Geoff Hartlieb
P
Las Vegas Aviators
Age 32
RHP
6'5" / 240 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 55 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10292vR 83
ERA3.61
FIP3.59
K%23.0%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%15.1%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SI (15%)
FB-2.1 (39%)
SL-3.5 (61%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 16 | 0 | 26 | 120 | 28 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 15.9% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 4.44 | 4.87 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 16 | 0 | 26 | 120 | 28 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.3% | 7.5% | 15.8% | 2.5% | 4.44 | 3.48 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 64 | 253 | 62 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.6% | 6.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | 2.12 | 3.50 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 64 | 253 | 62 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 24.5% | 5.5% | 19.0% | 1.6% | 2.12 | 2.63 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 47 | 0 | 58 | 250 | 56 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.1% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 2.0% | 3.24 | 4.01 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 47 | 0 | 58 | 250 | 56 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 1.2% | 3.24 | 3.08 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 75 | 334 | 88 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.6% | 10.1% | 14.4% | 2.4% | 5.54 | 3.63 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 75 | 334 | 88 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.3% | 9.9% | 16.5% | 2.4% | 5.54 | 3.46 | +1.2 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 21 | 0 | 22 | 101 | 19 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 3.63 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 21 | 0 | 22 | 101 | 19 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 3.63 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 35 | 171 | 38 | 28 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.2% | 16.9% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 5.60 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 35 | 171 | 38 | 28 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.2% | 16.4% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 5.60 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 40 | 3 | 61 | 265 | 64 | 23 | 8 | 8% | 1.5 | 21.3% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 3.8% | 5.16 | 4.53 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 40 | 3 | 61 | 265 | 64 | 23 | 8 | 8% | 1.5 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 15.5% | 3.0% | 5.16 | 3.84 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 49 | 209 | 49 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | 3.51 | 3.75 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 49 | 209 | 49 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 2.4% | 3.51 | 3.72 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 63 | 289 | 63 | 26 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 5.97 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 63 | 289 | 63 | 26 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 5.97 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 1 | 57 | 249 | 67 | 23 | 6 | 2% | 1.4 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 16.3% | 1.9% | 5.40 | 3.12 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 1 | 57 | 249 | 67 | 23 | 6 | 2% | 1.4 | 26.9% | 9.2% | 17.7% | 2.4% | 5.40 | 3.33 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Athletics | 23 | 3 | 45 | 193 | 48 | 14 | 4 | 13% | 2.0 | 25.7% | 7.5% | 18.2% | 2.1% | 3.77 | 3.05 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | OAK | 53 | 0 | 55 | 234 | 54 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 7.8% | 15.1% | 2.6% | 3.61 | 3.59 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | OAK | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 53 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 7.8% | 15.1% | 2.6% | 3.61 | 3.59 | +0.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 101 | 427 | 102 | 32 | 10 | — | — | 23.8% | 7.6% | 16.3% | 2.4% | 3.68 | 3.35 | +2.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 64 | 270 | 102 | 32 | 10 | — | — | 37.6% | 12.0% | 25.7% | 3.7% | 5.79 | 3.49 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 56 | 0 | 59 | 248 | 50 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 44 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 48 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 40 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 224 | 0 | 251 | 1118 | 225 | 120 | 34 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 5.45 | 4.41 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 179 | 0 | 200 | 892 | 179 | 96 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 5.45 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 395 | 7 | 556 | 2434 | 515 | 243 | 59 | 2% | 1.4 | 21.2% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 2.4% | 4.45 | 3.90 | +9.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 142 | 3 | 200 | 876 | 185 | 87 | 21 | 2% | 1.4 | 21.2% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 2.4% | 4.45 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Geoff Hartlieb (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.04 | 22.5% | 7.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.61 | 19.9% | 11.2% | 112 | +0.57 | — | — | — |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 83 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 83 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 78 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 78 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 78 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.18 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.51 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.33 | 3.15 | 244 | 78 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 77 |
| Craig Stammen R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.86 | 17.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | .333 | 3.42 | 23.9% | 18.6% | 241 | -0.44 | 1.87 | 407 | 76 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.06 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.22 | 2.63 | 144 | 76 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.15 | 14.7% | 7.2% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 131 | 76 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.66 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.0% | .280 | 3.59 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.07 | 3.07 | 363 | 76 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.77 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.35 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.17 | 225 | 75 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.7% | .338 | 4.07 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.63 | 2.73 | 410 | 75 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 75 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 75 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.34 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.82 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.52 | 2.82 | 316 | 75 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.60 | 20.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.59 | 18.4% | 13.7% | 42 | -0.01 | 2.60 | 283 | 75 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.66 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.24 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.57 | 137 | 75 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 75 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 20.8% | 8.4% | 1.14 | 4.32 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |