Matt King — OGILVIE

Matt KingSS Altoona Curve

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 195 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION227 act + 151 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†77

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .313 / .305

PA151

HR1

SB5

K%23

BB%8

BABIP302

ISO74

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 63 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT63

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED64

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.6M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$7M		$28M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A+	2 teams	—	39	34	4	2	0	0	2	7	2	1	0	118	211	176	387	59	148	18	5	192	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	2 teams	—	39	33	5	3	0	0	3	5	2	1	0	152	263	242	506	91	179	13	8	237	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AA	PIT	—	227	191	46	4	0	0	19	42	11	14	1	241	344	262	606	21	301	19	8	273	67	-8	+2	+0	+2	+6	0.3
YTD	23	AA	PIT	—	227	177	44	4	0	0	28	32	11	14	1	249	376	271	647	23	295	14	12	304	91	-2	+2	+0	+2	+6	0.9
ROS	23	AA	PIT	2%	151	134	31	5	1	1	12	35	4	5	1	231	313	305	618	74	300	23	8	286	77	-4	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.3
ROS	23	MLB	PIT	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						299	33	0	266	61	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	AA	PIT	—	230	194	46	4	0	0	19	43	11	14	1	237	339	258	597	21	297	19	8	273	67	-9	+2	+0	+2	+7	0.3
TOT	23	AA	PIT	—	378	325	77	9	1	1	31	77	15	19	2	237	331	280	611	43	301	20	8	278	71	-12	+3	+0	+4	+11	0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	PIT	31%	314	279	66	11	1	4	25	72	7	9	1	237	315	326	641	90	300	23	8	292	82	-7	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.7
2028	25	MLB	PIT	45%	373	332	80	13	2	6	30	85	8	10	2	241	319	346	665	105	299	23	8	297	85	-6	+1	+0	+4	+11	1.0
2029	26	MLB	PIT	51%	409	365	87	14	2	7	33	93	8	11	2	238	315	345	660	107	299	23	8	299	87	-6	+1	+0	+4	+12	1.2
2030	27	MLB	PIT	53%	420	374	89	15	2	7	35	96	8	12	2	238	317	345	661	107	299	23	8	300	88	-6	+2	+0	+4	+12	1.2
2031	28	MLB	PIT	53%	424	376	90	15	2	7	36	98	9	11	2	239	321	346	666	106	299	23	8	299	87	-6	+1	-1	+5	+12	1.1
2032	29	MLB	PIT	53%	418	372	89	15	2	7	35	97	8	10	1	239	318	347	665	108	298	23	8	297	86	-7	+2	-1	+4	+12	1.0
2033	30	MLB	PIT	52%	413	367	86	14	2	6	35	97	8	9	1	234	315	332	647	98	298	23	8	295	84	-8	+1	-2	+4	+12	0.8
2027	24	MLB	PIT	31%	97	87	19	3	0	1	8	22	2	3	0	218	299	287	586	69	298	23	8	275	69	-3	+1	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2028	25	MLB	PIT	45%	166	149	35	6	1	2	13	38	3	5	1	235	309	329	638	94	298	23	8	280	73	-5	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2029	26	MLB	PIT	51%	208	185	43	7	1	3	17	47	4	6	1	232	311	330	640	97	298	23	8	283	75	-6	+1	+0	+2	+6	0.3
2030	27	MLB	PIT	53%	221	197	47	8	1	4	18	51	4	6	1	239	315	350	665	112	298	23	8	284	76	-6	+1	+0	+2	+6	0.3
2031	28	MLB	PIT	53%	226	200	48	8	1	4	19	52	5	6	1	240	321	350	671	110	297	23	8	283	75	-6	+1	-0	+2	+6	0.3
2032	29	MLB	PIT	53%	220	195	46	8	1	3	19	51	4	5	1	236	317	333	650	97	297	23	9	282	74	-7	+1	-1	+2	+6	0.2
2033	30	MLB	PIT	52%	215	191	44	7	1	3	18	50	4	5	1	230	310	325	634	94	296	23	8	279	72	-7	+1	-1	+2	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1356	1207	282	47	6	20	112	312	26	36	6	234	312	332	644	99	297	23	8	281	74	-41	+5	-2	+15	+38	1.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	136	23	3	10	54	150	12	17	3	235	313	337	650	102	299	23	8	281	74	-19	+2	-1	+7	+18	0.7
Career	—			—	2961	2633	622	104	14	45	243	680	62	78	12	236	315	338	653	101	300	23	8	295	84	-53	+11	-4	+32	+84	7.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	137	23	3	10	53	149	14	17	3	237	316	339	655	102	301	23	8	295	84	-12	+2	-1	+7	+18	1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	21	21	4	3	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	190	190	333	524	143	211	10	0	227	32	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	22	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	18	12	1	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	0	83	353	83	436		111	17	17	248	48	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#6Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	6	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	4	44	247	316	328	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,356	21	35	237	313	339	+15	+9	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	10	17	237	313	339	+7.1	+4.4	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt King (OGILVIE)	23	58→63	28→33	59→64	55	237/331/280	43	301	1	19	20%	8%	71	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Kelby Tomlinson 2012 · A	22	49→59	40	56→60	44	236/285/341	105	298	6	13	22%	6%	73	-0.1	220/276/279	59	297	2	21	25%	7%	53	-1.5	281/340/350	69	342	3	24	17%	7%	94	+1.0
✕Ali Castillo 2012 · A	23	51→61	38→40	54→55	51	239/297/334	95	271	3	13	13%	7%	76	+0.1	237/288/314	77	283	5	13	17%	6%	68	-0.5	266/300/321	56	308	2	21	14%	4%	70	-0.2
✕Osleivis Basabe 2023 · AA	22	57→61	39→45	56→50	46	268/314/370	102	319	5	17	17%	6%	92	+1.2	244/289/350	106	296	8	13	20%	5%	77	+0.1	231/277/341	111	278	10	11	20%	5%	68	-0.4
✕Myles Straw 2018 · AA	23	56→60	35→40	55→60	50	256/321/320	64	339	1	21	23%	9%	83	+0.6	256/320/316	60	336	2	36	22%	8%	82	+0.5	267/338/329	62	341	2	39	20%	9%	89	+0.9
✕Corey Toups 2016 · A	23	49	41→45	56→50	45	232/292/338	106	306	6	17	25%	7%	76	+0.0	212/271/329	117	302	10	16	31%	6%	66	-0.6	199/260/315	116	290	10	16	33%	6%	55	-1.0
✕P.J. Higgins 2016 · A	23	44→54	42→45	54→40	42	215/263/322	108	284	8	8	27%	6%	59	-1.1	228/299/300	72	289	3	4	20%	8%	69	-0.4	239/302/362	123	304	13	3	24%	8%	85	+0.5
✕Mauricio Dubón 2017 · AA	23	54→58	39→50	55	45	257/298/346	89	306	5	20	18%	5%	79	+0.3	243/279/346	103	291	9	22	19%	5%	72	-0.2	259/306/396	137	295	16	11	18%	5%	93	+0.9
✕Marc Maddox 2007 · A	23	52→55	40	54→50	49	245/307/351	107	294	5	7	18%	7%	85	+0.7	234/289/313	79	288	4	10	19%	6%	68	-0.5	224/287/301	78	272	5	10	18%	7%	61	-0.6
✕Marty Costes 2019 · A	23	47→57	42→45	53→50	46	227/308/340	113	280	8	11	21%	6%	85	+0.7	234/311/346	112	288	10	10	21%	8%	87	+0.8	249/337/364	115	324	9	16	23%	9%	100	+0.8
✕Iván De Jesús Jr. 2010 · AA	23	58→65	40	51→50	51	274/338/365	92	331	7	12	19%	8%	102	+1.9	231/276/308	77	294	5	7	22%	5%	61	-1.0	263/314/359	97	350	5	4	25%	6%	88	+0.6
✕Danny Worth 2009 · AA	23	47→52	42→45	56→50	45	228/284/339	111	293	8	12	24%	7%	72	-0.2	218/268/306	88	291	6	13	26%	6%	57	-1.2	225/289/335	110	294	10	18	25%	7%	71	-0.1
●Nick Van Stratten 2008 · A	23	49→59	41→45	58→55	50	234/296/339	105	259	6	12	13%	6%	78	+0.2	255/309/353	98	303	5	12	17%	6%	86	+0.8	302/337/386	84	339	4	23	12%	4%	102	+0.8
✕Tyler Pastornicky 2013 · MLB	23	52→61	42→45	51→60	47	252/295/358	106	287	9	17	16%	6%	82	+0.5	247/289/330	83	292	6	12	17%	5%	72	-0.2	249/291/316	66	293	4	10	16%	5%	65	-0.4
✕Tony Renda 2014 · A	23	49→58	39→40	53→50	50	231/290/323	91	268	4	15	15%	7%	71	-0.3	250/301/326	76	292	3	16	15%	6%	76	+0.1	261/308/333	72	301	2	17	13%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Adalberto Santos 2012 · A	24	49→53	42→45	60→55	48	238/296/355	118	285	8	21	19%	7%	82	+0.5	249/310/347	98	316	7	20	22%	7%	85	+0.7	253/316/343	90	328	6	21	23%	8%	84	+0.3
✕Logan Watkins 2013 · AA	23	51→52	40	57→55	48	239/304/337	98	309	6	17	24%	8%	81	+0.4	214/270/306	92	286	7	18	26%	7%	59	-1.1	224/279/299	75	286	3	17	22%	6%	58	-0.6
✕Evan Frey 2009 · A	23	55→59	37→40	56→55	50	259/319/341	81	318	3	19	19%	8%	87	+0.8	246/305/314	68	309	2	22	19%	7%	75	-0.0	239/301/301	61	304	1	24	20%	7%	67	-0.5
✕Brendan Ryan 2006 · AA	24	53→61	40	54→55	48	254/300/351	98	292	5	14	15%	6%	82	+0.5	245/292/330	85	284	6	17	15%	6%	73	-0.1	259/310/346	87	299	5	20	14%	6%	81	+0.3
✕Sean Godfrey 2015 · A	23	51→46	41→45	57→55	37	244/278/354	110	315	7	17	25%	3%	74	-0.1	225/254/323	98	290	8	13	24%	3%	55	-1.4	220/243/312	92	279	7	13	24%	2%	43	-1.0
✕Chase d'Arnaud 2010 · A	23	49→50	42→45	55→60	48	235/310/354	119	288	8	19	20%	7%	89	+0.9	224/283/334	110	283	7	27	22%	6%	72	-0.2	234/297/356	122	296	11	26	24%	7%	80	+0.2