Theo Hardy — OGILVIE

Theo HardySS Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 24 S/R 6'1" / 185 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION114 act + 76 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†47

AVG/OBP/SLG.174 / .250 / .246

PA76

HR1

K%30

BB%8

BABIP244

ISO72

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 21 / POW 32

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT21

scouting grade only

POWER32

scouting grade only

EYE54

scouting grade only

SPEED54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	22	A+	2 teams	—	52	45	7	2	1	1	5	17	1	2	0	156	255	311	566	156	214	33	10	234	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	2 teams	—	52	42	8	2	1	1	8	13	1	2	0	190	333	357	690	167	241	25	15	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	2 teams	—	166	144	26	4	1	0	15	53	4	7	3	181	276	222	498	42	280	32	9	224	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	2 teams	—	166	135	27	4	1	0	24	41	4	7	3	200	337	244	582	44	281	25	14	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	A+	TEX	—	114	99	16	2	1	2	10	46	3	4	0	162	259	263	522	101	275	40	9	224	30	-9	+1	+0	+1	+3	-0.4
YTD	24	A+	TEX	—	114	94	18	3	1	2	15	35	3	4	0	191	321	309	630	117	281	31	13	291	81	-2	+1	+0	+1	+3	0.3
ROS	24	A+	TEX	0%	76	69	12	2	0	1	6	23	1	2	0	174	250	246	496	72	262	30	8	246	47	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
ROS	24	MLB	TEX	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		263	—	—	236	38	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	24	A+	TEX	—	114	100	16	2	1	2	10	46	3	4	0	160	259	260	519	100	269	40	9	224	30	-9	+1	+0	+1	+3	-0.4
TOT	24	A+	TEX	—	190	168	28	4	1	3	16	69	4	6	0	167	255	256	511	89	260	36	8	233	36	-14	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	TEX	30%	266	237	46	9	2	3	23	77	4	6	1	194	277	287	563	93	265	29	9	255	54	-14	+1	+0	+3	+8	-0.3
2028	26	MLB	TEX	44%	335	298	59	11	2	5	29	95	5	7	2	198	280	299	579	101	267	28	9	263	59	-15	+1	+0	+4	+9	-0.2
2029	27	MLB	TEX	49%	366	326	65	12	2	6	32	103	5	8	2	199	281	304	585	104	269	28	9	266	62	-16	+1	+0	+4	+10	-0.1
2030	28	MLB	TEX	52%	384	342	68	13	2	6	34	108	5	8	2	199	281	301	582	102	269	28	9	266	62	-16	+1	-1	+4	+11	-0.1
2027	25	MLB	TEX	30%	81	73	14	3	0	1	7	23	1	2	0	192	272	274	546	82	267	28	9	246	47	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	26	MLB	TEX	44%	148	132	26	5	1	2	13	42	2	3	1	197	279	295	574	98	269	28	9	253	52	-8	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
2029	27	MLB	TEX	49%	179	159	32	6	1	3	16	51	2	4	1	201	282	308	591	107	270	28	9	257	55	-9	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.2
2030	28	MLB	TEX	52%	198	175	35	7	1	3	18	56	3	4	1	200	286	303	589	103	270	28	9	257	55	-10	+0	-0	+2	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	606	540	107	21	3	9	54	172	8	13	3	198	281	298	579	100	271	28	9	255	53	-32	+1	-0	+6	+17	-0.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	115	23	3	10	58	184	9	14	3	199	282	301	583	102	271	28	9	255	53	-34	+2	-0	+7	+18	-0.8
Career	—			—	1645	1461	283	53	10	22	144	476	25	40	10	194	277	289	566	95	268	29	9	258	55	-83	+4	-1	+18	+47	-1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	112	21	4	9	57	188	10	16	4	194	278	291	569	97	268	29	9	258	55	-33	+2	-0	+7	+18	-0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	22	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	16	13	2	1	1	0	2	4	1	0	0	154	312	385	697	231	222	25	12	314	99	-0	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2024	22	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	36	29	6	1	0	1	6	9	0	2	0	207	343	345	688	138	250	25	17	310	96	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2025	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	39	36	8	2	0	0	3	8	0	1	1	222	282	278	560	56	286	21	8	259	56	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	23	A+	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	127	99	19	2	1	0	21	33	4	6	2	192	355	232	587	40	279	26	17	285	77	-3	+0	—	—	+4	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	607	9	13	198	277	297	+7	+6	-0.3	-0.1
	/162	664	10	14	198	277	297	+7.1	+6.6	-0.3	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Theo Hardy (OGILVIE)	24	21	32	54	54	167/255/256	89	260	3	6	36%	8%	36	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕J.T. Arruda 2022 · A	24	39→41	38→40	54→55	42	186/251/269	83	279	5	13	33%	8%	41	-2.3	201/275/292	91	299	6	20	32%	9%	58	-1.2	205/267/297	93	281	9	23	29%	7%	52	-0.8
✕Roberto Caro 2018 · AA	24	43→38	36→40	53→60	42	197/268/272	75	308	2	16	34%	8%	50	-1.8	213/282/294	81	311	4	27	30%	8%	60	-1.0	211/281/286	75	304	3	35	29%	8%	57	-0.8
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	35	36→40	52→50	40	172/231/233	61	252	4	15	32%	6%	24	-3.6	212/280/299	87	278	9	14	25%	8%	62	-0.9	207/281/290	83	267	10	16	25%	8%	57	-0.6
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2021 · AA	23	38→44	36→40	51→50	45	179/255/247	68	273	4	15	33%	9%	37	-2.6	199/279/294	95	294	8	14	32%	10%	59	-1.1	198/284/290	92	298	8	15	33%	10%	58	-0.7
✕Gerard Hall 2011 · A	23	41→39	37→40	49→50	44	195/254/270	74	274	4	12	29%	7%	42	-2.3	214/267/300	86	306	4	10	29%	6%	55	-1.4	225/274/314	90	324	0	8	29%	6%	59	-0.6
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→40	50→45	40	187/240/263	77	259	4	8	29%	5%	35	-2.8	204/263/296	92	292	8	10	31%	7%	53	-1.5	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Jake Palomaki 2019 · A	24	44	39→30	52→50	49	213/282/298	85	259	7	11	20%	8%	62	-0.9	205/275/262	57	263	2	14	21%	8%	50	-1.8	217/288/262	45	280	1	17	21%	8%	52	-0.9
✕Oliver Dominguez 2013 · A	24	40	40	50→45	45	194/265/290	97	275	7	10	31%	8%	53	-1.5	200/256/298	98	292	8	7	32%	7%	50	-1.7	161/205/243	82	230	8	0	33%	5%	13	-1.0
✕Kawika Emsley-Pai 2014 · A	25	40	35→30	48→40	53	185/285/245	61	271	2	7	30%	12%	51	-1.7	209/291/299	90	290	8	7	28%	10%	66	-0.6	179/278/276	97	238	12	2	28%	11%	55	-0.4
✕Dwayne Bailey 2011 · AAA	24	42	35→30	53→50	40	195/250/250	55	290	2	14	32%	6%	35	-2.8	219/281/290	71	320	3	12	30%	7%	59	-1.1	227/294/286	60	334	2	11	30%	8%	59	-0.7
✕Estarlin De Los Santos 2011 · AA	24	44→40	36→40	50→55	39	208/254/277	69	293	2	15	29%	5%	43	-2.2	196/240/269	73	272	5	11	28%	4%	36	-2.7	175/214/237	62	237	5	9	28%	3%	13	-1.5
✕Tim Arakawa 2017 · AAA	24	43→42	36→30	48→50	50	205/276/273	67	268	4	10	24%	9%	53	-1.5	213/278/296	83	301	8	12	29%	8%	59	-1.1	204/273/276	72	302	10	13	34%	8%	53	-0.7
✕Michael De La Cruz 2017 · A	24	40→46	38→40	47→50	44	193/248/275	82	251	5	10	25%	6%	41	-2.3	214/270/309	95	291	6	6	27%	7%	59	-1.1	210/295/360	150	264	16	2	26%	10%	80	+0.1
✕Adam White 2009 · A	24	40→38	37→30	52→55	44	194/257/263	70	271	5	17	29%	7%	42	-2.3	211/276/294	83	314	5	19	32%	7%	59	-1.1	216/292/293	77	344	3	33	34%	8%	64	-0.2
✕Shawn Williams 2008 · A	24	43	37→40	48→40	44	206/262/282	76	274	4	7	26%	7%	49	-1.8	219/269/291	72	314	3	4	30%	5%	54	-1.4	219/271/289	70	323	3	2	31%	4%	52	-0.7
✕Eliezer Zambrano 2011 · AA	24	42	37→30	49→40	37	201/234/269	68	268	4	7	26%	3%	33	-2.9	210/255/295	85	263	7	6	22%	5%	49	-1.8	213/243/266	53	245	5	2	15%	3%	33	-0.9
✕Elih Marrero 2021 · A	24	43	39→40	49→55	44	209/265/293	84	274	6	7	25%	7%	53	-1.5	210/281/284	74	303	4	21	29%	8%	58	-1.2	201/279/263	62	296	3	27	30%	9%	50	-0.6
✕Robi Estrada 2013 · A	24	44	37→40	51→50	48	211/270/287	76	266	4	12	22%	8%	53	-1.5	218/269/310	92	265	6	8	19%	7%	59	-1.1	215/262/305	90	262	8	9	21%	6%	51	-0.5
✕Stephen Perez 2016 · AA	25	41→47	36→30	50	46	196/258/263	67	261	3	13	25%	8%	43	-2.2	201/270/270	69	274	5	14	26%	8%	50	-1.8	195/270/253	58	268	5	15	27%	8%	44	-1.0
✕Luis Mendez 2018 · AA	25	42	37→30	47→50	44	203/263/276	72	274	5	12	27%	7%	48	-1.9	211/268/310	99	299	9	10	31%	7%	59	-1.1	197/253/279	82	279	8	7	31%	6%	41	-1.0