David Carrera — OGILVIE

David CarreraOF DSL NYY Bombers

Age 19 R/R 6'3" / 180 lbs ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION225 act + 22 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†89

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .318 / .263

PA22

HR0

K%27

BB%14

BABIP286

ISO53

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$34M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.3M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$5M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	98	27	10	2	0	15	32	7	11	2	276	408	418	827	143	397	26	12	371	137	+5	+1	—	—	+3	1.0
2025	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	128	34	3	0	2	34	37	2	14	6	266	427	336	763	70	348	22	20	356	127	+5	+0	—	—	+4	1.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	104	19	7	1	0	9	46	7	11	2	183	292	269	561	87	301	38	7	251	56	-6	+1	—	—	+3	-0.2
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	140	27	2	0	1	22	53	2	14	6	193	311	229	540	36	283	32	13	260	62	-8	+0	—	—	+4	-0.4
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	104	19	7	1	0	9	46	7	11	2	183	292	269	561	87	317	38	7	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	98	27	10	2	0	15	32	7	11	2	276	408	418	827	143	397	26	12	371	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	140	27	2	0	1	22	53	2	14	6	193	311	229	540	36	292	32	13	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	128	34	3	0	2	34	37	2	14	6	266	427	336	763	70	348	22	20	356	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	105	19	7	1	0	9	46	7	11	2	181	292	267	558	86	301	38	7	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	141	27	2	0	1	22	53	2	14	6	191	311	227	538	35	283	32	13	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	105	19	7	1	0	9	46	7	11	2	181	292	267	558	86	301	38	7	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	141	27	2	0	1	22	53	2	14	6	191	311	227	538	35	283	32	13	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	NYY	—	225	185	43	9	1	7	32	59	6	8	5	232	363	405	769	173	298	26	14	341	117	+5	-0	+0	-1	+5	0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK RAW	NYY	—	225	165	55	12	2	9	52	41	6	8	5	333	507	594	1.101	261	393	18	23	476	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	ROK MLE	NYY	0%	22	19	4	1	0	0	3	6	0	1	0	211	318	263	581	53	285	27	14	299	89	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
TOT	19	ROK MLE	NYY	—	247	204	47	10	1	7	35	65	6	9	5	230	359	392	751	162	299	26	14	337	114	+4	-0	+0	-1	+5	0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	NYY	34%	270	233	52	10	2	5	31	68	4	6	2	223	325	348	672	124	286	25	11	307	94	-2	+0	+0	-2	+6	0.3
2028	21	MLB MLE	NYY	48%	386	334	75	15	2	8	43	95	6	9	3	225	324	353	677	129	288	25	11	312	97	-1	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.5
2029	22	MLB MLE	NYY	54%	468	405	93	18	3	11	52	114	8	11	4	230	329	370	699	141	289	24	11	315	100	-0	+1	+0	-3	+10	0.8
2030	23	MLB MLE	NYY	57%	520	449	104	20	3	13	58	125	8	12	5	232	330	376	706	145	290	24	11	318	101	+1	+0	+0	-3	+11	0.9
2031	24	MLB MLE	NYY	60%	554	478	111	21	3	14	62	133	9	13	5	232	332	377	708	144	290	24	11	320	102	+2	+1	+0	-3	+12	1.1
2032	25	MLB MLE	NYY	62%	574	496	115	22	3	14	64	137	9	14	5	232	330	373	703	141	290	24	11	320	103	+2	+1	+0	-3	+12	1.2
2033	26	MLB MLE	NYY	64%	583	502	117	22	3	15	66	139	10	14	6	233	334	378	712	145	290	24	11	321	103	+2	+0	+0	-3	+13	1.2
2034	27	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	585	503	117	22	3	15	67	140	10	14	6	233	334	378	712	145	290	24	11	321	103	+2	+0	+0	-4	+13	1.2
2035	28	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	581	499	115	22	3	14	67	140	10	14	5	230	333	371	704	140	289	24	12	320	103	+2	+1	-1	-3	+13	1.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	571	491	113	22	3	14	66	139	9	13	5	230	332	373	705	143	289	24	12	318	101	+1	+1	-1	-3	+12	0.9
2037	30	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	561	482	110	21	3	13	65	138	9	12	5	228	331	365	696	137	287	25	12	315	99	-0	+0	-2	-3	+12	0.7
2038	31	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	547	470	105	20	3	12	63	136	9	12	5	223	327	355	682	132	285	25	12	311	97	-2	+0	-3	-3	+12	0.4
2039	32	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	529	455	101	19	3	12	61	134	8	11	4	222	324	356	680	134	281	25	12	305	93	-5	+1	-4	-3	+11	0.1
2040	33	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	499	431	92	17	2	10	57	129	8	10	4	213	317	332	648	118	277	26	11	299	88	-7	+0	-4	-3	+11	-0.3
2027	20	MLB CTX	NYY	34%	93	80	19	4	1	2	11	23	2	2	1	237	344	388	732	150	288	25	12	298	94	-1	+0	+0	-1	+2	0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	NYY	48%	187	161	36	7	1	4	21	46	3	4	2	224	324	354	678	130	290	25	11	304	97	-1	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	NYY	54%	254	220	50	10	1	6	28	62	4	6	2	227	325	364	689	136	291	24	11	307	100	-0	+0	+0	-2	+6	0.4
2030	23	MLB CTX	NYY	57%	294	254	61	12	2	8	33	71	5	7	3	240	339	398	737	157	292	24	11	310	101	+0	+0	+0	-2	+6	0.5
2031	24	MLB CTX	NYY	60%	335	289	68	13	2	9	38	80	5	8	3	235	334	388	722	152	292	24	11	312	102	+1	+0	+0	-2	+7	0.7
2032	25	MLB CTX	NYY	62%	359	310	72	14	2	9	40	86	6	9	3	232	331	377	709	145	292	24	11	313	103	+1	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.8
2033	26	MLB CTX	NYY	64%	371	320	76	15	2	10	42	89	6	9	4	237	337	391	728	153	292	24	11	313	103	+1	+0	+0	-2	+8	0.8
2034	27	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	380	328	77	15	2	10	43	91	6	9	4	235	334	384	718	149	292	24	11	313	103	+1	+0	+0	-2	+8	0.8
2035	28	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	378	326	76	15	2	10	43	91	6	9	3	233	333	383	717	150	291	24	11	312	103	+1	+1	-0	-2	+8	0.7
2036	29	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	371	319	74	14	2	10	43	90	6	9	3	232	334	382	717	150	290	24	12	310	101	+1	+1	-1	-2	+8	0.6
2037	30	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	365	314	72	14	2	9	42	90	6	8	3	229	331	373	704	143	289	25	12	307	99	-0	+0	-1	-2	+8	0.5
2038	31	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	356	306	70	13	2	9	41	89	6	8	3	229	331	373	704	144	287	25	12	303	97	-1	+0	-2	-2	+8	0.3
2039	32	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	344	296	66	12	2	8	40	87	5	7	3	223	326	358	684	135	283	25	12	298	93	-3	+0	-2	-2	+7	0.0
2040	33	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	324	279	61	11	2	7	37	84	5	6	2	219	321	348	669	129	279	26	11	291	88	-5	+0	-3	-2	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4411	3802	878	169	25	111	502	1079	71	101	39	231	332	376	708	145	291	24	11	307	98	-4	+5	-10	-26	+96	6.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	560	129	25	4	16	74	159	10	15	6	230	330	375	705	145	291	24	11	307	98	-1	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	7539	6491	1470	281	40	171	856	1872	126	191	72	226	328	361	689	135	289	25	11	313	98	-7	+8	-15	-44	+157	10.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	560	126	24	3	15	74	161	11	16	6	225	328	359	687	134	286	25	11	313	98	-1	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	5.3	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
/162	664	13	8	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
#2Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.9	4,577	106	105	228	325	365	-27	+0	9.2	7.9
/162	664	15	15	-4.0	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#4Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
David Carrera (OGILVIE)	19	40	20	60	60	214/319/329	115	285	3	4	26%	12%	89	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Astudillo 2023 · A	19	44	37→45	54→55	47	208/265/283	75	252	3	14	19%	6%	56	-1.9	245/295/319	74	283	3	14	14%	5%	75	-0.5	286/329/371	85	315	6	22	11%	5%	96	+0.4
✕Robedluis Fuentes 2008 · A	19	41	37→30	53→45	45	197/263/267	70	262	4	12	25%	7%	53	-2.1	230/290/284	54	281	3	7	18%	6%	65	-1.2	243/302/283	40	290	2	5	16%	6%	68	-0.4
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→44	41→45	56→55	44	216/286/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	206/315/327	121	297	9	23	30%	12%	86	+0.3	203/309/335	132	285	10	26	29%	12%	83	+0.1
✕Jose Paez 2013 · A	19	49	40→45	51→50	43	233/286/331	98	308	6	13	25%	6%	74	-0.5	210/256/293	83	314	4	11	32%	5%	55	-2.0	178/220/246	68	283	3	12	36%	4%	26	-1.1
✕Luke Adams 2023 · A	19	50→36	41→50	55	45	231/306/331	100	330	7	18	30%	8%	83	+0.1	193/323/316	123	270	12	20	30%	11%	89	+0.5	189/341/340	151	235	17	19	25%	12%	100	+0.7
✕Dubal Baez 2012 · A	19	46	34→30	52→60	47	210/307/262	52	296	2	16	27%	8%	69	-0.9	218/295/268	50	299	1	19	25%	7%	65	-1.2	222/294/257	35	301	0	26	24%	7%	58	-0.5
✕Albert Hernandez 2008 · A	19	43	39→40	49→45	46	207/270/299	92	260	6	7	22%	7%	62	-1.4	226/286/317	91	285	6	7	22%	6%	72	-0.7	230/289/314	84	291	6	6	22%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Robert Vasquez 2006 · A	19	49	40	52→50	47	232/289/326	94	289	6	12	22%	7%	75	-0.5	206/273/275	69	276	4	8	25%	8%	57	-1.8	197/271/252	55	275	4	9	27%	8%	51	-0.6
✕Guillermo Pimentel 2009 · A	19	44	39→40	48→55	47	209/298/288	79	282	7	17	26%	8%	72	-0.7	199/266/274	75	324	6	12	37%	7%	55	-1.9	172/232/231	59	310	6	11	43%	7%	30	-1.1
✕Jenner Emeterio 2013 · A	20	45	38→30	48→60	46	214/278/297	83	284	5	13	26%	8%	64	-1.3	217/304/278	61	289	3	24	23%	10%	70	-0.8	216/317/260	44	285	1	34	22%	12%	69	-0.4
✕L.J. Hoes 2009 · A	19	50→60	37→40	56→50	52	233/301/304	71	285	4	11	19%	9%	74	-0.6	238/285/305	67	306	4	12	22%	6%	68	-1.0	274/333/360	86	328	5	15	17%	7%	95	+0.9
●Jahmai Jones 2017 · A	19	47→50	39→50	52→50	43	223/275/306	83	283	6	17	23%	5%	65	-1.2	219/277/324	105	286	9	15	25%	7%	70	-0.8	248/345/422	173	324	16	18	26%	11%	114	+1.3
✕Efrain Contreras 2006 · A	19	43	37→45	49→55	41	202/261/275	74	285	4	9	29%	6%	53	-2.1	224/289/333	109	269	10	13	20%	5%	77	-0.3	225/291/340	115	260	12	15	18%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Victor Rodrigues 2023 · A	18	41	38→30	49→50	43	196/259/277	81	254	5	7	24%	6%	53	-2.1	212/289/284	72	268	5	9	21%	9%	66	-1.1	221/317/274	53	274	5	10	19%	11%	72	-0.3
✕Leo Rivas 2017 · A	19	45→54	36→40	54→65	48	210/293/282	73	289	3	21	26%	8%	68	-1.0	200/289/277	77	290	4	13	29%	10%	65	-1.2	241/356/333	92	321	9	44	24%	14%	102	+1.0
✕Deiber Olivera 2012 · A	19	44	38→40	50→45	44	210/259/296	86	269	4	8	23%	6%	56	-1.9	236/277/312	76	275	3	7	15%	4%	67	-1.1	255/291/322	67	289	2	7	12%	3%	73	-0.2
✕Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→55	55→60	47	200/269/291	91	259	7	13	25%	8%	60	-1.6	202/254/274	72	296	2	25	30%	6%	49	-2.4	242/294/410	167	331	20	27	32%	6%	94	+0.4
✕Ronarsy Ledesma 2012 · A	19	41	42→45	47→50	43	203/277/306	103	268	9	7	27%	6%	67	-1.1	224/283/326	102	290	5	11	24%	5%	73	-0.6	226/280/337	111	291	6	11	23%	4%	73	-0.3
✕Eury Pérez 2009 · A	19	47→57	37→40	54→65	47	223/297/296	73	290	5	20	23%	8%	72	-0.7	258/302/330	72	319	4	28	19%	5%	80	-0.2	292/329/379	87	355	3	37	18%	4%	98	+0.4
✕Edwin Ventura 2017 · A	19	48	37→30	54→55	41	225/280/299	74	293	4	12	24%	5%	65	-1.2	192/240/242	50	258	2	14	25%	5%	36	-3.3	167/212/188	21	225	0	20	24%	4%	12	-1.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps