Derek Clark

P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 25 LHP 5'9" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.1 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#621ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	ASEA	4	4	8	0.00	0.60	34.5%	0.0%	—	K 34.5% · BB 0.0% · FIP 0.19
2026	24	ALAA	23	21	123	4.76	3.81	25.3%	4.7%	—	K 18.7% · BB 5.6% · FIP 5.16
2027PROJ	25	MLBLAA	—	—	0	4.50	4.50	19.6%	5.9%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBLAA	7	7	41	4.49	4.48	20.3%	6.0%	0.5
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBLAA	9	9	56	4.49	4.50	20.4%	6.2%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsColton Gordon (age 25) · Jake McSteen (age 25) · Christian Friedrich (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 119

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%19.6%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%13.8%

Proj IP86

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 86 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$21M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	4	4	8	29	10	0	0	100%	2.0	34.5%	0.0%	34.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.19	—
2024	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	4	4	8	29	10	0	0	100%	2.0	34.5%	0.0%	34.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.19	—
2024	22	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	4	4	8	29	10	0	0	100%	2.0	34.5%	0.0%	34.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.60	—
2026	24	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	23	21	123	510	129	24	21	91%	5.3	18.7%	5.6%	13.2%	5.4%	4.76	5.16	—
2026	24	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	23	21	123	510	129	24	21	91%	5.3	18.7%	5.6%	13.2%	5.4%	4.76	5.16	—
2026	24	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	23	21	123	510	129	24	21	91%	5.3	25.3%	4.7%	20.6%	4.1%	4.76	3.81	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.6%	5.9%	13.8%	3.5%	4.50	4.50	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	96	407	83	24	14	100%	6.0	20.3%	6.0%	14.3%	3.5%	4.45	4.44	+1.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	90	380	78	24	13	100%	6.0	20.4%	6.2%	14.2%	3.5%	4.45	4.46	+1.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	85	358	73	23	13	100%	6.1	20.3%	6.4%	13.9%	3.6%	4.50	4.53	+0.9
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	79	332	67	22	12	100%	6.0	20.2%	6.7%	13.5%	3.7%	4.59	4.66	+0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	71	301	60	21	12	100%	5.9	19.8%	7.0%	12.8%	3.9%	4.74	4.84	+0.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	63	267	52	20	11	100%	5.7	19.4%	7.3%	12.1%	4.1%	4.92	5.04	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAA	7	7	41	173	35	10	6	100%	5.9	20.3%	6.0%	14.3%	3.5%	4.49	4.48	+0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	56	236	48	15	8	100%	6.2	20.4%	6.2%	14.2%	3.6%	4.49	4.50	+0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	64	270	55	17	10	100%	5.8	20.3%	6.4%	13.9%	3.6%	4.54	4.57	+0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	64	270	54	18	10	100%	5.8	20.2%	6.7%	13.5%	3.8%	4.63	4.70	+0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	61	258	51	18	10	100%	6.1	19.8%	7.0%	12.8%	4.0%	4.78	4.88	+0.4
2033	31	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	56	236	46	17	10	100%	6.2	19.4%	7.3%	12.1%	4.2%	4.97	5.09	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	57	342	1445	290	96	55	100%	6.0	20.1%	6.6%	13.4%	3.8%	4.65	4.33	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	169	56	32	100%	6.0	20.1%	6.6%	13.4%	3.8%	4.65	4.33	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		27	25	131	539	105	28	27	93%	4.9	19.6%	5.3%	14.3%	5.1%	4.47	4.89	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	38	200	823	161	43	42	93%	4.9	19.6%	5.3%	14.3%	5.1%	4.47	4.89	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 123 IPFIP 3.82 → 5.16 (+1.34)K% 25.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.29%	—	×0.740	18.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.71%	—	×1.180	5.55%
HR / BF /BF	4.12%	÷1.000	×1.300	5.35%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.82 → 5.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AInland Empire 66ers · 8 IPFIP 0.19 → 0.95 (+0.76)K% 34.5% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.48%	—	×0.740	25.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.180	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.882	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.19 → 0.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Derek Clark (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	19.6%	5.9%	3.5%	—	4.47	20.3%	14.1%	271	-0.03	—	—	—
Colton Gordon L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SP	3.89	20.4%	6.7%	3.0%	.286	4.69	18.3%	13.4%	281	+0.80	2.73	586	80
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	80
Christian Friedrich L 2012 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	19.6%	8.0%	3.3%	.340	3.59	19.0%	10.6%	83	-0.67	3.39	297	79
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	19.4%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.51	17.5%	8.3%	190	+0.30	4.18	539	78
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	78
Nick Bush L 2022 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP	4.76	19.3%	4.3%	5.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	320	77
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	77
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	77
Luke Heimlich L 2019 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	18.2%	7.6%	3.0%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	118	77
Marco Tovar L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP	3.78	17.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.323	4.70	13.0%	6.1%	120	+0.92	3.78	327	76
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	76
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	76
Joe Saunders L 2006 · 3.94 FIP	25	SP	3.94	16.9%	9.3%	2.0%	.300	4.48	13.1%	6.1%	491	+0.54	3.86	1,378	75
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	75
Seth Lonsway L 2024 · 3.35 FIP	25	SP	3.35	16.0%	7.6%	1.2%	.301	4.52	15.2%	3.1%	226	+1.17	3.35	506	73
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	73
Scott Downs L 2000 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP	4.63	14.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	748	73
Austin Warner L 2019 · 5.04 FIP	25	SP	5.04	18.9%	9.0%	4.4%	.313	4.37	19.3%	11.0%	159	-0.67	3.81	491	73
Tim Cooney L 2015 · 3.55 FIP	24	SP	3.55	18.0%	5.1%	2.4%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	120	73
Pete Hansen L 2024 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP	3.85	18.6%	8.5%	2.3%	.346	3.85	17.7%	10.7%	239	-0.00	3.77	480	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	81	20.0%	6.4%	1.42	4.57
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65
Vidal Nuño ('18)	1.9	75	19.6%	6.6%	1.55	4.06
Rich Bordi ('80-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.9	74	20.8%*	7.3%*	1.22*	4.55*
Adam Morgan ('21)	1.8	62	20.8%	7.2%	1.58	4.80
Ron Taylor ('62-'72, 3 WAR*)	4.0	80	17.8%*	6.8%*	1.26*	4.74*
Tom Walker ('72-'77, 1 WAR*)	2.1	83	20.9%*	7.5%*	1.28*	4.32*