Matthew Watson

P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 25 RHP A+ peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	24	MIX2 levels	22	18	80	6.39	4.95	17.2%	10.8%	—	K 13.4% · BB 12.3% · FIP 5.68
2027PROJ	25	MLBSD	10	10	56	5.54	5.54	14.8%	12.0%	-0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBSD	5	5	31	5.36	5.32	16.8%	11.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSD	8	8	45	5.28	5.28	17.3%	11.6%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRyan Jensen (age 25) · Denny Bautista (age 25) · J.P. Massey (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%14.8%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%2.8%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	80	378	65	41	12	82%	3.7	13.4%	12.3%	1.0%	3.9%	6.39	5.68	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	80	378	65	41	12	82%	3.7	13.4%	12.3%	1.0%	3.9%	6.39	5.68	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	18	80	378	65	41	12	82%	3.7	17.2%	10.8%	6.3%	3.2%	6.39	4.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SD	10	10	56	236	35	28	8	100%	5.6	14.8%	12.0%	2.8%	3.3%	5.54	5.54	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	72	305	51	36	10	100%	6.0	16.8%	11.7%	5.2%	3.2%	5.36	5.32	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	71	301	52	35	10	100%	5.9	17.3%	11.6%	5.8%	3.3%	5.28	5.28	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	69	292	51	34	10	100%	5.8	17.5%	11.6%	5.9%	3.4%	5.28	5.32	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	SD	11	11	66	279	48	33	10	100%	6.0	17.4%	11.8%	5.6%	3.5%	5.35	5.42	-0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	62	262	45	32	10	100%	6.2	17.1%	12.1%	5.0%	3.7%	5.50	5.60	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	SD	5	5	31	131	22	15	4	100%	6.2	16.8%	11.7%	5.2%	3.2%	5.36	5.32	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	45	190	33	22	6	100%	5.6	17.3%	11.6%	5.8%	3.3%	5.28	5.28	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	52	220	38	25	7	100%	5.8	17.5%	11.6%	5.9%	3.4%	5.28	5.32	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	54	228	40	27	8	100%	6.0	17.4%	11.8%	5.6%	3.5%	5.35	5.42	-0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	53	224	38	27	8	100%	5.9	17.1%	12.1%	5.0%	3.7%	5.50	5.60	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	39	235	991	171	116	34	100%	6.0	17.2%	11.7%	5.5%	3.4%	5.36	5.02	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	146	99	29	100%	6.0	17.2%	11.7%	5.5%	3.4%	5.36	5.02	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		22	18	80	378	51	47	15	82%	3.7	13.4%	12.3%	1.0%	3.9%	6.39	5.68	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	45	200	941	126	116	37	82%	3.7	13.4%	12.3%	1.0%	3.9%	6.39	5.68	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matthew Watson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	14.8%	12.0%	3.3%	—	5.31	17.2%	5.6%	213	-0.23	—	—	—
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	86
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	83
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	82
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	82
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	81
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	81
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	81
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	80
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	80
Johendí Jiminian R 2018 · 5.25 FIP	25	SP	5.25	14.0%	11.4%	3.5%	.282	4.41	13.9%	4.4%	94	-0.84	4.01	419	80
Lauro Ramirez R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	25	SP-	5.80	9.5%	10.1%	4.1%	.382	4.99	7.2%	-3.4%	90	-0.81	4.99	140	79
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	79
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	79
Bryce Warrecker R 2024 · 5.43 FIP	22	SP	5.43	11.3%	11.7%	3.3%	.271	3.82	20.1%	9.6%	91	-1.61	2.47	154	79
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	78
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	78
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	78
Ike Buxton R 2024 · 4.45 FIP	24	SP	4.45	15.4%	13.1%	1.8%	.341	4.97	13.8%	-5.5%	46	+0.52	4.45	196	78
Jason Grilli R 2001 · 5.93 FIP	24	SP	5.93	14.8%	9.6%	5.2%	.296	6.24	12.8%	2.9%	45	+0.31	2.00	678	78
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	66	16.9%	11.8%	1.31	5.38
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*