Ryan Lambert

P Syracuse Mets

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 222 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECTFG #523

Scout OFP40ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	A+NYM	2	0	3	0.00	1.43	33.3%	8.3%	—	K 33.3% · BB 8.3% · FIP 1.34
2025	22	MIX2 levels	46	0	50	1.62	1.74	39.5%	13.2%	—	K 29.3% · BB 16.2% · FIP 3.05
2026	23	MIX3 levels	32	1	29	8.07	5.69	26.8%	23.2%	—	K 22.0% · BB 20.2% · FIP 5.73
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYM	86	0	90	5.20	5.20	26.8%	18.9%	-0.7
2028PROJ48% MLB	25	MLBNYM	42	0	44	4.98	4.89	26.7%	16.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ69% MLB	26	MLBNYM	60	0	63	4.86	4.82	26.6%	15.7%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff58Control40Command35FB velo75

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 87%

CompsCaleb Simpson (age 25) · Andrew McInvale (age 24) · Dennis Sarfate (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%26.8%

BB%18.9%

K-BB%7.9%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5060

CTRL—40

CMD3035

K†6065

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	2	0	3	12	4	1	0	0%	1.5	33.3%	8.3%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.34	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	2	0	3	12	4	1	0	0%	1.5	33.3%	8.3%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.34	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Brooklyn Cyclones	2	0	3	12	4	1	0	0%	1.5	33.3%	8.3%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.43	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	50	205	81	27	1	0%	1.1	29.3%	16.2%	13.1%	0.7%	1.62	3.05	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	50	205	81	27	1	0%	1.1	29.3%	16.2%	13.1%	0.7%	1.62	3.05	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	50	205	81	27	1	0%	1.1	39.5%	13.2%	26.3%	0.5%	1.62	1.74	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	1	29	142	38	33	4	3%	0.9	22.0%	20.2%	1.9%	3.5%	8.07	5.73	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	1	29	142	38	33	4	3%	0.9	22.0%	20.2%	1.9%	3.5%	8.07	5.73	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	1	29	142	38	33	4	3%	0.9	26.8%	23.2%	3.5%	2.8%	8.07	5.69	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYM	86	0	90	380	102	72	11	0%	1.0	26.8%	18.9%	7.9%	2.9%	5.20	5.20	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	87	0	91	385	103	63	11	0%	1.0	26.7%	16.4%	10.3%	2.9%	4.98	4.89	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYM	87	0	91	385	102	60	11	0%	1.0	26.6%	15.7%	10.9%	2.9%	4.86	4.82	-0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYM	85	0	90	379	100	58	11	0%	1.1	26.3%	15.4%	10.9%	3.0%	4.83	4.83	-0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYM	83	0	87	367	96	56	11	0%	1.0	26.1%	15.3%	10.8%	3.1%	4.87	4.90	-0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYM	79	0	83	351	91	55	11	0%	1.1	25.9%	15.6%	10.3%	3.2%	4.97	5.03	-0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYM	74	0	78	330	91	50	11	0%	1.1	27.5%	15.0%	12.5%	3.4%	4.95	4.94	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	42	0	44	186	50	30	5	0%	1.0	26.7%	16.4%	10.3%	2.9%	4.98	4.89	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYM	60	0	63	266	71	42	8	0%	1.1	26.6%	15.7%	10.9%	2.9%	4.86	4.82	-0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYM	68	0	71	300	79	46	9	0%	1.0	26.3%	15.4%	10.9%	3.0%	4.83	4.83	-0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYM	70	0	74	312	82	48	10	0%	1.1	26.1%	15.3%	10.8%	3.1%	4.87	4.90	-0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYM	70	0	73	308	80	48	10	0%	1.0	25.9%	15.6%	10.3%	3.2%	4.97	5.03	-0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYM	68	0	71	300	82	45	10	0%	1.0	27.5%	15.0%	12.5%	3.4%	4.95	4.94	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		377	0	396	1673	443	259	52	0%	1.1	26.5%	15.5%	11.0%	3.1%	4.91	4.52	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	224	131	26	0%	1.1	26.5%	15.5%	11.0%	3.1%	4.91	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		80	1	82	359	95	63	6	1%	1.0	26.5%	17.5%	9.1%	1.8%	3.84	4.05	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		195	2	200	876	232	153	16	1%	1.0	26.5%	17.5%	9.1%	1.8%	3.84	4.05	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Lambert (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	26.8%	18.9%	2.9%	—	4.85	26.5%	10.7%	272	-0.35	—	—	—
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	84
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	83
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	82
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	81
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	81
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	80
Eduardo Herrera R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.5%	15.7%	2.2%	.284	4.44	16.7%	-5.0%	31	+0.31	4.13	127	79
Shane Broyles R 2016 · 4.03 FIP	24	SU	4.03	24.3%	15.3%	1.9%	.328	3.62	26.4%	17.1%	108	-0.41	3.34	218	79
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	79
Jonathan Sprinkle R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	24	SU	4.18	24.8%	16.3%	2.0%	.331	6.20	17.4%	-5.5%	26	+2.02	3.81	109	79
Riley Ferrell R 2018 · 4.38 FIP	24	SU	4.38	24.1%	15.6%	2.5%	.333	4.21	23.1%	7.4%	55	-0.17	2.85	175	79
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	79
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	78
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	78
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	77
Justin Yeager R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	29.6%	15.8%	3.6%	.230	3.38	19.6%	9.2%	108	-1.20	3.32	265	77
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	77
Pat Light R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.37	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.03	4.10	172	77
Isaac Stebens R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	24.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.328	4.14	21.1%	5.6%	50	+0.01	4.13	102	77
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	26.5%	16.1%	1.18	4.95
George Smith ('26-'30, -3 WAR*)	1.7	66	22.6%*	14.5%*	1.13*	5.29*
Dan Warthen ('75-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.5	102	24.8%*	14.2%*	1.27*	4.86*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
John D'Acquisto ('73-'82, -3 WAR*)	3.9	97	25.1%*	15.1%*	0.92*	5.36*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82