Geoff Hartlieb — OGILVIE

Geoff Hartlieb P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 32 RHP 6'5" / 240 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION68 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10395vR 87

ERA3.71

FIP3.68

K%20.9%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%13.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6195.3

Whiff%

p4224.2%

p1013.6%

xwOBA vs

p540.308

SI (15%)

FB-2.1 (39%)

SL-3.5 (61%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	22	ROK MLE	Bristol Pirates	16	0	26	120	28	9	3	0%	1.6	15.9%	9.4%	6.5%	3.5%	4.44	4.87	—
2016	22	ROK RAW	Bristol Pirates	16	0	26	120	28	9	3	0%	1.6	23.3%	7.5%	15.8%	2.5%	4.44	3.48	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	64	253	62	14	4	0%	1.6	18.6%	6.4%	12.1%	2.0%	2.12	3.47	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	64	253	62	14	4	0%	1.6	24.5%	5.5%	19.0%	1.6%	2.12	2.63	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	47	0	58	250	56	24	3	0%	1.2	18.1%	10.6%	7.6%	1.7%	3.24	3.83	—
2018	24	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	47	0	58	250	56	24	3	0%	1.2	22.4%	9.6%	12.8%	1.2%	3.24	3.08	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	75	334	88	33	8	0%	1.4	24.6%	10.1%	14.4%	2.6%	5.54	3.73	+0.7
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	75	334	88	33	8	0%	1.4	26.3%	9.9%	16.5%	2.4%	5.54	3.46	+1.0
2020	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	21	0	22	101	19	19	1	0%	1.1	18.8%	18.8%	0.0%	1.1%	3.63	4.48	+0.0
2020	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	21	0	22	101	19	19	1	0%	1.1	18.8%	18.8%	0.0%	1.0%	3.63	4.53	+0.0
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	35	171	38	28	4	0%	1.2	20.2%	16.9%	3.3%	2.0%	5.60	4.60	-0.0
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	35	171	38	28	4	0%	1.2	22.2%	16.4%	5.8%	2.3%	5.60	4.80	-0.1
2022	28	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	40	3	61	265	64	23	8	8%	1.5	21.3%	9.1%	12.1%	3.5%	5.16	4.40	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	40	3	61	265	64	23	8	8%	1.5	24.2%	8.7%	15.5%	3.0%	5.16	3.84	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	49	209	49	21	5	0%	1.3	19.8%	8.4%	11.4%	2.2%	3.51	3.71	+0.5
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	49	209	49	21	5	0%	1.3	19.8%	8.4%	11.4%	2.2%	3.51	3.71	+0.5
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	49	209	49	21	5	0%	1.3	23.4%	10.0%	13.4%	2.4%	3.51	3.72	+0.5
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	63	289	63	26	9	0%	1.4	19.0%	8.4%	10.5%	3.3%	5.97	4.37	+0.1
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	63	289	63	26	9	0%	1.4	19.0%	8.4%	10.5%	3.3%	5.97	4.37	+0.1
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	63	289	63	26	9	0%	1.4	21.8%	9.0%	12.8%	3.1%	5.97	4.19	+0.3
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	57	249	67	23	6	2%	1.4	22.9%	6.8%	16.1%	1.9%	5.40	3.10	+1.0
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	57	249	67	23	6	2%	1.4	22.9%	6.8%	16.1%	1.9%	5.40	3.10	+1.0
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	1	57	249	67	23	6	2%	1.4	26.9%	9.2%	17.7%	2.4%	5.40	3.33	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			80	0	102	494	93	70	14	0%	1.3	18.8%	14.2%	4.7%	2.8%	7.30	5.11	-0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Athletics	39	4	68	291	65	25	4	10%	1.7	19.2%	8.1%	11.2%	1.5%	3.71	3.31	—
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Athletics	39	4	68	291	65	25	4	10%	1.7	19.2%	8.1%	11.2%	1.5%	3.71	3.31	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	AAA RAW	OAK	27	4	48	203	53	15	3	15%	1.8	26.1%	7.4%	18.7%	1.5%	3.35	2.64	—
2026	32	MLB RAW	OAK	12	0	20	88	12	10	1	0%	1.6	13.6%	11.4%	2.3%	1.1%	4.58	4.01	+0.1
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	OAK	12	0	20	88	12	10	1	0%	1.6	13.6%	11.4%	2.3%	1.1%	4.58	4.01	+0.1
ROS	32	MLB MLE	OAK	5	0	5	23	5	2	1	0%	1.1	20.9%	7.0%	13.8%	2.6%	3.71	3.68	+0.1
ROS	32	MLB CTX	OAK	5	0	5	21	4	1	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	7.0%	13.8%	2.6%	3.71	3.68	+0.1
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	73	314	70	27	5	—	—	22.2%	8.5%	13.8%	1.5%	3.71	3.34	+1.2
FULL	32	MLB A+C	OAK	—	—	25	106	70	27	5	—	—	65.9%	25.1%	40.8%	4.4%	10.86	3.11	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	OAK	56	0	59	248	47	20	7	0%	1.0	18.9%	8.2%	10.7%	2.7%	4.32	4.42	+0.1
2028	34	MLB MLE	OAK	51	0	53	225	41	20	7	0%	1.0	18.0%	8.6%	9.3%	3.0%	4.56	4.73	-0.1
2027	33	MLB CTX	OAK	53	0	56	236	45	19	6	0%	1.1	18.9%	8.2%	10.7%	2.7%	4.32	4.42	+0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	OAK	46	0	48	203	36	18	6	0%	1.0	18.0%	8.6%	9.3%	3.0%	4.56	4.73	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		184	0	212	956	179	108	27	0%	1.2	18.7%	11.3%	7.4%	2.8%	5.80	4.52	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		174	0	200	903	169	102	25	0%	1.1	18.7%	11.3%	7.4%	2.8%	5.80	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		411	8	578	2532	512	242	59	2%	1.4	20.2%	9.6%	10.7%	2.3%	4.42	3.89	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	3	200	876	177	84	21	2%	1.4	20.2%	9.6%	10.7%	2.3%	4.42	3.89	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Geoff Hartlieb (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.00	21.5%	6.8%	2.7%	—	4.57	18.5%	10.1%	112	+0.57	—	—	—
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	83
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	81
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	77
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	77
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	77
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	77
Bryan Morris R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	30	SU	3.60	16.0%	9.6%	1.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	102	76
Matt Albers R 2015 · 3.19 FIP	32	SU	3.19	18.8%	4.7%	2.0%	.252	4.45	20.4%	13.3%	147	+1.26	3.15	244	76
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	76
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	76
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	76
Daniel Bard R 2020 · 2.82 FIP	35	SU	2.82	25.5%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	3.63	25.3%	12.0%	175	+0.81	2.56	200	75
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	75
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	75
Jonathan Broxton R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	22.0%	7.3%	2.9%	.256	4.34	20.5%	9.0%	16	+0.57	3.67	137	75
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	75
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	74
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	74
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	74
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	19.6%	7.8%	1.09	4.29
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47