Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 16 | 9 | 63 | 277 | 64 | 15 | 6 | 56% | 4.0 | 17.1% | 6.4% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.01 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SEA | 5 | 5 | 37 | 155 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 7.3 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.0% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.32 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 100 | 432 | 100 | 29 | 11 | — | — | 23.1% | 6.7% | 16.4% | 2.5% | 4.37 | 4.12 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 5 | 5 | 38 | 159 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 7.5 | 23.6% | 8.7% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 2 | 2 | 16 | 68 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 8.0 | 23.6% | 8.7% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 16 | 68 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 8.0 | 23.6% | 8.7% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 3.84 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 28 | 28 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 75 | 25 | 100% | 7.0 | 23.6% | 8.7% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 3.84 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 16 | 9 | 63 | 277 | 47 | 18 | 8 | 56% | 4.0 | 17.1% | 6.4% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.01 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 28 | 200 | 875 | 150 | 56 | 25 | 56% | 4.0 | 17.1% | 6.4% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.01 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Bowery (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.22 | 23.6% | 14.9% | 38 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 80 |
| Brady Basso L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.17 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.18 | 2.24 | 269 | 80 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.28 | 3.54 | 186 | 79 |
| Will Johnston L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .290 | 4.34 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 82 | +0.13 | 4.04 | 174 | 79 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2029 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 78 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.50 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .237 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.1% | 146 | -0.20 | 2.02 | 280 | 78 |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .284 | 4.47 | 17.1% | 5.8% | 213 | +0.07 | 3.67 | 288 | 77 |
| Jordan Woods L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.74 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 143 | 76 |
| Ryan Williamson L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.10 | 18.4% | 5.9% | 3.3% | .286 | 5.67 | 18.4% | 5.8% | 102 | +1.57 | 4.10 | 123 | 75 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .349 | 4.18 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.31 | 3.65 | 308 | 75 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 75 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.63 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .249 | 4.99 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 48 | +1.36 | 3.10 | 196 | 75 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .315 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | -0.07 | 4.77 | 154 | 74 |
| Joe Kemlage L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.35 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .278 | 5.53 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 65 | +1.18 | 4.35 | 128 | 74 |
| JP Sears L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.90 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.0% | .268 | 3.25 | 24.7% | 17.8% | 222 | -0.65 | 2.18 | 927 | 74 |
| Drake Owenby L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.88 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 140 | 73 |
| Ben Shields L 2028 · 3.20 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.20 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .273 | 2.91 | 23.5% | 13.3% | 43 | -0.29 | 2.91 | 147 | 73 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2028 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.64 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .314 | 3.18 | 21.5% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.46 | 3.18 | 150 | 73 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | .263 | 4.29 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.37 | 2.34 | 338 | 73 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.97 | 18.9% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .382 | 3.85 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 311 | -0.12 | 3.10 | 381 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 37 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 1.15 | 4.29 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |