Geoff Hartlieb
P
Las Vegas Aviators
+0.5
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'5" / 240 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.18
FIP4.18
xFIP8.31
SIERA6.77
K%22.9%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%14.0%
IP48
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL5555
CMD6060
K†6060
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p4524.6%
K%
p2718.8%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
SI (15%)
FB-2.1 (39%)
SL-3.5 (61%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 16 | 0 | 26 | 120 | 28 | 9 | 3 | 15.9% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.44 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Bradenton Marauders | 39 | 0 | 64 | 253 | 62 | 14 | 4 | 18.6% | 6.4% | 2.0% | 2.12 | 3.47 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 47 | 0 | 58 | 250 | 56 | 24 | 3 | 18.1% | 10.6% | 1.7% | 3.24 | 3.83 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 55 | 0 | 75 | 334 | 88 | 33 | 8 | 24.6% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 5.54 | 3.73 | +1.1 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 21 | 0 | 22 | 101 | 19 | 19 | 1 | 18.8% | 18.8% | 1.1% | 3.63 | 4.52 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | New York Mets | 30 | 0 | 35 | 171 | 38 | 28 | 4 | 20.2% | 16.9% | 2.1% | 5.60 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 40 | 3 | 61 | 265 | 64 | 23 | 8 | 21.3% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 5.16 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 37 | 0 | 49 | 209 | 49 | 21 | 5 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.2% | 3.51 | 3.78 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 46 | 0 | 63 | 289 | 63 | 26 | 9 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 5.97 | 4.49 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 41 | 1 | 57 | 249 | 67 | 23 | 6 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 2.0% | 5.40 | 3.13 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 18.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | OAK | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 49 | 16 | 6 | 24.1% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.01 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 49 | 210 | 50 | 16 | 6 | 23.9% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 3.93 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 46 | 16 | 6 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.17 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 42 | 16 | 6 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 22.0% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 35 | 15 | 5 | 21.2% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 373 | 4 | 511 | 2247 | 467 | 228 | 55 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.54 | 3.99 | +7.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 146 | 2 | 200 | 879 | 183 | 89 | 22 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.54 | 3.99 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Geoff Hartlieb (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.01 | 24.1% | 8.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.31 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 131 | +0.30 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Bard R 2029 · 2.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.86 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | 3.60 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.74 | 2.45 | 200 | 85 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 83 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 82 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 77 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.46 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 2.5% | .224 | 7.56 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 25 | +4.10 | 1.85 | 238 | 76 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 76 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 76 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 76 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.77 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .280 | 3.48 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.29 | 3.02 | 363 | 75 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 75 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 75 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 75 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 75 |
| Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.03 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.03 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .305 | 5.07 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.04 | 2.83 | 239 | 74 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.13 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.47 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.34 | 3.13 | 244 | 73 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.54 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .308 | 4.43 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 255 | +0.89 | 3.54 | 348 | 73 |
| Nate Jones R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .279 | 5.52 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +1.44 | 2.61 | 157 | 72 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.08 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.82 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.26 | 3.17 | 272 | 72 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.99 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .291 | 5.41 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 36 | +1.42 | 2.93 | 176 | 72 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.40 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.37 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -1.03 | 2.49 | 373 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.