Matt King

SS Altoona Curve

Age 24 R/R 6'1" / 195 lbs AA HR -15%K -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1583ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	A+/APIT	39	.152/.263/.242	0	1	8	—	.112/.213/.164
2026	23	AA/A+PIT	310	.265/.378/.297	0	21	79	—	.257/.346/.287
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBPIT	4	.226/.298/.294	0	0	70	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	25	MLBPIT	69	.228/.301/.306	0	2	74	0.1
2029PROJ45% MLB	26	MLBPIT	122	.230/.303/.316	1	3	77	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.2M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Whiff%93

K%92

Z-Con%91

Speed57

BB%53

Chase%37

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsBryson Brigman (age 24) · Ivan Ochoa (age 24) · Calten Daal (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†70

AVG/OBP/SLG.226 / .298 / .294

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP297

ISO72

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 59 / POW 28

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT59

scouting grade only

POWER28

scouting grade only

EYE49

scouting grade only

SPEED61

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	21	21	4	3	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	190	190	333	524	143	211	10	0	227	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	18	12	1	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	0	83	353	83	436		111	17	17	248	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA	Altoona Curve	—	215	183	47	7	0	0	23	33	3	11	0	257	344	295	639	38	311	15	11	295	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	95	66	19	1	0	0	14	11	9	10	1	288	457	303	760	15	328	12	15	357	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	21	21	3	2	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	143	143	238	381	95	171	14	0	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	18	13	1	0	0	0	2	4	2	0	0	77	294	77	371		102	22	11	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	215	193	50	7	0	0	16	40	3	11	0	259	325	295	621	36	315	19	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	95	75	19	1	0	0	8	14	9	10	1	253	391	267	658	13	280	15	8	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	39	34	4	2	0	0	2	7	2	1	0	118	211	176	387	59	148	18	5	179	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	39	33	5	3	0	0	3	5	2	1	0	152	263	242	506	91	179	13	8	237	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	310	267	69	8	0	0	25	55	12	21	1	258	349	288	637	30	319	18	8	284	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	310	249	66	8	0	0	37	44	12	21	1	265	378	297	675	32	316	14	12	314	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	39	35	4	2	0	0	2	7	2	1	0	114	211	171	382	57	139	18	5	179	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	310	270	69	8	0	0	25	55	12	21	1	256	349	285	634	30	304	18	8	284	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	39	35	4	2	0	0	2	7	2	1	0	114	211	171	382	57	139	18	5	179	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	310	270	69	8	0	0	25	55	12	21	1	256	349	285	634	30	304	18	8	284	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PIT	2%	360	324	74	14	2	2	27	85	6	9	1	225	298	293	591	68	296	24	8	272	70	-13	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	PIT	2%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	226	298	294	592	69	297	25	0	272	70	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	PIT	31%	223	200	46	9	1	2	17	52	4	6	1	228	301	306	607	78	296	23	8	278	74	-7	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	PIT	45%	274	246	57	11	1	3	21	64	5	7	1	230	303	316	619	86	296	23	8	282	77	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	PIT	49%	298	268	60	11	1	3	23	70	5	7	1	229	303	318	621	89	296	23	8	283	78	-8	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	PIT	52%	311	279	63	12	1	3	24	73	5	6	1	229	302	318	620	90	295	23	8	283	77	-8	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	PIT	52%	310	278	64	12	1	4	24	74	5	5	1	227	300	317	617	90	294	24	8	281	77	-9	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	PIT	52%	306	274	62	12	1	3	24	74	5	4	1	225	297	310	607	85	292	24	8	277	74	-10	+0	-2	+3	+7	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	PIT	31%	69	63	14	3	0	0	5	16	1	2	0	228	301	306	608	78	297	23	7	278	74	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	PIT	45%	122	110	26	5	1	1	9	28	2	3	0	230	303	316	618	86	297	23	7	282	77	-3	+1	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	PIT	49%	147	133	30	6	1	1	11	34	2	4	1	230	303	317	620	88	297	23	7	283	78	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	PIT	52%	160	144	33	6	1	2	12	38	3	3	1	229	302	318	619	89	296	24	8	282	77	-4	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	PIT	52%	160	145	33	6	1	2	12	38	2	3	0	227	300	316	616	89	295	24	8	281	77	-4	+1	-1	+2	+3	0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	PIT	52%	158	143	33	6	1	2	12	38	2	2	0	225	297	309	606	84	293	24	8	277	74	-5	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	816	738	169	32	5	8	61	192	12	17	2	229	298	318	617	89	297	24	7	281	75	-23	+3	-2	+9	+18	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	134	25	4	6	49	153	10	14	2	228	299	315	613	87	296	24	8	281	75	-18	+2	-2	+7	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2257	2013	463	84	7	19	174	513	46	62	8	230	306	307	613	77	297	23	8	279	75	-55	+5	-4	+20	+41	0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	133	24	2	5	50	148	13	18	2	229	305	303	608	74	297	23	8	279	75	-19	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAltoona Curve · 215 PAwOBA .289 → .276 (−13)K% 15.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.35%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	18.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.70%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.012	7.58%
HBP% /PA	1.40%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	1.20%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.050	×1.012	27.49%
Doubles /BIP	4.67%	÷1.000	×0.860	×1.050	×1.012	4.26%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.950	×1.050	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.012	0.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .289 → .276; ISO .038 → .036; BABIP .311 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 95 PAwOBA .361 → .303 (−58)K% 11.6% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.58%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	15.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.74%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.988	8.74%
HBP% /PA	9.47%	—	×0.770	—	×0.988	7.21%
Singles /BIP	32.73%	÷1.000	×0.870	×0.993	×0.988	27.94%
Doubles /BIP	1.82%	÷1.000	×0.780	×0.993	×0.988	1.39%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.993	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.988	0.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .361 → .303; ISO .015 → .014; BABIP .328 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 21 PAwOBA .220 → .171 (−49)K% 9.5% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.52%	÷0.994	×1.310	—	—	12.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷0.980	×0.600	—	×0.998	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.770	—	×0.998	0.00%
Singles /BIP	5.26%	÷0.950	×0.870	—	×0.998	4.81%
Doubles /BIP	15.79%	÷0.998	×0.780	—	×0.998	12.31%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.025	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.048	×0.880	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 105, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .220 → .171; ISO .143 → .108; BABIP .211 → .171. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ABradenton Marauders · 18 PAwOBA .244 → .189 (−56)K% 16.7% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	22.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.67%	÷1.052	×0.690	—	×0.990	10.82%
HBP% /PA	11.11%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	8.58%
Singles /BIP	11.11%	÷0.993	×0.920	—	×0.990	10.19%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.084	×0.830	—	×0.990	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.952	×0.910	—	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.932	×0.800	—	×0.990	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 99, 2B 117, 3B 90, K 100, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .244 → .189; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .111 → .102. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#2Eric Sogardlast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,484 PA	3.7	2,484	26	46	246	312	337	+10	+22	6.0	6.6
/162	664	7	12	+2.7	+5.9	1.6	pk7: 7
#3Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	4.7	3,095	15	22	233*	291*	316*	+32	+27	4.6	5.8
/162	664	3	5	+6.8	+5.8	1.0	pk7: 7
#4Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	3.0	1,960	9	10	229*	288*	313*	+10	+27	2.7	2.7
/162	664	3	3	+3.6	+9.1	0.9	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.2	819	9	16	229	298	316	+9	+9	1.0	1.0
/162	664	7	13	+7.1	+7.3	0.8	pk7: 1
#6Paul Popovich'64-'75 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,909 PA	2.9	1,909	14	4	233*	288*	323*	+10	+20	0.2	0.9
/162	664	5	1	+3.5	+7.0	0.1	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt King (OGILVIE)	24	59	28	61	49	223/295/290	67	296	1	5	24%	8%	70	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Bryson Brigman 2019 · AA	24	53→59	36→40	51→50	45	248/297/318	70	308	3	13	20%	6%	75	-0.5	239/295/318	79	300	4	9	20%	7%	75	-0.5	245/299/322	76	300	6	12	19%	6%	74	-0.3
✕Ivan Ochoa 2007 · AAA	24	52→56	36→40	54→55	45	243/302/308	65	305	3	19	20%	6%	76	-0.4	239/295/326	87	301	6	20	21%	6%	77	-0.3	238/295/329	91	299	6	23	21%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Calten Daal 2018 · AA	24	52→55	36→30	52→50	42	246/287/307	61	317	4	16	23%	5%	69	-0.9	239/272/310	71	316	4	10	24%	4%	63	-1.3	260/277/298	38	338	0	8	23%	2%	57	-0.9
✕Brandon Sandoval 2019 · AA	24	55→59	37→30	50	43	259/302/329	70	341	4	18	24%	6%	80	-0.2	232/275/302	70	322	5	15	28%	5%	63	-1.3	218/254/263	45	307	3	14	29%	4%	45	-1.3
✕Jack Reinheimer 2016 · AA	24	51→52	37→40	53→55	44	239/287/317	77	301	4	18	21%	6%	71	-0.8	235/287/308	73	305	4	16	22%	6%	70	-0.9	231/286/298	67	301	4	17	23%	6%	65	-0.9
✕Derrik Gibson 2014 · AA	24	48→56	35→40	50→55	45	222/282/285	64	299	2	15	25%	7%	63	-1.4	242/305/318	76	311	4	12	22%	7%	78	-0.3	250/313/319	69	315	3	11	20%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Maikol Gonzalez 2010 · A	24	52→55	37→40	52→60	48	244/298/323	79	302	3	15	20%	7%	77	-0.3	224/291/306	82	306	3	16	25%	8%	71	-0.8	243/312/304	61	304	1	31	19%	8%	75	-0.2
✕Darren Baker 2024 · AAA	25	54→58	36→30	53→60	46	254/301/319	66	320	4	17	21%	6%	77	-0.3	248/300/308	60	325	2	30	22%	7%	74	-0.6	254/309/305	50	334	1	37	22%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Cody Milligan 2023 · AA	24	50→56	36→40	52→60	47	232/300/300	68	320	2	15	26%	8%	73	-0.6	222/286/313	91	312	5	26	28%	8%	71	-0.8	205/272/297	92	295	5	34	30%	7%	60	-1.0
✕Peeter Ramos 2006 · AA	24	49→55	35→30	52→50	45	230/277/286	56	276	4	13	18%	5%	61	-1.5	245/295/318	73	294	6	10	18%	6%	75	-0.5	251/303/322	71	300	6	9	18%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Levi Michael 2015 · AA	24	48→58	37→45	52→55	49	226/296/301	76	290	4	14	22%	8%	72	-0.7	221/285/310	89	299	6	15	26%	6%	70	-0.8	226/291/335	109	312	10	11	29%	5%	75	-0.3
✕Gabe Holt 2022 · AA	24	52→54	35→30	52→50	55	241/322/300	59	291	3	12	17%	10%	82	-0.0	214/268/276	62	249	3	12	14%	6%	55	-1.9	188/225/225	37	210	0	14	10%	4%	24	-2.2
✕Tony Renda 2015 · A	24	54→59	36→40	52→50	48	252/310/325	73	302	2	15	17%	7%	82	+0.0	252/297/331	79	287	3	16	13%	5%	78	-0.3	253/292/336	83	291	4	14	14%	4%	75	-0.3
✕Kurt Mertins 2010 · AA	24	51→55	37→40	52→55	42	238/286/321	83	317	3	14	25%	6%	72	-0.7	226/274/307	81	292	5	10	23%	5%	64	-1.3	215/264/287	72	272	5	8	22%	5%	54	-1.0
✕Ivan Bellazetin 2011 · AAA	24	56→55	36→40	52→55	43	262/299/333	71	314	2	18	17%	4%	79	-0.2	240/277/305	65	287	3	16	17%	4%	64	-1.3	242/279/318	75	285	6	5	17%	4%	65	-0.5
✕Daniel Figueroa 2008 · A	25	51→52	35→30	54→55	49	232/311/292	60	317	2	20	25%	9%	76	-0.4	228/313/289	61	316	3	20	26%	9%	76	-0.4	225/317/276	51	310	2	21	25%	9%	72	-0.4
✕Leonardo Reginatto 2015 · AA	25	57→62	34→30	50→45	48	264/318/320	56	320	1	10	17%	6%	83	+0.1	246/290/312	66	300	3	6	18%	5%	71	-0.8	246/287/309	63	300	3	3	18%	5%	67	-0.8
✕Drew Maggi 2013 · AA	24	47→57	36→45	52→60	47	220/285/286	66	286	3	19	23%	7%	64	-1.3	233/296/296	63	297	3	25	21%	7%	70	-0.8	240/300/319	79	320	5	18	25%	6%	74	-0.3
✕Jose Duarte 2009 · AA	24	51→57	38→40	53→55	45	240/286/319	79	297	5	21	21%	6%	72	-0.7	229/285/315	86	287	6	17	21%	7%	71	-0.8	226/292/310	85	281	6	14	20%	8%	70	-0.5
✕Cutter Dykstra 2013 · A	24	48→57	38→40	54→55	42	228/280/305	77	308	5	18	27%	6%	67	-1.1	231/297/315	84	314	6	13	26%	8%	76	-0.4	228/299/305	77	312	6	11	27%	8%	72	-0.5

Matt King

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps