Stharlin Torres

P Daytona Tortugas

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 182 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#283ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKCIN	14	10	56	1.76	1.98	24.6%	6.3%	—	K 16.8% · BB 7.9% · FIP 2.68
2025	19	ROKCIN	10	6	38	1.88	2.03	30.6%	4.9%	—	K 20.8% · BB 6.1% · FIP 2.97
2026	20	MIX2 levels	20	16	84	5.57	5.09	16.8%	8.6%	—	K 12.5% · BB 10.1% · FIP 6.20
2027PROJ	21	MLBCIN	—	—	0	5.10	5.10	14.7%	8.0%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBCIN	6	6	32	4.99	4.88	17.6%	7.5%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBCIN	9	9	48	4.78	4.65	19.4%	7.2%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$1M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 3.6, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 88%

CompsLucas Long (age 22) · Drew McDaniel (age 22) · Tyler McKay (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%14.7%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%6.7%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$35M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.6M
2036	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.1M
Totals		$10M		$10M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	10	56	207	51	13	0	71%	4.0	16.8%	7.9%	8.9%	0.0%	1.76	2.68	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	10	56	207	51	13	0	71%	4.0	16.8%	7.9%	8.9%	0.0%	1.76	2.68	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	14	10	56	207	51	13	0	71%	4.0	24.6%	6.3%	18.4%	0.0%	1.76	1.98	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	10	6	38	144	44	7	2	60%	3.8	20.8%	6.1%	14.7%	1.6%	1.88	2.97	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	10	6	38	144	44	7	2	60%	3.8	20.8%	6.1%	14.7%	1.6%	1.88	2.97	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	10	6	38	144	44	7	2	60%	3.8	30.6%	4.9%	25.7%	1.4%	1.88	2.03	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	16	84	370	62	32	15	80%	4.2	12.5%	10.1%	2.4%	5.2%	5.57	6.20	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	16	84	370	62	32	15	80%	4.2	12.5%	10.1%	2.4%	5.2%	5.57	6.20	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	16	84	370	62	32	15	80%	4.2	16.8%	8.6%	8.1%	4.1%	5.57	5.09	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.7%	8.0%	6.7%	3.4%	5.10	5.10	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	66	278	49	21	9	100%	5.5	17.6%	7.5%	10.1%	3.3%	4.85	4.74	+0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	66	278	54	20	9	100%	5.5	19.4%	7.2%	12.2%	3.2%	4.64	4.51	+0.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	66	278	57	19	9	100%	5.5	20.4%	7.0%	13.5%	3.2%	4.48	4.37	+0.8
2031	25	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	62	262	55	18	8	100%	5.6	21.0%	6.9%	14.2%	3.1%	4.37	4.30	+0.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	63	264	56	18	8	100%	6.3	21.3%	6.8%	14.5%	3.1%	4.31	4.27	+0.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	61	258	55	18	8	100%	6.1	21.3%	6.9%	14.4%	3.2%	4.31	4.31	+0.8
2034	28	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	58	245	52	17	8	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.0%	14.1%	3.3%	4.36	4.39	+0.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	59	251	57	16	9	100%	5.9	22.9%	6.5%	16.5%	3.4%	4.30	4.25	+0.8
2036	30	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	54	226	51	15	8	100%	5.9	22.6%	6.8%	15.8%	3.6%	4.38	4.43	+0.6
2037	31	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	47	200	44	14	8	100%	5.9	22.2%	7.1%	15.1%	3.9%	4.53	4.63	+0.4
2038	32	MLB MLE	CIN	7	7	41	174	38	13	7	100%	5.9	21.7%	7.5%	14.2%	4.1%	4.73	4.86	+0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	32	135	24	10	5	100%	5.3	17.6%	7.5%	10.1%	3.5%	4.99	4.88	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	48	203	39	15	7	100%	5.3	19.4%	7.2%	12.2%	3.5%	4.78	4.65	+0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	55	232	47	16	8	100%	5.5	20.4%	7.0%	13.5%	3.4%	4.62	4.51	+0.7
2031	25	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	55	232	49	16	8	100%	6.1	21.0%	6.9%	14.2%	3.4%	4.51	4.44	+0.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	57	241	51	16	8	100%	5.7	21.3%	6.8%	14.5%	3.4%	4.45	4.41	+0.8
2033	27	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	57	241	51	17	8	100%	5.7	21.3%	6.9%	14.4%	3.4%	4.45	4.45	+0.7
2034	28	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	54	228	48	16	8	100%	6.0	21.1%	7.0%	14.1%	3.6%	4.50	4.53	+0.6
2035	29	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	56	236	54	15	9	100%	6.2	22.9%	6.5%	16.5%	3.7%	4.45	4.40	+0.8
2036	30	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	51	215	49	15	8	100%	6.4	22.6%	6.8%	15.8%	3.9%	4.54	4.59	+0.6
2037	31	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	45	190	42	13	8	100%	5.6	22.2%	7.1%	15.1%	4.2%	4.70	4.80	+0.4
2038	32	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	39	165	36	12	7	100%	6.5	21.7%	7.5%	14.2%	4.4%	4.91	5.04	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		94	94	549	2320	491	162	85	100%	5.8	21.2%	7.0%	14.2%	3.7%	4.60	4.20	+7.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	179	59	31	100%	5.9	21.2%	7.0%	14.2%	3.7%	4.60	4.20	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		44	32	179	721	111	62	22	73%	4.1	15.4%	8.7%	6.7%	3.0%	3.58	4.54	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	36	200	807	124	70	24	73%	4.1	15.4%	8.7%	6.7%	3.0%	3.58	4.54	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADaytona Tortugas · 68 IPFIP 4.83 → 6.04 (+1.21)K% 17.0% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.00%	—	×0.740	12.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.67%	—	×1.180	9.05%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	5.20%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.83 → 6.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Dayton Dragons · 16 IPFIP 5.75 → 6.89 (+1.14)K% 15.7% → 12.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.71%	—	×0.770	12.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.86%	—	×1.150	14.79%
HR / BF /BF	4.29%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.36%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.75 → 6.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Reds · 38 IPFIP 1.90 → 2.97 (+1.07)K% 30.6% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.56%	—	×0.680	20.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.86%	—	×1.250	6.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.39%	÷1.252	×1.400	1.55%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 1.90 → 2.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Reds · 56 IPFIP 1.81 → 2.68 (+0.86)K% 24.6% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.64%	—	×0.680	16.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.28%	—	×1.250	7.85%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.136	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.81 → 2.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Stharlin Torres (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.54	19.1%	11.9%	198	-0.56	—	—	—
Lucas Long R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	14.5%	5.9%	4.0%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.1%	386	-0.90	3.42	441	88
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	88
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.10	275	87
Cale Lansville R 2024 · 3.90 FIP	21	SP-	3.90	15.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.325	5.07	12.8%	0.1%	38	+1.17	3.90	113	87
Hansel Paulino R 2017 · 4.38 FIP	21	SP-	4.38	15.8%	7.5%	3.0%	.302	4.45	18.5%	10.7%	18	+0.07	2.98	156	87
Tommy Parsons R 2018 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	12.6%	5.4%	4.2%	.302	5.28	18.0%	12.5%	234	+0.24	4.82	501	86
Abel Duarte R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	86
Andrew Cabezas R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP-	4.59	16.1%	9.4%	3.0%	.210	4.70	16.7%	6.9%	185	+0.11	4.16	300	85
Rafael Soriano R 2002 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP-	4.88	15.8%	7.4%	4.0%	.252	1.48	33.8%	28.3%	53	-3.40	1.48	620	85
Jeremiah Burke R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP-	4.88	11.9%	9.3%	2.9%	.330	3.78	15.7%	8.1%	34	-1.10	3.78	137	84
Adam Oller R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	21	SP-	4.86	13.3%	4.8%	4.2%	.322	4.53	17.4%	9.0%	160	-0.33	3.47	670	84
Nick Gardewine R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	21	SP-	4.24	14.4%	6.3%	2.8%	.334	3.18	24.5%	16.4%	104	-1.06	2.62	200	84
Shane Davis R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	21	SP-	5.21	17.3%	9.8%	4.2%	.313	4.19	20.9%	6.7%	55	-1.02	4.19	129	84
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.2%	6.4%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	84
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	84
Sergio Mitre R 2004 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	15.2%	7.8%	2.5%	.357	4.16	13.2%	6.5%	250	+0.00	3.55	602	83
Jack Perkins R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	21	SP-	4.34	13.6%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.91	16.4%	7.5%	156	+0.57	4.34	176	83
Carlos Felix R 2017 · 5.21 FIP	21	SP	5.21	12.9%	6.7%	4.3%	.374	4.92	8.7%	2.4%	64	-0.29	4.92	121	83
Rainiery Rodriguez R 2022 · 4.87 FIP	21	SP-	4.87	12.6%	6.5%	3.6%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	208	83
Logan Sendelbach R 2015 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP	5.31	11.4%	9.2%	3.7%	.300	4.58	12.8%	4.3%	297	-0.73	4.14	340	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	58	20.4%	7.1%	1.30	4.53
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*
Dan Wheeler ('12)	3.2	58	20.7%	7.2%	1.25	3.98
Justin Speier ('09)	3.4	56	20.4%	8.0%	1.44	4.11
Joel Peralta ('16)	3.2	54	23.0%	7.0%	1.32	4.03
Tom Niedenfuer ('81-'90, 8 WAR*)	3.3	65	23.1%*	8.1%*	1.19*	3.80*
Dennis Cook ('88-'02, 7 WAR*)	5.1	72	21.4%*	8.6%*	1.39*	4.02*