Jack Bowery — OGILVIE

Jack Bowery P Inland Empire 66ers

Age 23 LHP 5'11" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.7 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.20

FIP4.20

K%21.3%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%14.2%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$32M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	24	14	100	423	100	20	6	58%	4.2	17.5%	5.6%	11.9%	1.8%	3.69	3.34	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	24	14	100	423	100	20	6	58%	4.2	17.5%	5.6%	11.9%	1.8%	3.69	3.34	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	SEA	24	14	100	423	100	20	6	58%	4.2	23.6%	4.7%	18.9%	1.4%	3.69	2.48	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	100	423	93	29	12	100%	7.2	21.9%	6.9%	15.0%	2.9%	4.15	4.11	+0.9
2028	25	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	102	429	96	29	13	100%	7.3	22.3%	6.8%	15.5%	2.9%	4.10	4.07	+1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	102	429	96	29	13	100%	7.3	22.5%	6.8%	15.6%	2.9%	4.07	4.05	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	100	423	95	29	13	100%	7.1	22.4%	6.9%	15.5%	3.0%	4.09	4.09	+1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	97	410	91	29	13	100%	6.9	22.3%	7.1%	15.2%	3.1%	4.14	4.18	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	93	391	86	29	13	100%	7.1	22.1%	7.3%	14.8%	3.2%	4.24	4.31	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	87	368	80	28	13	100%	7.3	21.7%	7.6%	14.1%	3.4%	4.39	4.49	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	81	343	73	27	13	100%	7.4	21.3%	8.0%	13.4%	3.7%	4.57	4.69	+0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	75	317	73	24	12	100%	6.8	22.9%	7.5%	15.3%	3.9%	4.62	4.65	+0.2
2036	33	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	69	291	65	23	12	100%	6.9	22.4%	8.0%	14.4%	4.2%	4.79	4.90	0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	SEA	6	6	43	182	40	13	5	100%	7.2	21.9%	6.9%	15.0%	2.9%	4.11	4.07	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	67	283	63	19	8	100%	7.4	22.3%	6.8%	15.5%	2.8%	4.06	4.03	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	SEA	11	11	80	338	76	23	10	100%	7.3	22.5%	6.8%	15.6%	2.9%	4.03	4.01	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	85	359	81	25	10	100%	7.1	22.4%	6.9%	15.5%	2.9%	4.05	4.05	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	86	363	81	26	11	100%	7.2	22.3%	7.1%	15.2%	3.0%	4.10	4.14	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	84	355	78	26	11	100%	7.0	22.1%	7.3%	14.8%	3.1%	4.20	4.27	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	SEA	11	11	80	338	73	26	11	100%	7.3	21.7%	7.6%	14.1%	3.3%	4.34	4.44	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	SEA	11	11	76	321	68	26	11	100%	6.9	21.3%	8.0%	13.4%	3.6%	4.52	4.64	+0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	70	296	68	22	11	100%	7.0	22.9%	7.5%	15.3%	3.8%	4.57	4.60	+0.2
2036	33	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	65	274	61	22	11	100%	7.2	22.4%	8.0%	14.4%	4.1%	4.73	4.84	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		103	103	738	3117	691	227	101	100%	7.2	22.2%	7.3%	14.9%	3.2%	4.26	3.93	+8.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		28	28	200	844	187	61	27	100%	7.1	22.2%	7.3%	14.9%	3.2%	4.26	3.93	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		24	14	100	423	74	24	8	58%	4.2	17.5%	5.6%	11.9%	1.8%	3.69	3.34	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	28	200	846	148	47	16	58%	4.2	17.5%	5.6%	11.9%	1.8%	3.69	3.34	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Bowery (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.20	21.3%	7.0%	3.0%	—	4.08	22.2%	15.4%	304	-0.12	—	—	—
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	80
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	78
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.20	21.6%	15.5%	179	+0.27	2.24	306	78
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	75
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	75
Jack Owen L 2021 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	4.2%	.359	4.22	16.0%	8.7%	201	-0.36	3.44	221	75
Zach Draper L 2018 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	13.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.289	5.06	14.9%	6.1%	166	+0.89	4.17	206	73
JP Sears L 2019 · 3.85 FIP	23	SW	3.85	16.8%	8.9%	1.9%	.268	3.34	24.7%	17.8%	222	-0.51	2.18	958	72
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	72
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	72
Drake Owenby L 2017 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP-	4.13	23.4%	7.8%	3.7%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	140	71
James Reeves L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	23	SW	3.32	21.9%	8.7%	1.8%	.237	3.30	23.0%	13.1%	146	-0.02	2.02	280	71
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	70
Ben Brecht L 2021 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	17.3%	5.5%	3.8%	.237	4.44	21.1%	17.2%	43	+0.01	4.43	118	70
Jhenderson Hurtado L 2019 · 3.19 FIP	23	SP-	3.19	21.0%	10.6%	1.0%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	208	70
Alex Cornwell L 2022 · 3.76 FIP	23	SW	3.76	18.9%	7.3%	2.4%	.382	3.81	16.2%	8.2%	311	+0.05	3.16	381	70
Hector Hernandez L 2015 · 3.05 FIP	24	SP-	3.05	14.3%	4.6%	1.1%	.250	2.17	19.4%	13.8%	45	-0.88	2.17	121	69
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	68
Jordan Carr L 2022 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	4.01	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.15	3.49	269	67
Parker Mushinski L 2019 · 3.57 FIP	23	SP-	3.57	21.6%	8.2%	2.3%	.303	3.67	23.3%	13.3%	106	+0.10	3.11	455	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	84	22.2%	7.2%	1.26	4.28
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98