David Carrera

OF DSL NYY Bombers

Age 20 R/R 6'3" / 180 lbs ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2388ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	17	ROKDSL NYY Bombe…	122	.276/.408/.418	0	11	51	—	.175/.292/.252
2025	18	ROKDSL NYY Bombe…	167	.266/.427/.336	2	14	53	—	.175/.311/.212
2026	19	ROKDSL NYY Bombe…	225	.333/.507/.594	9	8	91	—	.193/.345/.326
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBNYY	335	.203/.291/.287	3	7	67	-0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBNYY	57	.209/.297/.307	1	1	73	-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBNYY	130	.213/.300/.320	2	3	77	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

wOBA98

wRC+96

Chase%96

ISO94

BB%91

K%66

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsRobert Gonzalez (age 20) · Jesus Hernandez (age 20) · Albertson Asigen (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 120 proj PA

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .289 / .285

PA120

HR1

K%27

BB%10

ISO84

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	98	27	10	2	0	15	32	7	11	2	276	408	418	827	143	397	26	12	371	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	128	34	3	0	2	34	37	2	14	6	266	427	336	763	70	348	22	20	356	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	225	165	55	12	2	9	52	41	6	8	5	333	507	594	1.101	261	393	18	23	476	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	103	18	6	1	0	10	39	7	11	2	175	292	252	544	78	253	32	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	137	24	2	0	1	25	45	2	14	6	175	311	212	523	36	232	27	15	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	225	181	35	7	1	5	36	50	6	8	5	193	345	326	671	133	233	22	16	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	103	18	6	1	0	10	39	7	11	2	175	292	252	544	78	273	32	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	98	27	10	2	0	15	32	7	11	2	276	408	418	827	143	397	26	12	371	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	137	24	2	0	1	25	45	2	14	6	175	311	212	523	36	245	27	15	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	128	34	3	0	2	34	37	2	14	6	266	427	336	763	70	348	22	20	356	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	225	181	35	7	1	5	36	50	6	8	5	193	345	326	671	133	234	22	16	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	225	165	55	12	2	9	52	41	6	8	5	333	507	594	1.101	261	393	18	23	476	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	104	18	6	1	0	10	39	7	11	2	173	292	250	542	77	253	32	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	138	24	2	0	1	25	45	2	14	6	174	311	210	521	36	232	27	15	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	225	181	35	7	1	5	36	50	6	8	5	193	345	326	671	133	233	22	16	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	104	18	6	1	0	10	39	7	11	2	173	292	250	542	77	253	32	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	138	24	2	0	1	25	45	2	14	6	174	311	210	521	36	232	27	15	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	225	181	35	7	1	5	36	50	6	8	5	193	345	326	671	133	233	22	16	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	335	296	60	11	2	3	32	89	4	7	2	203	291	287	578	84	275	27	10	267	67	-13	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	NYY	34%	166	147	31	6	1	2	16	43	2	4	1	208	296	303	599	95	277	26	10	275	73	-5	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
2029	22	MLB MLE	NYY	48%	268	236	50	9	2	4	26	69	4	6	2	212	300	316	616	104	279	26	10	282	77	-7	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.3
2030	23	MLB MLE	NYY	54%	358	315	67	12	2	6	35	92	5	9	2	216	302	326	628	110	281	26	10	286	80	-9	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	417	369	82	15	3	8	40	106	5	10	3	218	304	334	638	115	282	25	10	290	83	-9	+1	+0	-3	+9	-0.1
2032	25	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	450	398	88	16	3	9	43	113	6	11	3	220	306	339	645	119	283	25	10	293	84	-9	+1	+0	-3	+10	-0.0
2033	26	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	467	413	90	16	3	9	45	118	6	11	3	220	306	339	645	119	282	25	10	293	84	-9	+1	+0	-3	+10	-0.1
2034	27	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	473	419	92	17	3	9	45	120	6	11	3	219	305	336	641	118	282	25	10	291	83	-9	+1	+0	-3	+10	-0.1
2035	28	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	472	418	91	16	3	9	45	121	6	10	3	217	302	332	634	115	281	26	10	288	81	-11	+1	-1	-3	+10	-0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	NYY	34%	57	50	10	2	0	1	6	15	1	1	0	209	297	307	603	98	277	26	11	277	73	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	NYY	48%	130	114	24	4	1	2	13	34	2	3	1	213	300	320	620	107	279	26	10	283	77	-4	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	NYY	54%	194	170	37	7	1	3	19	50	3	5	1	216	303	330	634	114	281	26	10	288	80	-5	+1	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	231	204	44	8	1	4	22	59	3	6	1	219	305	338	644	119	282	26	10	292	83	-5	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.0
2032	25	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	252	223	50	9	2	5	24	63	3	6	2	221	307	344	651	123	283	25	10	295	84	-5	+0	+0	-2	+5	-0.0
2033	26	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	263	233	51	9	2	5	25	66	3	6	2	221	306	344	651	123	282	25	10	295	84	-5	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.0
2034	27	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	262	232	51	9	2	5	25	66	3	6	2	220	305	341	647	121	282	25	10	293	83	-5	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.1
2035	28	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	259	229	50	9	2	5	25	66	3	6	2	218	303	336	640	118	281	25	10	290	81	-6	+0	-0	-2	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1648	1455	317	57	11	30	159	419	21	39	11	218	304	334	638	116	283	25	10	291	79	-36	+3	-0	-10	+36	-0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	124	22	4	12	63	165	8	15	4	216	302	331	633	115	280	25	10	291	79	-14	+1	-0	-4	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3705	3241	690	126	23	63	378	948	57	108	34	213	306	324	630	111	278	26	10	286	79	-72	+7	-1	-19	+69	-1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	569	121	22	4	11	66	166	10	19	6	213	305	323	629	111	278	26	10	286	79	-15	+1	-0	-4	+14	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL NYY Bombers · 225 PAwOBA .469 → .303 (−166)K% 18.2% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.22%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	22.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	23.11%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.985	15.94%
HBP% /PA	2.67%	—	×0.700	—	×0.985	1.84%
Singles /BIP	25.81%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.956	×0.985	16.53%
Doubles /BIP	9.68%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.956	×0.985	5.47%
Triples /BIP	1.61%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.956	×0.985	0.91%
Home runs /BIP	7.26%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.985	3.36%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.

Result: wOBA .469 → .303; ISO .261 → .142; BABIP .393 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL NYY Bombers · 167 PAwOBA .355 → .247 (−108)K% 22.2% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.16%	÷0.997	×1.220	—	—	27.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.36%	÷0.966	×0.700	—	×0.995	14.67%
HBP% /PA	1.20%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	0.83%
Singles /BIP	31.87%	÷0.985	×0.680	×0.998	×0.995	21.83%
Doubles /BIP	3.30%	÷1.019	×0.600	×0.998	×0.995	1.93%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.961	×0.600	×0.998	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.20%	÷1.090	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.94%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .355 → .247; ISO .070 → .036; BABIP .348 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL NYY Bombers · 122 PAwOBA .368 → .244 (−124)K% 26.2% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.23%	÷1.003	×1.220	—	—	31.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.30%	÷1.005	×0.700	—	×1.008	8.63%
HBP% /PA	5.74%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	4.05%
Singles /BIP	22.73%	÷1.008	×0.680	×1.006	×1.008	15.55%
Doubles /BIP	15.15%	÷1.038	×0.600	×1.006	×1.008	8.88%
Triples /BIP	3.03%	÷1.150	×0.600	×1.006	×1.008	1.60%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.658	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 232, 1B 102, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .368 → .244; ISO .143 → .083; BABIP .397 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Carl Warwick'61-'66 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	31	13	245*	309*	381*	-9	-1	1.4	1.4
/162	664	13	5	-3.6	-0.6	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.7	1,767	31	42	218	300	331	-11	+0	0.3	0.4
/162	664	12	16	-4.0	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
David Carrera (OGILVIE)	20	40	20	60	60	201/289/285	84	275	1	3	27%	10%	67	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Robert Gonzalez 2021 · A	20	40	39→40	54→60	52	186/296/275	89	275	5	8	30%	12%	68	-1.0	190/293/264	74	252	5	17	24%	10%	64	-1.3	151/292/187	36	182	3	30	16%	14%	48	-0.8
✕Jesus Hernandez 2024 · A	20	42	37→40	51→55	53	199/281/271	72	257	5	13	23%	10%	60	-1.6	199/278/287	88	284	6	18	29%	9%	63	-1.4	199/280/289	90	282	6	24	29%	9%	62	-0.7
✕Albertson Asigen 2023 · A	21	43	35→40	56→55	50	201/277/262	60	263	2	12	23%	9%	56	-1.9	215/296/295	80	325	5	20	32%	9%	71	-0.8	209/299/294	85	336	7	27	36%	9%	69	-0.3
✕Ryan Vega 2017 · A	20	44	40	54→45	41	212/260/305	93	270	8	9	24%	5%	59	-1.6	212/271/300	88	287	7	7	27%	6%	63	-1.4	190/257/269	79	268	7	6	30%	7%	50	-1.3
✕Adanson Cruz 2021 · A	20	45	37→40	52→50	45	211/283/292	81	298	4	9	28%	8%	65	-1.2	178/244/250	72	372	5	6	49%	7%	41	-3.0	148/219/207	58	306	4	6	49%	7%	21	-1.3
✕Jenner Emeterio 2013 · A	20	42	37→30	48→60	49	198/268/270	72	254	4	13	22%	8%	55	-2.0	197/293/251	54	252	2	24	20%	11%	61	-1.5	183/298/219	36	231	1	34	18%	13%	54	-0.8
✕Frank Frias 2014 · A	20	44	37→30	52→55	48	205/293/280	76	289	5	20	28%	9%	68	-1.0	219/288/306	87	317	6	13	30%	8%	70	-0.8	227/294/318	91	329	7	13	31%	8%	71	-0.2
✕Anthony Alford 2014 · A	20	44→52	40→45	55	45	209/282/305	97	298	6	12	30%	8%	68	-1.0	213/286/308	95	348	7	16	37%	9%	70	-0.8	220/302/313	92	336	7	21	33%	9%	75	-0.3
✕Glenn Santiago 2021 · A	20	41	36→40	54→45	48	191/268/264	73	243	2	13	21%	8%	54	-2.0	204/266/293	89	275	7	9	27%	7%	59	-1.6	185/249/263	77	271	7	8	32%	7%	44	-1.1
✕Cesar Gonzalez 2015 · A	20	42	36→40	54→60	43	195/260/262	67	275	2	19	28%	7%	49	-2.4	203/255/272	69	317	3	11	34%	6%	50	-2.3	184/229/215	32	332	0	4	42%	5%	23	-1.0
✕Gilberto Celestino 2019 · A	20	43→53	38→45	52→55	42	209/257/289	80	280	6	12	27%	6%	54	-2.0	226/281/328	102	291	8	8	24%	7%	72	-0.7	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Guillermo Pimentel 2010 · A	20	40	37→30	49→55	45	189/274/253	64	275	5	17	31%	8%	55	-2.0	200/259/279	79	339	6	8	40%	6%	53	-2.1	178/227/247	69	320	8	2	44%	5%	31	-1.0
✕Jorge Alcantara 2012 · A	20	44	40→45	52→50	42	209/274/307	98	306	7	12	32%	8%	65	-1.2	190/261/285	95	288	7	14	34%	8%	55	-1.9	143/221/238	95	216	5	25	34%	8%	30	-1.0
✕Ricardo Rosario 2023 · A	20	39	36→40	50→55	44	186/249/258	71	249	3	12	26%	7%	45	-2.7	204/271/288	84	283	7	19	28%	7%	60	-1.6	202/282/289	86	263	10	29	26%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Che-Hsuan Lin 2009 · A	20	44→54	41→40	58→55	45	214/276/316	101	271	7	21	23%	6%	68	-1.0	239/308/317	78	289	5	20	18%	8%	80	-0.2	245/318/310	65	292	4	22	16%	8%	79	-0.2
✕Pablo Olivares 2018 · A	20	44	36→40	49→50	43	207/279/278	72	283	3	10	26%	6%	61	-1.5	227/298/305	78	294	6	13	23%	6%	74	-0.5	220/297/294	73	283	5	14	22%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Jake Fox 2023 · A	20	46→44	39→40	55→50	52	216/312/311	95	298	6	15	27%	11%	81	-0.1	202/278/301	99	278	7	11	27%	9%	65	-1.2	203/291/297	94	273	5	13	25%	11%	68	-0.5
✕Tito Polo 2015 · A	20	43→53	39→45	54→60	42	206/268/296	90	278	5	17	27%	6%	61	-1.5	222/276/320	98	295	8	26	26%	5%	69	-0.9	235/290/350	114	311	11	32	27%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Candido Pimentel 2010 · A	20	45	35→30	53→55	54	207/295/272	65	273	2	17	23%	11%	65	-1.2	211/275/265	54	294	2	15	26%	8%	55	-1.9	234/284/275	41	327	1	17	27%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Druw Jones 2024 · A	20	45→55	39→40	51→55	45	208/281/293	85	320	7	13	35%	9%	65	-1.2	223/301/314	91	356	6	18	35%	10%	77	-0.3	226/303/314	88	356	5	23	35%	9%	76	-0.4

David Carrera

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps