Ethan Wagner
OF FCL Astros| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19 | ROKHOU | 153 | .229/.336/.374 | 4 | 2 | 37 | — | .167/.243/.268 |
| 2026 | 20 | ROKHOU | 65 | .245/.431/.490 | 1 | 6 | 76 | — | .167/.308/.333 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBHOU | 175 | .194/.265/.292 | 2 | 2 | 58 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBHOU | 32 | .200/.272/.306 | 0 | 0 | 62 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros | — | 153 | 131 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 37 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 229 | 336 | 374 | 710 | 145 | 286 | 24 | 12 | 321 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | FCL Astros | — | 65 | 49 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 245 | 431 | 490 | 921 | 245 | 306 | 18 | 20 | 409 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 153 | 138 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 54 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 167 | 243 | 268 | 512 | 101 | 237 | 35 | 8 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 65 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 167 | 308 | 333 | 641 | 167 | 229 | 26 | 12 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 153 | 138 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 54 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 167 | 243 | 268 | 512 | 101 | 244 | 35 | 8 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Astros | — | 153 | 131 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 37 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 229 | 336 | 374 | 710 | 145 | 286 | 24 | 12 | 321 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 65 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 167 | 308 | 333 | 641 | 167 | 222 | 26 | 12 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK RAW | FCL Astros | — | 65 | 49 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 245 | 431 | 490 | 921 | 245 | 306 | 18 | 20 | 409 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 153 | 138 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 54 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 167 | 243 | 268 | 512 | 101 | 237 | 35 | 8 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 65 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 167 | 308 | 333 | 641 | 167 | 229 | 26 | 12 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 153 | 138 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 54 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 167 | 243 | 268 | 512 | 101 | 237 | 35 | 8 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 65 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 167 | 308 | 333 | 641 | 167 | 229 | 26 | 12 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | HOU | 0% | 175 | 158 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 52 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 194 | 265 | 292 | 557 | 98 | 268 | 30 | 7 | 254 | 58 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | HOU | 34% | 92 | 84 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 198 | 270 | 303 | 573 | 105 | 271 | 29 | 8 | 260 | 62 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | HOU | 34% | 32 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 272 | 306 | 578 | 106 | 275 | 28 | 6 | 263 | 62 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 32 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 219 | 200 | 419 | 33 | 238 | 28 | 6 | 263 | 53 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 609 | 101 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 183 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 166 | 218 | 199 | 417 | 33 | 237 | 28 | 6 | 263 | 53 | -29 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 350 | 313 | 55 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 110 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 176 | 261 | 288 | 548 | 112 | 247 | 31 | 9 | 247 | 53 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 102 | 17 | 7 | 11 | 56 | 204 | 11 | 19 | 7 | 176 | 261 | 286 | 547 | 110 | 247 | 31 | 9 | 247 | 53 | -30 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ROKFCL Astros · 65 PAwOBA .400 → .281 (−118)K% 18.5% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.46% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 12.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.62% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 3.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 10.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 5.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 8.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 5.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 2.08% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .400 → .281; ISO .245 → .180; BABIP .306 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Astros · 153 PAwOBA .316 → .223 (−92)K% 24.2% → 35.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.18% | ÷0.984 | ×1.440 | — | — | 35.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.42% | ÷0.992 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 7.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.31% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.28% | ÷0.956 | ×0.820 | ×1.021 | ×0.995 | 18.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.32% | ÷0.982 | ×0.720 | ×1.021 | ×0.995 | 3.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷1.030 | ×0.720 | ×1.021 | ×0.995 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.26% | ÷1.023 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 3.23% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 91, 2B 96, 3B 106, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .316 → .223; ISO .145 → .099; BABIP .286 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).