Joaquin Arias Jr.

Joaquin Arias Jr.OF ACL Rangers

Age 19 L/L 6'1" / 160 lbs ROK HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION120 act + 11 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .273 / .200

PA11

HR0

K%27

BB%9

BABIP293

ISO74

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 41 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT41

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rangers Blue	—	137	113	29	4	1	0	19	23	1	8	1	257	368	310	678	53	312	17	14	310	96	-1	+1	—	—	+3	0.4
2025	18	ROK	DSL Rangers Red	—	147	118	37	8	2	0	21	24	2	4	3	314	426	415	841	102	385	16	14	368	135	+6	-0	—	—	+3	0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	137	120	24	3	1	0	12	34	1	8	1	200	278	242	520	42	258	25	9	238	47	-9	+1	—	—	+3	-0.5
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	147	126	30	5	2	0	13	34	2	4	3	238	319	310	629	71	304	23	9	274	72	-5	-0	—	—	+3	-0.2
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	137	120	24	3	1	0	12	34	1	8	1	200	278	242	520	42	270	25	9	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	—	137	113	29	4	1	0	19	23	1	8	1	257	368	310	678	53	312	17	14	310	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	147	126	30	5	2	0	13	34	2	4	3	238	319	310	629	71	319	23	9	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Red	—	147	118	37	8	2	0	21	24	2	4	3	314	426	415	841	102	385	16	14	368	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	137	123	24	3	1	0	12	34	1	8	1	195	278	236	514	41	258	25	9	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	147	131	30	5	2	0	13	34	2	4	3	229	319	298	617	69	304	23	9	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	137	123	24	3	1	0	12	34	1	8	1	195	278	236	514	41	258	25	9	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	147	131	30	5	2	0	13	34	2	4	3	229	319	298	617	69	304	23	9	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	TEX	—	120	109	21	3	1	0	8	50	0	3	1	193	248	239	486	46	344	42	7	211	29	-10	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK RAW	TEX	—	120	104	27	4	1	0	13	35	0	3	1	260	342	317	659	58	380	29	11	298	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	ROK MLE	TEX	0%	11	10	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	200	273	200	473		292	27	9	244	51	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	19	ROK MLE	TEX	—	131	119	23	3	1	0	9	53	0	3	1	193	250	235	485	42	338	40	7	214	31	-11	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	TEX	34%	209	189	39	7	1	2	16	63	2	4	1	206	275	286	561	79	292	30	8	257	60	-10	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.6
2027	20	MLB CTX	TEX	34%	72	65	13	2	0	1	6	22	1	1	0	200	278	277	555	77	294	31	8	254	60	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	72	65	13	2	0	1	6	22	1	1	0	200	278	277	555	77	286	31	8	254	60	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	117	18	0	9	54	199	9	9	0	199	277	276	553	77	285	31	8	254	60	-31	+2	+0	-4	+14	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	504	445	95	15	4	2	42	134	5	16	5	213	289	279	567	65	295	27	8	257	60	-10	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	122	19	5	3	54	173	6	21	6	213	287	279	566	66	293	27	8	257	60	-31	+1	+0	-4	+14	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Joaquin Arias Jr. (OGILVIE)	19	36→41	28→33	49→54	55	196/262/264	68	292	1	2	31%	7%	51	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yohairo Cuevas 2023 · A	19	41→38	37→40	49→50	44	190/267/265	75	303	4	9	36%	9%	53	-2.1	194/280/281	87	310	5	14	35%	10%	63	-1.4	189/288/270	81	300	4	18	34%	11%	62	-0.8
✕Jaden Rudd 2022 · A	19	44→36	40→30	51→50	45	207/290/299	92	294	6	11	30%	8%	70	-0.8	180/288/254	74	275	4	13	32%	10%	61	-1.5	154/279/213	59	249	3	16	34%	11%	47	-1.1
✕Jakey Josepha 2023 · A	19	45→42	36→40	52→55	46	210/278/270	60	299	3	12	29%	8%	58	-1.7	196/264/275	79	326	7	13	38%	8%	55	-2.0	176/247/255	79	300	7	17	41%	8%	43	-1.2
✕Ricardo Rosario 2022 · A	19	41	37→40	53→55	43	195/256/271	76	260	4	13	25%	6%	50	-2.3	197/266/280	83	273	6	17	28%	7%	56	-1.9	189/268/272	83	254	9	24	27%	8%	54	-0.8
✕Sauris Mejia 2015 · A	18	42	35→40	48→50	45	193/273/252	59	282	2	13	30%	8%	53	-2.1	205/290/285	80	293	6	12	29%	9%	67	-1.1	189/292/264	75	265	7	15	28%	11%	61	-0.5
✕Michael Swinson 2009 · A	19	40	36→40	50	38	186/247/251	65	303	3	10	37%	6%	42	-2.9	207/272/297	90	287	6	11	28%	8%	62	-1.4	190/261/261	70	255	3	11	25%	8%	47	-1.1
✕Andry Arias 2019 · A	19	43	39→40	48→40	42	206/265/298	92	278	5	5	27%	6%	59	-1.6	190/256/284	94	287	8	8	34%	7%	54	-2.0	152/225/244	92	236	9	6	38%	7%	31	-1.0
✕Jesus Loya 2011 · A	19	43	35→40	51→50	49	202/269/262	61	263	1	11	22%	8%	53	-2.1	220/266/284	64	281	3	12	21%	5%	56	-1.9	232/278/291	58	296	2	10	21%	5%	60	-0.6
✕T.J. Schofield-Sam 2021 · A	20	43→47	36→40	50→40	43	201/262/270	69	294	4	7	31%	7%	52	-2.2	211/264/306	95	291	7	5	29%	5%	61	-1.5	215/266/305	89	282	7	4	25%	3%	60	-1.2
✕Esteban González 2022 · A	19	47→43	37→45	55	44	215/294/306	91	310	2	12	29%	7%	73	-0.6	209/276/305	96	304	6	18	31%	6%	66	-1.1	203/264/313	110	295	9	29	32%	5%	62	-0.6
✕Oswal Leones 2021 · A	20	41	36→30	46→50	46	196/259/262	66	262	4	12	25%	7%	49	-2.4	198/260/265	67	297	3	8	31%	7%	50	-2.3	180/247/237	57	275	2	9	33%	7%	36	-1.1
✕Delbis Arcila 2012 · A	19	41	39→45	46→45	47	198/273/285	87	278	6	7	29%	9%	60	-1.6	207/272/312	105	293	9	6	30%	8%	66	-1.1	202/268/315	113	282	10	4	30%	8%	64	-0.6
✕Ricardo Marcano 2014 · A	19	42	38→45	50	43	199/253/289	90	263	4	9	25%	6%	53	-2.1	205/250/292	87	291	5	9	30%	5%	52	-2.2	193/221/262	69	277	5	8	32%	3%	32	-1.0
✕Steven De La Mota 2013 · A	19	39	36→30	52→50	43	187/246/254	67	243	3	10	24%	6%	42	-2.9	206/272/271	65	289	3	10	28%	7%	56	-1.9	202/274/242	40	284	2	13	27%	7%	47	-0.9
✕Edgar Figueroa 2014 · A	19	44	38→40	52→45	45	211/260/296	84	266	4	7	22%	6%	56	-1.9	203/250/281	78	275	4	5	26%	5%	49	-2.4	189/233/255	66	257	4	3	27%	5%	33	-1.0
✕Shane Mardirosian 2015 · A	19	37→40	35→40	47→45	42	176/238/240	64	244	2	9	27%	6%	36	-3.3	198/247/271	73	276	4	10	28%	5%	47	-2.6	196/246/267	70	274	4	9	28%	5%	43	-1.3
✕Frederick Bencosme 2022 · A	19	46→45	39→40	53→55	44	219/263/311	91	263	6	12	19%	5%	61	-1.5	230/284/306	76	285	5	16	20%	7%	68	-1.0	220/278/290	69	272	4	21	20%	7%	59	-1.2
✕Yeniel Laboy 2023 · A	19	43	37→30	51→45	39	200/258/272	72	317	4	9	36%	7%	51	-2.2	194/274/251	57	279	3	6	29%	9%	53	-2.1	176/266/215	39	252	2	5	28%	9%	41	-1.2
✕Lexer Saduy 2022 · A	19	44	36→40	50	47	206/280/277	71	283	2	8	26%	8%	61	-1.5	198/271/269	71	309	4	12	34%	8%	56	-1.9	182/258/248	65	290	5	15	36%	7%	45	-0.9
✕Edidson Rojas 2018 · A	19	41	38→40	50→55	42	192/266/269	77	290	5	14	33%	7%	54	-2.0	188/266/260	72	286	4	10	33%	8%	53	-2.1	167/253/227	60	254	4	10	33%	9%	38	-1.2