Joaquin Arias Jr.
OF ACL Rangers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROKDSL Rangers B… | 137 | .257/.368/.310 | 0 | 8 | 38 | — | .186/.278/.229 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROKDSL Rangers R… | 147 | .314/.426/.415 | 0 | 4 | 57 | — | .208/.298/.264 |
| 2026 | 19 | ROKTEX | 120 | .260/.342/.317 | 0 | 3 | 28 | — | .193/.248/.239 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 20 | MLBTEX | 230 | .199/.266/.270 | 2 | 4 | 53 | -0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 21 | MLBTEX | 40 | .204/.272/.288 | 0 | 1 | 59 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 33
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rangers Blue | — | 137 | 113 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 257 | 368 | 310 | 678 | 53 | 312 | 17 | 14 | 310 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rangers Red | — | 147 | 118 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 314 | 426 | 415 | 841 | 102 | 385 | 16 | 14 | 368 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 120 | 104 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 35 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 260 | 342 | 317 | 659 | 58 | 380 | 29 | 11 | 298 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers Blue | — | 137 | 118 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 186 | 278 | 229 | 507 | 42 | 216 | 20 | 10 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers Red | — | 147 | 125 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 208 | 298 | 264 | 562 | 56 | 251 | 20 | 10 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 120 | 109 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 50 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 248 | 239 | 486 | 46 | 317 | 42 | 7 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers Blue | — | 137 | 118 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 186 | 278 | 229 | 507 | 42 | 237 | 20 | 10 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Rangers Blue | — | 137 | 113 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 257 | 368 | 310 | 678 | 53 | 312 | 17 | 14 | 310 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers Red | — | 147 | 125 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 208 | 298 | 264 | 562 | 56 | 265 | 20 | 10 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Rangers Red | — | 147 | 118 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 314 | 426 | 415 | 841 | 102 | 385 | 16 | 14 | 368 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 120 | 109 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 50 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 248 | 239 | 486 | 46 | 344 | 42 | 7 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Rangers | — | 120 | 104 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 35 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 260 | 342 | 317 | 659 | 58 | 380 | 29 | 11 | 298 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers Blue | — | 137 | 121 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 182 | 278 | 223 | 501 | 41 | 216 | 20 | 10 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers Red | — | 147 | 130 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 200 | 298 | 254 | 552 | 54 | 251 | 20 | 10 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 120 | 111 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 50 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 189 | 248 | 234 | 482 | 45 | 317 | 42 | 7 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers Blue | — | 137 | 121 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 182 | 278 | 223 | 501 | 41 | 216 | 20 | 10 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers Red | — | 147 | 130 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 200 | 298 | 254 | 552 | 54 | 251 | 20 | 10 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 120 | 111 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 50 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 189 | 248 | 234 | 482 | 45 | 317 | 42 | 7 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB MLE | TEX | 0% | 230 | 209 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 65 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 199 | 266 | 270 | 536 | 71 | 277 | 28 | 7 | 246 | 53 | -13 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 21 | MLB MLE | TEX | 34% | 116 | 105 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 204 | 272 | 287 | 559 | 83 | 279 | 28 | 8 | 255 | 59 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB CTX | TEX | 34% | 40 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 272 | 288 | 561 | 84 | 278 | 28 | 8 | 256 | 59 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 40 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 189 | 250 | 216 | 466 | 27 | 269 | 28 | 8 | 256 | 46 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 601 | 114 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 179 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 190 | 251 | 216 | 467 | 27 | 270 | 28 | 8 | 256 | 46 | -32 | +3 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 583 | 515 | 102 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 50 | 157 | 4 | 18 | 6 | 198 | 274 | 252 | 527 | 54 | 277 | 27 | 9 | 237 | 46 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 113 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 56 | 175 | 4 | 20 | 7 | 197 | 273 | 249 | 522 | 52 | 275 | 27 | 9 | 237 | 46 | -33 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ROKACL Rangers · 120 PAwOBA .296 → .210 (−86)K% 29.2% → 42.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.17% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 42.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 6.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 27.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 4.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 1.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .296 → .210; ISO .058 → .039; BABIP .380 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 DSLDSL Rangers Red · 147 PAwOBA .364 → .252 (−112)K% 16.3% → 19.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.33% | ÷1.004 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 9.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.36% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.72% | ÷0.993 | ×0.680 | ×1.001 | ×0.995 | 19.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.51% | ÷1.108 | ×0.600 | ×1.001 | ×0.995 | 4.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.13% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | ×1.001 | ×0.995 | 1.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.259 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 152, 1B 99, 2B 122, 3B 80, K 101, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .364 → .252; ISO .102 → .064; BABIP .385 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Rangers Blue · 137 PAwOBA .310 → .224 (−86)K% 16.8% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.79% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.87% | ÷0.955 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 10.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.73% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.017 | ×0.680 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 18.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.44% | ÷0.986 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 2.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.11% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.059 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 103, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 98, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .310 → .224; ISO .053 → .034; BABIP .312 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).