Rowell Arroyo — OGILVIE

Rowell Arroyo P Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 180 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 14 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%22.9%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	14	0	23	96	22	10	0	0%	1.6	15.6%	13.0%	2.6%	0.0%	3.97	3.43	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	14	0	23	96	22	10	0	0%	1.6	15.6%	13.0%	2.6%	0.0%	3.97	3.43	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	14	0	23	96	22	10	0	0%	1.6	22.9%	10.4%	12.5%	0.0%	3.97	2.48	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	6	0	6	34	7	9	1	0%	1.0	20.6%	26.5%	-5.9%	2.9%	7.50	6.33	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	6	0	6	34	7	9	1	0%	1.0	20.6%	26.5%	-5.9%	2.9%	7.50	6.33	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	6	0	6	34	7	9	1	0%	1.0	20.6%	26.5%	-5.9%	2.9%	7.50	7.43	—
2026	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	2	0	3	15	1	3	0	0%	1.7	6.7%	20.0%	-13.3%	0.0%	0.00	5.07	—
2026	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	2	0	3	15	1	3	0	0%	1.7	6.7%	20.0%	-13.3%	0.0%	0.00	5.07	—
2026	21	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	2	0	3	15	1	3	0	0%	1.7	6.7%	20.0%	-13.3%	0.0%	0.00	5.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CHC	13	0	14	59	14	6	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.2%	12.8%	3.0%	4.47	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CHC	19	0	20	84	20	8	2	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.5%	14.2%	2.9%	4.36	4.29	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	CHC	10	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.5%	14.2%	2.9%	4.36	4.29	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.5%	14.2%	2.9%	4.36	3.91	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	81	20	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.5%	14.2%	2.9%	4.36	3.91	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		22	0	32	145	23	24	1	0%	1.5	15.8%	16.9%	-1.1%	0.7%	4.22	4.28	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	0	200	906	144	153	6	0%	1.5	15.8%	16.9%	-1.1%	0.7%	4.22	4.28	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rowell Arroyo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	22.9%	10.2%	3.0%	—	4.29	23.7%	14.2%	20	-0.18	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	90
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	90
Corey Copping R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	21.4%	8.7%	3.1%	.265	4.55	19.6%	6.7%	179	+0.42	3.38	214	90
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.27	286	89
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	88
Jorge Julio R 2001 · 3.48 FIP	22	SU	3.48	22.2%	9.1%	2.0%	.348	4.31	20.4%	10.1%	199	+0.83	3.48	467	88
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	88
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	88
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	87
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	87
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	87
Collin Kober R 2017 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	21.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.268	2.76	24.0%	17.9%	128	-0.63	2.38	294	87
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	86
Nic Enright R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	22	SU	3.63	24.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.263	3.01	29.6%	23.5%	124	-0.62	0.43	249	86
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	86
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	86
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	86
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	85
Cam Bedrosian R 2014 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	21.5%	11.8%	2.1%	.350	2.72	26.8%	17.8%	154	-1.22	1.79	363	85