Luke Cantwell

1B Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 24 L/R 6'0" / 200 lbs A HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	A+SD	22	.250/.318/.400	1	0	71	—	.250/.318/.400
2026	23	A+/ASD	318	.289/.432/.443	6	6	100	—	.242/.356/.365
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBSD	368	.198/.295/.306	6	6	73	-0.3
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBSD	58	.198/.294/.309	1	1	76	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

BB%85

Chase%72

wOBA65

wRC+62

ISO46

Z-Con%44

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsPreston Beck (age 24) · Mike Papi (age 24) · Gage Green (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 167 proj PA

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .292 / .304

PA167

HR3

K%30

BB%10

ISO108

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 34 / POW 38

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT34

scouting grade only

POWER38

scouting grade only

EYE61

scouting grade only

SPEED47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	22	20	5	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	250	318	400	718	150	235	9	5	324	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	158	128	32	6	0	4	26	43	3	0	1	250	389	391	779	141	341	27	16	356	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	160	125	41	13	1	2	26	30	9	6	3	328	475	496	971	168	419	19	16	437	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	22	20	5	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	250	318	400	718	150	215	14	5	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	158	136	27	5	0	3	18	55	3	0	1	199	306	301	607	103	300	35	11	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	160	133	38	11	1	2	18	41	9	6	3	286	406	429	835	143	386	26	11	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	22	20	5	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	250	318	400	718	150	250	14	5	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	22	20	5	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	250	318	400	718	150	235	9	5	324	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	318	269	65	16	1	5	36	95	12	6	4	242	356	364	721	123	353	30	11	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	318	253	73	19	1	6	52	73	12	6	4	289	432	443	875	154	383	23	16	397	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	22	20	5	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	250	318	400	718	150	215	14	5	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	318	267	65	16	1	5	36	95	12	6	4	243	356	367	724	124	343	30	11	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	22	20	5	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	250	318	400	718	150	215	14	5	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	318	267	65	16	1	5	36	95	12	6	4	243	356	367	724	124	343	30	11	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SD	0%	368	321	63	12	2	6	38	111	6	6	2	198	295	306	601	108	278	30	10	277	73	-12	+0	+0	-7	+8	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	30%	193	168	35	7	1	4	20	58	3	3	1	201	297	314	611	112	279	30	10	280	76	-6	+0	+0	-3	+4	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	30%	58	51	10	2	0	1	6	17	1	1	0	198	294	309	603	111	274	29	10	277	76	-2	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	58	51	10	2	0	1	6	17	1	1	0	196	293	294	587	98	273	29	10	277	86	-2	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	572	111	22	0	11	67	191	11	11	0	194	291	290	581	96	270	29	10	277	86	-19	+2	+0	-12	+14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	700	602	135	29	3	13	74	207	19	12	6	224	328	347	675	123	317	30	11	296	86	-11	+0	+0	-6	+8	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	559	126	27	3	12	69	192	18	11	6	225	330	349	679	123	318	30	11	296	86	-20	+1	+0	-12	+14	-1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 160 PAwOBA .426 → .355 (−72)K% 18.8% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.75%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	25.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.25%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	11.10%
HBP% /PA	5.62%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	4.34%
Singles /BIP	26.32%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.050	×0.990	25.17%
Doubles /BIP	13.68%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.050	×0.990	11.81%
Triples /BIP	1.05%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.050	×0.990	1.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.11%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	1.67%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .426 → .355; ISO .168 → .142; BABIP .419 → .386. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 158 PAwOBA .350 → .277 (−73)K% 27.2% → 34.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.22%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	34.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.46%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.998	11.66%
HBP% /PA	1.90%	—	×0.790	—	×0.998	1.50%
Singles /BIP	25.88%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.991	×0.998	23.54%
Doubles /BIP	7.06%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.991	×0.998	5.65%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.991	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.71%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.998	3.76%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .350 → .277; ISO .141 → .109; BABIP .341 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 22 PAwOBA .315 → .273 (−42)K% 9.1% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.09%	÷0.989	×1.270	—	—	11.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.55%	÷0.984	×0.710	—	×1.012	3.32%
HBP% /PA	4.55%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	3.63%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.013	×0.920	—	×1.012	20.43%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.071	×0.810	—	×1.012	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.120	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.56%	÷0.941	×0.800	—	×1.012	4.78%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 103, 2B 114, 3B 124, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .315 → .273; ISO .150 → .128; BABIP .235 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#2Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#3James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#4Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1
#5Dave McCarty'93-'05 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,647 PA	2.5	1,647	36	9	233*	295*	365*	-26	+16	-1.1	0.5
/162	664	15	4	-10.5	+6.6	-0.4	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.3	225	4	4	200	293	310	-4	-2	-0.4	-0.2
/162	664	12	11	-11.9	-4.4	-1.2	pk7: 0
#6Seth Brownlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,799 PA	2.7	1,799	74	24	227	293	421	-23	-34	-0.8	-0.8
/162	664	27	9	-8.6	-12.4	-0.3	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Cantwell (OGILVIE)	24	34	38	47	61	197/292/304	107	278	3	3	30%	10%	73	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Preston Beck 2015 · A	24	43→42	42→45	48→45	49	209/284/315	106	269	9	8	25%	9%	72	-0.7	212/270/317	105	265	8	7	22%	7%	66	-1.1	213/262/313	100	267	8	3	23%	5%	59	-1.0
✕Mike Papi 2017 · AA	24	39→48	44→45	44→45	48	194/277/313	119	273	11	5	31%	10%	69	-0.9	219/296/332	113	293	11	5	27%	9%	80	-0.2	221/299/323	102	290	10	4	25%	9%	78	-0.1
✕Gage Green 2017 · A	24	41	40	46→50	40	203/263/289	87	279	8	10	29%	6%	57	-1.8	202/259/289	87	278	7	8	28%	6%	55	-1.9	167/215/228	61	221	0	0	23%	4%	26	-0.7
✕Dillon Paulson 2021 · A	24	40→36	47→50	48→30	48	201/284/341	140	287	14	4	33%	10%	78	-0.3	221/287/339	118	294	12	5	27%	8%	78	-0.3	211/273/307	96	276	7	0	25%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Reid Fronk 2010 · A	24	42→47	43→45	44→50	46	206/292/318	112	279	10	10	28%	8%	76	-0.4	202/287/293	91	284	5	8	28%	9%	68	-1.0	194/284/280	86	276	3	7	28%	9%	62	-1.0
✕Jarrod Belbin 2024 · A	24	44	41→40	50	47	213/279/316	103	280	8	12	26%	8%	69	-0.9	215/281/309	94	298	7	10	28%	8%	68	-1.0	209/280/302	93	286	7	10	27%	8%	63	-0.5
✕Nick Maton 2021 · AA	24	44→42	41→50	45	45	211/274/308	96	287	8	9	28%	8%	65	-1.2	213/296/338	125	288	11	7	28%	9%	82	-0.0	210/302/353	143	263	16	4	25%	10%	86	+0.2
✕Danny Payne 2010 · A	24	42→41	41→45	47→50	52	200/295/300	100	294	8	13	32%	12%	73	-0.6	191/276/305	114	296	9	17	35%	10%	66	-1.1	174/262/292	118	271	9	19	36%	10%	57	-1.4
✕Dustin Yount 2007 · AA	24	44	44→45	43→40	47	217/292/330	113	290	13	4	29%	9%	78	-0.3	210/282/316	106	283	11	6	28%	8%	71	-0.8	209/276/352	143	307	17	0	36%	8%	72	-0.1
✕Tanner Allen 2022 · A	24	40	42→45	44→45	43	199/252/299	99	250	9	7	24%	6%	55	-1.9	202/255/299	97	247	9	7	21%	6%	56	-1.9	199/255/294	95	242	9	7	21%	6%	51	-1.1
✕Justin Toerner 2021 · AA	24	45→40	43→40	47→50	47	217/303/322	105	307	11	12	31%	10%	80	-0.1	189/281/292	103	282	11	9	34%	9%	66	-1.1	163/265/260	97	242	11	9	34%	10%	52	-1.1
✕Shayne Fontana 2022 · AA	25	40	41→45	48→55	46	195/273/300	105	283	8	8	32%	9%	63	-1.3	215/297/319	104	298	10	14	29%	8%	78	-0.3	219/303/314	95	294	10	19	27%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Grant Lavigne 2024 · AA	24	44→50	44→45	45	46	214/294/332	118	307	11	4	32%	9%	79	-0.2	214/295/340	126	309	13	8	32%	9%	82	-0.0	202/291/326	124	293	13	9	33%	9%	76	-0.4
✕Anthony Seigler 2023 · A	24	39→40	42→45	46→55	54	193/293/304	111	262	9	11	28%	12%	73	-0.6	198/296/310	112	251	10	20	23%	12%	75	-0.5	221/312/347	126	270	10	25	21%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Imanol Vargas 2021 · A	23	42→43	44→50	46→45	47	204/287/322	118	294	12	8	32%	10%	74	-0.5	206/286/361	155	328	19	4	39%	10%	83	+0.1	198/285/355	157	311	19	2	39%	10%	79	-0.2
✕Devin Foyle 2021 · A	24	42→39	40→45	48→45	44	199/276/293	94	296	8	12	33%	9%	63	-1.3	209/278/327	118	271	12	8	26%	8%	72	-0.7	200/272/318	119	252	12	6	25%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Kevin Rivers 2013 · A	24	41→43	45→50	45	43	202/273/326	124	287	12	6	32%	8%	70	-0.8	209/271/335	126	289	11	6	30%	7%	70	-0.8	205/266/333	128	279	10	4	29%	7%	66	-0.9
✕Jameson Fisher 2018 · A	24	41→36	41→40	44→45	42	201/268/306	104	280	8	7	30%	7%	63	-1.3	188/257/281	93	285	8	6	34%	8%	53	-2.1	188/255/286	98	278	9	4	34%	7%	52	-1.6
✕Stefan Welch 2013 · AA	24	43	43→45	47→40	42	212/272/323	111	288	11	5	30%	6%	68	-1.0	205/277/319	114	280	12	4	29%	7%	70	-0.9	189/271/303	114	257	12	2	30%	8%	64	-0.9
✕Trent Tingelstad 2022 · A	24	46	43→45	49→30	48	215/297/326	111	320	10	4	33%	10%	79	-0.2	192/275/275	83	298	6	4	34%	10%	59	-1.6	162/250/222	60	249	3	0	33%	10%	35	-1.9

Luke Cantwell

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps