Jonaikel Meza

P ACL Guardians

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 154 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL CLE Goryl	15	0	23	3.97	3.32	16.8%	12.9%	—	K 11.4% · BB 16.1% · FIP 4.17
2026	19	ROKCLE	9	2	21	7.59	3.38	22.9%	9.2%	—	K 15.6% · BB 11.5% · FIP 4.65
2027PROJ	20	MLBCLE	12	0	13	5.01	5.01	19.6%	12.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBCLE	10	0	11	4.82	4.75	20.6%	11.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJoangel Gonzalez (age 20) · Luis Alvarado (age 21) · Blake Workman (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%19.6%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%7.2%

Proj IP13

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	12	0	17	80	15	11	1	0%	1.4	12.8%	17.2%	-4.4%	1.7%	1.62	5.16	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	12	0	17	80	15	11	1	0%	1.4	12.8%	17.2%	-4.4%	1.7%	1.62	5.16	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Mendoza	12	0	17	80	15	11	1	0%	1.4	18.8%	13.8%	5.0%	1.2%	1.62	4.06	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	15	0	23	101	17	13	0	0%	1.5	11.4%	16.1%	-4.6%	0.0%	3.97	4.17	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	15	0	23	101	17	13	0	0%	1.5	11.4%	16.1%	-4.6%	0.0%	3.97	4.17	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Goryl	15	0	23	101	17	13	0	0%	1.5	16.8%	12.9%	4.0%	0.0%	3.97	3.32	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	9	2	21	109	25	10	2	22%	2.4	15.6%	11.5%	4.1%	2.6%	7.59	4.65	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	9	2	21	109	25	10	2	22%	2.4	15.6%	11.5%	4.1%	2.6%	7.59	4.65	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	9	2	21	109	25	10	2	22%	2.4	22.9%	9.2%	13.8%	1.8%	7.59	3.38	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	CLE	12	0	13	55	11	7	2	0%	1.1	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	2.9%	5.01	5.01	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	CLE	20	0	21	90	19	10	3	0%	1.1	20.6%	11.2%	9.4%	2.9%	4.82	4.75	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	CLE	10	0	11	46	10	5	1	0%	1.1	20.6%	11.2%	9.4%	2.9%	4.82	4.75	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	44	9	5	1	0%	1.1	20.6%	11.2%	9.4%	2.9%	4.82	4.37	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	95	19	0%	1.1	20.6%	11.2%	9.4%	2.9%	4.82	4.37	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		36	2	61	290	39	42	4	6%	1.7	13.4%	14.7%	-1.3%	1.4%	4.60	4.62	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	7	200	956	128	140	14	6%	1.7	13.4%	14.7%	-1.3%	1.4%	4.60	4.62	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonaikel Meza (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	19.6%	12.4%	2.9%	—	4.75	20.6%	9.4%	21	-0.26	—	—	—
Joangel Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	20	SU	4.23	18.3%	11.7%	2.1%	.312	5.15	18.3%	2.5%	116	+0.92	3.93	151	89
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	86
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	86
Audry Lugo R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.30	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.25	4.05	113	86
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	86
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	86
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	86
Devon Fisher R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	16.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.333	5.76	15.1%	0.9%	88	+1.37	4.39	102	85
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	290	85
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	85
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	84
Carlos Campos R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	20	SU	4.82	20.4%	10.7%	3.8%	.304	5.85	15.3%	8.1%	19	+1.03	4.82	134	84
Yeuris Jimenez R 2021 · 4.42 FIP	20	SU	4.42	16.3%	9.6%	2.7%	.290	4.24	18.1%	4.6%	162	-0.18	3.32	328	84
Nolan Sparks R 2024 · 4.10 FIP	21	SU	4.10	21.8%	13.5%	2.1%	.229	4.72	19.3%	5.3%	140	+0.62	4.10	155	84
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	84
Drew Pestka R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	20	SU	4.26	19.0%	15.1%	1.6%	.298	4.55	18.1%	0.7%	83	+0.29	3.42	100	84
Troy Bacon R 2017 · 3.92 FIP	20	SU	3.92	19.9%	11.7%	1.9%	.222	4.06	19.7%	10.8%	102	+0.14	3.34	203	84
Austin Mason R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	21	SU	4.41	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.289	4.06	16.2%	6.5%	151	-0.35	3.60	179	84
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	83
Brayan Cabello R 2024 · 5.24 FIP	20	SU	5.24	16.1%	12.4%	3.5%	.262	4.19	11.6%	-0.1%	65	-1.05	3.82	152	83