Brayan Cabello — OGILVIE

Brayan Cabello P DSL Giants Black

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 155 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%18.6%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	17	0	25	118	23	16	1	0%	1.5	13.3%	16.9%	-3.7%	1.1%	3.65	4.73	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	17	0	25	118	23	16	1	0%	1.5	19.5%	13.6%	5.9%	0.8%	3.65	3.71	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	13	7	33	152	38	12	2	54%	2.5	17.0%	9.9%	7.1%	1.6%	6.27	3.82	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	13	7	33	152	38	12	2	54%	2.5	17.0%	9.9%	7.1%	1.6%	6.27	3.82	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	13	7	33	152	38	12	2	54%	2.5	25.0%	7.9%	17.1%	1.3%	6.27	2.68	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	17	0	30	131	31	13	3	0%	1.8	16.1%	12.4%	3.7%	3.5%	4.80	5.24	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	17	0	30	131	31	13	3	0%	1.8	16.1%	12.4%	3.7%	3.5%	4.80	5.24	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	17	0	30	131	31	13	3	0%	1.8	23.7%	9.9%	13.7%	2.3%	4.80	3.63	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	16	0	28	118	18	8	2	0%	1.8	10.4%	8.5%	1.9%	2.5%	3.81	4.65	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	16	0	28	118	18	8	2	0%	1.8	10.4%	8.5%	1.9%	2.5%	3.81	4.65	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	16	0	28	118	18	8	2	0%	1.8	15.3%	6.8%	8.5%	1.7%	3.81	3.59	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	19	0	36	140	26	16	0	0%	1.9	12.6%	14.3%	-1.7%	0.0%	1.24	3.84	—
YTD	22	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	19	0	36	140	26	16	0	0%	1.9	12.6%	14.3%	-1.7%	0.0%	1.24	3.84	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	SF	19	0	36	140	26	16	0	0%	1.9	18.6%	11.4%	7.1%	0.0%	1.24	2.98	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SF	35	0	37	156	31	14	5	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.2%	11.0%	2.9%	4.62	4.55	0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	SF	17	0	18	76	15	7	2	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.2%	11.0%	2.9%	4.62	4.55	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	77	15	7	2	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.2%	11.0%	2.9%	4.62	4.17	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	77	22	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.2%	11.0%	2.9%	4.62	4.17	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		82	7	152	659	92	81	11	9%	1.9	14.0%	12.3%	1.7%	1.7%	3.90	4.42	0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	9	200	865	121	107	15	9%	1.9	14.0%	12.3%	1.7%	1.7%	3.90	4.42	0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brayan Cabello (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	18.6%	9.8%	3.0%	—	4.55	20.2%	11.0%	37	-0.23	—	—	—
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	91
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	91
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	89
Justin Lasko R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	22	SU	3.66	17.1%	8.6%	1.7%	.286	4.62	15.8%	8.1%	152	+0.96	3.66	173	89
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	89
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	88
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	88
Tyler Zombro R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	22	SU	4.37	14.6%	8.9%	2.5%	.295	2.67	15.7%	12.7%	134	-1.70	2.22	172	87
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	87
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	87
Andrew Bash R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	22	SU	3.87	18.0%	9.2%	2.1%	.273	4.21	14.9%	4.8%	146	+0.34	3.52	483	87
Reece Karalus R 2016 · 4.80 FIP	22	SU	4.80	18.5%	8.6%	4.0%	.298	4.81	14.8%	4.1%	103	+0.01	4.73	149	87
Jose Geraldo R 2022 · 3.85 FIP	22	SU	3.85	18.9%	9.9%	2.0%	.337	4.47	19.0%	9.9%	49	+0.62	3.14	154	87
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	87
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	86
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	86
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	86
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	86
Logan Lombana R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	22	SU	4.04	16.8%	10.9%	1.8%	.316	4.02	15.4%	8.7%	97	-0.02	3.80	155	86
Geoff Hartlieb R 2016 · 4.87 FIP	22	SU	4.87	15.9%	9.4%	3.5%	.287	3.68	20.7%	11.7%	197	-1.19	3.10	562	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	19.7%	9.4%	1.14	4.67
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97