Yael Arias — OGILVIE

Yael Arias P DSL Phillies White

Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 176 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 11 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.16

FIP5.16

K%21.8%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%7.0%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	14	7	34	161	34	16	4	50%	2.4	14.4%	12.4%	1.9%	3.8%	6.62	5.55	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	14	7	34	161	34	16	4	50%	2.4	14.4%	12.4%	1.9%	3.8%	6.62	5.55	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	14	7	34	161	34	16	4	50%	2.4	21.1%	9.9%	11.2%	2.5%	6.62	4.04	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	8	0	13	65	15	13	1	0%	1.6	15.7%	25.0%	-9.3%	2.6%	9.24	6.34	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	8	0	13	65	15	13	1	0%	1.6	15.7%	25.0%	-9.3%	2.6%	9.24	6.34	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	8	0	13	65	15	13	1	0%	1.6	23.1%	20.0%	3.1%	1.5%	9.24	4.84	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	PHI	10	0	11	46	10	7	1	0%	1.1	21.8%	14.8%	7.0%	3.0%	5.16	5.16	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	PHI	19	0	20	84	19	11	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	12.9%	9.8%	3.0%	4.92	4.82	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	PHI	10	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	12.9%	9.8%	3.0%	4.92	4.82	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.1	22.7%	12.9%	9.8%	3.0%	4.92	4.44	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	102	20	0%	1.1	22.7%	12.9%	9.8%	3.0%	4.92	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		22	7	47	226	33	36	8	32%	2.1	14.7%	16.0%	-1.3%	3.4%	7.33	5.78	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		94	30	200	969	143	155	33	32%	2.1	14.7%	16.0%	-1.3%	3.4%	7.33	5.78	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yael Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.16	21.8%	14.8%	3.0%	—	4.82	22.7%	9.8%	20	-0.34	—	—	—
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	89
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	82
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	82
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	81
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	81
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	80
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	80
Victor Simeon R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	22	SW	5.53	20.3%	15.7%	3.9%	.333	3.87	25.6%	5.4%	81	-1.66	3.22	180	80
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	79
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	78
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	78
Eiberson Castellano R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SW	4.25	18.3%	14.1%	1.7%	.359	4.06	20.9%	10.6%	251	-0.19	3.67	386	78
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.15	27.7%	17.2%	182	-1.97	1.84	247	78
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	78
Rafael Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	20	SW	4.11	21.8%	16.3%	1.4%	.303	5.08	15.7%	-4.4%	82	+0.97	3.42	162	78
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	77
Cre Finfrock R 2018 · 4.27 FIP	22	SW	4.27	17.9%	16.5%	1.1%	.286	4.63	23.0%	11.3%	38	+0.36	4.27	103	77
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	76
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	76
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	76