Luke Cantwell — OGILVIE

Luke Cantwell1B Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 23 L/R 6'0" / 200 lbs A HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION318 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†93

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP309

ISO123

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 38 / POW 43

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT38

scouting grade only

POWER43

scouting grade only

EYE66

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	22	20	5	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	250	318	400	718	150	235	9	5	324	106	+0	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	22	20	5	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	250	318	400	718	150	210	14	5	270	69	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2025	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	22	20	5	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	250	318	400	718	150	250	14	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	22	20	5	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	250	318	400	718	150	235	9	5	324	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	22	20	5	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	250	318	400	718	150	210	14	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	22	20	5	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	250	318	400	718	150	210	14	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A MLE	SD	—	318	268	64	16	1	5	37	98	12	6	4	239	356	362	718	123	355	31	12	315	100	-0	-0	+0	-6	+7	0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A RAW	SD	—	160	125	41	13	1	2	26	30	9	6	3	328	475	496	971	168	419	19	16	437	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ RAW	SD	—	158	128	32	6	0	4	26	43	3	0	1	250	389	391	779	141	341	27	16	356	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	A MLE	SD	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		312	30	10	305	93	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	23	A MLE	SD	—	328	277	65	16	1	5	38	101	12	6	4	235	352	354	705	119	349	31	12	315	99	-0	-0	+0	-6	+7	0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SD	30%	282	245	54	11	1	6	29	83	6	5	2	220	318	347	665	127	307	29	10	305	93	-3	+0	+0	-5	+6	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	44%	350	304	68	14	1	8	36	101	7	6	3	224	320	355	675	132	306	29	10	308	94	-2	+0	+0	-6	+8	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	SD	51%	393	343	78	16	2	9	40	112	7	7	3	227	321	364	685	137	305	28	10	309	95	-2	+0	+0	-7	+9	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	SD	52%	409	356	80	16	2	9	42	116	8	8	3	225	320	357	677	132	304	28	10	309	95	-2	+0	+0	-7	+9	-0.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	SD	53%	417	363	82	17	2	9	43	119	8	8	3	226	321	358	679	132	303	29	10	308	94	-3	+0	-1	-7	+9	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	SD	53%	414	360	79	16	1	9	43	119	8	8	3	219	316	344	661	125	302	29	10	306	93	-3	+0	-1	-7	+9	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	SD	52%	411	357	78	16	1	9	43	119	8	8	3	218	316	345	661	126	300	29	10	302	91	-4	+0	-2	-7	+9	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	SD	30%	85	74	16	3	0	2	9	25	2	1	1	216	318	338	655	122	304	29	11	289	93	-1	-0	+0	-2	+2	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	44%	154	134	30	6	1	3	16	44	3	3	1	224	320	351	671	127	302	29	10	292	94	-1	+0	+0	-3	+3	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	SD	51%	199	173	40	8	1	5	20	57	4	4	2	231	325	376	701	145	301	29	10	294	95	-1	+0	+0	-4	+4	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	SD	52%	214	186	41	8	1	5	22	61	4	4	2	220	316	355	671	134	301	29	10	294	95	-1	+0	+0	-4	+5	-0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	SD	53%	222	193	43	9	1	5	23	63	4	4	2	223	318	358	676	135	300	28	10	293	94	-1	+0	-0	-4	+5	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	SD	53%	217	188	42	8	1	5	23	62	4	4	2	223	321	356	677	133	298	29	11	291	93	-2	+0	-1	-4	+5	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	SD	52%	214	186	41	8	1	5	22	62	4	4	2	220	316	355	671	134	297	29	10	288	91	-2	+0	-1	-4	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1305	1134	253	50	6	30	135	374	25	24	12	223	319	357	676	134	303	29	10	292	93	-10	+0	-2	-23	+28	-0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	565	126	25	3	15	67	186	12	12	6	223	318	358	675	135	302	29	10	292	93	-5	+0	-1	-12	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2708	2357	525	106	10	60	278	775	53	50	20	223	318	353	671	130	303	29	10	306	93	-20	+2	-4	-48	+58	-1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	566	125	25	2	14	67	186	13	12	5	221	318	346	664	125	301	29	10	306	93	-5	+0	-1	-12	+14	-0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Daniel Vogelbachlast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,913 PA	2.9	1,913	81	0	220	342	411	-29	-16	4.4	4.4
/162	664	28	0	-10.2	-5.6	1.5	pk7: 4
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Ji Man Choilast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,823 PA	2.7	1,823	65	6	234	338	423	-33	-31	1.8	1.8
/162	664	24	2	-11.9	-11.3	0.7	pk7: 2
#5Travis Sniderlast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,971 PA	3.0	1,971	54	22	244	311	399	-21	-17	1.4	1.8
/162	664	18	7	-7.1	-5.8	0.5	pk7: 2
#6Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	3.6	2,377	81	7	239	332	416	-42	-36	1.7	1.7
/162	664	23	2	-11.9	-10.1	0.5	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.1	1,408	31	26	224	316	356	-25	-6	0.3	0.4
/162	664	15	12	-11.9	-2.8	0.1	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Cantwell (OGILVIE)	23	33→38	38→43	47→52	66	219/320/342	124	312	2	2	30%	11%	93	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Niko Kavadas 2022 · A	23	47→44	45→55	49→30	50	224/310/355	131	321	12	7	32%	11%	91	+0.6	202/315/376	174	332	22	3	41%	12%	98	+1.2	181/303/354	173	298	23	1	42%	13%	88	+0.4
✕Nicky Delmonico 2015 · A	23	40→47	47→50	46→45	43	206/271/340	134	280	15	8	31%	7%	72	-0.7	225/282/366	141	294	13	6	27%	7%	82	-0.0	230/299/381	151	284	16	4	24%	8%	89	+0.4
✕DJ Stewart 2017 · A	23	45→48	42→55	51→50	48	215/293/325	110	294	9	16	28%	9%	77	-0.3	225/297/366	141	277	15	14	24%	8%	88	+0.5	208/314/396	188	250	26	2	28%	11%	99	+0.6
✕Parker Meadows 2023 · AA	23	40→47	48→55	52→55	43	209/268/351	142	267	16	12	28%	7%	74	-0.6	223/290/379	156	286	16	20	27%	8%	88	+0.4	222/295/383	161	284	16	22	27%	9%	88	+0.4
✕Imanol Vargas 2021 · A	23	44→43	45→50	46→45	46	211/291/336	125	311	13	8	34%	10%	78	-0.3	206/287/361	155	334	19	4	40%	10%	83	+0.1	204/288/352	148	322	17	2	39%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Jarrett Parker 2012 · A	23	45→50	44→55	51→50	46	213/294/329	116	318	11	13	34%	10%	78	-0.3	209/287/346	137	340	14	15	39%	8%	80	-0.2	231/306/407	176	333	22	12	35%	8%	98	+0.9
✕Taylor Trammell 2021 · AA	23	42→46	40→55	51→55	46	203/278/290	87	288	8	17	30%	9%	63	-1.3	213/292/373	160	289	19	15	31%	9%	88	+0.4	203/297/373	170	273	21	23	32%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Brian O'Grady 2015 · A	23	39→38	43→55	54→50	47	196/261/312	115	255	9	8	26%	8%	61	-1.5	190/272/302	112	268	10	14	30%	10%	64	-1.3	208/271/384	177	275	20	15	31%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Chris Meyers 2022 · A	23	40→45	41→50	51→40	45	197/267/298	101	259	8	11	26%	7%	61	-1.5	220/278/357	137	292	15	6	29%	6%	79	-0.2	222/283/366	144	287	17	3	28%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Jaff Decker 2013 · AA	23	39→49	49→55	49→55	50	201/288/349	147	259	16	11	28%	10%	81	-0.1	218/293/334	116	286	10	11	25%	9%	78	-0.3	221/295/327	106	285	9	13	24%	9%	76	-0.3
●TJ Rumfield 2023 · A	23	48→58	40→45	46→45	50	229/307/321	92	297	7	7	24%	9%	81	-0.1	227/294/353	126	280	14	7	23%	7%	84	+0.1	254/330/375	121	301	12	3	19%	9%	100	+1.2
✕Christopher Familia 2023 · A	23	40	46→55	47→45	45	203/281/331	128	258	14	8	26%	8%	74	-0.5	219/278/387	168	291	21	4	31%	6%	86	+0.3	217/271/408	191	280	27	0	32%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Carlos Alvarez 2011 · AAA	23	47	43→45	48→45	46	230/294/339	109	297	11	12	26%	7%	80	-0.2	232/296/356	124	293	12	10	24%	8%	84	+0.2	250/327/331	82	302	5	6	17%	9%	89	+0.2
✕Troy Sieber 2018 · A	23	48	42→45	43→40	49	226/306/334	108	316	10	3	30%	10%	84	+0.1	216/283/320	104	322	8	5	33%	8%	72	-0.7	184/251/275	91	289	6	2	36%	7%	47	-0.7
✕Cooper Hummel 2018 · A	23	41→49	41→50	47→55	51	199/284/299	100	264	8	6	26%	10%	68	-1.0	203/296/322	119	286	12	5	31%	10%	78	-0.3	215/328/356	141	293	12	19	28%	12%	96	+0.7
✕Missael Rivera 2019 · AAA	23	46	43→50	50→45	43	225/272/336	111	280	10	12	24%	6%	71	-0.8	240/302/390	150	309	16	9	26%	7%	95	+1.0	240/303/395	155	305	16	5	26%	7%	97	+0.6
✕Byron Wiley 2010 · A	23	45→44	46→45	47→45	47	214/297/351	137	324	12	7	35%	10%	84	+0.2	214/290/337	123	332	13	8	36%	9%	78	-0.3	180/264/286	106	281	17	8	40%	9%	56	-0.6
✕Christian Marrero 2009 · A	23	44→54	44→50	48→50	46	218/277/345	127	267	11	6	22%	7%	75	-0.5	244/295/374	130	299	12	7	22%	6%	88	+0.5	253/306/386	133	303	12	7	20%	6%	95	+0.8
✕Chris Pieters 2018 · A	23	45	40→45	51→55	44	215/280/315	101	289	7	13	27%	7%	69	-0.9	208/260/300	92	298	6	11	30%	6%	58	-1.7	173/207/222	50	261	0	15	32%	4%	18	-0.8
✕Matt Cogen 2019 · A	23	47	47→55	54→40	46	234/295/376	142	288	14	5	24%	7%	89	+0.5	206/266/291	85	289	6	5	29%	7%	59	-1.7	164/227/201	37	243	0	2	30%	7%	22	-1.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps