Lucas Mahlstedt — OGILVIE

Lucas Mahlstedt P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 40 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%22.6%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP40

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	44	0	60	250	70	20	3	0%	1.4	21.4%	9.2%	12.2%	1.5%	3.45	3.29	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	44	0	60	250	70	20	3	0%	1.4	21.4%	9.2%	12.2%	1.5%	3.45	3.29	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	LAA	2	0	3	12	7	0	0	0%	1.4	58.3%	0.0%	58.3%	0.0%	6.75	-1.83	—
2026	23	AA RAW	LAA	42	0	57	238	63	20	3	0%	1.4	26.5%	8.4%	18.1%	1.3%	3.30	2.62	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	LAA	57	0	60	255	59	23	7	0%	1.1	23.2%	8.9%	14.3%	2.9%	4.28	4.24	+0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	LAA	58	0	61	258	61	22	7	0%	1.1	23.6%	8.7%	14.9%	2.9%	4.22	4.18	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	LAA	58	0	61	258	61	22	7	0%	1.1	23.8%	8.7%	15.1%	2.9%	4.19	4.16	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	LAA	57	0	60	254	60	22	8	0%	1.1	23.8%	8.8%	15.0%	3.0%	4.20	4.21	+0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	LAA	25	0	26	110	25	10	3	0%	1.0	23.2%	8.9%	14.3%	2.9%	4.28	4.24	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	LAA	39	0	41	173	41	15	5	0%	1.1	23.6%	8.7%	14.9%	2.9%	4.22	4.18	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	LAA	47	0	49	207	49	18	6	0%	1.0	23.8%	8.7%	15.1%	2.9%	4.19	4.16	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	LAA	49	0	51	215	51	19	6	0%	1.0	23.8%	8.8%	15.0%	3.0%	4.20	4.21	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		159	0	167	706	167	62	21	0%	1.1	23.6%	8.7%	14.9%	2.9%	4.21	3.81	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	200	74	25	0%	1.1	23.6%	8.7%	14.9%	2.9%	4.21	3.81	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		44	0	60	250	54	23	4	0%	1.4	21.4%	9.2%	12.2%	1.5%	3.45	3.29	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	0	200	833	179	77	13	0%	1.4	21.4%	9.2%	12.2%	1.5%	3.45	3.29	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Mahlstedt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	22.6%	9.2%	2.9%	—	4.19	23.5%	14.8%	182	-0.16	—	—	—
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	93
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	93
Carlos Navas R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	23	SU	3.67	22.0%	8.4%	2.5%	.283	3.52	22.0%	16.1%	229	-0.15	2.98	385	92
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	91
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	90
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	90
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	89
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	89
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	89
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	89
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	89
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	89
Ronnie Muck R 2015 · 3.24 FIP	23	SU	3.24	22.1%	8.7%	1.7%	.316	4.63	15.0%	0.3%	75	+1.39	3.24	137	88
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	88
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	88
Johnny Barbato R 2015 · 3.57 FIP	23	SU	3.57	21.3%	9.4%	2.0%	.284	4.32	21.6%	11.4%	167	+0.75	2.59	304	87
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	87
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	87
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	87
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	57	23.4%	8.8%	1.13	4.24
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93