Sean Matson — OGILVIE

Sean Matson P Akron RubberDucks

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 221 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%20.5%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%11.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	7	87	348	96	27	4	25%	3.1	20.6%	9.1%	11.6%	1.4%	2.08	3.26	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	7	87	348	96	27	4	25%	3.1	20.6%	9.1%	11.6%	1.4%	2.08	3.26	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	7	87	348	96	27	4	25%	3.1	27.6%	7.8%	19.8%	1.1%	2.08	2.42	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	36	5	70	323	72	34	14	14%	1.9	17.2%	12.3%	5.0%	4.2%	7.23	5.49	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	36	5	70	323	72	34	14	14%	1.9	17.2%	12.3%	5.0%	4.2%	7.23	5.49	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	CLE	6	0	7	26	9	1	2	0%	1.1	34.6%	3.8%	30.8%	7.7%	4.05	4.89	—
2026	24	AA RAW	CLE	29	5	61	287	61	32	10	17%	2.1	21.3%	11.1%	10.1%	3.5%	7.23	4.63	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	CLE	1	0	2	10	2	1	2	0%	2.0	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	20.0%	18.00	13.66	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CLE	5	0	6	24	5	2	1	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.6%	11.9%	2.7%	4.35	4.35	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	75	347	77	36	15	—	—	22.2%	10.4%	11.8%	4.2%	7.02	5.41	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CLE	75	0	79	334	71	28	9	0%	1.1	21.2%	8.4%	12.8%	2.8%	4.29	4.26	+0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	CLE	75	0	79	334	72	28	9	0%	1.1	21.6%	8.4%	13.2%	2.8%	4.26	4.24	+0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	CLE	74	0	78	328	71	28	9	0%	1.1	21.7%	8.5%	13.1%	2.8%	4.28	4.28	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	CLE	72	0	76	319	69	28	9	0%	1.0	21.6%	8.7%	12.9%	2.9%	4.34	4.37	+0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	CLE	69	0	72	304	65	27	9	0%	1.0	21.3%	8.9%	12.4%	3.1%	4.44	4.50	+0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	CLE	65	0	68	286	60	26	9	0%	1.0	21.0%	9.2%	11.8%	3.3%	4.58	4.68	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	CLE	33	0	35	148	31	12	4	0%	1.1	21.2%	8.4%	12.8%	2.8%	4.29	4.26	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	CLE	50	0	53	224	48	19	6	0%	1.1	21.6%	8.4%	13.2%	2.8%	4.26	4.24	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	CLE	57	0	60	253	55	22	7	0%	1.1	21.7%	8.5%	13.1%	2.8%	4.28	4.28	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	CLE	61	0	64	270	58	23	8	0%	1.0	21.6%	8.7%	12.9%	2.9%	4.34	4.37	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	CLE	60	0	63	266	57	24	8	0%	1.1	21.3%	8.9%	12.4%	3.1%	4.44	4.50	+0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	CLE	58	0	61	258	54	24	8	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.2%	11.8%	3.3%	4.58	4.68	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		320	0	336	1418	303	124	42	0%	1.0	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	3.0%	4.37	4.02	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	74	25	0%	1.0	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	3.0%	4.37	4.02	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		64	12	156	671	127	71	18	19%	2.4	19.0%	10.6%	8.4%	2.7%	4.38	4.34	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	15	200	858	163	91	23	19%	2.4	19.0%	10.6%	8.4%	2.7%	4.38	4.34	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Matson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	20.5%	8.6%	2.7%	—	4.26	21.5%	13.1%	236	-0.09	—	—	—
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	91
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	89
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	88
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	86
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	86
T.J. Weir R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	24	SW	3.97	20.0%	9.1%	2.5%	.319	3.43	19.0%	9.6%	190	-0.54	3.15	349	86
Carlo Reyes R 2022 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.4%	8.6%	2.9%	.318	3.92	24.1%	12.9%	61	-0.14	2.60	229	85
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	85
Jaycob Deese R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	17.4%	6.8%	4.0%	.309	4.83	13.6%	4.4%	140	+0.15	3.28	208	84
Tai Tiedemann R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	23	SU	3.87	17.5%	9.8%	1.8%	.305	5.78	9.8%	-0.2%	118	+1.91	3.87	190	84
J.C. Flowers R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	24	SU	4.02	17.6%	8.9%	2.3%	.263	5.44	15.6%	-0.3%	133	+1.42	3.59	281	84
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	84
Kaleb Fontenot R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	24	SU	4.48	20.7%	8.6%	3.7%	.264	3.71	14.7%	5.2%	69	-0.77	3.71	155	84
Tyler Joyner R 2019 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	20.7%	9.9%	2.0%	.250	6.38	16.1%	5.2%	37	+2.69	3.69	114	83
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	83
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	83
Joshua Loeschorn R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	24.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.272	4.43	17.1%	8.4%	83	+0.57	3.08	151	83
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	83
Eric Karch R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	16.0%	6.2%	2.3%	.324	4.70	20.3%	16.1%	35	+0.92	3.78	104	83
Matt Wotherspoon R 2016 · 3.34 FIP	24	SU	3.34	19.6%	9.5%	1.3%	.254	4.25	22.7%	13.5%	233	+0.91	2.96	419	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	74	21.3%	8.7%	1.13	4.36
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38