Manuel Colon

P ACL Royals

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 148 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	17	ROKDSL Royals Fo…	8	12	8.49	3.61	25.0%	12.5%	—	K 17.0% · BB 15.6% · FIP 4.71
2025	18	ROKDSL Royals Ve…	11	29	1.26	1.39	29.9%	6.0%	—	K 20.3% · BB 7.5% · FIP 2.33
2026	19	MIX2 levels	30	37	6.99	3.02	26.6%	12.1%	—	K 18.4% · BB 14.8% · FIP 4.27
2027PROJ	20	MLBPHI	18	19	4.91	4.91	20.4%	12.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBPHI	16	17	4.74	4.67	21.1%	11.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsLuis Alvarado (age 21) · Blake Workman (age 20) · Jordan Mikel (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%20.4%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%8.0%

Proj IP19

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	8	0	12	56	14	7	1	0%	1.5	17.0%	15.6%	1.4%	1.9%	8.49	4.71	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	8	0	12	56	14	7	1	0%	1.5	17.0%	15.6%	1.4%	1.9%	8.49	4.71	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Fortuna	8	0	12	56	14	7	1	0%	1.5	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	1.8%	8.49	3.61	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	0	29	117	35	7	0	0%	2.6	20.3%	7.5%	12.9%	0.0%	1.26	2.33	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	0	29	117	35	7	0	0%	2.6	20.3%	7.5%	12.9%	0.0%	1.26	2.33	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	11	0	29	117	35	7	0	0%	2.6	29.9%	6.0%	23.9%	0.0%	1.26	1.39	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	37	173	46	21	2	0%	1.2	18.4%	14.8%	3.7%	1.6%	6.99	4.27	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	37	173	46	21	2	0%	1.2	18.4%	14.8%	3.7%	1.6%	6.99	4.27	—
2026	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	37	173	46	21	2	0%	1.2	26.6%	12.1%	14.5%	1.2%	6.99	3.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	PHI	18	0	19	80	16	10	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.4%	8.0%	2.9%	4.91	4.91	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	PHI	34	0	35	149	32	17	4	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	2.8%	4.74	4.67	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	PHI	16	0	17	72	15	8	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	2.8%	4.74	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	17	73	15	8	2	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	2.8%	4.74	4.29	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	92	23	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	2.8%	4.74	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		49	0	78	346	65	43	4	0%	1.6	18.8%	12.4%	6.4%	1.1%	5.10	3.69	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	0	200	891	168	111	10	0%	1.6	18.8%	12.4%	6.4%	1.1%	5.10	3.69	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Colon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	20.4%	12.4%	2.9%	—	4.67	21.1%	9.9%	35	-0.24	—	—	—
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	89
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	88
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	88
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	88
Nolan Sparks R 2024 · 4.10 FIP	21	SU	4.10	21.8%	13.5%	2.1%	.229	4.72	19.3%	5.3%	140	+0.62	4.10	155	87
Troy Bacon R 2017 · 3.92 FIP	20	SU	3.92	19.9%	11.7%	1.9%	.222	4.06	19.7%	10.8%	102	+0.14	3.34	203	87
Austin Mason R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	21	SU	4.41	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.289	4.06	16.2%	6.5%	151	-0.35	3.60	179	87
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	87
Audry Lugo R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.30	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.25	4.05	113	86
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	86
Ty Tice R 2017 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	22.2%	12.9%	2.6%	.271	3.53	19.4%	8.3%	108	-0.76	3.24	288	86
Augusto Calderon R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	20	SU	4.24	21.2%	12.6%	2.4%	.226	4.35	18.2%	5.9%	126	+0.11	3.58	208	86
Aneudy Duarte R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	20	SU	4.79	17.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	102	86
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	86
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	86
Devon Fisher R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	16.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.333	5.76	15.1%	0.9%	88	+1.37	4.39	102	86
Samuel Carpio R 2024 · 4.20 FIP	21	SU	4.20	21.2%	15.3%	1.7%	.300	5.36	21.6%	-3.4%	112	+1.16	4.20	134	86
David Matoma R 2024 · 3.81 FIP	18	SU	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	1.7%	.259	5.70	15.7%	-5.9%	79	+1.89	3.58	118	86
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	20	SU	4.14	25.1%	13.3%	2.7%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.85	3.21	104	85
Evan Phillips R 2015 · 3.96 FIP	20	SU	3.96	21.4%	13.7%	1.7%	.300	3.85	22.0%	10.7%	177	-0.11	1.52	522	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	20.9%	11.6%	1.10	4.80
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76