Zachary Cawyer
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 90 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112103vR 94
ERA4.07
FIP4.07
K%24.9%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%16.0%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 133 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 8 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.3% | 8.7% | 19.6% | 0.0% | 4.22 | 1.81 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 8 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.3% | 8.7% | 19.6% | 0.0% | 4.22 | 1.79 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 58 | 254 | 78 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.4% | 9.9% | 14.5% | 2.1% | 3.41 | 3.47 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 58 | 254 | 78 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.7% | 9.8% | 20.9% | 1.6% | 3.41 | 2.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 33 | 0 | 43 | 205 | 57 | 25 | 12 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.5% | 13.4% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.33 | 6.75 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | KC | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 95 | 34 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 9.0% | 16.0% | 2.8% | 4.07 | 4.07 | +1.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | KC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 9.0% | 16.0% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 4.02 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | KC | — | — | 133 | 585 | 152 | 59 | 23 | — | — | 25.9% | 10.1% | 15.9% | 3.9% | 5.12 | 4.94 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | KC | — | — | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 24.9% | 9.0% | 16.0% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 3.64 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | KC | 88 | 0 | 92 | 389 | 98 | 32 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 8.2% | 17.0% | 2.8% | 4.01 | 3.95 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | KC | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 100 | 31 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 7.8% | 17.5% | 2.8% | 3.95 | 3.89 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | KC | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 100 | 31 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 7.8% | 17.6% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 3.88 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | KC | 88 | 0 | 92 | 388 | 98 | 31 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 7.9% | 17.4% | 2.9% | 3.93 | 3.93 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | KC | 85 | 0 | 89 | 377 | 95 | 30 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 8.0% | 17.1% | 3.0% | 3.98 | 4.01 | +1.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | KC | 81 | 0 | 85 | 360 | 90 | 30 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 8.2% | 16.7% | 3.1% | 4.08 | 4.14 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | KC | 76 | 0 | 80 | 338 | 83 | 29 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 8.5% | 16.0% | 3.3% | 4.22 | 4.32 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | KC | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 43 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.2% | 8.2% | 17.0% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 3.90 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | KC | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 66 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 7.8% | 17.5% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 3.84 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | KC | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 79 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 7.8% | 17.6% | 2.7% | 3.87 | 3.83 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | KC | 75 | 0 | 79 | 334 | 84 | 26 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 7.9% | 17.4% | 2.8% | 3.88 | 3.88 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | KC | 75 | 0 | 79 | 334 | 84 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.2% | 8.0% | 17.1% | 2.9% | 3.93 | 3.96 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | KC | 73 | 0 | 77 | 325 | 81 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 8.2% | 16.7% | 3.0% | 4.02 | 4.08 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | KC | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 77 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 8.5% | 16.0% | 3.2% | 4.16 | 4.26 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 465 | 0 | 488 | 2062 | 518 | 167 | 60 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 8.1% | 17.0% | 2.9% | 3.96 | 3.59 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 212 | 68 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 8.1% | 17.0% | 2.9% | 3.96 | 3.59 | +4.2 | ||
| Career | — | 82 | 0 | 112 | 505 | 121 | 57 | 20 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 3.9% | 5.00 | 4.65 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 147 | 0 | 200 | 904 | 217 | 102 | 35 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 3.9% | 5.00 | 4.65 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zachary Cawyer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.07 | 24.9% | 9.0% | 2.8% | — | 3.91 | 25.3% | 17.4% | 279 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Breckin Williams R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .282 | 2.79 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.95 | 2.72 | 107 | 86 |
| Lucas Wepf R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.68 | 27.6% | 10.7% | 2.8% | .323 | 3.88 | 26.5% | 15.2% | 118 | +0.20 | 2.90 | 176 | 86 |
| Ronnie Muck R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.36 | 22.1% | 8.7% | 1.9% | .316 | 4.77 | 15.0% | 0.3% | 75 | +1.41 | 3.36 | 137 | 86 |
| Randall Delgado R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .284 | 3.71 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | +0.14 | 3.05 | 290 | 86 |
| Josh Martin R 2028 · 3.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.43 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .257 | 2.89 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.54 | 2.31 | 225 | 86 |
| Joshua Loeschorn R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .272 | 4.60 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 67 | +0.86 | 3.04 | 135 | 85 |
| Steven Wilson R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.13 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .271 | 3.80 | 29.3% | 19.9% | 92 | -0.33 | 3.36 | 311 | 85 |
| Nick Rumbelow R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.43 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 2.7% | .295 | 3.60 | 24.8% | 16.4% | 64 | +0.17 | 2.03 | 164 | 85 |
| Alex Phillips R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.23 | 3.26 | 139 | 85 |
| Ian Gardeck R 2027 · 2.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.91 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 1.3% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 105 | 85 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2027 · 3.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.31 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .262 | 6.15 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.84 | 3.31 | 207 | 85 |
| Darin Gillies R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.28 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 3.6% | .236 | 4.87 | 20.1% | 10.1% | 183 | +0.59 | 4.20 | 295 | 85 |
| Carlos Navas R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.59 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.63 | 22.0% | 16.1% | 229 | +0.04 | 2.94 | 385 | 84 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.52 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 1.9% | .284 | 4.50 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 167 | +0.98 | 2.65 | 304 | 84 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 83 |
| Eric Orze R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 26.9% | 7.6% | 3.2% | .284 | 4.27 | 27.8% | 15.6% | 170 | +0.74 | 3.06 | 331 | 83 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2027 · 3.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.17 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.68 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 95 | +0.51 | 3.17 | 153 | 83 |
| Bear Bellomy R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 23.1% | 6.9% | 3.9% | .274 | 5.47 | 15.0% | 8.2% | 72 | +1.31 | 4.16 | 139 | 83 |
| Trent Harris R 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.45 | 26.9% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .258 | 4.07 | 22.8% | 13.3% | 87 | +0.62 | 3.45 | 163 | 83 |
| Matt Jachec R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.29 | 25.8% | 6.8% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.71 | 22.0% | 13.4% | 48 | +0.42 | 3.29 | 120 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 89 | 25.1% | 8.2% | 1.14 | 4.02 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Mike Clevinger ('23) | 7 | 113 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 1.07 | 3.45 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Kenta Maeda ('24) | 8 | 122 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 1.30 | 4.17 |