Zachary Cawyer

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	AKC	8	11	4.22	1.79	28.3%	8.7%	—	K 28.3% · BB 8.7% · FIP 1.81
2025	22	MIX2 levels	41	58	3.41	2.60	30.7%	9.8%	—	K 24.4% · BB 9.9% · FIP 3.45
2026	23	AANorthwest Ark…	51	62	6.53	5.81	23.7%	11.4%	—	K 19.2% · BB 12.5% · FIP 6.58
2027PROJ	24	MLBKC	86	90	5.17	5.17	21.2%	10.9%	-0.6
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBKC	38	40	4.98	4.91	22.0%	9.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBKC	58	61	4.86	4.81	22.4%	9.6%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control45Command60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsAustin Ross (age 24) · Cody Tucker (age 25) · Andrew Cashner (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%21.2%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD6060

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	8	0	11	46	13	4	0	0%	1.3	28.3%	8.7%	19.6%	0.0%	4.22	1.81	—
2024	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	8	0	11	46	13	4	0	0%	1.3	28.3%	8.7%	19.6%	0.0%	4.22	1.81	—
2024	21	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	8	0	11	46	13	4	0	0%	1.3	28.3%	8.7%	19.6%	0.0%	4.22	1.79	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	58	254	78	25	4	0%	1.4	24.4%	9.9%	14.5%	2.1%	3.41	3.45	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	58	254	78	25	4	0%	1.4	24.4%	9.9%	14.5%	2.1%	3.41	3.45	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	58	254	78	25	4	0%	1.4	30.7%	9.8%	20.9%	1.6%	3.41	2.60	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	51	0	62	299	71	34	16	0%	1.2	19.2%	12.5%	6.7%	6.4%	6.53	6.58	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	51	0	62	299	71	34	16	0%	1.2	19.2%	12.5%	6.7%	6.4%	6.53	6.58	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	51	0	62	299	71	34	16	0%	1.2	23.7%	11.4%	12.4%	5.4%	6.53	5.81	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	KC	86	0	90	380	80	41	15	0%	1.0	21.2%	10.9%	10.2%	3.8%	5.17	5.17	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	87	0	91	385	85	38	14	0%	1.0	22.0%	9.8%	12.2%	3.7%	4.98	4.91	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	87	0	91	385	86	37	14	0%	1.0	22.4%	9.6%	12.8%	3.7%	4.86	4.81	-0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	85	0	90	379	85	36	14	0%	1.1	22.4%	9.6%	12.8%	3.7%	4.83	4.82	-0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	83	0	87	367	82	36	14	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.7%	12.6%	3.8%	4.86	4.89	-0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	79	0	83	351	77	35	14	0%	1.1	22.0%	9.9%	12.1%	3.9%	4.96	5.03	-0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	74	0	78	330	78	31	14	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.4%	14.3%	4.1%	4.94	4.93	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	38	0	40	169	37	17	6	0%	1.1	22.0%	9.8%	12.2%	3.7%	4.98	4.91	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	58	0	61	258	58	25	9	0%	1.1	22.4%	9.6%	12.8%	3.7%	4.86	4.81	-0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	67	0	70	296	66	28	11	0%	1.0	22.4%	9.6%	12.8%	3.7%	4.83	4.82	-0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	70	0	73	308	69	30	12	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.7%	12.6%	3.8%	4.86	4.89	-0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	70	0	73	308	68	31	12	0%	1.0	22.0%	9.9%	12.1%	3.9%	4.96	5.03	-0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	67	0	70	296	70	28	12	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.4%	14.3%	4.1%	4.94	4.93	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		368	0	387	1634	368	158	62	0%	1.1	22.5%	9.7%	12.9%	3.8%	4.90	4.52	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	82	32	0%	1.1	22.5%	9.7%	12.9%	3.8%	4.90	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		100	0	131	599	132	67	25	0%	1.3	22.1%	11.1%	11.0%	4.1%	4.96	4.89	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	0	200	917	203	102	38	0%	1.3	22.1%	11.1%	11.0%	4.1%	4.96	4.89	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zachary Cawyer (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	21.2%	10.9%	3.8%	—	4.85	22.3%	12.6%	272	-0.32	—	—	—
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	89
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	88
Andrew Cashner R 2010 · 4.51 FIP	23	SU	4.51	20.2%	10.1%	3.4%	.285	3.30	19.9%	13.0%	221	-1.21	2.94	1,185	86
Aaron Crow R 2011 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	24.4%	10.9%	3.2%	.287	4.16	20.1%	11.4%	172	-0.04	2.88	234	86
Kaleb Fontenot R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	24	SU	4.48	20.7%	8.6%	3.7%	.264	3.71	14.7%	5.2%	69	-0.77	3.71	155	86
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	86
Zach Jackson R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	24	SU	5.01	20.8%	12.4%	3.8%	.261	2.42	33.6%	19.6%	76	-2.59	2.33	309	86
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	85
Tanner Jacobson R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	24	SU	5.22	20.9%	12.9%	4.1%	.261	4.47	21.4%	2.1%	51	-0.75	4.09	168	85
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	84
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	84
Adam Boucher R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SU	5.02	22.1%	10.3%	4.5%	.321	6.20	16.8%	-7.8%	74	+1.18	4.87	130	84
Hunter Dula R 2023 · 4.86 FIP	24	SU	4.86	20.1%	12.1%	3.5%	.301	4.06	19.8%	10.2%	37	-0.80	3.91	132	84
Peyton Stumbo R 2024 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	19.0%	10.4%	4.2%	.326	4.93	15.6%	6.8%	211	-0.18	4.10	279	84
Shay Schanaman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	21.0%	7.6%	3.7%	.292	6.05	16.4%	2.8%	90	+1.71	4.34	148	83
Rhiner Cruz R 2012 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	18.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.335	4.81	10.2%	-1.0%	21	+0.01	3.21	127	83
Héctor Neris R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.9%	10.0%	2.5%	.298	3.03	31.5%	23.7%	221	-0.97	2.03	682	83
Matt Lollis R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	18.5%	12.2%	2.7%	.237	4.95	19.2%	4.7%	56	+0.39	4.56	120	83
Matt Frawley R 2018 · 4.35 FIP	22	SU	4.35	19.5%	10.0%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	2.25	139	82
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	22.3%	9.8%	1.47	4.94
Vince Velasquez ('15-'23, 2 WAR*)	3.8	85	21.9%*	9.2%*	1.37*	4.99*
Vicente Palacios ('87-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.9	62	21.0%*	10.0%*	1.41*	4.86*
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Cy Moore ('29-'34, 1 WAR*)	2.3	93	21.3%*	9.8%*	1.25*	4.95*
Paul Moskau ('77-'83, 3 WAR*)	3.2	91	19.8%*	8.9%*	1.50*	4.84*
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86