Manuel Colon — OGILVIE

Manuel Colon P ACL Royals

Age 19 RHP 5'11" / 148 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%22.0%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	8	0	12	56	14	7	1	0%	1.5	17.0%	15.6%	1.4%	1.9%	8.49	4.71	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	8	0	12	56	14	7	1	0%	1.5	17.0%	15.6%	1.4%	1.9%	8.49	4.71	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Fortuna	8	0	12	56	14	7	1	0%	1.5	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	1.8%	8.49	3.61	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	0	29	117	35	7	0	0%	2.6	20.3%	7.5%	12.9%	0.0%	1.26	2.33	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	0	29	117	35	7	0	0%	2.6	20.3%	7.5%	12.9%	0.0%	1.26	2.33	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	11	0	29	117	35	7	0	0%	2.6	29.9%	6.0%	23.9%	0.0%	1.26	1.39	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	30	0	37	173	46	21	2	0%	1.2	18.4%	14.8%	3.7%	1.6%	6.99	4.27	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	30	0	37	173	46	21	2	0%	1.2	18.4%	14.8%	3.7%	1.6%	6.99	4.27	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	PHI	20	0	27	118	36	11	1	0%	1.4	30.5%	9.3%	21.2%	0.8%	5.60	2.17	—
2026	19	A RAW	PHI	10	0	10	55	10	10	1	0%	1.0	18.2%	18.2%	0.0%	1.8%	10.80	4.87	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	PHI	37	0	38	162	37	14	5	0%	1.0	22.6%	8.8%	13.8%	2.8%	4.29	4.25	+0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	PHI	18	0	19	80	18	7	2	0%	1.1	22.6%	8.8%	13.8%	2.8%	4.29	4.25	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	80	18	7	2	0%	1.0	22.6%	8.8%	13.8%	2.8%	4.29	3.87	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	74	21	0%	1.1	22.6%	8.8%	13.8%	2.8%	4.29	3.87	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		49	0	78	346	65	43	4	0%	1.6	18.8%	12.4%	6.4%	1.1%	5.10	3.69	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	0	200	891	168	111	10	0%	1.6	18.8%	12.4%	6.4%	1.1%	5.10	3.69	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Colon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	22.0%	9.1%	2.9%	—	4.25	22.6%	13.8%	38	-0.11	—	—	—
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	88
Osiris German R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	19	SU	4.26	20.6%	8.7%	3.3%	.346	3.15	26.3%	15.5%	59	-1.11	3.11	187	87
Matt Walker R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	20	SU	3.21	24.8%	10.3%	1.7%	.326	3.74	19.1%	9.8%	178	+0.53	2.42	211	86
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	86
Harold Cortijo R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	18	SU	4.46	19.1%	9.8%	3.1%	.309	5.64	13.5%	2.2%	73	+1.18	4.15	179	86
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	85
Jeff Bain R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	21	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.339	4.22	19.1%	10.7%	274	+0.28	3.35	475	85
Yoel Diaz R 2018 · 3.26 FIP	19	SU	3.26	20.5%	9.7%	1.2%	.268	4.63	14.5%	-3.9%	42	+1.37	3.26	143	84
Danny Dopico R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.90	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.03	3.00	318	84
Robinson Hernandez R 2019 · 3.38 FIP	20	SU	3.38	19.6%	9.0%	1.4%	.328	4.41	17.5%	7.0%	102	+1.03	2.63	166	84
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	84
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	84
Sean Boyle R 2018 · 4.70 FIP	21	SU	4.70	21.3%	7.8%	4.4%	.342	2.87	22.6%	15.3%	86	-1.83	2.87	543	84
Collin Kober R 2017 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	21.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.268	2.76	24.0%	17.9%	128	-0.63	2.38	294	83
Scott Williams R 2015 · 3.39 FIP	21	SU	3.39	22.0%	8.6%	1.9%	.238	3.73	19.3%	10.5%	76	+0.34	2.89	119	83
Felix Castro R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	19	SU	3.52	24.0%	12.2%	1.6%	.295	4.94	14.9%	-1.8%	97	+1.42	3.52	144	83
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	83
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	83
Alexander Campos R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	17.0%	6.0%	3.0%	.281	4.66	11.1%	6.0%	135	+0.61	4.02	157	82
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	22.4%	8.9%	1.11	4.31
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42