2.7	167/211/222	55	305	4	2	44%	4%	20	-1.3
✕Marco Guzman 2015 · A	20	41	39→45	44→50	48	196/264/281	85	246	6	7	22%	8%	56	-1.9	216/262/303	87	264	5	7	19%	6%	59	-1.7	224/262/324	100	290	5	8	24%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Juan Montes 2016 · A	21	39	39→30	43→55	43	190/267/276	86	260	7	5	28%	7%	57	-1.8	195/275/265	70	254	5	16	24%	6%	57	-1.8	185/271/239	53	243	4	21	23%	5%	49	-0.7