Isaac Ponce

C ACL Padres

Age 20 R/R 6'2" / 192 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKDSL Padres Go…	187	.266/.392/.429	6	4	36	—	.154/.263/.235
2026	19	ROKSD	93	.221/.355/.403	3	0	40	—	.146/.247/.256
2027PROJ0% MLB	20	MLBSD	203	.205/.277/.297	3	3	64	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBSD	58	.206/.279/.305	1	1	68	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBSD	146	.209/.283/.315	3	2	72	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

ISO78

wRC+40

BB%33

wOBA32

K%31

Chase%18

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsRodolfo Durán (age 20) · Jacob Amaya (age 19) · Eddys Leonard (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 82 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .274 / .295

PA82

HR1

K%28

BB%7

ISO93

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	128	102	22	3	0	0	19	28	6	1	1	216	370	245	615	29	297	22	15	302	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	187	154	41	7	0	6	23	30	9	4	0	266	392	429	821	162	294	16	12	372	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	ACL Padres	—	93	77	17	5	0	3	12	24	4	0	0	221	355	403	757	182	280	26	13	345	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	128	108	15	2	0	0	13	35	6	1	1	139	268	157	425	19	199	27	10	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	187	162	25	4	0	3	15	38	9	4	0	154	263	235	498	80	169	20	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	93	82	12	3	0	2	7	35	4	0	0	146	247	256	503	110	214	38	8	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	128	108	15	2	0	0	13	35	6	1	1	139	268	157	425	19	205	27	10	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	—	128	102	22	3	0	0	19	28	6	1	1	216	370	245	615	29	297	22	15	302	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	187	162	25	4	0	3	15	38	9	4	0	154	263	235	498	80	180	20	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	—	187	154	41	7	0	6	23	30	9	4	0	266	392	429	821	162	294	16	12	372	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	93	82	12	3	0	2	7	35	4	0	0	146	247	256	503	110	222	38	8	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	—	93	77	17	5	0	3	12	24	4	0	0	221	355	403	757	182	280	26	13	345	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	128	108	15	2	0	0	13	35	6	1	1	139	268	157	425	19	199	27	10	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	187	161	25	4	0	3	15	38	9	4	0	155	263	236	499	81	169	20	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	93	82	12	3	0	2	7	35	4	0	0	146	247	256	503	110	214	38	8	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	128	108	15	2	0	0	13	35	6	1	1	139	268	157	425	19	199	27	10	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	187	161	25	4	0	3	15	38	9	4	0	155	263	236	499	81	169	20	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	93	82	12	3	0	2	7	35	4	0	0	146	247	256	503	110	214	38	8	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	SD	0%	203	182	37	6	1	3	15	57	4	3	1	205	277	297	574	93	278	28	7	262	64	-9	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	SD	34%	170	153	33	6	1	3	12	47	3	3	1	209	282	310	591	101	280	28	7	269	68	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	SD	48%	302	272	58	10	2	5	22	83	5	5	2	213	286	319	605	107	282	27	7	275	72	-10	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	SD	54%	394	354	76	13	2	7	30	106	7	6	2	216	289	327	616	112	283	27	8	279	75	-12	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.4
2031	24	MLB MLE	SD	55%	456	410	89	16	2	9	35	122	8	7	3	218	291	333	625	115	284	27	8	283	77	-12	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.6
2032	25	MLB MLE	SD	56%	491	442	97	17	3	10	38	130	8	8	3	220	293	338	631	118	285	26	8	285	79	-12	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	SD	56%	512	460	101	18	3	10	39	135	8	8	3	219	293	337	630	118	284	26	8	285	79	-13	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.8
2034	27	MLB MLE	SD	55%	520	467	102	18	3	10	40	138	8	8	3	218	292	335	626	116	284	27	8	283	78	-14	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.7
2035	28	MLB MLE	SD	55%	520	467	102	18	3	10	40	139	8	7	3	216	289	330	619	113	283	27	8	280	76	-15	+0	-1	+9	+11	0.5
2036	29	MLB MLE	SD	53%	515	463	99	17	2	10	39	140	8	6	3	214	287	323	610	110	281	27	8	277	73	-16	+0	-1	+9	+11	0.3
2037	30	MLB MLE	SD	53%	507	456	96	17	2	9	38	139	8	6	4	211	283	316	598	105	279	27	7	272	70	-18	-0	-2	+9	+11	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	SD	34%	58	53	11	2	0	1	4	16	1	1	0	206	279	305	584	99	275	28	7	266	68	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	SD	48%	146	131	29	5	1	3	11	40	3	2	1	209	283	315	598	106	277	27	8	272	72	-5	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	SD	54%	214	192	41	7	1	4	16	58	4	3	1	212	286	323	609	111	278	27	7	276	75	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	SD	55%	253	228	48	8	1	5	19	68	4	4	1	215	288	329	617	114	279	27	8	280	77	-7	+0	+0	+5	+5	0.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	SD	56%	275	248	53	9	1	6	21	73	4	4	2	216	290	333	623	117	280	27	8	282	79	-7	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	SD	56%	288	259	55	9	1	6	22	76	5	4	2	216	290	333	623	117	279	26	8	282	79	-7	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	SD	55%	288	259	55	9	1	6	22	77	5	4	2	215	289	330	619	115	279	27	8	280	78	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	SD	55%	285	257	55	9	1	6	22	76	4	4	2	213	287	326	612	112	278	27	8	278	76	-8	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	SD	53%	275	248	52	9	1	5	21	75	4	3	2	211	284	319	603	108	276	27	8	274	73	-9	-0	-1	+5	+6	0.1
2037	30	MLB CTX	SD	53%	267	241	50	8	1	5	20	73	4	3	2	208	280	311	591	104	274	27	7	269	70	-9	-0	-1	+5	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2349	2116	449	75	9	47	178	632	38	32	15	212	285	323	608	111	278	27	8	277	72	-68	+0	-2	+42	+51	2.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	124	21	2	13	49	175	11	9	4	212	285	321	606	109	278	27	8	277	72	-19	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4877	4371	920	162	23	89	374	1310	91	70	28	210	286	319	606	109	277	27	8	274	72	-132	+2	-4	+80	+97	4.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	123	22	3	12	50	175	12	9	4	211	287	321	608	110	278	27	8	274	72	-19	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
/162	664	24	0	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#2Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#5Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.7	2,431	46	35	217	286	329	+43	+24	4.0	3.8
/162	664	13	10	+11.9	+6.6	1.1	pk7: 4
#6Gabby Street'04-'31 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,677 PA	2.5	1,677	2	17	210*	281*	325*	+30	+0	3.1	3.3
/162	664	1	7	+11.8	+0.0	1.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Isaac Ponce (OGILVIE)	20	45	40	45	45	203/274/295	92	278	1	1	28%	7%	64	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rodolfo Durán 2018 · A	20	43	41→50	46→45	39	212/254/309	97	284	9	6	28%	5%	57	-1.8	212/248/354	142	283	18	3	31%	4%	66	-1.1	229/272/378	149	281	17	3	25%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Jacob Amaya 2018 · A	19	44→47	39→45	48→45	46	211/280/295	84	285	6	8	27%	8%	65	-1.2	225/304/318	93	298	6	8	24%	10%	79	-0.2	218/291/330	112	279	11	6	25%	9%	75	-0.4
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→47	39→50	45→50	45	198/273/287	89	286	6	8	31%	8%	61	-1.5	229/297/377	148	305	16	5	29%	7%	91	+0.6	227/295/375	148	296	16	4	28%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Cutter Dykstra 2009 · A	20	44→54	42→40	41→55	45	215/280/315	100	287	9	7	28%	8%	70	-0.9	213/274/291	78	300	6	14	29%	7%	61	-1.5	239/306/325	86	316	6	16	24%	8%	79	-0.2
✕Pete Kozma 2008 · A	20	43→47	39→45	46→50	44	209/269/298	90	275	7	7	26%	7%	61	-1.5	214/273/301	87	282	6	7	25%	7%	63	-1.3	204/262/272	68	250	4	9	19%	6%	52	-1.2
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→40	47→65	40	207/259/281	75	292	5	11	30%	6%	53	-2.1	193/262/269	76	307	6	15	36%	7%	53	-2.1	189/270/268	79	286	5	32	33%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Tomás Nido 2015 · A	21	44→45	39→45	49→30	43	213/268/301	88	286	6	7	27%	6%	61	-1.5	234/265/337	103	307	9	2	26%	4%	68	-1.0	244/279/354	110	291	9	0	19%	4%	75	-0.3
✕Rayner Contreras 2008 · A	21	47	41→40	45→50	42	228/274/327	99	295	9	7	25%	6%	69	-0.9	230/288/312	82	303	5	11	24%	6%	72	-0.7	252/307/308	55	348	0	13	26%	6%	72	-0.2
✕Abrahan Gutierrez 2021 · A	21	45→41	39→45	46→40	43	217/266/297	81	277	7	6	24%	6%	59	-1.6	224/295/328	104	296	9	4	26%	8%	78	-0.3	216/291/318	102	282	9	2	25%	8%	72	-0.4
✕Yu Chang 2016 · A	20	41→47	42→50	45	38	205/254/311	106	279	10	6	30%	5%	59	-1.7	206/263/350	144	289	15	8	33%	6%	72	-0.7	217/278/367	150	284	17	4	29%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Imeldo Diaz 2019 · A	21	44	41→40	46→45	41	215/264/307	91	269	9	5	23%	5%	61	-1.5	231/265/311	80	306	5	5	25%	4%	61	-1.5	238/261/300	62	316	3	2	25%	2%	55	-0.6
✕Seth Conner 2012 · A	20	44	41→40	47→45	47	211/285/310	99	279	8	6	26%	8%	71	-0.8	203/275/278	75	282	5	4	27%	7%	59	-1.6	185/264/242	57	259	3	0	27%	7%	48	-0.7
✕Liover Peguero 2021 · A	20	45→49	38→45	50→55	41	212/263/292	80	293	5	9	28%	6%	57	-1.8	229/272/346	117	315	12	22	30%	5%	73	-0.6	229/273/352	123	303	13	24	28%	5%	72	-0.6
✕Adrián Sugastey 2023 · A	20	46	38→40	49→40	44	219/277/296	76	279	6	3	23%	6%	63	-1.3	222/263/311	89	272	7	4	20%	5%	61	-1.5	225/265/311	86	256	8	3	15%	4%	60	-0.7
✕Denzer Guzman 2024 · A	20	39→49	40→45	48→50	39	191/246/287	96	288	7	7	35%	7%	50	-2.3	209/268/322	113	303	11	10	33%	7%	67	-1.1	217/278/341	124	295	14	11	30%	7%	72	-0.6
✕Angel Tejada 2024 · A	20	45	40	44→60	37	215/267/311	96	295	7	8	29%	4%	63	-1.3	199/237/282	83	274	7	22	29%	4%	45	-2.7	180/209/248	68	244	6	35	28%	3%	24	-1.5
✕Jose Cordoba 2024 · A	21	43	40	47→55	41	208/265/304	96	287	7	9	29%	6%	61	-1.5	202/256/294	92	268	6	14	26%	5%	55	-1.9	190/244/281	91	247	7	18	25%	5%	45	-1.2
✕David Rodríguez 2016 · A	20	41→44	40	47→40	39	202/256/289	88	277	7	5	29%	5%	54	-2.0	209/264/290	81	284	6	3	27%	6%	57	-1.8	203/261/320	118	275	14	4	30%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Carlos Cauro 2024 · A	19	40	40	46→45	49	193/286/282	89	274	7	4	30%	10%	65	-1.2	204/280/311	107	300	11	5	33%	8%	70	-0.9	198/280/293	95	285	12	5	32%	8%	65	-0.4
✕Jose Herrera 2017 · A	20	44	40	43→40	45	215/277/303	88	278	8	4	25%	7%	65	-1.2	202/258/285	83	259	5	3	23%	7%	54	-2.0	214/297/304	90	284	9	3	26%	10%	72	-0.4

Isaac Ponce

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps