Derek Clark — OGILVIE

Derek Clark P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 24 LHP 5'9" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.8 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA4.24

FIP4.24

K%21.5%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%14.6%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	4	4	8	29	10	0	0	100%	2.0	34.5%	0.0%	34.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.19	—
2024	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	4	4	8	29	10	0	0	100%	2.0	34.5%	0.0%	34.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.19	—
2024	22	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	4	4	8	29	10	0	0	100%	2.0	34.5%	0.0%	34.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	23	21	123	510	129	24	21	91%	5.3	18.7%	5.6%	13.2%	5.4%	4.76	5.16	—
YTD	24	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	23	21	123	510	129	24	21	91%	5.3	18.7%	5.6%	13.2%	5.4%	4.76	5.16	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	LAA	23	21	123	510	129	24	21	91%	5.3	25.3%	4.7%	20.6%	4.1%	4.76	3.82	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	LAA	21	21	122	515	113	35	16	100%	5.8	21.9%	6.8%	15.1%	3.1%	4.21	4.18	+1.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	122	515	114	35	16	100%	6.1	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	3.1%	4.19	4.17	+1.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	120	508	112	35	16	100%	6.0	22.1%	7.0%	15.2%	3.1%	4.20	4.21	+1.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	117	492	108	35	16	100%	6.1	22.0%	7.1%	14.9%	3.2%	4.26	4.29	+0.8
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	111	470	102	35	16	100%	5.9	21.8%	7.4%	14.4%	3.4%	4.36	4.42	+0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	105	442	95	34	16	100%	6.2	21.4%	7.7%	13.7%	3.6%	4.51	4.60	+0.4
2033	31	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	98	412	87	33	16	100%	6.1	21.0%	8.0%	13.0%	3.8%	4.69	4.80	+0.1
2034	32	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	90	381	78	32	15	100%	6.0	20.5%	8.4%	12.1%	4.0%	4.89	5.03	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	52	220	48	15	7	100%	5.8	21.9%	6.8%	15.1%	3.1%	4.24	4.21	+0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	81	342	76	23	11	100%	5.8	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	3.1%	4.22	4.20	+0.7
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	93	393	87	27	13	100%	5.8	22.1%	7.0%	15.2%	3.2%	4.23	4.24	+0.8
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	98	414	91	30	14	100%	6.1	22.0%	7.1%	14.9%	3.3%	4.30	4.33	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	97	410	89	30	14	100%	6.1	21.8%	7.4%	14.4%	3.4%	4.40	4.46	+0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	94	397	85	30	14	100%	5.9	21.4%	7.7%	13.7%	3.6%	4.55	4.64	+0.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	89	376	79	30	15	100%	5.9	21.0%	8.0%	13.0%	3.9%	4.73	4.84	+0.1
2034	32	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	84	355	73	30	15	100%	6.0	20.5%	8.4%	12.1%	4.1%	4.93	5.07	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		115	115	688	2906	628	216	101	100%	6.0	21.6%	7.4%	14.2%	3.5%	4.46	4.13	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	182	63	29	100%	6.0	21.6%	7.4%	14.2%	3.5%	4.46	4.13	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		27	25	131	539	105	28	27	93%	4.9	19.6%	5.3%	14.3%	5.1%	4.47	4.89	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	38	200	823	161	43	42	93%	4.9	19.6%	5.3%	14.3%	5.1%	4.47	4.89	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Derek Clark (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.24	21.5%	6.9%	3.1%	—	4.19	22.1%	15.2%	364	-0.05	—	—	—
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	76
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	74
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	71
Tyler Skaggs L 2016 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	26.1%	9.2%	2.1%	.300	3.72	23.0%	15.2%	290	+0.54	3.18	372	71
Parker Mushinski L 2019 · 3.57 FIP	23	SP-	3.57	21.6%	8.2%	2.3%	.303	3.67	23.3%	13.3%	106	+0.10	3.11	455	71
Ryan Rolison L 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP	3.81	21.5%	6.9%	3.0%	.320	5.21	14.5%	9.5%	35	+1.40	3.81	386	71
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	70
Ethan Evanko L 2019 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	16.3%	7.0%	3.1%	.247	5.34	16.3%	8.9%	37	+1.03	3.61	113	69
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	69
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	69
Cristian Castillo L 2019 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP	4.20	17.0%	6.1%	3.2%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	419	69
Aríel Miranda L 2015 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.3%	10.2%	1.1%	.280	5.12	19.2%	10.2%	364	+1.66	3.46	431	69
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	69
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	68
Joe Rock L 2023 · 4.44 FIP	23	SP	4.44	22.1%	8.9%	3.8%	.335	4.16	18.8%	10.4%	289	-0.28	3.82	486	67
Jacob Latz L 2019 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	23.0%	12.6%	1.1%	.222	5.12	22.8%	10.7%	149	+1.77	2.26	473	67
Adam Seminaris L 2023 · 4.01 FIP	24	SP	4.01	19.6%	9.8%	2.4%	.362	3.57	19.3%	12.4%	338	-0.44	3.00	577	67
Anthony Banda L 2018 · 3.40 FIP	24	SP-	3.40	22.3%	9.2%	1.9%	.331	5.02	20.1%	11.2%	112	+1.62	2.89	876	67
Grant Watson L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	16.4%	10.3%	3.0%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	180	67
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	101	21.7%	7.3%	1.30	4.39
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17