Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | 14 | 10 | 56 | 207 | 51 | 13 | 0 | 71% | 4.0 | 16.8% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 0.0% | 1.76 | 2.68 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | 14 | 10 | 56 | 207 | 51 | 13 | 0 | 71% | 4.0 | 24.6% | 6.3% | 18.4% | 0.0% | 1.76 | 1.98 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Reds | 10 | 6 | 38 | 144 | 44 | 7 | 2 | 60% | 3.8 | 20.8% | 6.1% | 14.7% | 1.3% | 1.88 | 2.83 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Reds | 10 | 6 | 38 | 144 | 44 | 7 | 2 | 60% | 3.8 | 30.6% | 4.9% | 25.7% | 1.4% | 1.88 | 2.03 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 13 | 12 | 58 | 261 | 44 | 22 | 12 | 92% | 4.5 | 12.5% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 6.0% | 6.79 | 6.59 | -1.4 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | CIN | 6 | 6 | 27 | 113 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 4.5 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.5% | 7.1% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.21 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 85 | 374 | 67 | 30 | 15 | — | — | 18.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 5.98 | 5.84 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | CIN | 5 | 5 | 28 | 119 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 4.12 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | CIN | 3 | 3 | 14 | 59 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 4.7 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 4.12 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 14 | 58 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 4.6 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 3.74 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 38 | 200 | 844 | 174 | 58 | 29 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 3.74 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 37 | 28 | 153 | 612 | 97 | 51 | 17 | 76% | 4.1 | 15.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 3.71 | 4.38 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 37 | 200 | 800 | 127 | 67 | 23 | 76% | 4.1 | 15.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 3.71 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Stharlin Torres (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.21 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.12 | 21.3% | 14.2% | 28 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Hyun-il Choi R 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.4% | 5.2% | 3.2% | .293 | 4.37 | 19.1% | 14.1% | 106 | +0.40 | 3.97 | 455 | 83 |
| Peyton Remy R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.57 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 2.0% | .280 | 4.82 | 16.3% | 5.2% | 140 | +1.25 | 3.57 | 286 | 83 |
| Porter Hodge R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.18 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 2.9% | .336 | 3.40 | 24.3% | 10.5% | 249 | -0.78 | 2.98 | 349 | 82 |
| Peniel Otano R 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.06 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 1.2% | .307 | 4.65 | 14.6% | -1.0% | 176 | +1.59 | 3.06 | 232 | 81 |
| Adrian Ardines R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.08 | 18.5% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 114 | 81 |
| Yordi Rosario R 2025 · 3.53 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.53 | 21.3% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 163 | 81 |
| Dualvert Gutierrez R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.14 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 1.6% | .352 | 4.24 | 15.9% | 2.2% | 78 | +1.10 | 3.14 | 130 | 81 |
| Francys Peguero R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.38 | 17.0% | 4.6% | 2.1% | .305 | 4.98 | 15.6% | 9.0% | 116 | +1.60 | 2.85 | 293 | 81 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2029 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 81 |
| Logan Gragg R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.02 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .343 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 202 | +1.02 | 4.02 | 412 | 80 |
| Robert Colina R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.46 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .312 | 3.70 | 21.5% | 12.7% | 111 | -0.76 | 3.25 | 266 | 80 |
| Elieser Hernández R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.49 | 17.1% | 6.5% | 1.8% | .302 | 4.46 | 17.9% | 9.2% | 237 | +0.97 | 3.49 | 771 | 80 |
| Andrew Hoffmann R 2027 · 3.03 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.03 | 23.6% | 8.1% | 1.6% | .275 | 5.12 | 19.0% | 8.7% | 311 | +2.09 | 3.03 | 420 | 80 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 80 |
| Jesus Lugo R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.79 | 17.8% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .243 | 7.11 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 45 | +3.32 | 3.79 | 113 | 79 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.06 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .268 | 5.93 | 17.4% | 2.1% | 47 | +1.87 | 4.06 | 101 | 79 |
| José López R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.32 | 3.08 | 543 | 79 |
| Nick Fraze R 2029 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 79 |
| Jack Perkins R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.44 | 13.6% | 5.4% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.73 | 16.4% | 7.5% | 156 | +0.29 | 4.29 | 176 | 78 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.43 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .330 | 5.02 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 212 | +0.59 | 4.37 | 292 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 20.9% | 7.1% | 1.09 | 4.18 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Trevor Gott ('23) | 4 | 51 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 0.79 | 3.97 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |