Ediel Rivera — OGILVIE

Ediel RiveraC Tampa Tarpons

Age 20 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs A HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION189 act + 126 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†27

AVG/OBP/SLG.168 / .248 / .230

PA126

HR1

K%36

BB%6

BABIP265

ISO62

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	19	ROK	2 teams	—	251	215	27	7	1	0	15	99	18	18	5	126	242	167	409	42	227	39	6	192	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	2 teams	—	251	208	44	12	1	2	22	69	18	18	5	212	339	308	646	96	300	27	9	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A	NYY	—	189	167	19	3	0	1	12	88	8	5	1	114	209	150	358	36	225	47	6	181	-3	-22	+1	+0	+3	+5	-1.3
YTD	20	A	NYY	—	189	163	27	4	0	2	16	62	8	5	1	166	273	227	500	61	248	33	8	240	42	-12	+1	+0	+3	+5	-0.3
ROS	20	A	NYY	0%	126	113	19	4	0	1	8	45	4	3	1	168	248	230	478	62	258	36	6	220	27	-10	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.4
ROS	20	MLB	NYY	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		259	—	—	199	10	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	20	A	NYY	—	189	168	19	3	0	1	12	88	8	5	1	113	209	149	357	36	222	47	6	181	-3	-22	+1	+0	+3	+5	-1.3
TOT	20	A	NYY	—	315	280	38	7	0	2	20	133	12	8	2	136	224	182	407	46	243	42	6	197	9	-32	+1	+0	+6	+9	-1.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	NYY	34%	345	310	55	11	1	4	22	117	10	6	1	177	254	258	512	81	266	34	6	240	42	-23	+1	+0	+6	+10	-0.6
2028	22	MLB	NYY	48%	434	390	73	14	2	7	29	143	12	8	2	187	265	287	552	100	269	33	7	251	50	-24	+1	+0	+8	+12	-0.4
2029	23	MLB	NYY	54%	490	441	84	16	2	9	33	158	13	9	2	190	267	297	564	107	272	32	7	258	56	-25	+1	+0	+9	+14	-0.1
2030	24	MLB	NYY	55%	520	465	90	17	2	10	36	165	14	9	2	194	272	303	575	110	273	32	7	262	59	-24	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.1
2031	25	MLB	NYY	56%	520	465	90	17	2	10	36	165	14	9	2	194	272	303	575	110	273	32	7	264	60	-24	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.1
2027	21	MLB	NYY	34%	119	107	19	4	0	2	8	41	3	2	1	178	254	271	525	93	267	34	7	220	27	-10	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.4
2028	22	MLB	NYY	48%	210	188	35	7	1	3	14	69	6	4	1	186	264	282	546	96	271	33	7	233	36	-15	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.5
2029	23	MLB	NYY	54%	266	239	46	9	1	5	18	86	7	5	1	192	269	301	570	109	273	32	7	240	42	-17	+1	+0	+5	+8	-0.5
2030	24	MLB	NYY	55%	288	258	51	10	1	6	20	92	8	5	1	198	276	314	590	116	274	32	7	245	46	-18	+1	+0	+5	+8	-0.4
2031	25	MLB	NYY	56%	291	261	51	10	1	6	20	92	8	5	1	195	273	310	584	115	275	32	7	246	47	-18	+1	+0	+5	+8	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1174	1054	202	40	4	22	80	380	32	21	5	192	270	300	569	108	274	32	7	240	42	-78	+2	+0	+21	+33	-2.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	111	22	2	12	44	210	18	12	3	190	268	296	564	106	271	32	7	240	42	-43	+1	+0	+12	+18	-1.2
Career	—			—	2686	2399	438	86	10	41	179	892	85	62	15	183	264	278	542	95	268	33	7	249	48	-157	+6	+0	+48	+76	-2.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	106	21	2	10	43	216	21	15	4	182	264	277	541	95	267	33	7	249	48	-38	+1	+0	+12	+18	-0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	19	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	66	55	9	2	0	0	5	20	6	6	1	164	303	200	503	36	257	30	8	255	53	-4	+1	—	—	+2	-0.1
2025	19	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	185	153	35	10	1	2	17	49	12	12	4	229	352	346	698	118	314	26	9	320	103	+1	+1	—	—	+5	0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	15	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.3	10.9
	/162	664	12	3	194	253	300	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,438	23	27	191	263	290	+26	+12	-0.8	-0.4
	/162	664	11	12	191	263	290	+11.9	+5.5	-0.4	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ediel Rivera (OGILVIE)	20	30	30	55	35	136/224/182	46	243	2	8	42%	6%	9	-1.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alfredo González 2012 · A	20	36	36→40	47→45	38	174/218/242	68	245	2	8	29%	5%	19	-3.9	194/246/266	72	256	4	10	25%	5%	38	-2.6	229/290/281	52	315	3	6	26%	7%	57	-0.5
✕Gilbert Gomez 2012 · A	20	39→35	40	52→50	40	193/252/284	91	274	7	14	31%	6%	46	-2.0	201/271/278	77	305	4	8	32%	8%	53	-1.5	191/271/264	74	296	3	7	33%	9%	45	-1.3
✕Frankeny Fernandez 2017 · A	20	36	38→40	53→60	42	174/248/255	81	275	5	19	36%	8%	37	-2.6	193/258/268	75	281	5	10	31%	7%	44	-2.1	172/238/215	43	239	3	6	27%	7%	20	-1.1
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A	20	38	40	51→50	39	187/248/282	94	270	8	13	32%	6%	43	-2.2	195/260/276	81	313	7	10	37%	7%	47	-1.9	186/257/265	79	290	10	10	37%	7%	41	-1.1
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	39→28	38→45	51→50	41	185/255/266	81	281	5	13	34%	7%	43	-2.2	211/277/317	106	330	9	15	36%	7%	64	-0.8	193/256/311	118	287	12	16	35%	6%	52	-0.7
✕Wilson Amador 2017 · A	20	37	35→30	51→55	36	176/234/241	65	268	2	15	34%	5%	27	-3.3	202/245/275	73	305	4	16	33%	5%	39	-2.5	199/227/257	58	297	2	29	33%	3%	23	-1.1
✕Victor Tademo 2018 · A	19	39	37→40	52→55	37	189/240/263	74	277	4	14	32%	5%	34	-2.8	195/241/256	61	285	3	7	31%	5%	33	-2.9	181/217/201	20	252	0	3	27%	4%	6	-1.4
✕Yan Olmo 2011 · A	20	40	35→30	47→55	37	189/241/246	57	258	3	9	27%	4%	30	-3.1	212/272/282	70	280	5	13	25%	5%	54	-1.4	218/288/274	56	269	6	23	20%	5%	54	-0.5
✕Omar Hernandez 2022 · A	20	34	37→30	51→55	35	171/215/244	74	256	4	6	34%	5%	19	-3.9	180/229/242	62	263	4	16	31%	5%	24	-3.5	204/241/253	48	273	4	23	25%	4%	29	-1.3
✕Ricardo Rosario 2023 · A	20	40	37→40	50→55	42	191/251/266	76	262	4	12	28%	6%	40	-2.4	205/277/292	87	289	8	19	29%	8%	59	-1.1	203/290/292	89	267	11	29	26%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Luis Sanchez 2007 · A	20	41	36→30	50→40	41	195/252/261	66	275	4	7	29%	6%	40	-2.4	192/257/245	53	275	2	4	28%	8%	37	-2.6	188/244/231	44	262	1	2	27%	7%	26	-1.6
✕Nicolas Febres 2018 · A	19	38	36→30	51→45	33	181/234/249	68	298	3	8	38%	4%	29	-3.2	201/274/256	55	248	1	6	18%	8%	47	-1.9	195/278/231	36	232	0	5	14%	9%	40	-0.8
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	39	38→30	48→45	42	188/251/269	81	260	6	7	29%	6%	42	-2.3	199/274/280	81	291	6	6	31%	8%	55	-1.4	183/255/250	66	251	6	11	27%	8%	37	-0.7
✕Jose Luis Javier 2013 · A	20	41	35→30	50→55	37	191/246/254	63	301	3	14	35%	6%	34	-2.8	212/266/279	67	314	3	16	31%	6%	50	-1.8	221/273/277	56	320	2	24	30%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Yeuris Ramirez 2019 · A	20	33	39→40	47→50	40	163/252/248	85	260	6	8	37%	7%	38	-2.6	191/272/288	97	316	8	13	39%	7%	56	-1.3	155/237/232	77	334	8	23	51%	6%	25	-1.2
✕Jorge Quiterio 2015 · A	20	36	40→45	46→45	39	183/234/269	86	255	8	8	31%	5%	33	-2.9	194/235/279	85	299	6	9	35%	5%	36	-2.7	177/200/259	83	273	6	12	37%	2%	14	-1.1
✕Franklin Torres 2017 · A	20	42→40	34→40	48→50	42	199/253/250	51	273	1	9	26%	6%	36	-2.7	214/268/299	85	279	7	6	24%	7%	56	-1.3	209/272/294	84	280	7	5	26%	7%	54	-0.9
✕Gregori Gonzalez 2010 · A	21	39	35→30	46→55	38	188/230/246	58	269	3	14	30%	5%	25	-3.5	217/258/295	78	269	3	13	20%	4%	50	-1.8	230/267/317	87	275	3	15	17%	3%	58	-0.3
✕Adonis Paula 2013 · A	19	37	37→40	48→40	35	180/236/252	72	281	4	8	36%	5%	30	-3.1	196/258/274	78	286	4	5	31%	6%	46	-2.0	177/237/252	75	275	4	2	35%	6%	29	-1.1
✕Pablo Olivares 2018 · A	20	44→41	36→40	49→50	42	206/276/277	71	285	3	10	27%	6%	55	-1.4	220/288/301	81	285	6	13	24%	6%	66	-0.6	212/286/289	77	272	6	14	22%	6%	59	-0.6