Sean Matson
P
Akron RubberDucks
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 221 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
K%20.5%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%11.8%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 108 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 7 | 87 | 348 | 96 | 27 | 4 | 25% | 3.1 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 1.3% | 2.08 | 3.23 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 7 | 87 | 348 | 96 | 27 | 4 | 25% | 3.1 | 27.6% | 7.8% | 19.8% | 1.1% | 2.08 | 2.42 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 26 | 0 | 41 | 177 | 45 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 19.5% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 4.83 | 2.83 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CLE | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 58 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CLE | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 108 | 461 | 103 | 41 | 12 | — | — | 22.4% | 8.9% | 13.5% | 2.6% | 4.54 | 3.78 | +2.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.5% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 3.98 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 61 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 62 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 61 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 8.6% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 48 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 8.6% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 123 | 0 | 129 | 543 | 117 | 46 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 3.89 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 182 | 72 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 3.89 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 54 | 7 | 128 | 525 | 106 | 51 | 5 | 13% | 2.4 | 20.3% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 0.9% | 2.96 | 3.10 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 11 | 200 | 822 | 167 | 80 | 7 | 13% | 2.4 | 20.3% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 0.9% | 2.96 | 3.10 | +5.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sean Matson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 20.5% | 8.8% | 2.7% | — | 4.27 | 21.5% | 13.0% | 203 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 89 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 89 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 278 | 88 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 88 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.44 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.6% | .264 | 3.56 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.88 | 3.56 | 155 | 88 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 87 |
| Tyler Joyner R 2025 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.67 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 1.9% | .250 | 5.82 | 16.1% | 5.2% | 37 | +2.15 | 3.67 | 114 | 87 |
| Bryan Pope R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.87 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .332 | 5.00 | 12.7% | -0.3% | 22 | +1.13 | 3.87 | 148 | 86 |
| Josh Advocate R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.58 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.59 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 75 | +0.01 | 3.58 | 118 | 86 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.92 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 2.2% | .263 | 5.66 | 16.1% | -1.3% | 133 | +1.74 | 3.39 | 281 | 86 |
| Ben Vespi R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 1.5% | .370 | 4.79 | 18.4% | 12.5% | 39 | +1.53 | 3.26 | 102 | 85 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.17 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.68 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 95 | +0.51 | 3.17 | 153 | 85 |
| Alex Phillips R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.23 | 3.26 | 139 | 85 |
| J.R. Graham R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.55 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 61 | -0.83 | 3.30 | 125 | 85 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.33 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .293 | 4.70 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 115 | +1.37 | 3.33 | 258 | 85 |
| Isaac Sanchez R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.65 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 1.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 130 | 85 |
| Nick Merkel R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.3% | .284 | 3.25 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 125 | -0.65 | 3.08 | 201 | 85 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 85 |
| Eric Karch R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 16.0% | 6.2% | 2.2% | .324 | 5.07 | 20.3% | 16.1% | 35 | +1.33 | 3.74 | 104 | 84 |
| Joshua Loeschorn R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .272 | 4.60 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 67 | +0.86 | 3.04 | 135 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 21.2% | 8.6% | 1.07 | 4.30 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Adam Warren ('19) | 5 | 67 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 1.08 | 3.55 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |