Adam Boucher — OGILVIE

Adam Boucher P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 235 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.85

FIP5.85

K%18.6%

BB%18.3%

K-BB%0.3%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2020

CMD3030

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	2	0	2	11	5	3	0	0%	1.0	45.5%	27.3%	18.2%	0.0%	4.50	2.72	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	2	0	2	11	5	3	0	0%	1.0	45.5%	27.3%	18.2%	0.0%	4.50	2.72	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	2	0	2	11	5	3	0	0%	1.0	45.5%	27.3%	18.2%	0.0%	4.50	2.60	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	56	240	71	21	8	0%	1.6	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	4.5%	4.47	5.02	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	56	240	71	21	8	0%	1.6	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	4.5%	4.47	5.02	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	56	240	71	21	8	0%	1.6	29.6%	8.8%	20.8%	3.3%	4.47	3.54	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	37	0	40	176	42	30	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	19.6%	-1.2%	1.5%	4.05	4.87	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	37	0	40	176	42	30	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	19.6%	-1.2%	1.5%	4.05	4.87	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	37	0	40	176	42	30	2	0%	1.1	23.9%	17.0%	6.8%	1.1%	4.05	3.90	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	42	0	42	205	43	51	5	0%	1.0	14.8%	30.5%	-15.6%	3.8%	7.87	7.77	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	42	0	42	205	43	51	5	0%	1.0	14.8%	30.5%	-15.6%	3.8%	7.87	7.77	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	WSH	8	0	9	39	11	7	0	0%	1.1	28.2%	17.9%	10.3%	0.0%	5.19	2.99	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	WSH	34	0	34	166	32	44	5	0%	1.0	19.3%	26.5%	-7.2%	3.0%	8.55	6.48	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	WSH	55	0	58	244	47	40	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	16.2%	3.2%	2.9%	5.58	5.51	-0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	55	0	58	244	49	38	7	0%	1.1	19.9%	15.6%	4.3%	2.9%	5.43	5.39	-0.5
2027	25	MLB CTX	WSH	24	0	25	106	21	17	3	0%	1.0	19.4%	16.2%	3.2%	2.9%	5.58	5.51	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	36	0	38	160	32	25	5	0%	1.1	19.9%	15.6%	4.3%	2.9%	5.43	5.39	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	267	53	42	8	0%	1.1	19.7%	15.9%	3.9%	2.9%	5.49	5.06	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	133	25	0%	1.1	19.7%	15.9%	3.9%	2.9%	5.49	5.06	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		117	0	141	632	121	125	21	0%	1.2	19.1%	19.7%	-0.6%	3.4%	5.37	5.83	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		166	0	200	899	172	177	30	0%	1.2	19.1%	19.7%	-0.6%	3.4%	5.37	5.83	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Boucher (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.85	18.6%	18.3%	3.0%	—	5.45	19.7%	3.8%	116	-0.40	—	—	—
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	90
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	88
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	88
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	87
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	86
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	85
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	85
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	84
Aroni Nina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.8%	20.5%	1.1%	.312	3.04	18.8%	8.7%	64	-1.86	2.68	115	83
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	83
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	83
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	83
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	83
Morgan McSweeney R 2022 · 5.16 FIP	24	SU	5.16	18.0%	13.9%	3.3%	.278	4.36	16.0%	6.0%	107	-0.80	3.20	213	82
Alec Hansen R 2019 · 5.74 FIP	24	SU	5.74	18.8%	19.8%	3.1%	.349	4.98	29.5%	-5.0%	22	-0.76	3.34	288	82
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	82
Will McAffer R 2021 · 6.40 FIP	24	SU	6.40	21.5%	24.2%	3.7%	.343	5.37	14.5%	-5.7%	33	-1.03	4.68	133	82
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	81
Luke Jackson R 2016 · 5.62 FIP	24	SU	5.62	19.5%	15.3%	4.1%	.327	3.21	25.8%	16.8%	210	-2.41	2.67	580	81
Miguel Rosario R 2017 · 4.83 FIP	24	SU	4.83	16.4%	18.6%	1.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	197	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	19.3%	16.7%	1.14	5.62
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99