Ediel Rivera

C Tampa Tarpons

Age 21 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	A/ROKNYY	251	.212/.339/.308	2	18	19	—	.135/.250/.190
2026	20	ANYY	233	.197/.312/.283	4	6	30	—	.156/.251/.220
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBNYY	343	.174/.245/.251	4	6	42	-0.3
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBNYY	63	.181/.253/.273	1	1	49	-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBNYY	132	.187/.259/.288	2	3	54	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Speed62

Max EV55

BB%36

Chase%34

Z-Con%32

K%27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsVictor Duarte (age 21) · Omar Hernandez (age 21) · Alfredo González (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 136 proj PA

wRC+†42

AVG/OBP/SLG.172 / .243 / .249

PA136

HR1

K%29

BB%6

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	19	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	66	55	9	2	0	0	5	20	6	6	1	164	303	200	503	36	257	30	8	255	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	185	153	35	10	1	2	17	49	12	12	4	229	352	346	698	118	314	26	9	320	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	233	198	39	5	0	4	22	71	11	6	1	197	312	283	595	86	280	30	9	280	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	19	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	66	56	6	1	0	0	4	27	6	6	1	107	242	125	367	18	216	41	6	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	185	159	23	6	1	1	11	70	12	12	4	145	253	214	467	69	223	38	6	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	233	205	32	4	0	3	15	96	11	6	1	156	251	220	471	63	254	41	6	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	251	216	30	8	1	1	14	98	18	18	5	139	250	199	449	60	242	39	6	197	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	251	208	44	12	1	2	22	69	18	18	5	212	339	308	646	96	300	27	9	303	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	233	205	32	4	0	3	15	96	11	6	1	156	251	220	471	63	269	41	6	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	—	233	198	39	5	0	4	22	71	11	6	1	197	312	283	595	86	280	30	9	280	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	251	217	30	8	1	1	14	98	18	18	5	138	250	198	448	60	221	39	6	197	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	233	205	32	4	0	3	15	96	11	6	1	156	251	220	471	63	254	41	6	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	251	217	30	8	1	1	14	98	18	18	5	138	250	198	448	60	221	39	6	197	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	233	205	32	4	0	3	15	96	11	6	1	156	251	220	471	63	254	41	6	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	343	310	54	10	1	4	21	101	9	6	2	174	245	251	496	77	241	29	6	230	42	-24	+0	+0	+6	+7	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	NYY	34%	182	165	31	6	1	3	11	52	4	4	1	180	252	270	522	89	244	29	6	240	49	-11	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	NYY	48%	273	247	46	9	1	4	17	77	7	5	1	186	258	284	542	98	248	28	6	248	54	-15	+1	+0	+5	+6	-0.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	350	316	60	11	2	6	23	97	8	7	2	191	263	295	558	104	251	28	7	255	59	-17	+1	+0	+6	+8	-0.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	392	354	69	13	2	7	26	108	9	8	2	194	266	302	569	109	253	28	7	259	62	-18	+1	+0	+7	+8	-0.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	416	376	74	14	2	8	28	113	9	8	2	196	269	308	577	111	255	27	7	262	64	-18	+1	+0	+7	+9	-0.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	425	384	75	14	2	8	29	116	9	8	2	195	268	305	573	110	254	27	7	261	63	-19	+1	+0	+8	+9	-0.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	425	384	75	14	2	8	29	117	9	6	2	193	266	300	566	107	253	28	7	258	61	-20	+0	-1	+8	+9	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	NYY	34%	63	57	10	2	0	1	4	18	2	1	0	181	253	273	526	92	244	29	6	242	49	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	NYY	48%	132	120	22	4	1	2	8	37	3	3	1	187	259	288	547	101	248	28	6	250	54	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	185	167	32	6	1	3	12	51	4	4	1	191	264	299	563	108	251	28	6	257	59	-9	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	215	194	38	7	1	4	14	59	5	4	1	195	267	307	575	112	253	27	7	261	62	-10	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	232	209	42	8	1	5	16	63	5	4	1	197	270	313	583	115	255	27	7	265	64	-10	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	234	211	42	8	1	5	16	64	5	4	1	196	269	310	579	114	254	27	7	263	63	-10	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	232	209	41	7	1	5	16	64	5	3	1	194	267	305	572	111	253	28	7	260	61	-11	+0	-0	+4	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1293	1167	227	42	6	25	86	356	29	23	6	195	267	305	572	111	255	28	7	259	53	-61	+2	-0	+23	+28	-0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	114	21	3	13	43	179	15	12	3	194	267	307	574	112	254	28	7	259	53	-31	+1	-0	+12	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	3083	2771	513	97	14	49	200	914	87	73	19	185	262	283	545	98	254	30	6	247	53	-127	+5	-1	+46	+56	-2.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	107	20	3	10	42	193	18	15	4	183	259	279	538	96	252	30	6	247	53	-32	+1	-0	+12	+14	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ATampa Tarpons · 233 PAwOBA .276 → .212 (−64)K% 30.5% → 41.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.47%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	41.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.44%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.015	6.61%
HBP% /PA	4.72%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	3.74%
Singles /BIP	23.62%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.993	×1.015	21.89%
Doubles /BIP	3.94%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.993	×1.015	3.29%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.993	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.15%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.015	2.56%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .276 → .212; ISO .086 → .062; BABIP .280 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Yankees · 185 PAwOBA .317 → .201 (−116)K% 26.5% → 38.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.49%	÷1.001	×1.440	—	—	38.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.19%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.995	5.67%
HBP% /PA	6.49%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	4.65%
Singles /BIP	21.15%	÷1.056	×0.820	×0.966	×0.995	15.78%
Doubles /BIP	9.62%	÷1.043	×0.720	×0.966	×0.995	6.38%
Triples /BIP	0.96%	÷1.008	×0.720	×0.966	×0.995	0.66%
Home runs /BIP	1.92%	÷2.059	×0.780	—	×0.995	0.72%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 312, 1B 111, 2B 109, 3B 102, K 100, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .317 → .201; ISO .118 → .062; BABIP .314 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ATampa Tarpons · 66 PAwOBA .249 → .186 (−63)K% 30.3% → 41.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.30%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	41.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.58%	÷0.971	×0.690	—	×1.030	5.54%
HBP% /PA	9.09%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	7.30%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.119	×0.920	—	×1.030	16.94%
Doubles /BIP	5.71%	÷1.046	×0.830	—	×1.030	4.67%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.913	×0.910	—	×1.030	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.842	×0.800	—	×1.030	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 124, 2B 109, 3B 83, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .249 → .186; ISO .036 → .026; BABIP .257 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	4.5	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.2	10.8
/162	664	12	3	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#4Jeff Torborg'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,525 PA	2.3	1,525	8	3	214*	271*	292*	+27	+0	0.2	0.7
/162	664	3	1	+11.8	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 1
#5Steve Swisher'74-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,577 PA	2.4	1,577	20	4	211*	275*	330*	+28	+0	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	8	2	+11.9	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.1	1,427	25	26	192	261	296	+25	+20	-0.2	0.0
/162	664	12	12	+11.9	+9.3	-0.1	pk7: 0
#6Mike Ryan'64-'74 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,098 PA	3.2	2,098	28	4	196*	257*	311*	+38	+0	-1.9	-0.9
/162	664	9	1	+11.9	+0.0	-0.6	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ediel Rivera (OGILVIE)	21	30	30	55	35	172/243/249	77	241	1	3	29%	6%	42	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	38	38→30	48→45	42	185/249/264	79	253	5	7	28%	6%	47	-2.6	199/274/279	80	289	6	6	31%	7%	59	-1.6	182/251/245	63	250	5	11	28%	7%	41	-0.8
✕Omar Hernandez 2023 · A	21	37	36→30	52→55	36	180/223/245	65	267	3	12	33%	5%	31	-3.7	192/242/254	62	259	4	17	26%	6%	40	-3.0	208/245/263	55	275	4	21	25%	4%	40	-1.5
✕Alfredo González 2013 · A	21	39	35→40	51→45	39	186/228/249	63	238	2	10	22%	4%	34	-3.5	215/275/288	73	289	5	9	25%	7%	61	-1.5	232/294/283	51	313	3	6	25%	7%	64	-0.5
✕Chris Roller 2018 · A	21	37	37→45	53→55	45	177/253/254	77	242	4	12	27%	8%	46	-2.6	204/272/316	112	294	8	11	31%	7%	67	-1.1	189/255/293	104	275	7	15	32%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A	20	36	39→40	51→50	40	181/244/269	88	257	7	13	31%	6%	46	-2.6	196/262/273	77	311	7	10	36%	7%	53	-2.1	190/263/263	73	291	8	10	35%	7%	49	-1.2
✕Luis Sanchez 2008 · A	21	37	36→30	45→40	45	179/256/239	60	261	4	7	31%	8%	44	-2.8	203/263/257	54	283	2	4	27%	7%	49	-2.4	198/256/242	45	274	1	2	26%	7%	41	-1.4
✕Jesus Villegas 2008 · A	21	40	36→40	50	40	188/251/259	71	251	3	8	25%	5%	46	-2.6	224/279/291	67	292	4	7	23%	6%	63	-1.4	235/284/293	59	303	4	8	23%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Carlos Paulino 2011 · A	21	37	36→40	48→40	34	179/211/243	64	250	3	4	29%	3%	26	-4.1	217/261/304	87	267	5	4	20%	4%	59	-1.6	236/278/293	57	293	1	0	19%	5%	60	-0.4
✕Blayberg Diaz 2024 · A	21	40	37→30	49→40	39	197/242/260	63	267	5	6	28%	5%	42	-2.9	204/255/261	57	286	2	4	28%	5%	47	-2.5	198/253/243	45	280	1	2	27%	5%	40	-1.1
✕Kyle Nevin 2023 · A	21	41→40	40	52→50	39	199/251/297	98	277	6	10	29%	5%	54	-2.0	219/276/320	101	333	8	10	34%	7%	69	-0.9	214/275/310	96	327	9	12	35%	7%	64	-0.8
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	37	37→30	46→55	50	177/256/249	71	223	4	9	21%	8%	46	-2.6	192/277/264	72	230	5	17	18%	10%	57	-1.8	176/273/236	60	201	6	25	15%	11%	49	-0.8
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	34	39→45	45→50	36	174/218/258	84	255	7	7	34%	5%	32	-3.6	190/226/284	94	268	6	9	30%	4%	41	-3.0	236/292/311	74	314	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	36→30	38→45	50	43	177/250/254	77	257	5	13	32%	7%	45	-2.7	207/272/309	102	322	8	15	36%	7%	65	-1.2	191/253/307	116	283	12	16	35%	6%	55	-0.9
✕Jetsy Extrano 2010 · A	21	37	40→30	49→45	40	184/244/279	95	248	8	7	28%	6%	48	-2.5	187/249/272	85	275	6	8	32%	6%	49	-2.4	168/229/228	60	254	4	9	33%	5%	28	-1.3
✕Yeurys Tejeda 2009 · A	21	35	36→30	51→50	39	173/233/237	64	254	4	11	32%	6%	34	-3.5	198/245/284	86	277	7	7	30%	5%	49	-2.4	172/205/263	90	224	10	4	28%	3%	27	-0.9
✕Luis Palacios 2010 · A	21	38	39→30	46→50	37	187/233/269	82	257	6	5	29%	4%	40	-3.0	193/240/271	78	304	5	7	36%	5%	43	-2.8	142/192/178	36	239	0	6	38%	6%	1	-1.0
✕Carlos Torres 2014 · A	21	37	37→30	47→50	44	181/246/248	67	236	5	9	25%	7%	42	-2.9	186/227/255	69	255	5	6	28%	4%	34	-3.5	181/213/238	56	245	3	4	27%	3%	23	-1.2
✕Sander Mora 2022 · A	21	37	37→30	52→55	46	179/260/252	72	259	5	12	31%	9%	48	-2.5	179/252/257	78	300	6	9	39%	8%	46	-2.6	133/219/193	60	224	6	11	40%	10%	18	-1.9
✕Ricardo Rosario 2023 · A	20	39	36→40	50→55	44	186/249/258	71	249	3	12	26%	7%	45	-2.7	204/271/288	84	283	7	19	28%	7%	60	-1.6	202/282/289	86	263	10	29	26%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Lizandro Espinoza 2024 · A	21	31→24	39→45	47→60	38	161/223/240	80	247	7	10	36%	6%	31	-3.7	167/231/270	103	253	11	20	37%	7%	42	-2.9	159/229/271	111	233	12	30	36%	7%	39	-1.8

Ediel Rivera

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps