Joaquin Arias Jr.

Joaquin Arias Jr.OF ACL Rangers

Age 19 L/L 6'1" / 160 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION96 act + 64 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .266 / .271

PA64

HR0

K%30

BB%8

BABIP300

ISO68

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 44 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT44

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE56

scouting grade only

SPEED54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rangers Blue	—	137	119	24	3	1	0	13	34	1	8	1	202	286	244	529	42	273	25	9	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rangers Blue	—	137	113	29	4	1	0	19	23	1	8	1	257	368	310	678	53	312	17	14	310	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Rangers Red	—	147	127	31	5	2	0	12	34	2	4	3	244	319	315	634	71	326	23	8	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Rangers Red	—	147	118	37	8	2	0	21	24	2	4	3	314	426	415	841	102	385	16	14	368	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	TEX	—	96	86	17	2	1	0	7	37	0	2	1	198	258	244	502	47	333	39	7	224	30	-8	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.6
YTD	19	ROK	TEX	—	96	82	22	3	1	0	11	26	0	2	1	268	355	329	684	61	379	27	11	307	93	-1	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.1
ROS	19	ROK	TEX	0%	64	59	12	2	1	0	5	19	0	1	0	203	266	271	537	68	290	30	8	249	49	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
ROS	19	MLB	TEX	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		292	—	—	245	46	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	TEX	—	96	87	17	2	1	0	7	37	0	2	1	195	258	241	499	46	327	39	7	224	30	-8	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.6
TOT	19	ROK	TEX	—	160	145	29	4	2	0	12	56	0	3	1	200	261	255	516	55	319	35	8	234	37	-11	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	TEX	34%	209	189	39	7	1	2	16	61	2	4	1	206	275	286	561	79	293	29	8	263	60	-10	+0	+0	-1	+6	-0.5
2028	21	MLB	TEX	48%	340	307	66	11	2	5	27	97	3	7	2	215	285	313	598	98	294	29	8	273	67	-13	+1	+0	-2	+10	-0.5
2027	20	MLB	TEX	34%	72	65	14	2	1	1	6	21	1	1	0	215	292	323	615	108	295	29	8	258	56	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
2028	21	MLB	TEX	48%	165	149	31	5	1	2	13	47	2	3	1	208	280	295	576	87	296	28	8	267	63	-7	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	237	215	45	7	2	3	19	68	3	4	1	209	284	302	586	93	290	29	8	264	60	-11	+0	+0	-1	+7	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	123	19	5	8	52	186	8	11	3	208	283	298	581	90	288	29	8	264	60	-29	+1	+0	-4	+18	-1.4
Career	—			—	897	801	172	28	7	7	73	245	8	24	7	215	287	293	580	79	296	27	8	263	59	-41	+2	+0	-5	+25	-1.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	124	20	5	5	53	178	6	17	5	214	286	291	578	78	295	27	8	263	59	-30	+1	+0	-4	+18	-1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rangers Blue	—	137	113	29	4	1	0	19	23	1	8	1	257	368	310	678	53	312	17	14	310	95	-1	+1	—	—	+4	0.4
2025	18	ROK	DSL Rangers Red	—	147	118	37	8	2	0	21	24	2	4	3	314	426	415	841	102	385	16	14	368	140	+7	-0	—	—	+4	1.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Gary Bennettlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,703 PA	8	1,703	20	6	239	301	327	+17	+6	2.6	2.6
	/162	664	8	2	239	301	327	+6.7	+2.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	359	4	7	211	278	301	-2	+0	-0.8	-0.4
	/162	664	8	12	211	278	301	-4.0	+0.0	-1.5	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Joaquin Arias Jr. (OGILVIE)	19	39→44	28→33	49→54	56	200/261/255	55	319	0	3	35%	8%	37	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yohairo Cuevas 2023 · A	19	41→40	37→40	49→50	44	189/267/264	76	304	4	9	36%	9%	47	-1.9	195/281/283	88	315	5	14	36%	10%	59	-1.1	194/297/288	95	310	5	16	35%	11%	65	-0.4
✕Ayendy Perez 2013 · A	19	46	35→30	49→60	48	211/290/270	59	283	1	12	24%	8%	58	-1.2	228/291/287	59	290	1	24	20%	8%	62	-0.9	236/296/289	54	295	0	33	19%	7%	61	-0.4
✕T.J. Schofield-Sam 2021 · A	20	43→48	36→40	50→40	43	201/262/270	69	294	4	7	31%	7%	46	-2.0	214/267/309	95	294	7	5	28%	5%	58	-1.2	217/266/305	89	284	7	4	25%	3%	55	-1.0
✕Oswal Leones 2021 · A	20	41	36→30	46→50	46	196/259/262	66	262	4	12	25%	7%	43	-2.2	196/259/262	66	296	3	8	32%	7%	43	-2.2	176/243/231	55	271	2	9	33%	7%	25	-1.1
✕Jaden Rudd 2022 · A	19	44→36	40→30	51→50	45	207/290/299	92	294	6	11	30%	8%	66	-0.6	182/289/257	75	276	4	13	32%	10%	57	-1.2	157/280/216	59	252	3	16	34%	11%	41	-1.0
✕Luis Domoromo 2011 · A	19	42→49	36→45	51→45	48	199/278/267	68	270	3	8	26%	9%	53	-1.5	211/255/308	97	280	9	6	27%	5%	53	-1.5	210/247/320	111	281	11	5	29%	4%	48	-1.3
✕Andy Sugilio 2016 · A	19	45→52	36→40	49→50	44	210/256/282	72	268	2	8	22%	6%	45	-2.1	223/260/301	78	291	4	12	23%	5%	52	-1.6	238/265/318	80	304	4	15	23%	3%	55	-0.6
✕Jakey Josepha 2023 · A	19	45	36→40	51→55	47	207/280/267	60	298	4	12	30%	9%	53	-1.5	193/261/274	81	324	7	13	39%	8%	47	-1.9	171/242/250	79	295	8	17	41%	8%	32	-1.3
✕Ricardo Rosario 2022 · A	19	40	37→40	53→55	42	193/254/272	79	260	4	13	26%	6%	43	-2.2	199/267/282	83	276	6	17	28%	7%	52	-1.6	193/273/276	82	259	9	24	27%	8%	51	-0.6
✕Andry Arias 2019 · A	19	43	39→40	48→40	42	206/265/298	92	278	5	5	27%	6%	54	-1.4	189/256/283	94	285	8	8	34%	7%	47	-1.9	151/225/243	92	238	9	6	38%	7%	22	-1.0
✕Jean Ramirez 2019 · A	18	46→49	37→40	51→65	46	214/280/284	70	289	4	15	26%	8%	57	-1.2	219/282/287	68	284	5	22	23%	7%	59	-1.1	207/271/275	68	274	7	39	25%	7%	50	-0.6
✕Michael De La Cruz 2015 · A	19	43	35→40	46→50	50	199/283/256	57	281	2	10	28%	10%	52	-1.6	188/254/253	65	290	3	9	33%	8%	38	-2.6	169/235/227	58	265	2	10	34%	7%	21	-1.3
✕Frederick Bencosme 2022 · A	19	46→44	39→40	53→55	44	219/263/311	91	263	6	12	19%	5%	56	-1.3	231/285/307	76	287	4	16	20%	7%	64	-0.8	198/258/294	96	236	11	18	21%	7%	48	-1.1
✕Juan Crousset 2009 · A	19	43	37→45	51→45	39	208/252/282	74	277	5	10	26%	4%	43	-2.2	209/245/286	77	311	6	9	33%	4%	42	-2.3	212/246/328	116	322	13	6	37%	4%	52	-0.7
✕Vicmal De La Cruz 2013 · A	19	42	39→40	49→50	43	201/264/291	89	282	5	8	29%	7%	52	-1.6	183/238/255	72	271	4	6	32%	6%	32	-3.0	149/204/202	52	220	3	3	32%	5%	1	-1.4
✕Esteban González 2022 · A	19	47→43	37→45	55	44	216/295/307	91	310	2	12	29%	7%	70	-0.3	209/276/307	98	303	6	18	31%	6%	62	-0.9	204/265/321	117	295	9	29	32%	5%	58	-0.5
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2021 · A	19	44	37→50	49→50	47	210/269/289	79	269	4	8	22%	7%	53	-1.5	208/258/308	100	282	7	9	27%	6%	53	-1.5	227/286/389	162	266	21	9	23%	7%	84	+0.3
✕Victor Padron 2013 · A	19	46	37→30	53→55	51	217/289/294	76	266	4	10	19%	8%	63	-0.8	230/291/277	47	289	1	15	19%	8%	59	-1.1	242/307/262	20	301	0	20	18%	9%	58	-0.4
✕Edgar Figueroa 2014 · A	19	44	38→40	52→45	45	211/260/296	84	266	4	7	22%	6%	50	-1.7	203/250/281	78	275	4	5	26%	5%	43	-2.2	189/233/255	66	257	4	3	27%	5%	25	-1.0
✕Theo Bowe 2010 · A	19	43→53	35→30	54→60	43	199/260/256	57	286	2	18	29%	7%	41	-2.3	224/284/282	58	307	2	24	26%	7%	57	-1.2	241/303/292	51	325	2	37	24%	7%	66	-0.4