Jose Guzman — OGILVIE

Jose Guzman P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 21 RHP 5'10" / 144 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 96

ERA4.18

FIP4.18

K%19.3%

BB%5.7%

K-BB%13.6%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	17	0	27	117	18	4	2	0%	1.6	10.5%	4.3%	6.2%	0.7%	5.00	3.17	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	17	0	27	117	18	4	2	0%	1.6	10.5%	4.3%	6.2%	0.7%	5.00	3.17	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	17	0	27	117	18	4	2	0%	1.6	15.4%	3.4%	12.0%	1.7%	5.00	3.17	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	38	0	56	224	53	18	3	0%	1.5	17.5%	9.5%	8.0%	1.7%	2.41	3.78	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	38	0	56	224	53	18	3	0%	1.5	17.5%	9.5%	8.0%	1.7%	2.41	3.78	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	DET	38	0	56	224	53	18	3	0%	1.5	23.7%	8.0%	15.6%	1.3%	2.41	2.85	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	DET	55	0	58	243	51	14	7	0%	1.0	20.8%	5.7%	15.2%	2.9%	4.09	4.01	+0.4
2028	23	MLB MLE	DET	57	0	60	252	55	14	7	0%	1.0	21.8%	5.6%	16.1%	2.8%	3.99	3.91	+0.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	DET	58	0	61	258	58	14	7	0%	1.1	22.4%	5.6%	16.8%	2.8%	3.91	3.84	+0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	DET	59	0	62	262	60	14	7	0%	1.1	22.8%	5.5%	17.2%	2.8%	3.85	3.80	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	DET	59	0	62	262	60	14	7	0%	1.1	23.0%	5.5%	17.5%	2.8%	3.81	3.78	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	DET	58	0	61	258	59	14	7	0%	1.1	23.0%	5.6%	17.4%	2.9%	3.81	3.81	+0.5
2027	22	MLB CTX	DET	27	0	28	118	25	7	3	0%	1.0	20.8%	5.7%	15.2%	2.8%	4.02	3.94	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	DET	42	0	44	186	40	10	5	0%	1.0	21.8%	5.6%	16.1%	2.7%	3.92	3.84	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	DET	49	0	51	215	48	12	6	0%	1.0	22.4%	5.6%	16.8%	2.7%	3.84	3.77	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	DET	52	0	55	232	53	13	6	0%	1.1	22.8%	5.5%	17.2%	2.7%	3.78	3.73	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	DET	54	0	57	241	55	13	6	0%	1.1	23.0%	5.5%	17.5%	2.7%	3.74	3.71	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	DET	54	0	57	241	55	13	7	0%	1.1	23.0%	5.6%	17.4%	2.7%	3.74	3.74	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		277	0	291	1227	275	68	33	0%	1.0	22.4%	5.6%	16.9%	2.7%	3.82	3.40	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	189	47	23	0%	1.1	22.4%	5.6%	16.9%	2.7%	3.82	3.40	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		55	0	83	341	51	26	5	0%	1.5	15.1%	7.7%	7.4%	1.4%	3.25	3.57	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	0	200	822	124	63	11	0%	1.5	15.1%	7.7%	7.4%	1.4%	3.25	3.57	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Guzman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.18	19.3%	5.7%	2.9%	—	3.92	21.7%	16.1%	178	-0.26	—	—	—
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	93
Jeff Bain R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	21	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.339	4.22	19.1%	10.7%	274	+0.28	3.35	475	92
Alexander Campos R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	17.0%	6.0%	3.0%	.281	4.66	11.1%	6.0%	135	+0.61	4.02	157	91
Joe Shaw R 2015 · 3.29 FIP	21	SU	3.29	20.6%	4.5%	2.5%	.306	4.38	15.3%	6.7%	300	+1.09	3.29	371	89
Collin Kober R 2017 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	21.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.268	2.76	24.0%	17.9%	128	-0.63	2.38	294	88
Ben Sears R 2022 · 3.57 FIP	22	SU	3.57	16.0%	4.6%	2.2%	.270	4.20	16.8%	10.1%	182	+0.63	3.40	263	87
Nolan Blackwood R 2016 · 3.15 FIP	21	SU	3.15	17.8%	5.7%	1.5%	.345	3.41	17.0%	8.7%	184	+0.26	3.15	386	87
Tyler Stevens R 2017 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	20.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.293	3.96	23.1%	14.8%	127	-0.33	3.94	190	87
Blake Battenfield R 2017 · 3.35 FIP	22	SU	3.35	19.4%	6.2%	2.0%	.363	4.66	15.7%	8.7%	252	+1.31	3.35	389	86
Josh Sborz R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	21	SU	3.92	18.1%	6.8%	2.7%	.314	3.74	18.2%	8.4%	295	-0.18	2.15	569	86
Abel De Los Santos R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	22	SU	3.85	18.6%	5.1%	3.1%	.281	3.72	21.8%	11.0%	94	-0.13	3.67	152	86
Olbis Parra R 2017 · 4.04 FIP	22	SU	4.04	18.7%	4.7%	3.5%	.358	3.41	15.5%	11.4%	119	-0.63	3.35	138	86
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	86
Fraynel Nova R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SU	3.38	17.2%	6.6%	1.6%	.308	4.38	14.3%	3.3%	86	+1.00	3.38	129	85
Luke Eubank R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	21	SU	3.22	19.9%	6.7%	1.7%	.283	3.66	18.1%	8.7%	94	+0.44	3.18	157	85
Vince Arobio R 2017 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	16.5%	5.6%	3.8%	.237	3.97	22.7%	13.3%	89	-0.52	3.67	118	85
Kevin Coulter R 2019 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.51	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.24	3.27	128	85
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	84
Sean Boyle R 2018 · 4.70 FIP	21	SU	4.70	21.3%	7.8%	4.4%	.342	2.87	22.6%	15.3%	86	-1.83	2.87	543	84
Ismael Cabrera R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	21	SU	3.56	19.0%	7.4%	2.1%	.250	5.19	17.4%	6.6%	117	+1.63	3.56	133	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	54	22.2%	5.6%	1.10	3.92
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Adam Cimber ('24)	1.6	52	18.3%	6.6%	0.75	3.75
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	1.5	50	16.2%	6.3%	0.91	3.57