Rafael Flores

SS FCL Blue Jays

Age 20 R/R 5'10" / 172 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

Scout OFP45ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKDSL Blue Jays…	175	.256/.442/.357	2	12	55	—	.154/.331/.213
2026	19	ROKTOR	16	.267/.312/.267	0	1	17	—	.200/.250/.200
2027PROJ0% MLB	20	MLBTOR	148	.208/.288/.294	2	3	67	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBTOR	43	.216/.296/.320	1	1	76	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBTOR	129	.222/.301/.342	3	2	83	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

Whiff%90

wOBA82

wRC+81

Z-Con%80

Speed80

K%78

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 95%

CompsChristopher Morel (age 20) · Elehuris Montero (age 19) · Alexis Hernandez (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 45 proj PA

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .286 / .291

PA45

HR0

K%25

BB%8

ISO86

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 37 / POW 62

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT37

scouting grade only

POWER62

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED35

scouting grade only

DEFENSE42

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.9M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	189	153	43	8	2	0	22	35	11	19	4	281	409	359	768	78	364	19	12	353	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	175	129	33	5	1	2	25	28	18	12	2	256	442	357	798	101	304	16	14	374	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	16	15	4	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	267	312	267	579		333	19	6	270	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	189	160	30	5	1	0	15	44	11	19	4	188	301	231	532	44	251	23	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	175	136	21	3	1	1	18	35	18	12	2	154	331	213	545	59	180	20	10	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	16	15	3	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	200	250	200	450		275	25	6	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	189	160	30	5	1	0	15	44	11	19	4	188	301	231	532	44	259	23	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	—	189	153	43	8	2	0	22	35	11	19	4	281	409	359	768	78	364	19	12	353	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	175	136	21	3	1	1	18	35	18	12	2	154	331	213	545	59	194	20	10	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	175	129	33	5	1	2	25	28	18	12	2	256	442	357	798	101	304	16	14	374	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	16	15	3	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	200	250	200	450		273	25	6	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	—	16	15	4	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	267	312	267	579		333	19	6	270	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	189	161	30	5	1	0	15	44	11	19	4	186	301	230	531	43	251	23	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	175	137	21	3	1	1	18	35	18	12	2	153	331	212	543	58	180	20	10	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	16	15	3	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	200	250	200	450		275	25	6	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	189	161	30	5	1	0	15	44	11	19	4	186	301	230	531	43	251	23	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	175	137	21	3	1	1	18	35	18	12	2	153	331	212	543	58	180	20	10	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	16	15	3	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	200	250	200	450		275	25	6	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	TOR	0%	148	132	27	4	1	2	11	37	4	3	0	208	288	294	582	86	273	25	7	268	67	-6	+1	-1	+2	+3	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	TOR	34%	124	110	24	4	1	2	10	30	3	2	0	215	295	319	614	104	275	24	8	280	76	-4	+0	-1	+1	+3	-0.0
2029	22	MLB MLE	TOR	48%	267	238	52	8	2	5	21	65	6	4	1	221	301	341	642	120	278	24	8	291	83	-5	+0	-2	+3	+6	0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	TOR	54%	369	328	75	12	3	9	29	89	9	4	1	226	305	359	664	133	280	24	8	299	89	-5	+0	-3	+4	+8	0.5
2031	24	MLB MLE	TOR	55%	438	391	90	14	3	12	34	105	10	5	1	230	309	374	683	144	282	24	8	306	94	-3	+1	-3	+5	+9	0.9
2032	25	MLB MLE	TOR	56%	479	427	99	16	3	14	38	115	11	5	1	233	311	385	697	152	283	24	8	312	97	-2	+1	-3	+5	+10	1.1
2033	26	MLB MLE	TOR	56%	503	447	104	16	3	16	40	120	11	5	1	235	313	393	706	158	283	24	8	315	99	-0	+1	-3	+5	+11	1.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	TOR	55%	513	456	107	17	3	16	41	123	11	5	1	234	312	391	703	157	282	24	8	314	98	-1	+1	-3	+5	+11	1.3
2035	28	MLB MLE	TOR	55%	516	459	107	17	3	16	41	125	11	4	1	232	310	386	696	154	281	24	8	311	97	-2	+0	-4	+6	+11	1.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	510	454	104	16	3	15	40	125	11	4	1	230	307	380	688	150	280	25	8	308	94	-3	+0	-5	+5	+11	0.9
2037	30	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	503	449	103	16	3	15	39	125	10	3	2	227	304	373	677	146	279	25	8	303	91	-5	-0	-6	+5	+11	0.6
2038	31	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	490	439	98	15	3	14	38	124	10	2	5	223	299	363	663	140	276	25	8	298	88	-7	-2	-6	+5	+11	0.1
2039	32	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	473	425	92	14	3	12	36	122	9	3	7	218	293	351	645	133	272	26	8	290	83	-10	-2	-7	+5	+10	-0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	TOR	34%	43	39	8	1	0	1	3	11	1	1	0	216	296	320	616	105	277	26	7	281	76	-1	+0	-0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	TOR	48%	129	115	26	4	1	3	10	31	3	2	0	222	301	342	644	121	279	24	8	292	83	-3	+0	-1	+1	+3	0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	TOR	54%	200	177	40	6	1	5	16	48	5	2	1	227	306	361	667	134	281	24	8	300	89	-3	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	TOR	55%	243	216	51	8	2	7	19	58	6	3	1	231	310	375	685	144	283	24	8	307	94	-2	+0	-2	+3	+5	0.5
2032	25	MLB CTX	TOR	56%	268	239	56	9	2	8	21	64	6	3	1	234	312	387	699	153	284	24	8	313	97	-1	+0	-2	+3	+6	0.6
2033	26	MLB CTX	TOR	56%	283	253	59	9	2	9	22	68	6	3	1	236	314	395	708	159	284	24	8	316	99	-0	+0	-2	+3	+6	0.7
2034	27	MLB CTX	TOR	55%	284	253	59	9	2	9	23	68	6	3	1	235	313	392	705	157	284	24	8	315	98	-1	+0	-2	+3	+6	0.7
2035	28	MLB CTX	TOR	55%	283	253	59	9	2	9	22	69	6	2	1	233	311	388	698	155	283	24	8	312	97	-1	+0	-2	+3	+6	0.6
2036	29	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	272	243	56	9	2	8	21	67	6	2	1	231	308	382	690	151	282	25	8	309	94	-2	+0	-3	+3	+6	0.4
2037	30	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	265	236	54	8	2	8	21	66	6	2	1	228	305	374	679	146	280	25	8	304	91	-3	+0	-3	+3	+6	0.3
2038	31	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	255	228	52	8	2	7	20	64	5	1	3	224	300	365	665	141	277	25	8	298	88	-4	-1	-3	+3	+6	0.0
2039	32	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	245	219	47	7	1	6	19	63	5	2	4	219	294	352	647	134	274	26	8	291	83	-5	-1	-3	+3	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2770	2471	567	87	19	80	217	677	61	26	15	229	307	377	685	148	282	24	8	306	89	-25	-1	-24	+30	+60	4.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	132	20	4	19	51	159	14	6	4	228	305	374	680	147	279	24	8	306	89	-6	-0	-6	+7	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	5610	4975	1116	174	35	147	444	1362	142	79	28	224	306	362	668	138	277	24	8	300	89	-50	+1	-46	+56	+113	7.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	129	20	4	17	51	158	16	9	3	224	304	361	665	137	277	24	8	300	89	-6	+0	-6	+7	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jack Barry'08-'19 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,902 PA	7.4	4,902	10	153	242*	319*	374*	+43	-16	14.0	14.3
/162	664	1	21	+5.8	-2.2	1.9	pk7: 15
#2Daryl Spencer'52-'63 * career totals — 9 seasons, 4,206 PA	6.3	4,206	105	13	236*	321*	384*	+30	-4	11.2	11.7
/162	664	17	2	+4.8	-0.6	1.8	pk7: 12
#3Brad Millerlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,531 PA	5.3	3,531	123	43	236	314	416	+7	-38	8.8	9.4
/162	664	23	8	+1.4	-7.2	1.7	pk7: 10
#4Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	4.8	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
/162	664	22	3	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.2	2,815	79	26	229	304	374	+30	-21	8.1	7.4
/162	664	19	6	+7.1	-5.0	1.9	pk7: 7
#5Tim Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,743 PA	2.6	1,743	63	13	248	301	431	+19	-13	6.1	6.1
/162	664	24	5	+7.1	-4.8	2.3	pk7: 6
#6Bobby Morgan'50-'58 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,459 PA	3.7	2,459	53	18	225*	327*	368*	+15	-12	5.2	5.3
/162	664	14	5	+4.0	-3.3	1.4	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Flores (OGILVIE)	20	37	62	35	45	206/286/291	85	273	0	1	25%	8%	67	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Christopher Morel 2019 · A	20	37→46	39→60	45→50	46	181/249/261	80	230	7	12	24%	7%	46	-2.6	208/254/327	119	292	11	11	31%	5%	62	-1.4	225/302/430	205	283	27	10	30%	9%	105	+1.6
✕Elehuris Montero 2018 · A	19	38→48	39→55	41→30	45	187/254/273	86	241	6	3	24%	7%	51	-2.3	222/269/346	124	300	12	3	29%	5%	72	-0.7	237/297/419	182	300	24	1	29%	6%	101	+1.1
✕Alexis Hernandez 2023 · A	20	39→49	38→50	47→50	47	186/254/261	75	232	5	11	22%	7%	48	-2.5	208/282/300	92	288	8	17	28%	8%	67	-1.1	220/295/346	126	292	14	18	28%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Nahum Hernandez 2010 · A	20	37	37→40	44→50	44	182/249/251	69	238	5	5	25%	6%	44	-2.8	218/293/305	87	277	6	10	22%	8%	72	-0.7	244/336/340	97	290	6	15	16%	10%	92	+0.2
✕Michael A. Taylor 2011 · A	20	38→48	37→55	46→60	41	184/241/261	77	259	4	5	29%	6%	42	-2.9	198/247/308	110	295	8	17	34%	5%	55	-1.9	240/297/382	142	309	19	14	28%	7%	92	+0.6
✕Anderson Suriel 2024 · A	21	41	37→60	44→50	40	196/247/271	75	267	5	8	28%	6%	47	-2.6	198/258/315	117	298	11	8	35%	6%	62	-1.4	173/238/310	137	255	13	9	36%	5%	50	-0.6
●Jordy Lara 2011 · A	20	31→41	39→55	43→40	52	155/260/238	83	220	6	6	30%	11%	47	-2.6	187/244/305	118	254	12	4	30%	6%	54	-2.0	239/285/388	149	295	15	1	24%	5%	86	+0.3
●Bryan De La Cruz 2016 · A	19	41→51	34→55	40→45	43	191/259/235	44	286	2	6	31%	7%	43	-2.8	209/267/289	80	302	5	6	30%	7%	58	-1.7	270/315/434	164	332	20	4	24%	6%	110	+1.8
✕Rainel Rosario 2009 · A	20	36→46	40→50	45→50	39	175/249/270	95	283	8	9	38%	8%	49	-2.4	208/275/324	116	312	9	9	34%	7%	70	-0.8	246/301/378	133	280	16	6	18%	7%	88	+0.4
✕Leandro Pineda 2022 · A	20	35→45	36→50	43→45	48	168/257/234	66	242	4	7	30%	9%	44	-2.8	190/257/296	106	277	8	5	32%	7%	57	-1.8	218/291/356	137	276	14	5	25%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Dustin Peterson 2015 · A	20	39→49	39→45	42→45	34	193/229/276	83	281	6	3	33%	4%	40	-3.0	221/266/313	92	293	8	4	26%	5%	63	-1.4	240/285/359	119	300	14	2	24%	5%	78	-0.2
✕José Osuna 2011 · A	18	37→47	43→55	40→45	44	185/238/291	106	213	10	5	20%	5%	49	-2.4	219/263/337	118	258	11	6	19%	5%	68	-1.0	252/300/421	169	288	17	4	19%	6%	101	+0.9
●Zoilo Almonte 2008 · A	19	38→48	39→50	44→50	41	189/238/276	87	249	7	5	27%	6%	44	-2.8	206/249/309	103	278	10	7	28%	5%	55	-1.9	257/304/400	143	326	16	13	25%	6%	95	+0.7
●Mark Trumbo 2007 · A	21	38→48	44→65	40→45	40	195/241/306	112	254	12	4	29%	6%	53	-2.1	228/266/373	145	279	17	6	25%	5%	78	-0.3	249/293/466	217	286	30	6	25%	5%	111	+2.2
✕Balbino Fuenmayor 2010 · A	20	43→50	40→50	39→30	29	205/231/295	90	320	7	2	38%	3%	45	-2.7	197/233/295	98	315	9	3	39%	4%	47	-2.6	274/301/416	142	321	17	0	20%	3%	98	+0.7
✕Jerar Encarnacion 2018 · A	20	38→45	41→50	45	32	189/231/289	100	301	9	6	39%	4%	45	-2.7	194/239/294	100	308	10	5	38%	5%	49	-2.4	223/288/380	158	332	23	6	38%	8%	86	+0.2
✕Tony Blanco Jr. 2024 · A	19	40	40→70	44→30	34	180/241/264	84	336	8	4	46%	7%	43	-2.8	207/267/355	148	339	19	3	42%	7%	74	-0.5	202/263/411	209	287	31	1	40%	7%	83	+0.0
✕Willy García 2012 · A	19	39→49	40→50	46→45	38	192/246/283	92	261	7	9	29%	5%	49	-2.4	203/239/331	128	307	15	8	37%	4%	57	-1.8	240/282/369	129	333	12	4	30%	5%	79	-0.1
●Rangel Ravelo 2011 · A	19	44→54	37→50	42→45	41	211/246/283	72	263	4	4	21%	4%	48	-2.5	248/289/327	79	303	3	5	18%	5%	74	-0.5	264/334/421	157	300	18	0	18%	8%	111	+1.1
✕Luis Hidalgo 2016 · A	20	41	36→45	46→45	48	191/248/253	62	220	4	11	15%	6%	43	-2.8	200/257/305	105	236	11	10	20%	5%	59	-1.7	203/258/315	113	230	13	11	18%	5%	60	-0.6

Rafael Flores

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps