Adam Boucher
P
Wilmington Blue Rocks
Age 24
RHP
6'5" / 235 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 150140vR 131
ERA5.83
FIP5.83
K%18.6%
BB%18.0%
K-BB%0.6%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Rays | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 45.5% | 27.3% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 2.72 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Rays | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 45.5% | 27.3% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 2.60 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 56 | 240 | 71 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.1% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 5.0% | 4.47 | 5.30 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 56 | 240 | 71 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.6 | 29.6% | 8.8% | 20.8% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 3.54 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 37 | 0 | 40 | 176 | 42 | 30 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 19.6% | -1.2% | 1.6% | 4.05 | 4.94 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 37 | 0 | 40 | 176 | 42 | 30 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 17.0% | 6.8% | 1.1% | 4.05 | 3.90 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 28 | 0 | 30 | 143 | 28 | 37 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.1% | 29.8% | -14.7% | 4.4% | 7.89 | 7.99 | -1.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 45 | 43 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 18.0% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 5.83 | 5.83 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.6% | 18.0% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 5.83 | 5.83 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 87 | 384 | 73 | 80 | 12 | — | — | 19.0% | 20.9% | -2.0% | 3.2% | 6.53 | 6.57 | -1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 18.6% | 18.0% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 5.83 | 5.45 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 47 | 39 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 16.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 5.57 | 5.49 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 49 | 38 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 15.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 5.42 | 5.38 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 48 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 15.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 5.37 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 21 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 16.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 5.57 | 5.49 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 32 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 15.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 5.42 | 5.38 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 37 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 15.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 5.37 | 5.37 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 102 | 0 | 108 | 454 | 90 | 70 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 15.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 5.44 | 5.02 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 167 | 130 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 15.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 5.44 | 5.02 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 103 | 0 | 128 | 570 | 112 | 105 | 21 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.6% | 18.4% | 1.3% | 3.7% | 5.13 | 5.81 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 161 | 0 | 200 | 891 | 175 | 164 | 33 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.6% | 18.4% | 1.3% | 3.7% | 5.13 | 5.81 | -1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adam Boucher (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.83 | 18.6% | 18.0% | 3.0% | — | 5.41 | 19.8% | 4.3% | 172 | -0.42 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.61 | 21.4% | 22.3% | 2.7% | .278 | 5.16 | 19.4% | 2.8% | 102 | -0.45 | 3.73 | 203 | 89 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.92 | 19.6% | 18.4% | 2.1% | .305 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 184 | -0.36 | 3.34 | 334 | 89 |
| Josh Harlow R 2026 · 5.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.71 | 17.1% | 21.3% | 2.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.52 | 107 | 88 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.62 | 17.4% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .263 | 4.25 | 18.6% | 4.4% | 59 | -1.37 | 3.67 | 108 | 87 |
| Jacob Morris R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.72 | 18.0% | 19.6% | 3.0% | .218 | 4.72 | 18.7% | -2.4% | 46 | -1.00 | 4.72 | 102 | 87 |
| CJ Weins R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.54 | 17.8% | 23.0% | 1.9% | .302 | 5.65 | 15.5% | 0.6% | 32 | +0.11 | 4.42 | 113 | 86 |
| Zane Russell R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.19 | 22.7% | 18.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 5.10 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 71 | -0.09 | 4.28 | 108 | 86 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 86 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 85 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.27 | 15.5% | 17.2% | 2.4% | .237 | 5.45 | 13.6% | -1.7% | 68 | +0.18 | 5.27 | 124 | 85 |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.36 | 17.8% | 19.9% | 2.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 103 | 84 |
| Jonathan Teaney R 2025 · 6.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.06 | 16.4% | 15.7% | 4.3% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 108 | 84 |
| Tyler Bradt R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.09 | 19.0% | 18.7% | 2.2% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 135 | 84 |
| Aroni Nina R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 16.8% | 20.5% | 1.3% | .312 | 3.06 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 64 | -1.94 | 2.68 | 115 | 84 |
| Everhett Hazelwood R 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.67 | 19.0% | 15.4% | 4.0% | .343 | 10.98 | 17.5% | 0.6% | 14 | +5.31 | 5.32 | 117 | 84 |
| Billy Seidl R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.87 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 84 |
| Tommy DeJuneas R 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.09 | 20.8% | 18.8% | 2.5% | .324 | 5.52 | 13.7% | -3.9% | 51 | +0.43 | 3.90 | 178 | 84 |
| Kris Hall R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.65 | 18.3% | 17.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 7.02 | 12.7% | -7.8% | 34 | +2.37 | 4.65 | 106 | 84 |
| Yordy Cabrera R 2027 · 5.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.43 | 15.8% | 17.2% | 2.7% | .321 | 4.31 | 13.7% | 2.7% | 140 | -1.12 | 3.48 | 159 | 83 |
| Sal Biasi R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.19 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.3% | .295 | 7.85 | 15.3% | -0.2% | 23 | +2.66 | 4.68 | 188 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 57 | 19.5% | 16.1% | 1.16 | 5.55 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |