David Sanchez — OGILVIE

David Sanchez P ACL D-backs

Age 19 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.0 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.86

FIP5.86

K%12.9%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%-1.4%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$1.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	16	0	19	94	17	15	1	0%	1.2	12.3%	19.9%	-7.6%	1.7%	6.52	5.50	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	16	0	19	94	17	15	1	0%	1.2	12.3%	19.9%	-7.6%	1.7%	6.52	5.50	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	16	0	19	94	17	15	1	0%	1.2	18.1%	16.0%	2.1%	1.1%	6.52	4.34	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	12	8	50	221	42	19	7	67%	4.2	12.9%	10.7%	2.2%	4.0%	6.48	5.54	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	12	8	50	221	42	19	7	67%	4.2	12.9%	10.7%	2.2%	4.0%	6.48	5.54	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	12	8	50	221	42	19	7	67%	4.2	19.0%	8.6%	10.4%	3.2%	6.48	4.38	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	14	13	51	238	37	28	5	93%	3.7	10.0%	12.5%	-2.5%	3.3%	5.96	5.67	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	14	13	51	238	37	28	5	93%	3.7	10.0%	12.5%	-2.5%	3.3%	5.96	5.67	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	ARI	12	11	47	210	31	21	5	92%	3.9	14.8%	10.0%	4.8%	2.4%	5.17	4.43	—
2026	19	A RAW	ARI	2	2	4	28	6	7	0	100%	2.1	21.4%	25.0%	-3.6%	0.0%	14.54	4.46	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	ARI	10	10	53	223	34	29	7	100%	5.3	15.1%	13.2%	1.9%	3.0%	5.59	5.51	-0.4
2028	21	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	55	234	39	29	7	100%	5.0	16.5%	12.4%	4.1%	2.9%	5.35	5.26	-0.2
2029	22	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	58	246	44	29	7	100%	5.3	18.0%	11.7%	6.3%	2.9%	5.13	5.02	-0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	60	255	48	29	7	100%	5.5	18.8%	11.3%	7.5%	2.8%	4.97	4.87	+0.0
2031	24	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	62	261	51	29	7	100%	5.6	19.4%	11.1%	8.3%	2.8%	4.86	4.78	+0.1
2032	25	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	63	265	52	29	7	100%	5.7	19.8%	11.0%	8.8%	2.8%	4.78	4.72	+0.1
2033	26	MLB MLE	ARI	10	10	63	265	53	29	7	100%	6.3	20.0%	10.9%	9.0%	2.8%	4.73	4.70	+0.1
2034	27	MLB MLE	ARI	10	10	62	261	52	29	7	100%	6.2	20.0%	11.0%	9.0%	2.8%	4.73	4.74	+0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	ARI	5	5	26	110	17	14	3	100%	5.2	15.1%	13.2%	1.9%	2.8%	5.50	5.42	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	ARI	8	8	40	169	28	21	5	100%	5.0	16.5%	12.4%	4.1%	2.8%	5.26	5.17	-0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	49	207	37	24	6	100%	4.9	18.0%	11.7%	6.3%	2.7%	5.04	4.93	-0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	54	228	43	26	6	100%	5.4	18.8%	11.3%	7.5%	2.7%	4.88	4.78	+0.0
2031	24	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	57	241	47	27	6	100%	5.7	19.4%	11.1%	8.3%	2.6%	4.78	4.70	+0.1
2032	25	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	59	249	49	27	7	100%	5.9	19.8%	11.0%	8.8%	2.6%	4.70	4.64	+0.1
2033	26	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	60	253	51	28	7	100%	6.0	20.0%	10.9%	9.0%	2.6%	4.65	4.62	+0.1
2034	27	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	59	249	50	27	7	100%	5.9	20.0%	11.0%	9.0%	2.7%	4.64	4.65	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	73	404	1704	320	194	46	100%	5.5	18.8%	11.4%	7.4%	2.7%	4.87	4.42	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	159	96	23	100%	5.5	18.8%	11.4%	7.4%	2.7%	4.87	4.42	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		42	21	121	553	64	72	18	50%	2.9	11.6%	13.1%	-1.5%	3.3%	6.27	5.59	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	35	200	917	106	120	30	50%	2.9	11.6%	13.1%	-1.5%	3.3%	6.27	5.59	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Sanchez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.86	12.9%	14.3%	3.0%	—	5.26	16.6%	4.2%	166	-0.60	—	—	—
Miguel Vinicio R 2019 · 5.69 FIP	19	SP-	5.69	13.8%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	3.99	16.9%	1.4%	47	-1.70	3.63	164	89
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	87
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	86
Maiker Manuel R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	19	SP-	5.12	12.3%	15.2%	2.1%	.329	4.59	15.2%	6.7%	101	-0.53	4.56	148	86
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	86
Yosber Sanchez R 2019 · 5.58 FIP	18	SP-	5.58	14.6%	14.9%	3.3%	.315	4.61	20.2%	-5.2%	13	-0.97	3.21	199	86
Harold Chirino R 2017 · 6.05 FIP	19	SP-	6.05	13.2%	16.0%	3.7%	.327	3.11	19.0%	6.2%	34	-2.94	3.11	321	85
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	85
Blas Castaño R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	19	SP-	4.68	10.8%	13.2%	1.5%	.307	4.22	13.1%	7.2%	105	-0.46	3.06	633	85
Gillian Wernet R 2018 · 5.46 FIP	19	SP-	5.46	11.2%	16.6%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	107	85
Luis De Jesus R 2018 · 6.00 FIP	19	SP-	6.00	11.9%	15.6%	3.5%	.274	6.24	12.9%	-8.4%	21	+0.24	4.19	108	84
Alexander Vizcaíno R 2016 · 5.40 FIP	19	SP-	5.40	11.8%	10.4%	3.6%	.321	4.82	17.3%	7.0%	220	-0.58	3.85	273	84
Josh Swales R 2022 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	11.8%	14.6%	2.9%	.356	5.64	15.1%	1.4%	66	+0.13	5.51	129	84
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	83
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	83
Xavier Javier R 2017 · 6.80 FIP	19	SP-	6.80	6.7%	23.8%	2.3%	.289	5.53	11.0%	-7.1%	65	-1.27	4.47	188	83
Chad Bryant R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	19	SP-	4.96	12.8%	13.3%	2.3%	.345	5.43	14.4%	-4.5%	49	+0.47	3.93	136	83
Jose Pena Jr. R 2022 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP-	5.48	15.0%	18.7%	2.3%	.269	4.62	19.2%	3.1%	124	-0.86	3.48	176	82
Daury Cabrera R 2019 · 5.19 FIP	18	SP-	5.19	10.4%	10.6%	3.0%	.286	5.13	12.2%	-0.2%	95	-0.06	2.86	191	82
Jesus Lopez R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	18	SP-	5.20	7.5%	14.5%	1.6%	.347	4.78	13.0%	2.1%	80	-0.42	4.48	113	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	56	18.2%	11.7%	1.10	5.05
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04