David Carrera — OGILVIE

David CarreraOF DSL NYY Bombers

Age 19 R/R 6'3" / 180 lbs ROK HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION132 act + 88 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .318 / .325

PA88

HR1

K%26

BB%10

BABIP302

ISO104

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.9M
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2037	Arb-3	$1M	+0.3	$0.5M	+$0.1M
Totals		$7M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	104	18	6	1	0	9	46	7	11	2	173	283	250	533	77	300	38	7	247	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	98	27	10	2	0	15	32	7	11	2	276	408	418	827	143	397	26	12	371	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	139	27	2	0	1	23	54	2	14	6	194	317	230	547	36	299	32	14	262	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	128	34	3	0	2	34	37	2	14	6	266	427	336	763	70	348	22	20	356	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	NYY	—	132	110	24	4	1	2	15	33	5	4	4	218	338	327	666	109	286	25	11	307	93	-1	-1	+0	-1	+4	0.1
YTD	19	ROK	NYY	—	132	100	31	6	1	3	25	23	5	4	4	310	469	480	949	170	368	17	19	422	181	+12	-1	+0	-1	+4	1.5
ROS	19	ROK	NYY	0%	88	77	17	3	1	1	9	23	2	2	1	221	318	325	643	104	280	26	10	275	68	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
ROS	19	MLB	NYY	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		281	—	—	262	58	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	NYY	—	132	111	24	4	1	2	15	33	5	4	4	216	338	324	663	108	282	25	11	307	93	-1	-1	+0	-1	+4	0.1
TOT	19	ROK	NYY	—	220	187	41	7	2	3	24	56	7	6	5	219	330	326	656	107	292	25	11	294	83	-4	-1	+0	-1	+6	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	NYY	34%	256	224	48	9	1	4	25	66	5	6	2	214	307	317	624	103	284	26	10	286	77	-7	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.0
2028	21	MLB	NYY	48%	375	328	72	13	2	6	37	94	7	9	3	220	312	326	638	107	286	25	10	294	83	-7	+1	+0	-2	+11	0.2
2029	22	MLB	NYY	54%	460	404	90	16	3	9	45	114	8	11	4	223	313	344	657	121	287	25	10	299	87	-7	+1	+0	-3	+13	0.4
2030	23	MLB	NYY	57%	515	450	101	18	3	10	51	127	9	12	5	224	316	344	660	120	288	25	10	302	89	-6	+0	+0	-3	+15	0.6
2031	24	MLB	NYY	57%	551	481	109	20	3	11	55	135	10	13	5	227	319	349	668	123	289	25	10	303	90	-6	+1	+0	-3	+16	0.7
2032	25	MLB	NYY	60%	571	499	114	21	3	12	57	140	10	14	6	228	320	355	674	126	289	25	10	304	91	-6	+0	+0	-3	+16	0.7
2033	26	MLB	NYY	62%	582	509	115	21	3	12	58	142	10	14	6	226	317	350	667	124	289	24	10	304	91	-6	+0	+0	-3	+16	0.8
2034	27	MLB	NYY	63%	584	510	115	21	3	12	59	143	10	14	6	225	318	349	667	124	288	24	10	304	91	-6	+0	+0	-4	+17	0.8
2035	28	MLB	NYY	65%	580	506	115	21	3	12	59	143	10	14	5	227	320	352	672	125	288	25	10	303	90	-6	+1	-1	-3	+16	0.7
2036	29	MLB	NYY	65%	571	497	111	20	3	11	59	142	10	13	5	223	318	342	660	119	287	25	10	301	89	-7	+1	-1	-3	+16	0.5
2037	30	MLB	NYY	65%	561	488	108	19	3	11	58	141	10	13	5	221	317	340	657	119	286	25	10	299	87	-8	+1	-2	-3	+16	0.3
2038	31	MLB	NYY	65%	547	476	105	19	3	10	56	139	10	12	5	221	315	336	652	116	283	25	10	294	84	-10	+0	-3	-3	+15	-0.0
2027	20	MLB	NYY	34%	88	77	17	3	1	1	9	23	2	2	1	221	318	325	643	104	285	26	10	275	69	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
2028	21	MLB	NYY	48%	182	159	35	6	1	3	18	46	3	4	2	220	311	327	638	107	287	25	10	283	75	-5	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.1
2029	22	MLB	NYY	54%	249	218	49	9	1	5	25	62	4	6	2	225	316	344	660	119	289	25	10	288	78	-6	+0	+0	-1	+7	-0.0
2030	23	MLB	NYY	57%	292	256	59	11	2	6	29	72	5	7	3	230	321	359	680	129	290	25	10	291	81	-6	+0	+0	-2	+8	0.0
2031	24	MLB	NYY	57%	312	272	62	11	2	6	31	77	6	8	3	228	320	349	670	121	290	25	10	293	82	-6	+0	+0	-2	+9	0.1
2032	25	MLB	NYY	60%	345	302	69	13	2	7	34	84	6	8	3	228	319	354	673	126	290	24	10	293	83	-7	+0	+0	-2	+10	0.1
2033	26	MLB	NYY	62%	363	318	73	13	2	8	36	89	6	9	4	230	319	358	678	129	290	25	10	294	83	-7	+0	+0	-2	+10	0.1
2034	27	MLB	NYY	63%	370	323	74	14	2	8	37	91	7	9	4	229	322	359	681	130	290	25	10	294	83	-7	+0	+0	-2	+10	0.1
2035	28	MLB	NYY	65%	377	329	75	14	2	8	38	93	7	9	4	228	321	356	676	128	289	25	10	293	82	-8	+0	-0	-2	+11	0.1
2036	29	MLB	NYY	65%	371	323	73	13	2	8	38	92	7	9	3	226	321	353	674	127	288	25	10	291	81	-8	+1	-1	-2	+11	-0.0
2037	30	MLB	NYY	65%	365	319	71	13	2	7	37	92	6	8	3	223	315	342	657	119	287	25	10	288	79	-9	+0	-1	-2	+10	-0.2
2038	31	MLB	NYY	65%	356	310	68	12	2	7	37	91	6	8	3	219	314	339	653	119	285	26	10	284	75	-10	+0	-2	-2	+10	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3670	3207	725	132	21	74	369	912	65	87	35	226	318	350	668	123	291	25	10	290	80	-82	+3	-5	-22	+104	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	568	128	23	4	13	65	162	12	15	6	225	318	349	666	123	290	25	10	290	80	-15	+1	-1	-4	+18	-0.0
Career	—			—	6530	5692	1265	229	35	122	660	1649	120	172	66	222	316	339	655	117	289	25	10	298	86	-101	+8	-7	-39	+185	4.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	567	125	23	3	12	66	164	12	17	7	220	315	335	650	115	286	25	10	298	86	-10	+1	-1	-4	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	98	27	10	2	0	15	32	7	11	2	276	408	418	827	143	397	26	12	371	142	+6	+1	—	—	+3	1.1
2025	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	128	34	3	0	2	34	37	2	14	6	266	427	336	763	70	348	22	20	356	131	+6	+0	—	—	+5	1.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	10	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
	/162	664	9	26	241	331	351	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Desi Relafordlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,443 PA	6	2,443	34	64	246	329	356	-1	-7	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	9	17	246	329	356	-0.3	-1.8	1.4	pk7: 5
#3Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	7	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
#4Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	/162	664	11	16	238	326	354	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,828	73	90	224	313	343	-23	+0	3.2	3.1
	/162	664	13	16	224	313	343	-4.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 3
#6Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
David Carrera (OGILVIE)	19	40	20	60	60	219/330/326	107	292	3	6	25%	11%	83	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Astudillo 2023 · A	19	44	37→30	54→50	47	207/264/281	74	251	3	14	19%	6%	50	-1.8	245/295/318	73	283	3	14	14%	5%	72	-0.2	293/336/390	97	320	8	19	10%	4%	104	+0.6
✕Robedluis Fuentes 2008 · A	19	41	37→30	53→45	45	197/263/267	70	262	4	12	25%	7%	46	-2.0	230/290/284	54	281	3	7	18%	6%	61	-1.0	243/302/283	40	290	2	5	16%	6%	64	-0.3
✕Randy Romero 2019 · A	19	43	36→40	50→60	45	203/252/272	69	247	3	12	19%	6%	42	-2.3	229/271/302	73	269	3	22	15%	5%	56	-1.3	223/260/283	60	275	2	30	19%	4%	47	-0.6
✕Dubal Baez 2012 · A	19	46	34→30	52→60	47	210/307/262	52	296	2	16	27%	8%	65	-0.7	218/295/268	50	299	1	19	25%	7%	60	-1.0	222/294/257	35	301	0	26	24%	7%	53	-0.4
✕Richard Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	39	36→30	48→50	45	186/255/247	61	260	3	12	28%	8%	37	-2.6	210/266/251	41	261	1	14	19%	7%	42	-2.3	233/291/254	20	278	0	16	15%	7%	50	-0.6
✕Ricardo Rosario 2022 · A	19	40	37→40	53→55	42	193/254/272	79	260	4	13	26%	6%	43	-2.2	199/267/282	83	276	6	17	28%	7%	52	-1.6	193/273/276	82	259	9	24	27%	8%	51	-0.6
✕Albert Hernandez 2008 · A	19	43	39→40	49→45	46	207/270/299	92	260	6	7	22%	7%	57	-1.2	226/286/317	91	285	6	7	22%	6%	68	-0.5	230/289/314	84	291	6	6	22%	6%	66	-0.2
✕Jenner Emeterio 2013 · A	20	45	38→30	48→60	46	214/278/297	83	284	5	13	26%	8%	59	-1.1	217/304/278	61	289	3	24	23%	10%	66	-0.6	216/317/260	44	285	1	34	22%	12%	65	-0.3
✕Jesus Castillo 2022 · A	19	41→44	34→30	51→55	42	194/257/244	49	275	2	16	28%	6%	37	-2.6	213/312/258	45	291	1	19	24%	11%	66	-0.6	202/327/232	30	283	1	24	24%	14%	65	-0.3
✕Demetrio Nadal 2023 · A	19	42	35→30	55	47	198/281/261	63	260	3	17	23%	7%	53	-1.5	210/300/287	77	273	4	25	23%	8%	68	-0.5	195/295/268	73	258	5	32	24%	9%	60	-0.4
✕Edwin Gomez 2007 · A	19	42	35→45	52→50	42	197/253/253	57	281	2	16	29%	7%	37	-2.6	219/296/310	91	297	7	13	26%	9%	71	-0.3	224/321/329	105	291	9	17	24%	11%	85	+0.2
✕Guillermo Pimentel 2009 · A	19	44	39→40	48→55	47	209/298/288	79	282	7	17	26%	8%	68	-0.5	199/266/274	75	327	6	12	38%	7%	49	-1.8	173/232/231	58	316	6	11	44%	7%	20	-1.1
✕Deiber Olivera 2012 · A	19	44	38→40	50→45	44	210/259/296	86	269	4	8	23%	6%	50	-1.7	236/277/312	76	275	3	7	15%	4%	63	-0.9	255/291/322	67	289	2	7	12%	3%	69	-0.1
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→46	41→45	56→55	43	214/285/313	99	288	7	14	27%	7%	68	-0.5	203/314/320	117	299	9	23	31%	12%	83	+0.6	201/310/335	134	289	10	26	30%	12%	81	+0.3
●Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→50	55→60	47	200/269/291	91	259	7	13	25%	8%	55	-1.4	199/251/270	71	293	3	25	31%	6%	40	-2.4	248/301/422	175	338	22	29	32%	6%	100	+0.7
✕Eury Pérez 2009 · A	19	47→57	37→40	54→65	47	223/297/296	73	290	5	20	23%	8%	68	-0.5	259/303/332	73	320	4	28	19%	5%	78	+0.2	296/331/390	95	359	3	37	18%	4%	102	+0.6
✕Edwin Ventura 2017 · A	19	48	37→30	54→55	41	225/280/299	74	293	4	12	24%	5%	61	-1.0	192/240/242	50	258	2	14	25%	5%	28	-3.2	167/212/188	21	225	0	20	24%	4%	1	-1.5
✕Daniel Padilla 2016 · A	19	48	36→30	52→55	42	224/274/285	61	300	4	14	26%	6%	54	-1.4	217/288/282	65	293	3	16	24%	8%	59	-1.1	218/302/265	47	288	0	27	22%	10%	61	-0.3
✕Robert Vasquez 2006 · A	19	49	40	52→50	47	232/289/326	94	289	6	12	22%	7%	72	-0.2	206/273/275	69	276	4	8	25%	8%	52	-1.6	196/269/254	58	272	5	9	27%	8%	44	-0.6
✕Rafael Herrera 2019 · A	18	43	35→40	52→50	45	200/267/266	67	269	2	12	25%	7%	47	-1.9	218/286/298	80	291	4	12	24%	8%	63	-0.8	229/304/310	81	297	4	17	22%	9%	71	-0.1