Josiah Hartshorn

RF South Bend Cubs

Age 20 S/L 6'0" / 220 lbs A+ HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #49MiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP52ETA2028FG ETA2029MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	19	A+CHC	370	.297/.416/.560	18	12	132	—	.268/.363/.484
2026	19	ACHC	177	.273/.426/.460	5	4	107	—	.236/.358/.385
2027PROJ4% MLB	20	MLBCHC	14	.241/.336/.420	0	0	113	0.0
2028PROJ50% MLB	21	MLBCHC	292	.245/.341/.430	10	5	117	0.9
2029PROJ69% MLB	22	MLBCHC	420	.248/.343/.438	15	8	120	1.4

Next 3 projected WAR 2.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$6M2033Arb-2$9M2034Arb-3$13M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

ISO93

wOBA92

wRC+91

Z-Con%87

Chase%84

Whiff%79

Career WAR10 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 50, comp-based) · star 30% · didn't stick 34%

CompsJaff Decker (age 21) · Edgar Quero (age 20) · Adael Amador (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†113

AVG/OBP/SLG.241 / .336 / .420

PA14

HR0

K%21

BB%14

BABIP294

ISO83

MLB%4%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$61M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 54

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER54

scouting grade only

EYE65

scouting grade only

SPEED44

scouting grade only

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$9M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$11M	+$10M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.8	$11M	+$10M
2032	Arb-1	$6M	+1.9	$10M	+$7M
2033	Arb-2	$9M	+1.9	$10M	+$5M
2034	Arb-3	$13M	+1.8	$8M	+$2M
Totals		$31M		$60M	+$43M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	19	AA	Knoxville Smokies	—	15	11	1	0	0	0	3	3	0	1	0	91	286	91	377		111	20	20	200	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	370	300	89	17	4	18	54	79	7	12	3	297	416	560	976	263	335	21	15	416	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	177	139	38	9	1	5	34	27	3	4	2	273	426	460	887	187	306	15	19	397	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	19	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	15	12	1	0	0	0	2	4	0	1	0	83	214	83	298		109	27	13	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	370	314	84	15	4	15	40	100	7	12	3	268	363	484	847	217	315	27	11	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	177	148	35	8	1	4	25	37	3	4	2	236	358	385	743	149	277	21	14	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	562	475	121	23	5	20	66	141	10	17	5	255	358	451	808	196	311	25	12	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	562	450	128	26	5	23	91	109	10	17	5	284	416	518	933	233	319	19	16	404	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	562	481	121	23	5	20	66	141	10	17	5	252	358	445	802	193	298	25	12	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	19	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	562	481	121	23	5	20	66	141	10	17	5	252	358	445	802	193	298	25	12	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	CHC	4%	648	562	135	25	4	23	72	159	9	12	3	239	335	419	755	180	290	25	11	336	113	+10	+1	-3	-7	+14	1.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	20	MLB CTX	CHC	4%	14	12	3	1	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	241	336	420	756	179	294	21	14	336	113	+0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	CHC	50%	581	503	122	22	3	22	65	139	8	11	3	244	340	430	770	187	291	24	11	342	117	+12	+1	-2	-6	+13	1.7
2029	22	MLB MLE	CHC	69%	609	528	130	24	4	23	68	143	8	11	3	247	342	438	780	191	291	23	11	346	120	+15	+1	-2	-7	+13	2.0
2030	23	MLB MLE	CHC	77%	621	539	134	24	4	24	69	143	8	11	3	249	344	443	786	194	292	23	11	348	122	+16	+1	-2	-7	+13	2.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	CHC	78%	627	544	137	25	4	25	70	143	8	11	3	250	344	445	789	195	293	23	11	349	122	+17	+1	-2	-7	+14	2.3
2032	25	MLB MLE	CHC	79%	634	551	138	25	4	25	70	144	8	10	3	251	344	445	789	194	293	23	11	349	122	+17	+1	-1	-7	+14	2.4
2033	26	MLB MLE	CHC	79%	639	555	139	25	4	25	71	146	8	10	3	250	344	444	788	194	293	23	11	349	122	+17	+1	-1	-7	+14	2.4
2034	27	MLB MLE	CHC	78%	637	553	138	25	4	25	71	146	8	10	3	249	343	442	784	192	292	23	11	347	121	+16	+1	-1	-7	+14	2.3
2035	28	MLB MLE	CHC	77%	631	548	135	25	3	24	70	146	8	8	2	247	341	437	777	189	291	23	11	344	119	+14	+1	-2	-7	+14	2.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	CHC	75%	621	540	132	24	3	23	68	145	8	7	2	245	338	430	768	185	289	23	11	341	117	+12	+1	-3	-7	+13	1.7
2037	30	MLB MLE	CHC	74%	609	530	128	23	3	22	67	145	7	7	3	241	334	422	756	180	287	24	11	336	113	+10	+0	-3	-7	+13	1.4
2038	31	MLB MLE	CHC	73%	595	519	123	22	3	21	64	144	7	5	4	237	329	411	741	174	284	24	11	330	109	+7	-1	-4	-6	+13	0.9
2039	32	MLB MLE	CHC	72%	576	503	117	21	3	19	62	142	6	4	15	231	323	398	721	167	280	25	11	322	104	+3	-5	-5	-6	+12	-0.1
2040	33	MLB MLE	CHC	79%	547	478	107	19	2	17	58	138	6	3	61	224	315	382	697	157	274	25	11	312	98	-2	-24	-5	-6	+12	-2.5
2028	21	MLB CTX	CHC	50%	292	253	62	12	2	10	33	70	4	5	1	245	341	430	771	185	294	24	11	342	117	+6	+1	-1	-3	+6	0.9
2029	22	MLB CTX	CHC	69%	420	364	90	17	3	15	47	98	6	8	2	248	343	438	781	190	295	23	11	346	120	+10	+1	-2	-4	+9	1.4
2030	23	MLB CTX	CHC	77%	476	414	103	19	3	18	53	110	6	8	2	250	345	442	787	192	295	23	11	348	122	+12	+1	-1	-5	+10	1.7
2031	24	MLB CTX	CHC	78%	489	425	106	20	3	18	54	112	7	8	2	251	345	445	790	193	296	23	11	349	122	+13	+1	-1	-5	+11	1.8
2032	25	MLB CTX	CHC	79%	499	434	108	20	3	19	55	114	7	8	2	252	345	444	789	193	296	23	11	349	122	+13	+1	-1	-5	+11	1.9
2033	26	MLB CTX	CHC	79%	505	437	110	21	3	19	56	115	7	8	2	251	345	444	789	193	296	23	11	349	122	+13	+1	-1	-5	+11	1.9
2034	27	MLB CTX	CHC	78%	494	430	107	20	3	18	55	113	6	7	2	250	344	441	785	191	295	23	11	347	121	+12	+1	-1	-5	+11	1.8
2035	28	MLB CTX	CHC	77%	485	422	105	20	3	18	54	112	6	6	2	248	342	436	778	188	294	23	11	345	119	+11	+0	-1	-5	+11	1.6
2036	29	MLB CTX	CHC	75%	464	404	100	19	3	17	51	109	6	5	2	246	339	429	768	184	292	23	11	341	117	+9	+0	-2	-5	+10	1.3
2037	30	MLB CTX	CHC	74%	448	391	96	18	3	16	49	106	5	5	2	242	335	421	756	179	290	24	11	336	113	+7	+0	-2	-5	+10	1.0
2038	31	MLB CTX	CHC	73%	433	378	90	17	2	15	47	104	5	4	3	238	330	411	741	173	287	24	11	330	109	+5	-0	-3	-5	+9	0.6
2039	32	MLB CTX	CHC	72%	417	364	85	15	2	14	45	103	5	3	11	232	324	397	721	165	283	25	11	322	104	+2	-4	-3	-4	+9	-0.1
2040	33	MLB CTX	CHC	79%	430	378	85	15	2	13	45	108	4	2	48	225	316	381	697	156	277	25	10	313	98	-1	-19	-4	-5	+9	-2.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5852	5094	1247	233	35	210	644	1374	74	77	81	245	338	428	766	183	293	23	11	340	116	+113	-17	-25	-63	+127	13.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	566	138	26	4	23	72	153	8	9	9	244	338	426	764	182	293	24	11	340	116	+13	-2	-3	-7	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	8809	7643	1867	339	51	326	975	2084	112	131	115	244	338	430	768	186	292	24	11	340	116	+158	-21	-35	-88	+179	19.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	564	138	25	4	24	72	154	8	10	8	245	339	431	769	186	292	24	11	340	116	+12	-2	-3	-7	+14	1.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ron Gant'87-'03 * career totals — 15 seasons, 7,320 PA	11.0	7,320	321	243	249*	328*	478*	-50	-5	30.8	27.6
/162	664	29	22	-4.6	-0.5	2.8	pk7: 24
#2Nick Swisherlast yr '15 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,308 PA	9.5	6,308	245	13	249	351	447	-62	-56	24.5	24.4
/162	664	26	1	-6.5	-5.9	2.6	pk7: 24
#3Al Smith'53-'64 * career totals — 12 seasons, 6,172 PA	9.3	6,172	164	67	268*	348*	450*	-39	-34	23.4	21.8
/162	664	18	7	-4.2	-3.6	2.5	pk7: 20
#4Jeromy Burnitz'93-'06 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,579 PA	9.9	6,579	315	74	243*	330*	466*	-62	-31	22.9	21.7
/162	664	32	7	-6.3	-3.1	2.3	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	8.8	5,866	218	79	245	335	431	-35	-18	22.4	19.7
/162	664	25	9	-4.0	-2.1	2.5	pk7: 17
#5Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	9.9	6,603	318	65	245	314	469	-71	-54	19.6	19.5
/162	664	32	7	-7.1	-5.4	2.0	pk7: 19
#6Brad Wilkersonlast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	122	53	247	350	440	-35	-8	15.8	16.3
/162	664	22	9	-6.2	-1.4	2.8	pk7: 17

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Josiah Hartshorn (OGILVIE)	20	42→50	48→54	47→44	65	237/333/416	178	290	11	6	25%	11%	113	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jaff Decker 2011 · A	21	48→52	55	45→55	52	242/334/429	186	315	22	7	29%	11%	116	+2.5	215/301/366	151	287	17	9	29%	10%	90	+0.6	231/308/347	116	299	10	13	24%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Edgar Quero 2023 · A	20	50→58	50	47→40	51	245/343/412	167	321	17	8	27%	10%	116	+2.5	248/329/371	123	310	12	3	22%	9%	101	+1.4	253/330/357	104	310	11	1	21%	9%	97	+0.8
✕Adael Amador 2024 · AA	21	52→56	48→50	49→55	54	257/333/399	142	291	15	16	17%	9%	109	+2.0	235/310/364	129	275	14	21	19%	9%	92	+0.7	231/310/357	126	266	13	22	18%	9%	88	+0.4
●Andy Pages 2022 · A	21	42→52	59→60	45→50	47	225/317/433	209	295	27	6	32%	10%	112	+2.2	225/305/404	179	293	21	7	29%	8%	100	+1.3	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
●Roman Anthony 2024 · AA	20	48→57	47→50	49→50	50	230/314/369	139	322	13	11	31%	10%	95	+0.9	254/340/410	156	347	15	12	28%	11%	114	+2.3	261/352/422	161	350	16	11	27%	12%	119	+2.1
●Colby Rasmus 2008 · AA	21	45→54	53→65	54→50	47	233/303/412	180	281	20	15	25%	8%	101	+1.4	238/304/402	164	285	19	12	23%	8%	99	+1.2	243/309/466	223	315	29	3	32%	8%	116	+1.9
●Gleyber Torres 2019 · MLB	22	51→55	53→60	46→50	47	259/324/431	172	322	20	10	26%	8%	113	+2.3	262/329/447	185	304	24	9	22%	9%	118	+2.7	259/345/399	140	294	17	6	17%	11%	114	+2.6
●Miguel Sanó 2013 · A	20	40→50	54→70	46→45	43	211/285/395	184	296	22	5	35%	9%	91	+0.6	230/313/454	224	319	28	7	35%	10%	114	+2.4	244/332/473	229	340	30	2	35%	11%	126	+2.9
✕George Valera 2022 · AA	21	44→43	52→50	49→45	52	221/322/385	164	301	20	12	32%	12%	102	+1.5	215/299/365	150	300	18	6	32%	10%	88	+0.5	222/290/363	141	290	16	5	28%	8%	82	+0.0
●Triston Casas 2022 · AAA	22	47→49	51→60	48→40	49	236/311/401	164	296	19	8	26%	9%	101	+1.4	242/332/433	191	299	23	4	26%	12%	116	+2.5	238/335/441	203	292	26	0	27%	12%	120	+1.9
●Tyler Soderstrom 2022 · A	20	51→52	50→60	47→40	42	249/309/414	165	347	17	6	32%	7%	103	+1.5	227/279/411	184	296	24	2	31%	6%	92	+0.7	249/327/456	208	287	26	4	23%	9%	120	+2.2
●Wil Myers 2011 · A	20	52→54	48→60	47→55	50	255/328/404	148	325	14	8	25%	9%	107	+1.9	247/312/409	162	319	18	8	27%	8%	103	+1.5	251/327/458	207	310	25	22	26%	10%	120	+2.7
●Derek Norris 2010 · A	21	45→55	52→55	45→50	49	228/310/392	164	299	20	5	30%	10%	99	+1.3	209/309/374	165	282	20	9	31%	12%	95	+1.0	257/333/410	152	314	16	5	22%	9%	112	+1.6
✕Eric Arce 2012 · A	20	41	55→60	47→30	47	214/312/402	188	287	23	4	32%	10%	103	+1.5	198/287/352	154	334	18	4	42%	10%	82	-0.0	140/248/285	145	254	20	0	49%	11%	51	-0.6
●Wander Franco 2022 · MLB	21	56→60	49→55	49→55	52	276/331/440	164	297	14	9	13%	7%	117	+2.6	272/329/439	167	293	16	20	13%	8%	116	+2.5	276/335/445	169	294	16	27	12%	8%	120	+2.0
●Corey Patterson 2001 · MLB	21	45→54	53→55	47→60	46	233/302/403	170	288	21	12	27%	8%	99	+1.2	245/287/393	148	297	17	16	23%	4%	90	+0.6	263/300/434	170	320	18	24	23%	4%	105	+1.6
●Junior Caminero 2024 · MLB	21	51→55	55→65	47→45	43	265/312/442	176	315	24	7	24%	6%	111	+2.1	259/309/471	212	287	30	6	22%	6%	117	+2.6	256/314/491	234	268	35	4	20%	7%	124	+3.1
●Sean Rodríguez 2007 · AA	22	47→51	52→60	48→50	46	240/313/415	174	307	20	12	28%	8%	105	+1.7	236/309/417	181	299	21	10	28%	7%	105	+1.7	244/318/452	208	301	26	12	27%	7%	113	+1.7
★Justin Upton 2009 · MLB	21	49→59	52→65	47→55	48	245/317/421	176	315	18	9	27%	9%	107	+1.9	271/342/469	198	336	22	16	25%	9%	128	+3.3	276/350/481	205	329	24	19	23%	9%	135	+3.9
●Spencer Torkelson 2022 · AAA	22	43→45	57→60	45→40	51	229/318/434	206	277	25	6	27%	10%	112	+2.2	220/302/392	172	276	20	3	27%	10%	96	+1.0	227/317/425	198	291	25	1	30%	10%	110	+2.2

Josiah Hartshorn

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps