Jhon Rosario — OGILVIE

Jhon Rosario P Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 22 RHP 5'10" / 180 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 15 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.58

FIP5.58

K%16.2%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%2.1%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	8	0	16	69	16	9	0	0%	2.0	15.8%	16.3%	-0.5%	0.0%	2.30	3.83	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	8	0	16	69	16	9	0	0%	2.0	15.8%	16.3%	-0.5%	0.0%	2.30	3.83	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	8	0	16	69	16	9	0	0%	2.0	23.2%	13.0%	10.1%	0.0%	2.30	2.78	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	15	0	25	127	22	11	0	0%	1.7	11.8%	10.8%	1.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.48	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	15	0	25	127	22	11	0	0%	1.7	11.8%	10.8%	1.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.48	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	15	0	25	127	22	11	0	0%	1.7	17.3%	8.7%	8.7%	0.0%	5.40	2.66	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	36	184	35	23	5	0%	1.6	10.6%	17.0%	-6.3%	4.7%	8.67	6.92	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	36	184	35	23	5	0%	1.6	10.6%	17.0%	-6.3%	4.7%	8.67	6.92	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	36	184	35	23	5	0%	1.6	19.0%	12.5%	6.5%	2.7%	8.67	4.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CHC	14	0	15	63	10	9	2	0%	1.1	16.2%	14.0%	2.1%	3.1%	5.58	5.58	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CHC	32	0	34	143	26	18	4	0%	1.1	18.3%	12.3%	6.0%	3.0%	5.27	5.15	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	CHC	16	0	17	72	13	9	2	0%	1.1	18.3%	12.3%	6.0%	3.0%	5.27	5.15	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	70	13	9	2	0%	1.0	18.3%	12.3%	6.0%	3.0%	5.27	4.77	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	108	24	0%	1.1	18.3%	12.3%	6.0%	3.0%	5.27	4.77	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		46	0	77	380	45	56	9	0%	1.7	12.0%	14.8%	-2.8%	2.3%	6.31	5.21	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	0	200	987	118	146	22	0%	1.7	12.0%	14.8%	-2.8%	2.3%	6.31	5.21	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jhon Rosario (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.58	16.2%	14.0%	3.1%	—	5.15	18.3%	6.0%	34	-0.43	—	—	—
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	92
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	90
Fabian Anguamea R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	16.6%	15.2%	2.7%	.295	4.53	15.8%	1.8%	96	-0.58	3.99	164	90
Randy Messenger R 2005 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	16.3%	12.9%	2.8%	.281	3.93	13.8%	7.1%	137	-0.97	3.56	174	89
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	88
Brooks Crawford R 2019 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	14.9%	13.7%	2.2%	.262	3.56	22.1%	14.5%	103	-1.22	2.50	296	88
Cole Ayers R 2022 · 5.58 FIP	22	SU	5.58	13.0%	15.4%	2.9%	.305	4.01	21.2%	10.1%	152	-1.57	3.58	171	88
Justin Kelly R 2021 · 5.93 FIP	22	SU	5.93	15.5%	14.3%	4.2%	.259	4.93	15.4%	6.8%	149	-1.00	3.17	196	88
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	88
Julio Mateo R 2002 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	16.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.277	4.23	17.5%	13.8%	232	-0.31	3.42	318	88
Jason Ruffcorn R 2021 · 4.74 FIP	23	SU	4.74	16.6%	14.2%	2.3%	.297	4.69	17.6%	4.2%	136	-0.05	4.01	283	87
Nick Kuzia R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	21	SU	5.18	16.5%	15.2%	2.8%	.361	5.35	17.6%	6.6%	60	+0.17	4.54	231	87
Lendy Castillo R 2012 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	14.8%	13.6%	2.4%	.361	4.81	13.9%	1.0%	49	-0.07	4.41	116	87
Jake Bird R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	22	SU	4.59	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.254	3.65	16.1%	4.9%	156	-0.94	3.06	525	87
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	86
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	86
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	86
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	86
Jacinto Arredondo R 2021 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	14.4%	12.7%	2.6%	.310	4.89	15.7%	5.0%	50	-0.04	4.89	101	86
Carson Hobbs R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	22	SU	5.63	18.9%	13.6%	4.4%	.303	3.97	22.0%	10.4%	118	-1.66	3.54	143	86