Zachary Cawyer — OGILVIE

Zachary Cawyer P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.4 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.10

FIP4.10

K%24.9%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%15.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD6060

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	8	0	11	46	13	4	0	0%	1.3	28.3%	8.7%	19.6%	0.0%	4.22	1.81	—
2024	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	8	0	11	46	13	4	0	0%	1.3	28.3%	8.7%	19.6%	0.0%	4.22	1.81	—
2024	21	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	8	0	11	46	13	4	0	0%	1.3	28.3%	8.7%	19.6%	0.0%	4.22	1.79	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	58	254	78	25	4	0%	1.4	24.4%	9.9%	14.5%	2.1%	3.41	3.45	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	58	254	78	25	4	0%	1.4	24.4%	9.9%	14.5%	2.1%	3.41	3.45	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	58	254	78	25	4	0%	1.4	30.7%	9.8%	20.9%	1.6%	3.41	2.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	51	0	62	299	71	34	16	0%	1.2	19.2%	12.5%	6.7%	6.4%	6.53	6.58	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	51	0	62	299	71	34	16	0%	1.2	19.2%	12.5%	6.7%	6.4%	6.53	6.58	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	KC	51	0	62	299	71	34	16	0%	1.2	23.7%	11.4%	12.4%	5.4%	6.53	5.47	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	KC	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	24.9%	9.2%	15.8%	2.8%	4.10	4.10	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	68	324	77	36	17	—	—	23.8%	11.2%	12.6%	5.2%	6.32	6.37	-1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	KC	88	0	92	389	98	33	11	0%	1.0	25.2%	8.4%	16.8%	2.8%	4.03	3.97	+0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	89	0	93	394	100	31	11	0%	1.0	25.4%	8.0%	17.4%	2.8%	3.96	3.90	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	89	0	93	394	100	31	11	0%	1.0	25.4%	7.9%	17.5%	2.8%	3.93	3.90	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	88	0	92	388	98	31	11	0%	1.0	25.3%	8.0%	17.3%	2.9%	3.94	3.94	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	85	0	89	377	95	31	11	0%	1.0	25.2%	8.1%	17.0%	3.0%	3.99	4.03	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	81	0	85	360	90	30	11	0%	1.1	24.9%	8.4%	16.6%	3.1%	4.09	4.16	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	76	0	80	338	83	29	11	0%	1.1	24.6%	8.7%	15.9%	3.3%	4.24	4.34	+0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	KC	38	0	40	169	43	14	4	0%	1.1	25.2%	8.4%	16.8%	2.6%	3.91	3.85	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	59	0	62	262	66	21	7	0%	1.1	25.4%	8.0%	17.4%	2.6%	3.84	3.78	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	70	0	74	312	79	25	8	0%	1.1	25.4%	7.9%	17.5%	2.6%	3.81	3.78	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	75	0	79	334	84	27	9	0%	1.1	25.3%	8.0%	17.3%	2.7%	3.82	3.82	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	75	0	79	334	84	27	9	0%	1.1	25.2%	8.1%	17.0%	2.8%	3.87	3.91	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	73	0	77	325	81	27	9	0%	1.1	24.9%	8.4%	16.6%	2.9%	3.96	4.03	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	70	0	74	312	77	27	10	0%	1.1	24.6%	8.7%	15.9%	3.1%	4.10	4.20	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		464	0	487	2055	516	169	57	0%	1.0	25.1%	8.2%	16.9%	2.8%	3.90	3.54	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	212	69	23	0%	1.1	25.1%	8.2%	16.9%	2.8%	3.90	3.54	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		100	0	131	599	132	67	25	0%	1.3	22.1%	11.1%	11.0%	4.1%	4.96	4.89	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	0	200	917	203	102	38	0%	1.3	22.1%	11.1%	11.0%	4.1%	4.96	4.89	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zachary Cawyer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.10	24.9%	9.2%	2.8%	—	3.92	25.3%	17.2%	279	-0.18	—	—	—
Randall Delgado R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	25	SU	3.61	23.7%	10.1%	2.2%	.284	3.78	20.3%	12.4%	167	+0.17	3.09	290	87
Lucas Wepf R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	27.6%	10.7%	2.7%	.323	3.97	26.2%	13.8%	136	+0.35	2.90	195	87
Alex Cook R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	22	SU	4.04	26.1%	10.8%	3.2%	.266	3.76	21.7%	13.9%	96	-0.28	2.93	162	86
Steven Wilson R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	27.2%	10.7%	3.3%	.271	3.81	29.3%	19.9%	92	-0.18	3.64	328	86
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	86
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	85
Ian Gardeck R 2015 · 2.93 FIP	24	SU	2.93	22.4%	7.7%	1.4%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	105	85
Ronnie Muck R 2015 · 3.24 FIP	23	SU	3.24	22.1%	8.7%	1.7%	.316	4.63	15.0%	0.3%	75	+1.39	3.24	137	85
Alex Phillips R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	24	SU	3.26	22.0%	8.0%	1.8%	.263	4.62	23.2%	14.6%	72	+1.36	3.26	139	85
Darin Gillies R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	23	SU	4.22	22.0%	8.2%	3.5%	.236	4.71	20.1%	10.1%	183	+0.49	4.22	295	85
Johnny Barbato R 2015 · 3.57 FIP	23	SU	3.57	21.3%	9.4%	2.0%	.284	4.32	21.6%	11.4%	167	+0.75	2.59	304	85
Nick Rumbelow R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	23	SU	3.28	22.6%	6.1%	2.4%	.295	3.54	24.8%	16.4%	64	+0.26	2.03	164	85
Josh Martin R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	25	SU	3.16	24.1%	7.4%	2.1%	.257	2.96	20.7%	13.6%	124	-0.20	2.41	225	84
Carlos Navas R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	23	SU	3.67	22.0%	8.4%	2.5%	.283	3.52	22.0%	16.1%	229	-0.15	2.98	385	84
Joshua Loeschorn R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	24.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.272	4.43	17.1%	8.4%	83	+0.57	3.08	151	84
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	84
Dakota Donovan R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	24	SU	3.15	22.2%	8.4%	1.6%	.310	3.55	20.3%	8.9%	95	+0.40	3.15	153	83
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	83
Eric Orze R 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SU	3.47	26.9%	7.6%	3.1%	.284	4.24	26.7%	15.9%	170	+0.77	3.42	351	83
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	89	25.1%	8.3%	1.14	4.03
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01