Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 0 | 16 | 59 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 2.0 | 16.0% | 4.6% | 11.3% | 2.0% | 2.87 | 3.43 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 0 | 16 | 59 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 2.0 | 22.0% | 3.4% | 18.6% | 1.7% | 2.87 | 2.65 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 71 | 290 | 68 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 2.0 | 18.7% | 4.3% | 14.3% | 2.2% | 4.08 | 3.30 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 71 | 290 | 68 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 2.0 | 23.4% | 4.5% | 19.0% | 2.4% | 4.08 | 3.02 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 44 | 0 | 58 | 246 | 50 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.7% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 3.28 | 4.19 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 44 | 0 | 58 | 246 | 50 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.3% | 6.1% | 14.2% | 2.0% | 3.28 | 3.27 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 62 | 280 | 55 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 16.3% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 4.33 | 4.97 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 62 | 280 | 55 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.6% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 4.33 | 4.58 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 27 | 8 | 48 | 212 | 41 | 17 | 8 | 30% | 1.8 | 17.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 5.03 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | KC | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 45 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.1% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 5.16 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | KC | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.1% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 5.16 | 5.16 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | KC | — | — | 118 | 508 | 86 | 46 | 17 | — | — | 16.9% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 5.11 | 4.93 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | KC | — | — | 7 | 30 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 15.1% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 5.16 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | KC | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 46 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.9% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 5.10 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | KC | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 46 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 5.10 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | KC | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 44 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.5% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 5.16 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | KC | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.9% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 5.10 | 5.11 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | KC | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 29 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 5.10 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | KC | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 33 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.5% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 5.16 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 119 | 0 | 125 | 527 | 86 | 52 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 5.13 | 4.79 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 138 | 83 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 5.13 | 4.79 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 156 | 8 | 255 | 1087 | 184 | 78 | 32 | 5% | 1.6 | 16.9% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.06 | 4.19 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 123 | 6 | 200 | 854 | 145 | 61 | 25 | 5% | 1.6 | 16.9% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.06 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ben Sears (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.16 | 15.1% | 9.7% | 3.2% | — | 5.16 | 16.3% | 6.4% | 200 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Raul Fernandez R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.42 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 2.3% | .270 | 5.61 | 20.4% | 6.2% | 38 | +1.19 | 3.95 | 165 | 89 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.47 | 3.92 | 256 | 87 |
| Tyler Mizenko R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.20 | 13.3% | 10.2% | 3.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 104 | 86 |
| Scott Burke R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.01 | 14.9% | 8.2% | 3.9% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 119 | 86 |
| Ryan Cook R 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 85 |
| Chase Plymell R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.67 | 14.1% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .248 | 4.51 | 14.4% | 5.2% | 85 | -0.16 | 3.79 | 291 | 85 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.49 | 15.1% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 218 | 85 |
| Confesor Lara R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 16.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 111 | 85 |
| Jonathan Hughes R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.28 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.58 | 17.1% | 4.9% | 50 | -0.70 | 3.50 | 219 | 84 |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.06 | 15.1% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.62 | 13.9% | 6.8% | 44 | +0.56 | 4.06 | 101 | 84 |
| Cesar Gomez R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.69 | 15.8% | 10.0% | 3.0% | .338 | 5.27 | 14.2% | 5.1% | 63 | +0.58 | 3.97 | 345 | 84 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.06 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 4.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 183 | 84 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.20 | 15.4% | 8.4% | 4.3% | .301 | 3.92 | 26.2% | 21.8% | 50 | -1.28 | 3.44 | 213 | 84 |
| Kurt Spomer R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.35 | 11.1% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .268 | 3.38 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 135 | -1.97 | 3.11 | 199 | 83 |
| Jason Jester R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.81 | 11.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .311 | 3.05 | 17.6% | 12.5% | 60 | -1.76 | 2.62 | 229 | 83 |
| Jake Christianson R 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 13.5% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 188 | 83 |
| Casey Cobb R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.47 | 15.8% | 9.5% | 4.5% | .342 | 5.97 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 58 | +0.50 | 3.73 | 191 | 83 |
| Justin Courtney R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.26 | 16.8% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .331 | 9.13 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 21 | +3.87 | 4.53 | 108 | 83 |
| Josh Zeid R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 83 |
| Tyler Higgins R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.07 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 2.5% | .312 | 5.46 | 23.0% | 16.1% | 81 | +1.39 | 3.58 | 290 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 16.0% | 9.8% | 1.26 | 5.13 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |