Joaquin Arias Jr.OF
DSL Rangers Red
Age 19
L/L
6'1" / 160 lbs
ROK
K +3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 2.8 · 2034
wRC+†76
AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .292 / .331
PA122
HR2
K%27
BB%9
MLB%0%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
46↗51
PWR
28↗33
SPD
50↗55
EYE
52↗57
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.7peak
2033
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +2.6 | $25M | +$24M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +2.7 | $27M | +$26M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +2.8 | $28M | +$27M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +2.6 | $27M | +$22M |
| 2036 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +2.4 | $26M | +$18M |
| 2037 | Ext / FA-deal | $10M | +2.2 | $24M | +$14M |
| Totals | $27M | $157M | +$131M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rangers Blue | 137 | 119 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 34 | 1 | 8 | 1 | .193 | .278 | .218 | .497 | .025 | .261 | 25 | 9 | .235 | 38 | -10 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rangers Red | 147 | 127 | 31 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 34 | 2 | 4 | 3 | .244 | .319 | .315 | .634 | .071 | .326 | 23 | 8 | .275 | 69 | -5 | -0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | MLB | TEX | 122 | 110 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .218 | .289 | .327 | .617 | .109 | .290 | 27 | 8 | .284 | 76 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB 11% | TEX | 209 | 185 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 54 | 2 | 5 | 1 | .232 | .314 | .368 | .682 | .135 | .297 | 26 | 10 | .305 | 92 | -2 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB 28% | TEX | 340 | 299 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 84 | 4 | 8 | 2 | .241 | .326 | .388 | .714 | .147 | .298 | 25 | 10 | .318 | 101 | +0 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +10 | 0.9 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB 48% | TEX | 434 | 381 | 92 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 45 | 103 | 5 | 10 | 2 | .241 | .329 | .394 | .723 | .152 | .298 | 24 | 10 | .326 | 108 | +4 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +12 | 1.5 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB 65% | TEX | 497 | 435 | 107 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 53 | 116 | 6 | 12 | 3 | .246 | .336 | .407 | .743 | .161 | .298 | 23 | 11 | .332 | 112 | +7 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +14 | 1.9 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB 82% | TEX | 538 | 467 | 116 | 20 | 3 | 17 | 59 | 123 | 7 | 12 | 3 | .248 | .341 | .413 | .755 | .165 | .299 | 23 | 11 | .336 | 115 | +9 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +15 | 2.3 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 563 | 488 | 122 | 21 | 4 | 18 | 63 | 128 | 7 | 13 | 3 | .250 | .344 | .420 | .764 | .170 | .300 | 23 | 11 | .339 | 118 | +11 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +16 | 2.6 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 575 | 498 | 125 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 65 | 131 | 7 | 13 | 2 | .251 | .346 | .420 | .765 | .169 | .300 | 23 | 11 | .341 | 119 | +12 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +16 | 2.7 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 579 | 501 | 126 | 22 | 4 | 19 | 66 | 132 | 7 | 13 | 2 | .251 | .347 | .425 | .772 | .174 | .300 | 23 | 11 | .341 | 119 | +12 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +16 | 2.8 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 576 | 498 | 123 | 22 | 3 | 18 | 66 | 133 | 7 | 12 | 2 | .247 | .343 | .412 | .755 | .165 | .300 | 23 | 11 | .340 | 118 | +12 | +2 | -1 | -3 | +16 | 2.6 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 568 | 490 | 121 | 21 | 3 | 18 | 66 | 133 | 7 | 11 | 2 | .247 | .345 | .412 | .757 | .165 | .299 | 23 | 12 | .338 | 117 | +11 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +16 | 2.4 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 558 | 481 | 117 | 20 | 3 | 17 | 65 | 132 | 7 | 11 | 1 | .243 | .342 | .403 | .745 | .160 | .298 | 24 | 12 | .335 | 114 | +9 | +2 | -2 | -3 | +16 | 2.2 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 544 | 470 | 113 | 20 | 3 | 16 | 63 | 131 | 6 | 10 | 0 | .240 | .338 | .398 | .736 | .157 | .296 | 24 | 12 | .331 | 111 | +7 | +2 | -3 | -3 | +15 | 1.9 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 526 | 454 | 108 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 61 | 129 | 6 | 9 | 0 | .238 | .336 | .392 | .728 | .154 | .295 | 25 | 12 | .326 | 108 | +5 | +2 | -4 | -3 | +15 | 1.5 |
| 2040 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 497 | 431 | 101 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 57 | 126 | 6 | 8 | 0 | .234 | .332 | .385 | .717 | .151 | .294 | 25 | 11 | .321 | 104 | +2 | +2 | -4 | -3 | +14 | 1.1 |
| 2041 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 450 | 391 | 89 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 118 | 5 | 8 | 0 | .228 | .324 | .368 | .693 | .141 | .292 | 26 | 11 | .314 | 99 | -1 | +2 | -5 | -3 | +13 | 0.6 |
| 2042 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 396 | 344 | 77 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 45 | 108 | 4 | 7 | 0 | .224 | .321 | .360 | .681 | .137 | .290 | 27 | 11 | .306 | 93 | -3 | +1 | -6 | -2 | +11 | 0.1 |
| 2043 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 336 | 291 | 63 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 95 | 4 | 6 | 0 | .216 | .315 | .347 | .662 | .131 | .287 | 28 | 11 | .297 | 86 | -5 | +1 | -6 | -2 | +10 | -0.3 |
| 2044 | 37 | MLB | TEX | 271 | 236 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 79 | 3 | 5 | 0 | .208 | .305 | .326 | .631 | .119 | .283 | 29 | 11 | .288 | 78 | -7 | +1 | -7 | -2 | +8 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8863 | 7696 | 1842 | 318 | 52 | 249 | 982 | 2156 | 104 | 187 | 28 | .239 | .333 | .391 | .725 | .152 | .298 | 24 | 11 | .324 | 106 | +65 | +26 | -38 | -53 | +251 | 25.6 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 564 | 135 | 23 | 4 | 18 | 72 | 158 | 8 | 14 | 2 | .239 | .334 | .390 | .724 | .151 | .298 | 24 | 11 | .324 | 106 | +5 | +2 | -3 | -4 | +18 | 1.9 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rangers Blue | 137 | 113 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 1 | .257 | .368 | .310 | .678 | .053 | .312 | 17 | 14 | .310 | 95 | -1 | +1 | — | — | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rangers Red | 147 | 118 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 3 | .314 | .426 | .415 | .841 | .102 | .385 | 16 | 14 | .368 | 140 | +7 | -0 | — | — | +4 | 1.1 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Joaquin Arias Jr. (OGILVIE) | 19 | 46→51 | 28→33 | 50→55 | 57 | .217/.292/.331 | .114 | .290 | 2 | 2 | 27% | 9% | 76 | +0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Forrest Wall 2015 · A |
19 | 47→56 | 41→45 | 56→70 | 47 | .226/.290/.328 | .102 | .300 | 7 | 17 | 26% | 8% | 72 | -0.2 | .218/.270/.316 | .098 | .284 | 7 | 16 | 24% | 6% | 60 | -1.0 | .260/.332/.371 | .111 | .354 | 9 | 50 | 27% | 9% | 98 | +1.0 |
|
●Justin Crawford 2023 · A |
19 | 46→56 | 37→45 | 51→60 | 41 | .213/.274/.288 | .076 | .314 | 5 | 17 | 32% | 7% | 56 | -1.3 | .272/.317/.374 | .102 | .360 | 6 | 33 | 25% | 6% | 95 | +1.4 | .294/.339/.402 | .108 | .380 | 7 | 41 | 23% | 6% | 107 | +1.7 |
|
●Gavin Lux 2018 · A |
20 | 46→56 | 39→50 | 53→50 | 46 | .218/.277/.306 | .088 | .285 | 6 | 12 | 25% | 7% | 61 | -1.0 | .245/.301/.388 | .143 | .311 | 15 | 11 | 25% | 7% | 93 | +1.3 | .260/.330/.404 | .144 | .327 | 14 | 8 | 23% | 9% | 106 | +1.8 |
|
●Roman Anthony 2023 · A |
19 | 47→57 | 38→50 | 50 | 47 | .224/.278/.302 | .078 | .274 | 5 | 7 | 20% | 7% | 60 | -1.0 | .237/.316/.382 | .145 | .331 | 15 | 12 | 30% | 10% | 98 | +1.6 | .246/.334/.407 | .161 | .338 | 17 | 12 | 29% | 11% | 109 | +2.1 |
|
●J.P. Crawford 2014 · A |
19 | 49→58 | 37→45 | 50 | 48 | .231/.293/.308 | .076 | .300 | 4 | 13 | 23% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .243/.308/.337 | .094 | .291 | 8 | 13 | 18% | 8% | 82 | +0.5 | .263/.355/.386 | .123 | .307 | 11 | 2 | 17% | 11% | 113 | +2.8 |
|
●Alex Verdugo 2015 · A |
19 | 52→58 | 40→50 | 56→45 | 48 | .249/.301/.351 | .102 | .285 | 6 | 11 | 15% | 6% | 83 | +0.6 | .253/.290/.359 | .106 | .289 | 9 | 7 | 16% | 5% | 80 | +0.4 | .289/.349/.442 | .153 | .326 | 15 | 7 | 16% | 8% | 121 | +2.1 |
|
✕Akil Baddoo 2018 · A |
19 | 45→51 | 41→55 | 52→55 | 48 | .216/.292/.327 | .111 | .287 | 7 | 10 | 26% | 9% | 74 | -0.1 | .201/.275/.318 | .117 | .293 | 8 | 13 | 31% | 9% | 64 | -0.8 | .232/.314/.375 | .143 | .300 | 15 | 24 | 26% | 11% | 91 | +0.8 |
|
✕Adrian Cardenas 2007 · A |
19 | 47→57 | 39→40 | 54→50 | 43 | .224/.276/.310 | .086 | .292 | 6 | 13 | 24% | 6% | 62 | -0.9 | .246/.290/.340 | .094 | .299 | 7 | 12 | 19% | 6% | 75 | -0.0 | .269/.318/.358 | .090 | .312 | 5 | 8 | 15% | 6% | 90 | +0.9 |
|
✕Tirso Ornelas 2019 · A |
19 | 43→53 | 41→50 | 50→45 | 46 | .210/.278/.308 | .098 | .289 | 8 | 5 | 29% | 8% | 63 | -0.9 | .192/.256/.270 | .078 | .279 | 5 | 5 | 30% | 8% | 43 | -2.2 | .245/.303/.373 | .128 | .302 | 14 | 7 | 23% | 7% | 87 | +0.8 |
|
●Oscar Taveras 2011 · A |
19 | 44→54 | 42→55 | 49→45 | 42 | .216/.260/.323 | .108 | .269 | 8 | 9 | 23% | 5% | 58 | -1.2 | .270/.309/.419 | .149 | .313 | 13 | 7 | 18% | 5% | 104 | +2.0 | .293/.330/.463 | .170 | .326 | 16 | 7 | 15% | 4% | 124 | +2.0 |
|
✕Daniel Montesino 2023 · A |
19 | 48 | 40 | 48→45 | 46 | .220/.301/.315 | .094 | .332 | 6 | 8 | 33% | 9% | 74 | -0.1 | .200/.267/.273 | .073 | .315 | 3 | 9 | 34% | 7% | 49 | -1.8 | .172/.232/.221 | .049 | .286 | 0 | 8 | 37% | 6% | 18 | -1.1 |
|
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A |
19 | 39→41 | 42→50 | 53→55 | 44 | .191/.270/.293 | .102 | .283 | 10 | 11 | 34% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .199/.283/.318 | .119 | .317 | 11 | 15 | 37% | 9% | 69 | -0.4 | .216/.296/.349 | .133 | .314 | 15 | 19 | 33% | 9% | 78 | +0.1 |
|
✕Yeicok Calderon 2011 · A |
19 | 48 | 42→45 | 49→45 | 47 | .231/.304/.339 | .108 | .311 | 9 | 7 | 27% | 9% | 82 | +0.5 | .196/.251/.318 | .122 | .305 | 13 | 6 | 38% | 6% | 54 | -1.4 | .179/.225/.300 | .121 | .279 | 15 | 3 | 40% | 5% | 36 | -0.9 |
|
●Brandon Marsh 2018 · A |
20 | 49→59 | 42→50 | 54→50 | 37 | .235/.276/.347 | .112 | .314 | 8 | 11 | 27% | 4% | 72 | -0.2 | .221/.280/.325 | .104 | .331 | 8 | 12 | 33% | 7% | 68 | -0.5 | .262/.344/.424 | .163 | .366 | 16 | 16 | 30% | 11% | 115 | +2.2 |
|
✕Jose Paez 2013 · A |
19 | 47 | 39→45 | 51→50 | 42 | .223/.278/.315 | .092 | .300 | 5 | 13 | 26% | 6% | 64 | -0.8 | .211/.257/.296 | .085 | .311 | 4 | 11 | 32% | 5% | 50 | -1.8 | .178/.220/.246 | .068 | .283 | 3 | 12 | 36% | 4% | 17 | -1.1 |
|
●Michael Harris II 2021 · A |
20 | 44→54 | 39→55 | 52→55 | 41 | .212/.263/.298 | .086 | .291 | 6 | 10 | 28% | 6% | 53 | -1.5 | .258/.304/.406 | .148 | .329 | 14 | 21 | 25% | 5% | 99 | +1.7 | .278/.321/.456 | .177 | .328 | 21 | 21 | 21% | 5% | 116 | +2.7 |
|
●Brice Turang 2019 · A |
19 | 46→56 | 36→45 | 53→60 | 48 | .216/.286/.284 | .068 | .296 | 4 | 14 | 27% | 9% | 59 | -1.1 | .213/.287/.280 | .067 | .286 | 4 | 16 | 24% | 9% | 59 | -1.1 | .273/.346/.393 | .120 | .333 | 12 | 35 | 20% | 10% | 107 | +1.7 |
|
✕Victor Arias 2023 · A |
19 | 46 | 38→45 | 49→50 | 43 | .205/.282/.285 | .080 | .335 | 4 | 11 | 37% | 9% | 59 | -1.1 | .215/.299/.323 | .108 | .322 | 9 | 16 | 33% | 9% | 76 | +0.1 | .219/.297/.335 | .116 | .314 | 10 | 18 | 31% | 8% | 75 | +0.0 |
|
✕Jesus Morelli 2009 · A |
19 | 49 | 42→45 | 48→50 | 49 | .233/.310/.344 | .110 | .300 | 9 | 12 | 24% | 8% | 85 | +0.7 | .223/.286/.295 | .072 | .303 | 4 | 10 | 26% | 6% | 63 | -0.9 | .219/.279/.260 | .041 | .287 | 0 | 14 | 22% | 6% | 47 | -0.5 |
|
✕Vicmal De La Cruz 2013 · A |
19 | 43 | 39→40 | 49→50 | 44 | .204/.268/.293 | .089 | .282 | 5 | 8 | 28% | 7% | 54 | -1.4 | .184/.239/.257 | .073 | .271 | 4 | 6 | 32% | 6% | 33 | -2.9 | .149/.204/.202 | .052 | .220 | 3 | 3 | 32% | 5% | 1 | -1.4 |