Luke Cantwell — OGILVIE

Luke Cantwell1B Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 23 L/R 6'0" / 200 lbs A HR -7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION197 act + 131 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†99

AVG/OBP/SLG.234 / .322 / .382

PA131

HR3

K%28

BB%9

BABIP314

ISO147

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	22	20	4	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	200	273	350	623	150	188	14	5	273	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	22	20	5	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	250	318	400	718	150	235	9	5	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A	SD	—	197	165	42	12	1	4	23	58	9	6	4	255	376	412	788	158	369	29	12	339	118	+4	-0	+0	-4	+6	0.6
YTD	23	A	SD	—	197	156	47	14	1	5	32	43	9	6	4	301	447	500	947	199	389	22	16	423	182	+18	-0	+0	-4	+6	2.0
ROS	23	A	SD	0%	131	115	27	6	1	3	12	37	3	3	1	234	322	382	704	147	314	28	9	314	99	-0	+0	+0	-2	+4	0.1
ROS	23	MLB	SD	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		309	—	—	291	81	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	23	A	SD	—	197	166	42	12	1	4	23	58	9	6	4	253	376	410	785	157	365	29	12	339	118	+4	-0	+0	-4	+6	0.6
TOT	23	A	SD	—	328	280	69	18	2	7	35	95	12	9	5	246	354	400	754	153	346	29	11	329	110	+4	-0	+0	-6	+9	0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	SD	30%	275	242	56	12	1	6	25	75	6	6	2	231	319	364	682	132	308	27	9	314	98	-1	+0	+0	-5	+8	0.3
2028	25	MLB	SD	44%	344	302	71	15	2	8	32	92	7	8	3	235	323	377	700	142	307	27	9	316	100	-0	+0	+0	-6	+10	0.4
2029	26	MLB	SD	51%	389	342	81	17	2	10	36	103	8	9	3	237	324	386	710	149	306	26	9	317	101	+0	+1	+0	-7	+11	0.5
2030	27	MLB	SD	52%	406	357	84	18	2	10	38	108	8	9	4	235	323	381	704	146	306	27	9	317	101	+0	+0	+0	-7	+12	0.5
2027	24	MLB	SD	30%	83	73	17	4	0	2	8	23	2	2	1	233	325	370	695	137	304	28	10	294	83	-2	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	SD	44%	152	134	32	7	1	4	14	41	3	3	1	239	325	396	720	157	303	27	9	297	85	-3	+0	+0	-3	+4	-0.1
2029	26	MLB	SD	51%	197	173	40	8	1	5	18	52	4	4	2	231	318	376	694	145	302	26	9	298	86	-3	+0	+0	-4	+6	-0.1
2030	27	MLB	SD	52%	213	187	43	9	1	5	20	56	4	5	2	230	318	369	687	139	302	26	9	298	86	-3	+0	+0	-4	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	645	568	132	28	3	16	60	172	13	14	6	232	320	377	697	144	303	27	9	297	86	-10	+0	+0	-12	+18	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	572	133	28	3	16	60	173	13	14	6	233	319	376	695	143	303	27	9	297	86	-11	+0	+0	-12	+18	-0.3
Career	—			—	1567	1378	323	68	8	38	144	418	33	35	13	234	321	378	699	144	306	27	9	315	100	-1	+2	+0	-28	+44	1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	572	134	28	3	16	60	173	14	15	5	234	322	378	700	143	306	27	9	315	100	-0	+1	+0	-12	+18	0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	22	20	5	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	250	318	400	718	150	235	9	5	324	106	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gabe Grosslast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,682 PA	7	1,682	40	22	239	330	385	-14	+11	5.1	5.1
#1Gabe Grosslast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,682 PA	/162	664	16	9	239	330	385	-5.7	+4.4	2.0	pk7: 5
#2Nate Schierholtzlast yr '14 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,275 PA	8	2,275	52	30	253	302	405	-24	-6	2.0	2.8
	/162	664	15	9	253	302	405	-7.1	-1.8	0.6	pk7: 4
#3Travis Sniderlast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,971 PA	8	1,971	54	22	244	311	399	-21	-17	1.4	1.8
	/162	664	18	7	244	311	399	-7.1	-5.8	0.5	pk7: 2
#4Darin Ruflast yr '23 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,653 PA	8	1,653	64	6	237	329	420	-28	-31	1.0	1.7
#4Darin Ruflast yr '23 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,653 PA	/162	664	26	2	237	329	420	-11.3	-12.4	0.4	pk7: 2
#5Ben Franciscolast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,771 PA	7	1,771	50	30	253	323	418	-19	-29	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	19	11	253	323	418	-7.1	-10.9	0.6	pk7: 2
#6John Mabrylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,560 PA	7	1,560	54	2	243	309	416	-15	-16	1.6	1.6
#6John Mabrylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,560 PA	/162	664	23	1	243	309	416	-6.5	-6.7	0.7	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	743	18	17	235	317	379	-13	-4	0.7	0.7
	/162	664	16	15	235	317	379	-11.9	-4.0	0.6	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Cantwell (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	246/354/400	153	346	7	9	29%	11%	110	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Austin Shenton 2021 · A	23	43→53	47→55	49→30	40	218/272/353	134	286	14	7	28%	6%	72	-0.2	231/301/399	168	330	18	3	33%	8%	97	+1.5	232/316/415	183	331	22	0	34%	10%	104	+1.4
✕DJ Stewart 2017 · A	23	44→47	42→60	51→50	48	212/288/320	108	289	9	16	28%	9%	70	-0.3	226/297/378	152	277	18	14	24%	8%	90	+1.0	225/298/394	169	265	21	12	23%	8%	92	+1.0
★Zach Borenstein 2013 · A	23	42→52	44→60	52→50	41	209/267/336	126	276	10	14	28%	6%	66	-0.6	248/297/446	198	316	24	8	29%	6%	108	+2.3	251/301/452	201	318	25	6	28%	6%	108	+1.8
●Ka'ai Tom 2018 · A	24	45→50	44→55	52→50	47	224/285/348	125	278	11	15	23%	7%	76	+0.1	240/302/420	180	305	20	10	27%	7%	102	+1.9	227/300/415	188	290	21	7	28%	8%	97	+1.1
✕Tristan Peters 2023 · AA	23	45→53	44→45	53→50	48	218/288/344	126	281	9	14	25%	8%	76	+0.1	229/295/348	119	286	9	12	22%	8%	80	+0.4	238/306/369	131	290	10	10	21%	8%	87	+0.6
✕Richie Palacios 2021 · A	24	48→52	44→50	52→55	43	235/285/355	120	301	12	11	26%	6%	78	+0.2	244/321/376	132	298	10	18	20%	9%	98	+1.6	241/323/378	136	285	11	17	18%	9%	97	+1.1
●Jarrett Parker 2012 · A	23	46→51	44→55	51→50	47	214/301/332	118	325	11	13	35%	10%	79	+0.3	210/287/356	146	347	16	15	40%	8%	79	+0.3	235/309/419	184	335	23	12	35%	8%	102	+1.5
●Brandon Jones 2007 · AA	23	47→53	48→55	49→50	43	237/287/385	147	294	15	11	25%	6%	86	+0.8	246/298/385	139	312	13	11	24%	7%	91	+1.1	249/305/383	134	313	12	10	23%	7%	91	+1.0
●Christian Marrero 2009 · A	23	44→54	44→50	48→50	46	218/277/345	127	267	11	6	22%	7%	72	-0.2	246/296/385	139	302	14	7	22%	6%	90	+1.0	257/309/405	148	308	15	7	21%	6%	100	+1.5
●Brock Stassi 2013 · A	23	45→55	43→50	51→45	46	221/276/334	113	275	10	9	23%	7%	69	-0.4	237/285/335	98	281	8	7	18%	6%	72	-0.2	237/306/372	135	273	15	1	19%	9%	90	+0.8
●Bronson Sardinha 2006 · AA	23	46→52	44→50	47→50	43	227/283/346	119	294	11	9	26%	7%	75	-0.0	229/282/359	130	284	13	8	24%	7%	78	+0.2	269/333/408	139	330	12	8	21%	8%	108	+1.4
●TJ Rumfield 2023 · A	23	48→53	40→50	46→45	51	227/306/322	96	293	7	7	24%	9%	79	+0.3	229/296/363	134	283	15	7	24%	7%	85	+0.7	255/324/388	133	302	14	3	20%	8%	100	+1.4
✕Alan Roden 2023 · A	23	47→56	41→45	51→50	51	223/308/322	99	268	8	12	19%	8%	80	+0.4	254/328/377	123	297	11	14	17%	8%	102	+1.9	257/332/384	128	298	12	14	17%	8%	102	+1.4
●Shane Peterson 2011 · AA	23	48→58	41→50	53→50	42	232/290/333	101	307	9	10	26%	6%	74	-0.1	236/307/354	118	314	11	13	26%	8%	87	+0.8	254/328/373	119	355	10	13	29%	9%	98	+1.4
✕Nicky Delmonico 2015 · A	23	39→47	48→55	46→45	42	204/268/342	138	279	16	8	32%	7%	68	-0.5	229/285/383	154	301	15	6	28%	7%	85	+0.7	232/301/393	160	284	18	4	24%	8%	91	+0.9
✕Buddy Kennedy 2022 · AA	23	41→51	47→50	50	43	211/277/342	131	291	16	12	32%	8%	72	-0.2	221/301/335	114	288	11	8	25%	9%	79	+0.3	233/314/376	143	270	15	6	19%	8%	93	+0.8
✕Tim Smith 2009 · A	23	50→51	44→50	49→55	41	245/292/362	117	295	11	12	21%	4%	82	+0.5	257/300/380	123	302	13	16	19%	5%	91	+1.1	265/306/393	129	304	16	18	18%	4%	97	+0.8
●Christin Stewart 2016 · A	22	46→50	48→60	49→45	41	228/296/373	145	308	15	8	30%	6%	88	+0.9	208/287/372	164	279	20	3	31%	9%	85	+0.7	231/305/421	189	283	24	1	27%	8%	101	+1.5
●Josh Lowe 2021 · AA	23	41→51	49→55	52→60	42	209/275/352	144	299	17	20	35%	8%	73	-0.1	247/306/415	168	344	19	26	32%	8%	102	+1.9	256/314/436	180	349	20	31	31%	7%	108	+1.9
✕Tyler Henley 2008 · A	23	42→52	48→55	50→45	37	213/263/352	139	295	15	8	33%	5%	69	-0.4	246/290/387	141	293	12	8	20%	5%	89	+0.9	255/298/401	146	300	12	7	19%	5%	93	+0.7