Victor Trejo

P FCL Pirates

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKDSL Pirates B…	15	19	9.47	6.21	14.6%	16.7%	—	K 9.9% · BB 20.8% · FIP 7.30
2025	19	ROKDSL Pirates G…	18	33	1.65	2.58	21.1%	9.8%	—	K 14.3% · BB 12.2% · FIP 3.44
2026	20	MIX3 levels	28	39	5.95	5.39	15.3%	12.5%	—	K 10.8% · BB 14.6% · FIP 6.62
2027PROJ	21	MLBPIT	20	21	5.46	5.46	17.1%	13.5%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBPIT	17	18	5.16	5.03	19.2%	11.9%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 99%

CompsTyler Smith (age 22) · Michael Perez (age 21) · Zack Hess (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.46

FIP5.46

K%17.1%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%3.6%

Proj IP21

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	15	0	19	96	14	16	3	0%	1.3	9.9%	20.8%	-10.9%	4.4%	9.47	7.30	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	15	0	19	96	14	16	3	0%	1.3	9.9%	20.8%	-10.9%	4.4%	9.47	7.30	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Black	15	0	19	96	14	16	3	0%	1.3	14.6%	16.7%	-2.1%	3.1%	9.47	6.21	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	18	0	33	133	28	13	0	0%	1.8	14.3%	12.2%	2.1%	0.0%	1.65	3.44	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	18	0	33	133	28	13	0	0%	1.8	14.3%	12.2%	2.1%	0.0%	1.65	3.44	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	18	0	33	133	28	13	0	0%	1.8	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	0.0%	1.65	2.58	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	39	176	27	22	6	0%	1.4	10.8%	14.6%	-3.8%	4.7%	5.95	6.62	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	39	176	27	22	6	0%	1.4	10.8%	14.6%	-3.8%	4.7%	5.95	6.62	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	0	39	176	27	22	6	0%	1.4	15.3%	12.5%	2.8%	3.4%	5.95	5.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	PIT	20	0	21	89	15	12	3	0%	1.1	17.1%	13.5%	3.6%	3.1%	5.46	5.46	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	PIT	35	0	37	157	30	19	5	0%	1.1	19.2%	11.9%	7.3%	3.0%	5.16	5.03	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	PIT	17	0	18	76	15	9	2	0%	1.1	19.2%	11.9%	7.3%	3.0%	5.16	5.03	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	77	15	9	2	0%	1.1	19.2%	11.9%	7.3%	3.0%	5.16	4.65	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	98	22	0%	1.1	19.2%	11.9%	7.3%	3.0%	5.16	4.65	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		61	0	91	405	48	62	12	0%	1.5	11.8%	15.3%	-3.5%	3.1%	5.14	5.74	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	0	200	890	105	136	27	0%	1.5	11.8%	15.3%	-3.5%	3.1%	5.14	5.74	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Trejo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.46	17.1%	13.5%	3.1%	—	5.03	19.2%	7.3%	37	-0.43	—	—	—
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	92
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	90
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	89
Randy Messenger R 2005 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	16.3%	12.9%	2.8%	.281	3.93	13.8%	7.1%	137	-0.97	3.56	174	89
Austin Mason R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	21	SU	4.41	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.289	4.06	16.2%	6.5%	151	-0.35	3.60	179	89
Devon Fisher R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	16.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.333	5.76	15.1%	0.9%	88	+1.37	4.39	102	88
Carson Hobbs R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	22	SU	5.63	18.9%	13.6%	4.4%	.303	3.97	22.0%	10.4%	118	-1.66	3.54	143	88
Nick Kuzia R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	21	SU	5.18	16.5%	15.2%	2.8%	.361	5.35	17.6%	6.6%	60	+0.17	4.54	231	88
Brooks Crawford R 2019 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	14.9%	13.7%	2.2%	.262	3.56	22.1%	14.5%	103	-1.22	2.50	296	88
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	88
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	88
Jake Bird R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	22	SU	4.59	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.254	3.65	16.1%	4.9%	156	-0.94	3.06	525	88
Jason Ruffcorn R 2021 · 4.74 FIP	23	SU	4.74	16.6%	14.2%	2.3%	.297	4.69	17.6%	4.2%	136	-0.05	4.01	283	87
Jason García R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	22	SU	4.57	16.8%	12.5%	2.4%	.241	4.37	13.2%	1.2%	218	-0.20	4.16	356	87
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	87
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	87
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	87
Hobie Harris R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	22	SU	4.28	18.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.239	3.36	21.2%	12.0%	144	-0.92	3.31	476	87
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	86
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	18.5%	12.5%	1.19	5.27
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68