Blayberg Diaz
C Wisconsin Timber Rattlers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | ACarolina Mudc… | 258 | .249/.328/.319 | 1 | 3 | 45 | — | .201/.270/.261 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+/A2 orgs | 246 | .243/.305/.301 | 0 | 1 | 38 | — | .204/.256/.248 |
| 2026 | 23 | A+MIL | 157 | .225/.295/.268 | 0 | 0 | 34 | — | .200/.256/.234 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBMIL | 207 | .202/.251/.261 | 1 | 3 | 45 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBMIL | 36 | .204/.255/.277 | 0 | 0 | 52 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 127 | 113 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 283 | 357 | 416 | 773 | 133 | 318 | 17 | 6 | 347 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 134 | 108 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 185 | 318 | 278 | 596 | 93 | 193 | 16 | 13 | 275 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 195 | 185 | 46 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 42 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 249 | 280 | 281 | 561 | 32 | 317 | 22 | 4 | 254 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 258 | 229 | 57 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 52 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 249 | 328 | 319 | 647 | 70 | 315 | 20 | 7 | 298 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 200 | 184 | 42 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 228 | 290 | 293 | 583 | 65 | 304 | 23 | 6 | 270 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 46 | 42 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 310 | 370 | 333 | 703 | 24 | 333 | 7 | 9 | 325 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 157 | 142 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 295 | 268 | 562 | 42 | 299 | 23 | 7 | 262 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 127 | 116 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 207 | 270 | 302 | 572 | 95 | 255 | 25 | 4 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 134 | 115 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 139 | 233 | 200 | 433 | 61 | 153 | 24 | 7 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 195 | 187 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 58 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 228 | 230 | 458 | 27 | 281 | 30 | 3 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 258 | 234 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 70 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 201 | 270 | 261 | 530 | 60 | 272 | 27 | 5 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 200 | 187 | 34 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 62 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 182 | 235 | 230 | 465 | 48 | 270 | 31 | 4 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 46 | 43 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 302 | 348 | 326 | 673 | 23 | 320 | 9 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 157 | 145 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 256 | 234 | 491 | 34 | 282 | 29 | 5 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 127 | 116 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 207 | 270 | 302 | 572 | 95 | 256 | 25 | 4 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 127 | 113 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 283 | 357 | 416 | 773 | 133 | 318 | 17 | 6 | 347 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 134 | 115 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 139 | 233 | 200 | 433 | 61 | 163 | 24 | 7 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 134 | 108 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 185 | 318 | 278 | 596 | 93 | 193 | 16 | 13 | 275 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 195 | 187 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 58 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 228 | 230 | 458 | 27 | 290 | 30 | 3 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | Carolina Mudcats | — | 195 | 185 | 46 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 42 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 249 | 280 | 281 | 561 | 32 | 317 | 22 | 4 | 254 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 258 | 234 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 70 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 201 | 270 | 261 | 530 | 60 | 279 | 27 | 5 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | Carolina Mudcats | — | 258 | 229 | 57 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 52 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 249 | 328 | 319 | 647 | 70 | 315 | 20 | 7 | 298 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 246 | 230 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 66 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 204 | 256 | 248 | 504 | 43 | 287 | 27 | 4 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 246 | 226 | 55 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 49 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 243 | 305 | 301 | 606 | 58 | 311 | 20 | 6 | 280 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 157 | 145 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 256 | 234 | 491 | 34 | 290 | 29 | 5 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ RAW | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 157 | 142 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 295 | 268 | 562 | 42 | 299 | 23 | 7 | 262 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 127 | 116 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 207 | 270 | 302 | 572 | 95 | 255 | 25 | 4 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 134 | 119 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 134 | 233 | 193 | 426 | 59 | 153 | 24 | 7 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 195 | 187 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 58 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 228 | 230 | 458 | 27 | 281 | 30 | 3 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 258 | 234 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 70 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 201 | 270 | 261 | 530 | 60 | 272 | 27 | 5 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 246 | 228 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 66 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 206 | 256 | 250 | 506 | 44 | 279 | 27 | 4 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 157 | 145 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 256 | 234 | 491 | 34 | 282 | 29 | 5 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 258 | 234 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 70 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 201 | 270 | 261 | 530 | 60 | 272 | 27 | 5 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 246 | 228 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 66 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 206 | 256 | 250 | 506 | 44 | 279 | 27 | 4 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 157 | 145 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 256 | 234 | 491 | 34 | 282 | 29 | 5 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIL | 0% | 207 | 192 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 50 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 251 | 261 | 512 | 59 | 267 | 24 | 5 | 234 | 45 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIL | 30% | 119 | 110 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 258 | 282 | 540 | 75 | 268 | 24 | 5 | 245 | 52 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIL | 30% | 36 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 255 | 277 | 532 | 73 | 264 | 25 | 6 | 242 | 52 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 36 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 212 | 462 | 30 | 250 | 25 | 6 | 242 | 39 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 596 | 108 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 162 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 181 | 249 | 211 | 461 | 30 | 249 | 25 | 6 | 242 | 39 | -37 | +0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1307 | 1204 | 237 | 40 | 1 | 7 | 62 | 350 | 29 | 15 | 6 | 197 | 253 | 249 | 502 | 52 | 268 | 27 | 5 | 225 | 39 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 599 | 117 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 174 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 195 | 252 | 244 | 495 | 48 | 266 | 27 | 5 | 225 | 39 | -39 | +1 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 157 PAwOBA .257 → .219 (−38)K% 22.9% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.93% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 29.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 4.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.91% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 23.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 4.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .257 → .219; ISO .042 → .034; BABIP .299 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 200 PAwOBA .263 → .209 (−54)K% 23.0% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.00% | ÷0.943 | ×1.270 | — | — | 30.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.50% | ÷0.965 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 4.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.50% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 2.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 19.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷1.013 | ×0.810 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 7.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.246 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 89, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .263 → .209; ISO .065 → .049; BABIP .304 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ACarolina Mudcats · 46 PAwOBA .317 → .289 (−28)K% 6.5% → 8.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.52% | ÷1.033 | ×1.360 | — | — | 8.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷0.981 | ×0.690 | — | — | 6.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷0.948 | ×0.920 | — | — | 29.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.002 | ×0.830 | — | — | 2.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.214 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 107, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .317 → .289; ISO .024 → .020; BABIP .333 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ACarolina Mudcats · 258 PAwOBA .293 → .234 (−59)K% 20.2% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.16% | ÷1.013 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.36% | ÷0.980 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.10% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.29% | ÷1.066 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×1.015 | 21.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.34% | ÷0.962 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×1.015 | 6.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.007 | ×0.910 | ×0.989 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.56% | ÷1.101 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.42% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 113, 2B 92, 3B 101, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .293 → .234; ISO .070 → .056; BABIP .315 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ACarolina Mudcats · 195 PAwOBA .250 → .201 (−49)K% 21.5% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.54% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.59% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 2.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.51% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.67% | ÷1.049 | ×0.920 | ×0.990 | ×1.030 | 25.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.80% | ÷1.090 | ×0.830 | ×0.990 | ×1.030 | 2.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.990 | ×1.030 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.072 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 110, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .250 → .201; ISO .032 → .026; BABIP .317 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Brewers Gold · 134 PAwOBA .279 → .203 (−76)K% 16.4% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.42% | ÷0.991 | ×1.440 | — | — | 23.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.69% | ÷1.017 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 7.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.99% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.60% | ÷0.979 | ×0.820 | ×0.956 | ×1.008 | 15.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.16% | ÷1.023 | ×0.720 | ×0.956 | ×1.008 | 0.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×0.956 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.49% | ÷1.144 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 2.40% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .279 → .203; ISO .093 → .065; BABIP .193 → .153. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Brewers Gold · 127 PAwOBA .340 → .255 (−85)K% 17.3% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.32% | ÷1.001 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.30% | ÷1.021 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 3.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.94% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 2.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.47% | ÷1.002 | ×0.820 | ×0.976 | ×1.022 | 22.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.30% | ÷0.986 | ×0.720 | ×0.976 | ×1.022 | 2.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.949 | ×0.720 | ×0.976 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.40% | ÷0.964 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 3.64% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 100, 2B 97, 3B 90, K 100, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .340 → .255; ISO .133 → .102; BABIP .318 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).