Theo Hardy — OGILVIE

Theo HardySS Frisco RoughRiders

Age 24 S/R 6'1" / 185 lbs AA HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION174 act + 16 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†50

AVG/OBP/SLG.133 / .188 / .133

PA16

HR0

K%31

BB%6

BABIP265

ISO73

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 34

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER34

scouting grade only

EYE54

scouting grade only

SPEED54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	22	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	16	13	2	1	1	0	2	4	1	0	0	154	312	385	697	231	222	25	12	314	99	-0	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2024	22	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	36	29	6	1	0	1	6	9	0	2	0	207	343	345	688	138	250	25	17	310	96	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2025	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	39	36	8	2	0	0	3	8	0	1	1	222	282	278	560	56	286	21	8	259	61	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	23	A+	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	127	99	19	2	1	0	21	33	4	6	2	192	355	232	587	40	279	26	17	285	79	-3	+0	—	—	+3	0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	22	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	16	14	2	1	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	143	250	357	607	214	185	31	6	242	50	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	36	31	6	1	0	1	4	12	0	2	0	194	286	323	608	129	218	33	11	242	50	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	23	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	39	37	8	2	0	0	2	10	0	1	1	216	256	270	527	54	271	26	5	215	32	-3	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	127	107	18	2	1	0	13	43	4	6	2	168	282	206	488	37	259	34	10	229	41	-9	+0	—	—	+3	-0.6
2024	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	52	45	8	2	1	1	5	17	1	2	0	178	275	333	608	156	250	33	10	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	52	42	8	2	1	1	8	13	1	2	0	190	333	357	690	167	241	25	15	312	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	166	144	26	4	1	0	15	53	4	7	3	181	276	222	498	42	280	32	9	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	166	135	27	4	1	0	24	41	4	7	3	200	337	244	582	44	281	25	14	279	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	52	46	8	2	1	1	5	17	1	2	0	174	275	326	601	152	208	33	10	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	166	146	26	4	1	0	15	53	4	7	3	178	276	219	495	41	262	32	9	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	52	46	8	2	1	1	5	17	1	2	0	174	275	326	601	152	208	33	10	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	166	146	26	4	1	0	15	53	4	7	3	178	276	219	495	41	262	32	9	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	TEX	—	174	152	26	4	2	2	14	63	5	6	0	171	263	263	526	92	276	36	8	239	48	-11	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ RAW	TEX	—	59	47	12	2	1	2	9	16	2	2	0	255	397	468	865	213	345	27	15	380	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	AA RAW	TEX	—	80	69	12	2	0	1	8	28	2	3	0	174	278	246	525	72	275	35	10	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	AAA RAW	TEX	—	35	29	6	1	1	0	4	6	1	1	0	207	324	310	634	103	261	17	11	287	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	24	AA MLE	TEX	2%	16	15	2	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	133	188	133	321		263	31	6	243	50	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	24	AA MLE	TEX	—	190	167	28	4	2	2	15	68	5	6	0	168	257	251	508	84	268	36	8	239	48	-12	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TEX	31%	300	266	51	10	2	4	26	92	5	7	1	192	276	289	566	98	268	31	9	255	59	-15	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	45%	361	321	62	12	2	5	31	108	6	8	1	193	277	290	566	97	270	30	9	262	64	-16	+1	+0	+4	+8	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	49%	382	340	67	13	2	6	33	113	6	8	2	197	280	300	580	103	271	30	9	265	66	-16	+1	+0	+4	+8	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	TEX	52%	395	351	68	13	2	6	35	117	6	8	2	194	278	293	572	100	271	30	9	266	66	-16	+1	-1	+4	+9	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	TEX	52%	395	351	68	13	2	6	35	118	6	8	1	194	278	293	572	100	270	30	9	264	65	-16	+1	-1	+4	+9	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	TEX	31%	93	84	16	3	1	1	8	28	1	2	0	190	269	286	555	95	270	30	9	246	59	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	45%	161	143	28	5	1	3	14	48	3	4	1	196	281	308	589	112	272	30	9	254	64	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	49%	188	167	33	6	1	3	16	56	3	4	1	198	280	299	579	102	273	30	9	257	66	-8	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	TEX	52%	204	181	37	7	1	4	18	60	3	4	1	204	287	320	608	116	273	29	9	258	66	-8	+0	-0	+2	+4	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	TEX	52%	204	181	35	7	1	3	18	61	3	4	1	193	277	293	570	99	272	30	9	256	65	-8	+0	-1	+2	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	850	756	149	28	5	14	74	253	13	18	4	197	280	303	583	106	274	30	9	255	62	-36	+2	-1	+9	+18	-0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	114	21	4	11	57	193	10	14	3	197	281	304	585	107	273	30	9	255	62	-27	+2	-1	+7	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	2067	1833	352	67	12	28	181	623	34	48	10	192	277	288	564	95	271	30	9	259	62	-79	+5	-2	+20	+40	-1.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	111	21	4	9	57	196	11	15	3	193	278	290	568	97	272	30	9	259	62	-28	+2	-1	+7	+14	-0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.3	853	13	18	195	276	298	+9	+6	-0.2	-0.1
/162	664	10	14	+7.1	+4.7	-0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Theo Hardy (OGILVIE)	24	20	34	54	54	178/261/255	77	263	2	5	32%	8%	50	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕J.T. Arruda 2022 · A	24	38→42	38→40	53→55	44	185/253/266	81	273	5	13	32%	8%	48	-2.5	202/277/292	90	295	6	20	31%	9%	63	-1.3	211/276/297	86	290	7	22	28%	8%	61	-0.9
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2021 · AA	23	38→45	36→40	51→50	45	181/256/249	69	269	4	15	32%	9%	45	-2.7	201/280/295	94	290	8	14	30%	10%	65	-1.2	199/285/288	89	292	7	15	31%	10%	63	-0.8
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	36	36→40	52→50	41	176/235/239	63	249	4	15	30%	6%	35	-3.4	212/281/292	80	276	8	14	24%	8%	65	-1.2	205/280/278	73	264	8	16	24%	8%	59	-0.8
✕Roberto Caro 2018 · AA	24	43→41	36→40	53→60	42	199/269/273	74	308	2	16	34%	8%	55	-1.9	218/287/298	80	314	3	27	29%	8%	68	-1.0	220/291/294	75	311	3	35	28%	8%	67	-0.7
✕Gerard Hall 2011 · A	23	41→39	37→40	49→50	44	196/256/272	76	277	4	12	29%	7%	50	-2.3	214/268/301	87	306	3	10	29%	7%	61	-1.5	225/275/316	91	323	0	8	28%	6%	64	-0.7
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→40	50→45	40	186/240/263	77	257	4	8	28%	6%	42	-2.9	207/267/299	92	292	8	10	30%	7%	61	-1.5	192/260/271	78	271	9	12	31%	7%	51	-0.6
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	177/255/257	79	269	8	14	35%	9%	48	-2.5	207/287/299	92	295	7	12	29%	9%	69	-0.9	212/301/305	93	294	5	13	27%	10%	75	-0.3
✕Oliver Dominguez 2013 · A	24	41	40	50→45	45	198/270/295	97	282	7	10	30%	8%	61	-1.5	202/259/302	100	295	8	7	32%	7%	59	-1.7	165/211/251	86	235	9	0	33%	5%	27	-1.0
✕Dwayne Bailey 2011 · AAA	24	41	35→30	53→50	40	195/250/249	55	288	2	14	32%	6%	42	-2.9	220/280/292	72	318	3	12	29%	7%	63	-1.3	229/294/291	62	333	2	11	29%	7%	65	-0.8
✕Estarlin De Los Santos 2011 · AA	24	45→41	36→40	50→55	40	210/256/279	69	292	2	15	28%	5%	51	-2.3	198/243/268	70	271	4	11	27%	5%	44	-2.8	180/219/235	56	240	4	9	26%	3%	24	-1.5
✕Joseph Rosa 2021 · A	24	43→44	38→40	44→50	42	205/270/286	81	290	6	9	30%	7%	59	-1.6	213/281/322	109	313	9	17	32%	7%	72	-0.7	204/281/306	103	305	8	21	33%	8%	66	-0.6
✕Shawn Williams 2008 · A	24	43	37→40	48→40	44	206/262/282	76	274	4	7	26%	7%	55	-2.0	219/268/291	72	314	3	4	30%	5%	59	-1.7	219/271/289	70	323	3	2	31%	4%	58	-0.8
✕Andrés Alvarez 2021 · A	24	41→31	37→45	48→50	42	196/261/270	74	275	4	7	29%	7%	52	-2.2	202/269/324	122	288	13	15	33%	8%	68	-1.0	182/251/303	121	254	14	15	33%	8%	55	-1.1
✕Eliezer Zambrano 2011 · AA	24	41	37→30	49→40	36	200/234/268	68	271	4	7	27%	4%	40	-3.1	211/256/293	82	265	6	6	22%	5%	55	-2.0	214/245/261	47	247	4	2	15%	3%	40	-1.0
✕Steven Baron 2015 · AA	24	40	39→45	51→50	37	195/234/284	88	271	5	9	29%	4%	44	-2.8	228/283/306	78	309	5	8	26%	7%	68	-1.0	235/296/303	67	318	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Jackson Cluff 2022 · AA	25	40→30	40→45	49→60	38	194/261/281	86	283	7	12	32%	5%	55	-1.9	180/256/281	101	278	9	16	36%	8%	53	-2.1	179/271/301	122	264	12	28	34%	10%	62	-0.8
✕Adam White 2009 · A	24	40→38	37→30	52→55	44	194/257/263	70	271	5	17	29%	7%	49	-2.4	211/276/294	83	314	5	19	32%	7%	63	-1.3	216/292/293	77	344	3	33	34%	8%	68	-0.3
✕Jobduan Morales 2014 · A	23	37	37→40	49→40	42	180/245/252	72	276	5	4	35%	8%	42	-2.9	199/259/286	87	302	7	5	34%	7%	55	-2.0	195/254/288	94	300	7	3	35%	7%	53	-1.0
✕Grae Kessinger 2022 · AA	24	38→31	42→45	48→50	41	191/251/284	93	257	11	15	30%	6%	52	-2.2	195/269/308	113	260	13	14	29%	8%	64	-1.3	179/261/273	93	244	9	8	29%	9%	52	-0.9
✕Ronald Bueno 2017 · AA	24	46	38→40	49→50	45	216/275/298	81	292	4	11	26%	7%	63	-1.4	215/274/318	103	280	8	7	25%	7%	68	-1.0	204/265/311	107	257	9	2	23%	7%	59	-1.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps