Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Yankees | 11 | 7 | 40 | 189 | 30 | 20 | 2 | 64% | 3.6 | 10.8% | 13.2% | -2.4% | 1.5% | 5.40 | 4.68 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Yankees | 11 | 7 | 40 | 189 | 30 | 20 | 2 | 64% | 3.6 | 15.9% | 10.6% | 5.3% | 1.1% | 5.40 | 3.75 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Yankees West | 14 | 10 | 67 | 294 | 41 | 14 | 7 | 71% | 4.8 | 9.5% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.05 | 4.88 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Yankees West | 14 | 10 | 67 | 294 | 41 | 14 | 7 | 71% | 4.8 | 13.9% | 4.8% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 4.05 | 3.87 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 8 | 45 | 191 | 55 | 10 | 2 | 80% | 4.5 | 19.3% | 5.7% | 13.6% | 1.6% | 4.17 | 3.06 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 8 | 45 | 191 | 55 | 10 | 2 | 80% | 4.5 | 28.8% | 5.2% | 23.6% | 1.0% | 4.17 | 1.91 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 107 | 465 | 103 | 34 | 12 | 95% | 4.9 | 17.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 2.2% | 3.86 | 3.89 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 107 | 465 | 103 | 34 | 12 | 95% | 4.9 | 22.2% | 7.3% | 14.8% | 2.6% | 3.86 | 3.58 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 11 | 78 | 336 | 75 | 35 | 8 | 42% | 3.0 | 18.2% | 12.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.37 | 5.41 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 11 | 78 | 336 | 75 | 35 | 8 | 42% | 3.0 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 2.4% | 4.37 | 3.85 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 26 | 125 | 540 | 108 | 43 | 15 | 90% | 4.3 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.25 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 26 | 125 | 540 | 108 | 43 | 15 | 90% | 4.3 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 3.96 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 24 | 130 | 562 | 98 | 53 | 15 | 80% | 4.3 | 15.6% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 5.28 | 4.12 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 24 | 130 | 562 | 98 | 53 | 15 | 80% | 4.3 | 17.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 5.28 | 4.32 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 29 | 0 | 43 | 166 | 33 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.0% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 2.49 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | 111 | 0 | 117 | 493 | 84 | 48 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +1.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | 111 | 0 | 117 | 494 | 84 | 48 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +1.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 160 | 659 | 117 | 62 | 19 | — | — | 17.8% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 3.88 | 4.45 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 137 | 580 | 117 | 62 | 19 | — | — | 20.2% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.50 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 23 | 23 | 150 | 632 | 110 | 59 | 19 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.5% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.84 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 22 | 22 | 143 | 604 | 106 | 57 | 19 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 4.87 | 4.93 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 21 | 21 | 134 | 567 | 99 | 55 | 19 | 100% | 6.4 | 17.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 4.98 | 5.07 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 22 | 22 | 142 | 600 | 105 | 56 | 18 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.5% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.84 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 21 | 21 | 136 | 574 | 101 | 54 | 18 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 4.87 | 4.93 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 20 | 20 | 128 | 540 | 94 | 52 | 18 | 100% | 6.4 | 17.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 4.98 | 5.07 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 186 | 64 | 546 | 2307 | 402 | 218 | 73 | 34% | 2.9 | 17.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.56 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 23 | 200 | 845 | 147 | 80 | 27 | 34% | 2.9 | 17.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.56 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 171 | 107 | 636 | 2743 | 438 | 249 | 72 | 63% | 3.7 | 16.0% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 4.36 | 4.34 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 34 | 200 | 863 | 138 | 78 | 23 | 63% | 3.7 | 16.0% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 4.36 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Blas Castaño (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 2.6% | — | 4.94 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 427 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 76 |
| Aldo Montes R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 75 | -0.24 | 4.41 | 210 | 74 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.53 | 13.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.50 | 119 | 74 |
| Paul Clemens R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 72 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 72 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 71 |
| Justin Topa R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 71 |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 71 |
| Andres Santiago R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .384 | 5.45 | 13.1% | 3.2% | 159 | +1.18 | 3.74 | 291 | 71 |
| Colby Morris R 2024 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 71 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 71 |
| Kyle Lloyd R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .336 | 4.33 | 17.2% | 9.3% | 110 | +0.16 | 3.46 | 572 | 70 |
| Chase Whitley R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.04 | 19.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .217 | 3.24 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 81 | -0.80 | 3.11 | 159 | 70 |
| Max Beatty R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.69 | 13.2% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 117 | 69 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 68 |
| Zac Kristofak R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.03 | 11.4% | 6.8% | 3.7% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 168 | 68 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.20 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 416 | 68 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 67 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 67 |
| Joel Seddon R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.69 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 3.2% | .390 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 474 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 141 | 17.2% | 9.6% | 1.18 | 4.86 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |