Kellan Oakes

P Asheville Tourists

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 201 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	21	13	76	6.75	4.59	24.8%	11.3%	—	K 18.7% · BB 13.0% · FIP 5.69
2027PROJ	23	MLBHOU	9	9	53	5.33	5.33	19.4%	12.6%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBHOU	5	5	30	5.06	4.98	20.6%	11.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBHOU	8	8	47	4.89	4.81	21.2%	10.6%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 91%

CompsNoah Skirrow (age 23) · Tanner Hall (age 22) · Noah Denoyer (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%19.4%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%6.8%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	13	76	355	88	40	13	62%	3.6	18.7%	13.0%	5.7%	4.6%	6.75	5.69	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	13	76	355	88	40	13	62%	3.6	18.7%	13.0%	5.7%	4.6%	6.75	5.69	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	13	76	355	88	40	13	62%	3.6	24.8%	11.3%	13.5%	3.7%	6.75	4.59	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	HOU	9	9	53	224	43	28	8	100%	5.9	19.4%	12.6%	6.8%	3.4%	5.33	5.33	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	70	296	61	34	10	100%	5.8	20.6%	11.3%	9.2%	3.4%	5.11	5.03	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	71	300	64	32	10	100%	5.9	21.2%	10.6%	10.6%	3.3%	4.94	4.86	+0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	71	300	64	31	10	100%	5.9	21.5%	10.5%	11.1%	3.3%	4.85	4.81	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	70	295	64	31	10	100%	5.8	21.5%	10.5%	11.0%	3.4%	4.83	4.83	+0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	68	286	61	30	10	100%	6.2	21.4%	10.7%	10.8%	3.5%	4.88	4.92	-0.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	65	273	58	30	10	100%	5.9	21.2%	10.9%	10.3%	3.6%	4.98	5.05	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	5	5	30	127	26	14	4	100%	6.0	20.6%	11.3%	9.2%	3.3%	5.06	4.98	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	47	198	42	21	6	100%	5.9	21.2%	10.6%	10.6%	3.2%	4.89	4.81	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	56	236	51	25	8	100%	6.2	21.5%	10.5%	11.1%	3.2%	4.80	4.76	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	60	253	55	27	8	100%	6.0	21.5%	10.5%	11.0%	3.3%	4.78	4.78	+0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	60	253	54	27	9	100%	6.0	21.4%	10.7%	10.8%	3.4%	4.83	4.87	-0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	59	249	53	27	9	100%	5.9	21.2%	10.9%	10.3%	3.5%	4.93	5.00	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	52	312	1319	281	141	44	100%	6.0	21.3%	10.7%	10.6%	3.3%	4.86	4.48	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	180	90	28	100%	6.0	21.3%	10.7%	10.6%	3.3%	4.86	4.48	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		21	13	76	355	67	46	16	62%	3.6	18.7%	13.0%	5.7%	4.6%	6.75	5.69	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	34	200	934	175	122	43	62%	3.6	18.7%	13.0%	5.7%	4.6%	6.75	5.69	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kellan Oakes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	19.4%	12.6%	3.4%	—	4.90	21.1%	10.3%	212	-0.43	—	—	—
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	92
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	90
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	89
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	88
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	87
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	86
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	84
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	84
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	83
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	83
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	83
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	82
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	82
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.37	21.6%	11.0%	274	-0.92	3.36	374	82
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	82
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	82
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	82
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	81
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	67	21.0%	10.9%	1.32	4.98
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*