Ediel Rivera — OGILVIE

Ediel RiveraC Tampa Tarpons

Age 20 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION233 act + 23 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†48

AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .261 / .238

PA23

HR0

K%35

BB%4

BABIP270

ISO48

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	19	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	66	55	9	2	0	0	5	20	6	6	1	164	303	200	503	36	257	30	8	255	58	-3	+1	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	19	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	185	153	35	10	1	2	17	49	12	12	4	229	352	346	698	118	314	26	9	320	103	+1	+1	—	—	+4	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	19	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	66	56	6	1	0	0	4	28	6	6	1	107	242	125	367	18	217	42	6	191	15	-7	+1	—	—	+1	-0.5
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	185	159	23	6	1	1	11	70	12	12	4	145	253	214	467	69	224	38	6	202	23	-17	+1	—	—	+4	-1.2
2025	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	251	216	30	8	1	1	14	99	18	18	5	139	250	199	449	60	244	39	6	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	251	208	44	12	1	2	22	69	18	18	5	212	339	308	646	96	300	27	9	303	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	251	217	30	8	1	1	14	99	18	18	5	138	250	198	448	60	222	39	6	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	251	217	30	8	1	1	14	99	18	18	5	138	250	198	448	60	222	39	6	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A MLE	NYY	—	233	203	30	4	0	3	17	101	11	6	1	148	251	212	463	64	267	43	7	215	32	-19	+1	+0	+4	+5	-0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A RAW	NYY	—	233	198	39	5	0	4	22	71	11	6	1	197	312	283	595	86	280	30	9	280	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	A MLE	NYY	0%	23	21	4	1	0	0	1	8	1	1	0	190	261	238	499	48	269	35	4	239	48	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	20	A MLE	NYY	—	256	224	34	5	0	3	18	109	12	7	1	152	252	214	466	62	272	43	7	217	33	-20	+1	+0	+5	+6	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	NYY	34%	312	278	53	10	1	5	21	101	10	6	1	191	272	288	560	97	273	32	7	254	58	-16	+1	+0	+6	+7	-0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	NYY	48%	410	366	71	13	2	7	28	129	13	7	2	194	275	298	573	104	275	31	7	264	65	-17	+1	+0	+7	+9	-0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	NYY	54%	474	423	85	16	2	9	34	146	14	8	2	201	282	312	594	111	277	31	7	270	69	-18	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	515	458	92	17	2	10	37	157	15	9	2	201	282	312	595	111	278	30	7	273	71	-18	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	520	462	94	17	2	11	38	158	15	9	2	203	285	320	606	117	278	30	7	275	72	-17	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	NYY	60%	520	462	94	17	2	11	38	158	15	9	2	203	285	320	606	117	278	30	7	275	72	-17	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	NYY	62%	520	462	94	17	2	11	38	158	15	9	2	203	285	320	606	117	278	30	7	275	72	-17	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	NYY	63%	520	461	93	17	2	11	39	159	15	9	2	202	285	319	604	117	277	31	8	274	72	-18	+1	-1	+9	+11	0.3
2035	29	MLB MLE	NYY	64%	520	461	92	17	2	10	39	160	15	8	2	200	283	310	594	111	276	31	8	272	70	-18	+1	-1	+9	+11	0.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	520	461	92	17	2	10	39	161	15	7	2	200	283	310	594	111	275	31	8	269	68	-20	+1	-2	+9	+11	-0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	NYY	34%	107	96	18	3	0	2	7	35	3	2	0	188	264	281	545	94	274	33	7	233	58	-5	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	NYY	48%	199	177	36	7	1	4	14	63	6	4	1	203	284	322	606	119	277	32	7	244	65	-8	+0	+0	+4	+4	-0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	NYY	54%	257	229	46	9	1	5	18	79	8	5	1	201	282	314	597	114	279	31	7	252	69	-10	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	285	255	52	10	1	6	20	87	8	5	1	204	283	322	604	118	280	31	7	256	71	-10	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	291	259	53	10	1	6	21	88	9	5	1	205	287	320	608	116	280	30	7	257	72	-10	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	NYY	60%	312	277	57	11	1	7	23	95	9	6	1	206	288	329	617	123	280	30	7	257	72	-10	+1	+0	+6	+7	0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	NYY	62%	322	286	58	11	1	7	24	98	9	6	1	203	285	322	607	119	279	30	7	257	72	-11	+1	+0	+6	+7	0.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	NYY	63%	328	291	59	11	1	7	24	100	10	6	1	203	286	320	606	117	279	30	7	256	72	-11	+1	-0	+6	+7	0.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	NYY	64%	331	293	59	11	1	7	25	102	10	5	1	201	287	317	604	116	278	31	8	254	70	-12	+1	-1	+6	+7	0.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	338	300	60	11	1	7	25	105	10	5	1	200	284	313	597	113	276	31	7	251	68	-13	+1	-1	+6	+7	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2770	2463	498	94	9	58	201	852	82	49	9	202	284	318	603	116	281	31	7	253	67	-99	+6	-3	+49	+60	1.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	117	22	2	14	47	200	19	11	2	202	284	320	604	118	280	31	7	253	67	-23	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	5105	4531	894	167	20	96	366	1594	161	100	24	197	281	307	587	109	278	31	7	267	67	-177	+9	-4	+87	+105	2.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	114	21	3	12	47	203	20	13	3	198	281	307	588	109	279	31	7	267	67	-24	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.5	3,010	57	52	200	279	310	+54	+28	3.1	3.0
/162	664	13	11	+11.9	+6.2	0.7	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ediel Rivera (OGILVIE)	20	30	30	55	35	175/257/249	73	269	2	5	34%	6%	48	-1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A	20	38	40	51→50	39	187/249/281	94	269	8	13	32%	6%	51	-2.3	196/261/274	78	315	7	10	37%	7%	53	-2.1	188/258/263	75	295	9	10	37%	7%	47	-1.2
✕Frankeny Fernandez 2017 · A	20	36	38→40	53→60	42	174/248/255	81	275	5	19	36%	8%	45	-2.7	193/258/268	75	281	5	10	31%	7%	51	-2.3	172/238/215	43	239	3	6	27%	7%	30	-1.1
✕Omar Hernandez 2022 · A	20	35	38→30	51→55	36	173/217/249	76	254	5	6	33%	5%	30	-3.8	185/234/249	64	265	4	16	30%	5%	36	-3.3	209/245/262	53	279	4	21	26%	4%	40	-1.5
✕Gilbert Gomez 2012 · A	20	40→37	40	52→50	40	195/254/288	93	274	7	14	31%	6%	53	-2.1	201/272/277	76	304	4	8	32%	8%	58	-1.7	190/273/260	70	294	3	7	33%	10%	51	-1.4
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→40	47→65	40	207/259/281	74	295	5	11	30%	6%	53	-2.1	191/260/268	77	304	6	15	36%	7%	51	-2.2	188/266/266	78	286	5	32	33%	7%	52	-0.9
✕Victor Tademo 2018 · A	19	39	37→40	52→55	37	189/240/263	74	277	4	14	32%	5%	42	-2.9	195/241/256	61	285	3	7	31%	5%	40	-3.0	181/217/201	20	252	0	3	27%	4%	17	-1.4
✕Mikey Edie 2017 · A	20	43	34→30	50	36	201/262/254	53	296	2	14	31%	4%	49	-2.4	216/267/279	63	314	3	13	30%	4%	55	-1.9	200/250/260	60	280	3	7	28%	3%	41	-1.5
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	39→29	38→45	51→50	41	185/255/266	81	281	5	13	34%	7%	49	-2.4	210/275/314	104	329	8	15	36%	7%	68	-1.0	190/253/306	116	287	12	16	36%	6%	55	-0.9
✕Jose Bellorin 2011 · A	20	42	39→40	47→50	42	203/257/285	81	265	6	10	25%	6%	53	-2.1	223/280/308	85	271	6	9	19%	6%	68	-1.0	239/295/316	78	276	6	10	15%	6%	73	-0.3
✕Glenn Santiago 2021 · A	20	43	37→40	55→45	46	200/274/277	78	262	3	13	23%	7%	59	-1.6	205/269/296	91	280	7	9	28%	7%	61	-1.5	182/247/261	79	270	7	8	33%	7%	43	-1.1
✕Gilberto Vizcarra 2019 · A	20	35	38→45	47→40	46	171/243/241	71	215	6	3	23%	7%	40	-3.1	206/263/285	79	260	5	4	22%	6%	56	-1.9	227/270/319	92	275	7	1	19%	4%	65	-0.4
✕Luis Sanchez 2007 · A	20	41	36→30	50→40	41	195/252/261	66	275	4	7	29%	6%	47	-2.6	192/257/246	54	274	2	4	28%	8%	45	-2.7	190/246/233	43	263	1	2	26%	7%	36	-1.6
✕Janelfry Zorrilla 2011 · A	20	41	40→45	50	42	202/257/291	89	262	7	13	26%	6%	55	-2.0	224/279/352	128	280	13	10	24%	6%	78	-0.3	225/276/353	127	282	14	8	25%	5%	75	-0.2
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	39	38→30	48→45	42	188/251/270	82	260	6	7	29%	6%	49	-2.4	199/275/282	83	287	6	6	30%	8%	61	-1.5	182/254/249	67	248	6	11	27%	8%	43	-0.7
✕Yeldrys Molina 2009 · A	20	43	38→40	48→50	44	206/265/287	82	281	4	9	27%	7%	57	-1.8	194/252/272	78	285	4	8	31%	7%	49	-2.4	139/198/200	60	203	0	9	29%	6%	11	-1.2
✕Jesus Castillo 2022 · A	19	42→41	34→30	51→50	42	199/262/249	50	277	2	16	28%	6%	47	-2.5	210/309/255	45	289	1	19	25%	11%	68	-1.0	195/321/224	30	275	1	24	25%	14%	65	-0.5
✕Richard Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	39	36→30	48→50	45	186/255/247	61	260	3	12	28%	8%	45	-2.7	210/266/251	41	261	1	14	19%	7%	49	-2.4	233/291/254	20	278	0	16	15%	7%	56	-0.6
✕Fabian Pertuz 2021 · A	20	46→34	38→40	52→55	41	218/270/299	81	295	4	15	26%	5%	61	-1.5	186/232/269	83	289	7	9	36%	5%	40	-3.0	164/212/245	80	249	7	12	36%	4%	25	-2.3
✕Alfredo González 2013 · A	21	39	35→30	51→45	39	186/228/249	63	238	2	10	22%	4%	34	-3.5	215/275/289	74	289	5	9	25%	7%	61	-1.5	232/294/283	50	313	3	6	25%	7%	64	-0.5
✕Neyfy Castillo 2021 · A	20	40→31	37→45	54→55	38	188/244/263	75	289	4	11	34%	6%	44	-2.8	180/251/307	127	326	15	16	46%	7%	58	-1.7	166/238/291	125	290	16	19	46%	7%	47	-1.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps