Jack Bowery

P Inland Empire 66ers

Age 24 LHP 5'11" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.3 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP40OGV rank#340ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	ASEA	24	14	100	3.69	2.48	23.6%	4.7%	—	K 17.5% · BB 5.6% · FIP 3.34
2027PROJ	24	MLBSEA	—	—	0	4.17	4.17	18.8%	5.9%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSEA	5	5	33	4.08	4.05	19.9%	6.0%	0.5
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBSEA	7	7	50	4.05	4.02	20.4%	6.1%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsTommy Shirley (age 26) · Billy Traber (age 23) · Jordan Carr (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96104vR 112

ERA4.17

FIP4.17

K%18.8%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%12.9%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$41M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2036	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.1M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$7M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	24	14	100	423	100	20	6	58%	4.2	17.5%	5.6%	11.9%	1.8%	3.69	3.34	—
2026	23	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	24	14	100	423	100	20	6	58%	4.2	17.5%	5.6%	11.9%	1.8%	3.69	3.34	—
2026	23	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	24	14	100	423	100	20	6	58%	4.2	23.6%	4.7%	18.9%	1.4%	3.69	2.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.8%	5.9%	12.9%	2.8%	4.17	4.17	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	78	331	66	20	9	100%	7.1	19.9%	6.0%	13.9%	2.8%	4.12	4.09	+1.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	76	319	65	19	9	100%	6.9	20.4%	6.1%	14.3%	2.8%	4.09	4.06	+1.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	73	308	63	19	9	100%	7.3	20.5%	6.2%	14.2%	2.9%	4.11	4.11	+1.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	69	292	60	19	9	100%	6.9	20.4%	6.4%	14.0%	3.0%	4.16	4.20	+1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	SEA	9	9	64	271	55	18	8	100%	7.1	20.1%	6.7%	13.5%	3.1%	4.26	4.33	+0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	SEA	9	9	64	271	59	17	9	100%	7.1	21.8%	6.2%	15.6%	3.3%	4.25	4.24	+0.9
2034	31	MLB MLE	SEA	8	8	57	240	51	16	8	100%	7.1	21.4%	6.5%	14.9%	3.5%	4.36	4.44	+0.6
2035	32	MLB MLE	SEA	7	7	49	208	44	14	8	100%	7.0	20.9%	6.9%	14.0%	3.8%	4.54	4.66	+0.4
2036	33	MLB MLE	SEA	6	6	42	177	36	13	7	100%	7.0	20.4%	7.3%	13.1%	4.1%	4.76	4.91	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	SEA	5	5	33	139	28	8	4	100%	6.6	19.9%	6.0%	13.9%	2.7%	4.08	4.05	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	SEA	7	7	50	211	43	13	6	100%	7.1	20.4%	6.1%	14.3%	2.7%	4.05	4.02	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	56	236	48	15	7	100%	7.0	20.5%	6.2%	14.2%	2.8%	4.07	4.07	+0.9
2031	28	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	58	245	50	16	7	100%	7.2	20.4%	6.4%	14.0%	2.9%	4.12	4.16	+0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	56	236	48	16	7	100%	7.0	20.1%	6.7%	13.5%	3.0%	4.22	4.29	+0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	58	245	53	15	8	100%	7.2	21.8%	6.2%	15.6%	3.2%	4.20	4.19	+0.8
2034	31	MLB CTX	SEA	7	7	52	220	47	14	8	100%	7.4	21.4%	6.5%	14.9%	3.4%	4.31	4.39	+0.6
2035	32	MLB CTX	SEA	6	6	46	194	41	13	7	100%	7.7	20.9%	6.9%	14.0%	3.7%	4.49	4.61	+0.4
2036	33	MLB CTX	SEA	5	5	39	165	34	12	7	100%	7.8	20.4%	7.3%	13.1%	4.0%	4.70	4.85	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	63	449	1895	392	122	60	100%	7.1	20.7%	6.5%	14.2%	3.1%	4.24	3.90	+8.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		28	28	200	844	175	54	27	100%	7.1	20.7%	6.5%	14.2%	3.1%	4.24	3.90	+3.6
Career	—	MLE		24	14	100	423	74	24	8	58%	4.2	17.5%	5.6%	11.9%	1.8%	3.69	3.34	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	28	200	846	148	47	16	58%	4.2	17.5%	5.6%	11.9%	1.8%	3.69	3.34	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AInland Empire 66ers · 100 IPFIP 2.48 → 3.34 (+0.86)K% 23.6% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.64%	—	×0.740	17.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.73%	—	×1.180	5.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.84%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.48 → 3.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Bowery (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.17	18.8%	5.9%	2.8%	—	4.09	20.2%	14.1%	227	-0.08	—	—	—
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	82
Billy Traber L 2003 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.5%	7.2%	3.0%	.321	4.17	12.4%	6.5%	43	+0.00	3.75	211	81
Jordan Carr L 2022 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	4.01	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.15	3.49	269	78
Carson Teel L 2019 · 3.43 FIP	23	SP-	3.43	17.2%	8.8%	1.2%	.292	4.86	16.9%	10.0%	144	+1.43	3.43	248	77
Logan Darnell L 2014 · 4.78 FIP	25	SP-	4.78	19.6%	7.1%	4.4%	.338	4.10	13.4%	6.1%	262	-0.68	3.16	454	77
Dallas Braden L 2008 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP-	4.38	13.6%	7.6%	2.7%	.301	3.79	14.5%	8.5%	347	-0.59	3.64	491	77
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	77
Ben Shields L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	25	SP-	3.23	25.3%	8.2%	2.2%	.273	3.02	23.5%	13.3%	43	-0.21	3.02	147	77
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	77
Clayton Richard L 2008 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	13.5%	5.1%	2.3%	.329	4.01	16.4%	7.2%	454	+0.12	3.56	1,348	76
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	76
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	76
Matt Tomshaw L 2015 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	13.8%	6.0%	2.2%	.318	3.57	16.0%	10.7%	401	-0.34	3.04	681	76
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	76
Antonio Velez L 2021 · 3.58 FIP	24	SP-	3.58	19.0%	3.3%	3.0%	.241	5.02	19.3%	12.9%	88	+1.44	3.58	187	76
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	75
Nick Routt L 2015 · 3.02 FIP	24	SP-	3.02	14.5%	6.5%	0.6%	.340	3.89	15.4%	6.1%	104	+0.87	3.02	195	75
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	75
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	75
Hunter Patteson L 2024 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP-	4.41	18.5%	6.0%	3.9%	.302	5.32	16.3%	6.0%	239	+0.91	3.16	346	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	64	20.4%	6.4%	1.21	4.25
Jon Rauch ('13)	3.0	60	19.0%	7.2%	1.06	3.90
Junichi Tazawa ('18)	2.0	49	22.2%	6.5%	1.12	4.12
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*
Joel Peralta ('16)	3.2	54	23.0%	7.0%	1.32	4.03
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*