Tanner Smith — OGILVIE

Tanner Smith P Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 245 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 90 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%22.9%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP90

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4555

CMD3040

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	2	37	169	52	18	0	8%	1.5	19.6%	14.4%	5.2%	0.0%	3.38	3.27	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	2	37	169	52	18	0	8%	1.5	19.6%	14.4%	5.2%	0.0%	3.38	3.27	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	2	37	169	52	18	0	8%	1.5	30.8%	10.7%	20.1%	0.0%	3.38	1.76	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BAL	86	0	90	380	87	52	11	0%	1.0	22.9%	13.7%	9.2%	2.9%	4.87	4.87	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	87	0	91	385	90	48	11	0%	1.0	23.3%	12.4%	10.9%	2.9%	4.73	4.67	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	87	0	91	385	90	46	11	0%	1.0	23.4%	12.0%	11.4%	2.9%	4.65	4.62	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	85	0	90	379	88	45	11	0%	1.1	23.3%	11.9%	11.5%	3.0%	4.63	4.64	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	83	0	87	367	85	44	11	0%	1.0	23.2%	11.9%	11.2%	3.1%	4.67	4.71	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	BAL	79	0	83	351	80	43	11	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.2%	10.8%	3.2%	4.77	4.84	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	BAL	74	0	78	330	81	38	11	0%	1.1	24.6%	11.7%	12.9%	3.4%	4.76	4.75	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	37	0	39	165	38	20	5	0%	1.1	23.3%	12.4%	10.9%	2.9%	4.73	4.67	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	57	0	60	253	59	30	7	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.0%	11.4%	2.9%	4.65	4.62	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	66	0	69	291	68	35	9	0%	1.0	23.3%	11.9%	11.5%	3.0%	4.63	4.64	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	70	0	73	308	71	37	9	0%	1.0	23.2%	11.9%	11.2%	3.1%	4.67	4.71	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	BAL	70	0	73	308	71	37	10	0%	1.0	22.9%	12.2%	10.8%	3.2%	4.77	4.84	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	BAL	67	0	70	296	73	34	10	0%	1.0	24.6%	11.7%	12.9%	3.4%	4.76	4.75	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		366	0	385	1624	381	194	50	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.0%	11.5%	3.1%	4.70	4.33	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	101	26	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.0%	11.5%	3.1%	4.70	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		25	2	37	169	33	24	0	8%	1.5	19.6%	14.4%	5.2%	0.0%	3.38	3.27	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	11	200	905	178	131	0	8%	1.5	19.6%	14.4%	5.2%	0.0%	3.38	3.27	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	22.9%	13.7%	2.9%	—	4.64	23.3%	11.2%	272	-0.23	—	—	—
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	88
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	88
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	87
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	86
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	86
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	85
Mason Vinyard R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.7%	13.6%	1.5%	.270	4.67	19.3%	6.0%	147	+0.94	3.60	207	85
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	85
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	85
Pat Light R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.37	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.03	4.10	172	84
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	84
Daniel Webb R 2014 · 4.12 FIP	24	SU	4.12	19.6%	12.5%	2.0%	.272	4.56	15.7%	2.3%	58	+0.44	4.12	126	84
Johnny Barbato R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.4%	11.2%	2.0%	.282	4.66	21.1%	11.6%	105	+0.93	2.59	304	84
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	84
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.17	28.8%	15.2%	112	-0.85	3.14	173	83
Zach Jackson R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	24	SU	5.01	20.8%	12.4%	3.8%	.261	2.42	33.6%	19.6%	76	-2.59	2.33	309	83
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	83
James McDonald R 2009 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.3%	10.4%	2.1%	.283	4.16	20.4%	11.3%	414	+0.20	2.99	506	83
Luis Ramirez R 2016 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	104	83
Tanner Jacobson R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	24	SU	5.22	20.9%	12.9%	4.1%	.261	4.47	21.4%	2.1%	51	-0.75	4.09	168	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,251 pitcher careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	23.4%	12.3%	1.18	4.72
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Jeff Juden ('99)	2.7	107	18.8%	10.5%	1.23	4.81
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11