Geoff Hartlieb

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 33 RHP 6'5" / 240 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MIX2 levels	46	0	63	5.97	4.19	21.8%	9.0%	0.3	K 19.7% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.31
2025	31	MIX2 levels	41	1	57	5.40	3.33	26.9%	9.2%	0.8	K 23.7% · BB 6.8% · FIP 3.03
2026	32	MIX2 levels	45	4	76	3.89	2.96	22.9%	8.9%	1.5	K 20.7% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.15
2027PROJ	33	MLBOAK	51	0	54	3.89	3.81	22.3%	7.6%	0.5
2028PROJ87% MLB	34	MLBOAK	30	0	32	4.02	4.11	21.4%	8.1%	0.2
2029PROJ82% MLB	35	MLBOAK	17	0	18	4.28	4.45	20.4%	8.6%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo61

xwOBA vs57

K%19

Form3.68 ERA (proj 3.89) · K 26.7% (proj 22.3%) · BB 8.3% (proj 7.6%) ▲ last 60d · 15 IP through Oct 27

CompsArcenio Leon (age 32) · Zack Segovia (age 33) · Tony Barnette (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10697vR 89

ERA3.89

FIP3.81

K%22.3%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%14.7%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6195.3

Whiff%

p6227.1%

p1917.7%

xwOBA vs

p570.305

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	22	ROK MLE	Bristol Pirates	16	0	26	120	28	9	3	0%	1.6	15.9%	9.4%	6.5%	3.5%	4.44	4.87	—
2016	22	ROK RAW	Bristol Pirates	16	0	26	120	28	9	3	0%	1.6	23.3%	7.5%	15.8%	2.5%	4.44	3.48	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	64	253	62	14	4	0%	1.6	18.6%	6.4%	12.1%	2.0%	2.12	3.47	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	64	253	62	14	4	0%	1.6	24.5%	5.5%	19.0%	1.6%	2.12	2.63	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	47	0	58	250	56	24	3	0%	1.2	18.1%	10.6%	7.6%	1.7%	3.24	3.83	—
2018	24	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	47	0	58	250	56	24	3	0%	1.2	22.4%	9.6%	12.8%	1.2%	3.24	3.08	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	75	334	88	33	8	0%	1.4	24.6%	10.1%	14.4%	2.6%	5.54	3.73	+0.7
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	75	334	88	33	8	0%	1.4	26.3%	9.9%	16.5%	2.4%	5.54	3.46	+1.0
2020	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	21	0	22	101	19	19	1	0%	1.1	18.8%	18.8%	0.0%	1.1%	3.63	4.48	+0.0
2020	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	21	0	22	101	19	19	1	0%	1.1	18.8%	18.8%	0.0%	1.0%	3.63	4.53	+0.0
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	35	171	38	28	4	0%	1.2	20.2%	16.9%	3.3%	2.0%	5.60	4.60	-0.0
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	35	171	38	28	4	0%	1.2	22.2%	16.4%	5.8%	2.3%	5.60	4.80	-0.1
2022	28	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	40	3	61	265	64	23	8	8%	1.5	21.3%	9.1%	12.1%	3.5%	5.16	4.40	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	40	3	61	265	64	23	8	8%	1.5	24.2%	8.7%	15.5%	3.0%	5.16	3.84	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	49	209	49	21	5	0%	1.3	20.5%	8.4%	12.1%	2.2%	3.51	3.65	+0.5
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	49	209	49	21	5	0%	1.3	23.4%	10.0%	13.4%	2.4%	3.51	3.72	+0.5
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	63	289	63	26	9	0%	1.4	19.7%	8.4%	11.2%	3.3%	5.97	4.31	+0.2
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	63	289	63	26	9	0%	1.4	19.7%	8.4%	11.2%	3.3%	5.97	4.31	+0.2
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	63	289	63	26	9	0%	1.4	21.8%	9.0%	12.8%	3.1%	5.97	4.19	+0.3
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	57	249	67	23	6	2%	1.4	23.7%	6.8%	16.9%	1.9%	5.40	3.03	+1.0
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	57	249	67	23	6	2%	1.4	23.7%	6.8%	16.9%	1.9%	5.40	3.03	+1.0
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	1	57	249	67	23	6	2%	1.4	26.9%	9.2%	17.7%	2.4%	5.40	3.33	+0.8
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	4	76	327	75	29	4	9%	1.7	20.7%	8.4%	12.3%	1.3%	3.89	3.15	+1.3
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	4	76	327	75	29	4	9%	1.7	20.7%	8.4%	12.3%	1.3%	3.89	3.15	+1.3
2026	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	4	76	327	75	29	4	9%	1.7	22.9%	8.9%	14.1%	1.2%	3.89	2.96	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			86	0	111	530	103	74	14	0%	1.3	19.4%	14.0%	5.5%	2.6%	7.16	4.89	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	OAK	51	0	54	228	51	17	5	0%	1.1	22.3%	7.6%	14.7%	2.3%	3.89	3.81	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	OAK	35	0	37	157	34	13	4	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.1%	13.3%	2.6%	4.02	4.11	+0.2
2029	35	MLB MLE	OAK	21	0	22	95	19	8	3	0%	1.1	20.4%	8.6%	11.8%	2.9%	4.28	4.45	+0.0
2030	36	MLB MLE	OAK	12	0	12	52	10	5	2	0%	1.0	19.4%	9.2%	10.1%	3.3%	4.60	4.82	-0.0
2028	34	MLB CTX	OAK	30	0	32	135	29	11	3	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.1%	13.3%	2.6%	4.02	4.11	+0.2
2029	35	MLB CTX	OAK	17	0	18	76	16	7	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	8.6%	11.8%	2.9%	4.28	4.45	+0.0
2030	36	MLB CTX	OAK	9	0	9	38	7	4	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	9.2%	10.1%	3.3%	4.60	4.82	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		143	0	170	782	155	95	21	0%	1.2	19.9%	12.2%	7.7%	2.7%	6.12	4.44	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		168	0	200	918	182	112	25	0%	1.2	19.9%	12.2%	7.7%	2.7%	6.12	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		417	8	587	2568	529	246	59	2%	1.4	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	2.3%	4.43	3.84	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	3	200	875	180	84	20	2%	1.4	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	2.3%	4.43	3.84	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 48 IPFIP 2.64 → 2.94 (+0.30)K% 26.1% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.11%	—	×0.860	22.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.39%	—	×0.900	6.65%
HR / BF /BF	1.48%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.63%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 2.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 53 IPFIP 2.71 → 3.03 (+0.32)K% 27.6% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.56%	—	×0.860	23.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.56%	—	×0.900	6.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.78%	÷1.003	×1.100	1.95%

Result: FIP 2.71 → 3.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 54 IPFIP 4.15 → 4.31 (+0.16)K% 22.9% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.86%	—	×0.860	19.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.39%	—	×0.900	8.45%
HR / BF /BF	3.27%	÷1.096	×1.100	3.28%

Result: FIP 4.15 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 45 IPFIP 3.41 → 3.65 (+0.24)K% 23.8% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.83%	—	×0.860	20.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.33%	—	×0.900	8.39%
HR / BF /BF	2.07%	÷1.031	×1.100	2.21%

Result: FIP 3.41 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 61 IPFIP 3.82 → 4.40 (+0.58)K% 24.2% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.15%	—	×0.880	21.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.68%	—	×1.050	9.11%
HR / BF /BF	3.02%	÷0.939	×1.100	3.54%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 3.82 → 4.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 26 IPFIP 4.67 → 4.70 (+0.03)K% 24.0% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.97%	—	×0.880	21.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.05%	—	×1.050	14.75%
HR / BF /BF	3.31%	÷1.318	×1.100	2.76%

Result: FIP 4.67 → 4.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 40 IPFIP 1.68 → 2.04 (+0.37)K% 30.7% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.67%	—	×0.880	26.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.20%	—	×1.050	9.66%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.953	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.68 → 2.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAltoona Curve · 58 IPFIP 3.08 → 3.83 (+0.74)K% 22.4% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.40%	—	×0.810	18.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.60%	—	×1.100	10.56%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷0.857	×1.200	1.68%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 3.08 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Geoff Hartlieb (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.81	22.3%	7.6%	2.3%	—	4.34	20.7%	12.2%	72	+0.53	—	—	—
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	83
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	83
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	82
Neil Wagner R 2017 · 3.11 FIP	33	SU	3.11	20.7%	8.6%	1.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	135	80
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	79
Joe Nelson R 2008 · 3.08 FIP	33	SU	3.08	26.1%	7.8%	2.2%	.252	5.35	19.8%	5.5%	40	+2.27	3.08	139	79
Akinori Otsuka R 2005 · 3.05 FIP	33	SU	3.05	21.7%	9.4%	1.1%	.278	2.59	19.4%	14.2%	92	-0.46	2.39	232	76
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	75
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	75
Tyler Walker R 2009 · 3.72 FIP	33	SU	3.72	18.0%	5.3%	2.7%	.243	3.77	20.7%	16.6%	35	+0.05	2.38	289	74
Jim Henderson R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	33	SU	4.55	25.8%	9.0%	4.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	167	74
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	74
Tommy Nance R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	33	SU	3.51	20.2%	5.8%	2.5%	.327	2.84	26.3%	19.5%	123	-0.67	2.08	360	73
Spencer Patton R 2021 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	27.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.305	4.97	21.2%	10.4%	88	+1.93	2.79	239	73
Matt Miller R 2005 · 2.67 FIP	33	SU	2.67	19.5%	5.9%	0.9%	.241	4.98	18.5%	4.7%	16	+2.31	2.13	101	73
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	73
Ryan Brasier R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	33	SU	4.85	18.0%	8.0%	4.1%	.286	3.16	23.7%	17.9%	150	-1.69	2.31	426	73
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	71
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	71
Jumbo Diaz R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	33	SU	4.17	20.0%	9.7%	2.8%	.302	2.90	24.2%	15.4%	98	-1.27	2.80	319	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	34	20.5%	11.0%	1.01	5.48
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Denny Bautista ('10)	1.1	45	17.3%	12.7%	0.85	5.89