Stharlin Torres — OGILVIE

Stharlin Torres P Daytona Tortugas

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 182 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.1 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.03

FIP4.03

K%20.8%

BB%5.8%

K-BB%15.0%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$62M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5560

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$8M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$7M
2033	Arb-1	$4M	+1.4	$7M	+$4M
2034	Arb-2	$7M	+1.3	$6M	+$3M
2035	Arb-3	$9M	+1.1	$4M	+$1.0M
Totals		$23M		$40M	+$30M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	10	56	207	51	13	0	71%	4.0	16.8%	7.9%	8.9%	0.0%	1.76	2.68	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	10	56	207	51	13	0	71%	4.0	16.8%	7.9%	8.9%	0.0%	1.76	2.68	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	14	10	56	207	51	13	0	71%	4.0	24.6%	6.3%	18.4%	0.0%	1.76	1.98	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	10	6	38	144	44	7	2	60%	3.8	20.8%	6.1%	14.7%	1.6%	1.88	2.97	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	10	6	38	144	44	7	2	60%	3.8	20.8%	6.1%	14.7%	1.6%	1.88	2.97	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	10	6	38	144	44	7	2	60%	3.8	30.6%	4.9%	25.7%	1.4%	1.88	2.03	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	20	16	84	370	62	32	15	80%	4.2	12.5%	10.1%	2.4%	5.2%	5.57	6.20	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	20	16	84	370	62	32	15	80%	4.2	12.5%	10.1%	2.4%	5.2%	5.57	6.20	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	CIN	15	14	68	300	51	23	12	93%	4.6	17.0%	7.7%	9.3%	4.0%	5.93	4.83	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	CIN	5	2	16	70	11	9	3	40%	3.1	15.7%	12.9%	2.9%	4.3%	4.02	5.75	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	86	365	78	21	10	100%	5.4	21.4%	5.8%	15.6%	2.8%	3.99	3.95	+1.0
2028	22	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	91	383	86	21	11	100%	5.7	22.4%	5.5%	16.8%	2.8%	3.89	3.81	+1.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	CIN	17	17	94	397	92	21	11	100%	5.5	23.1%	5.3%	17.8%	2.7%	3.79	3.71	+1.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	CIN	17	17	96	407	96	21	11	100%	5.7	23.6%	5.2%	18.4%	2.7%	3.70	3.63	+1.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	CIN	17	17	98	413	99	21	11	100%	5.7	24.0%	5.1%	18.9%	2.7%	3.62	3.57	+1.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	98	413	100	21	11	100%	6.1	24.2%	5.0%	19.2%	2.7%	3.58	3.55	+1.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	96	406	98	21	11	100%	6.0	24.2%	5.1%	19.1%	2.7%	3.59	3.59	+1.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	93	394	95	21	11	100%	5.8	24.1%	5.2%	18.8%	2.8%	3.64	3.67	+1.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	89	376	90	21	11	100%	5.9	23.8%	5.5%	18.4%	3.0%	3.74	3.80	+1.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	84	354	83	20	11	100%	6.0	23.5%	5.8%	17.7%	3.2%	3.89	3.98	+0.9
2037	31	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	78	330	83	18	11	100%	6.0	25.1%	5.3%	19.8%	3.4%	3.90	3.91	+0.9
2038	32	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	72	305	75	17	11	100%	6.0	24.6%	5.7%	18.9%	3.7%	4.04	4.14	+0.6
2039	33	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	66	280	67	17	11	100%	6.0	24.1%	6.2%	18.0%	3.9%	4.25	4.39	+0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	42	177	38	10	5	100%	5.2	21.4%	5.8%	15.6%	3.0%	4.11	4.07	+0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	66	279	62	15	8	100%	5.5	22.4%	5.5%	16.8%	3.0%	4.01	3.93	+0.9
2029	23	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	79	334	77	18	10	100%	5.6	23.1%	5.3%	17.8%	3.0%	3.91	3.83	+1.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	CIN	15	15	86	363	86	19	11	100%	5.7	23.6%	5.2%	18.4%	2.9%	3.82	3.75	+1.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	CIN	15	15	90	380	91	19	11	100%	6.0	24.0%	5.1%	18.9%	2.9%	3.74	3.69	+1.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	CIN	15	15	91	384	93	19	11	100%	6.1	24.2%	5.0%	19.2%	2.9%	3.70	3.67	+1.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	CIN	15	15	91	384	93	20	11	100%	6.1	24.2%	5.1%	19.1%	3.0%	3.71	3.71	+1.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	CIN	15	15	89	376	90	20	12	100%	5.9	24.1%	5.2%	18.8%	3.1%	3.77	3.80	+1.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	85	359	86	20	12	100%	6.1	23.8%	5.5%	18.4%	3.2%	3.87	3.93	+1.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	CIN	13	13	80	338	79	19	12	100%	6.2	23.5%	5.8%	17.7%	3.5%	4.03	4.12	+0.9
2037	31	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	74	312	78	17	12	100%	6.2	25.1%	5.3%	19.8%	3.7%	4.05	4.06	+0.9
2038	32	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	69	291	72	17	12	100%	5.8	24.6%	5.7%	18.9%	4.0%	4.20	4.30	+0.6
2039	33	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	63	266	64	16	11	100%	6.3	24.1%	6.2%	18.0%	4.3%	4.42	4.56	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	172	1005	4242	1009	229	137	100%	5.8	23.8%	5.4%	18.4%	3.2%	3.92	3.55	+16.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	201	46	27	100%	5.9	23.8%	5.4%	18.4%	3.2%	3.92	3.55	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		44	32	179	721	111	62	22	73%	4.1	15.4%	8.7%	6.7%	3.0%	3.58	4.54	+15.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	36	200	807	124	70	24	73%	4.1	15.4%	8.7%	6.7%	3.0%	3.58	4.54	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Stharlin Torres (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.03	20.8%	5.8%	2.9%	—	3.82	22.3%	16.8%	271	-0.21	—	—	—
Gilberto Batista R 2023 · 3.63 FIP	18	SP-	3.63	22.8%	6.2%	3.0%	.323	5.53	15.1%	5.0%	210	+1.90	3.63	250	85
Francys Peguero R 2016 · 3.38 FIP	20	SP-	3.38	17.0%	4.6%	2.1%	.305	4.93	15.6%	9.0%	116	+1.55	2.85	293	85
Hyun-il Choi R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	19	SP-	3.97	18.4%	5.2%	3.2%	.293	4.26	19.1%	14.1%	106	+0.29	3.97	455	84
Richard Guasch R 2018 · 2.94 FIP	20	SP-	2.94	20.0%	5.4%	1.5%	.267	4.67	21.0%	5.2%	134	+1.73	2.94	316	84
Yordi Rosario R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	19	SP-	3.53	21.3%	6.7%	2.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	163	81
Peyton Remy R 2018 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP-	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.75	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.18	3.57	286	80
David Lorduy R 2023 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP-	4.01	20.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.267	4.79	17.4%	7.1%	184	+0.78	3.38	269	80
Angel Jimenez R 2023 · 3.31 FIP	20	SP	3.31	23.3%	5.1%	2.8%	.368	4.43	21.1%	10.0%	144	+1.12	3.24	223	80
Dualvert Gutierrez R 2021 · 3.22 FIP	20	SP-	3.22	23.5%	9.1%	1.7%	.352	4.29	15.9%	2.2%	78	+1.07	3.22	130	80
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	80
Elieser Hernández R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	20	SP-	3.52	17.1%	6.5%	1.9%	.302	4.53	17.9%	9.2%	237	+1.01	3.52	787	79
Andrew Sopko R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	20	SP-	3.76	17.4%	4.1%	2.9%	.282	3.97	16.6%	8.8%	353	+0.21	3.62	479	79
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.40	24.2%	10.6%	249	-0.80	2.97	349	78
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	78
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	78
Engert Garcia R 2023 · 3.13 FIP	23	SP-	3.13	16.9%	5.5%	1.4%	.270	4.81	14.9%	-5.3%	79	+1.68	3.13	125	77
Peniel Otano R 2021 · 3.06 FIP	20	SP	3.06	19.3%	7.4%	1.2%	.307	4.67	14.6%	-1.0%	176	+1.61	3.06	232	77
Andrew Hoffmann R 2021 · 3.17 FIP	21	SP	3.17	23.6%	8.1%	1.9%	.275	4.91	18.6%	8.8%	311	+1.74	3.17	421	77
Joelvis Del Rosario R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	20	SP-	3.76	22.5%	8.0%	2.8%	.315	4.97	14.6%	6.0%	197	+1.21	3.13	286	77
Jordan Johnson R 2015 · 2.93 FIP	21	SP	2.93	21.2%	5.7%	1.6%	.347	5.00	15.3%	5.2%	350	+2.07	2.93	443	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.8	83	23.6%	5.4%	1.15	3.80
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59