Josdanner Suarez
P
Visalia Rawhide
+0.2
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'3" / 170 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.6 · 2029
ERA4.62
FIP4.62
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.6%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%9.8%
IP53
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2029
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 12 | 6 | 33 | 134 | 33 | 12 | 1 | 16.7% | 11.2% | 0.8% | 2.76 | 3.55 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 19 | 7 | 63 | 298 | 51 | 38 | 3 | 12.3% | 15.4% | 1.3% | 5.68 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 3 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | ARI | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 46 | 24 | 6 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 57 | 245 | 48 | 27 | 6 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 4.45 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | ARI | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 51 | 23 | 6 | 21.8% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 55 | 23 | 7 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.31 | 4.22 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 58 | 22 | 7 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.12 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 60 | 22 | 7 | 23.6% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 4.05 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 60 | 22 | 7 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 4.03 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 60 | — | 60 | 251 | 60 | 22 | 7 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.05 | 4.04 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 59 | — | 59 | 247 | 59 | 22 | 7 | 23.8% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 4.07 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 57 | 21 | 7 | 23.7% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 4.11 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 55 | 21 | 7 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.18 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 53 | 21 | 7 | 23.2% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 50 | 20 | 6 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 47 | 20 | 6 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 34 | 13 | 100 | 453 | 61 | 64 | 5 | 13.5% | 14.1% | 1.1% | 4.59 | 4.34 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 26 | 200 | 906 | 122 | 128 | 10 | 13.5% | 14.1% | 1.1% | 4.59 | 4.34 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josdanner Suarez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.24 | 22.6% | 13.2% | 173 | -0.38 | — | — | — |
| José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.79 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.25 | 3.12 | 543 | 93 |
| David Garner R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.52 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.81 | 154 | 92 |
| Curtis Taylor R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .305 | 3.40 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.57 | 2.58 | 408 | 92 |
| Yimmi Brasoban R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.90 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .261 | 4.36 | 16.7% | 5.3% | 78 | +0.46 | 3.33 | 149 | 92 |
| William Kempner R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .277 | 3.24 | 27.3% | 11.8% | 68 | -0.80 | 3.24 | 129 | 92 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.45 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .331 | 6.10 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.65 | 4.45 | 283 | 91 |
| Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.71 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | .295 | 5.34 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.63 | 4.71 | 137 | 91 |
| Brendan Collins R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.69 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.16 | 3.69 | 122 | 91 |
| Aaron Holiday R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.81 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 3.9% | .310 | 5.20 | 19.7% | -3.3% | 59 | +0.39 | 4.72 | 116 | 90 |
| Tanner Burns R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.38 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .292 | 5.40 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.02 | 4.38 | 355 | 90 |
| John Klein R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.53 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .287 | 3.72 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 207 | -0.81 | 3.22 | 260 | 90 |
| Brett Standlee R 2028 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.11 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .322 | 4.48 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 75 | +0.37 | 4.11 | 128 | 89 |
| Craig Missigman R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.02 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.04 | 19.2% | 10.4% | 53 | +1.02 | 4.02 | 124 | 89 |
| Gerson Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.76 | 23.6% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .294 | 5.22 | 21.3% | 2.0% | 17 | +1.46 | 3.66 | 349 | 89 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.50 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.1% | .275 | 4.24 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.26 | 3.32 | 181 | 89 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.24 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.43 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.19 | 4.24 | 225 | 89 |
| Alexis Rivero R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.86 | 19.3% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .282 | 5.05 | 14.0% | 3.4% | 143 | +1.19 | 3.86 | 280 | 89 |
| Juan Nuñez R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.49 | 19.6% | 13.2% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.42 | 22.8% | 8.3% | 148 | -0.07 | 2.88 | 245 | 89 |
| Will Latcham R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.49 | 20.1% | 9.4% | 1.7% | .262 | 5.25 | 16.0% | 4.7% | 79 | +1.76 | 3.49 | 134 | 88 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.56 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .306 | 4.78 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.22 | 3.98 | 371 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $3M | +$0.9M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $5M | $14M | +$8M | ||