Zachary Cawyer
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
+0.5
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.6 · 2028
ERA4.23
FIP4.23
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.7%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%14.3%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2028
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 8 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 13 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.22 | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 41 | 0 | 58 | 254 | 78 | 25 | 4 | 24.4% | 9.9% | 2.1% | 3.41 | 3.44 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 6 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 10 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.68 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | KC | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 56 | 22 | 7 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | KC | — | — | 63 | 266 | 66 | 27 | 8 | 24.8% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 3.74 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | KC | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 59 | 22 | 7 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | KC | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 60 | 22 | 7 | 24.6% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.12 | 4.07 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | KC | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 61 | 22 | 7 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 4.06 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | KC | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 60 | 22 | 7 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.09 | 4.08 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | KC | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 59 | 21 | 7 | 24.6% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.11 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | KC | 56 | — | 56 | 234 | 57 | 21 | 7 | 24.5% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | KC | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 55 | 21 | 7 | 24.3% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.21 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | KC | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 53 | 20 | 7 | 24.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.25 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | KC | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 50 | 20 | 7 | 23.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | KC | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 47 | 19 | 6 | 23.5% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | KC | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | KC | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 41 | 18 | 6 | 22.8% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | KC | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 38 | 17 | 6 | 22.3% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.76 | 4.84 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 55 | 0 | 76 | 330 | 85 | 34 | 6 | 25.7% | 10.4% | 1.9% | 3.55 | 3.29 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 145 | 0 | 200 | 868 | 224 | 89 | 16 | 25.7% | 10.4% | 1.9% | 3.55 | 3.29 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zachary Cawyer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.23 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.09 | 24.5% | 15.6% | 174 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.90 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 167 | -0.40 | 3.06 | 230 | 93 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.49 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .262 | 6.13 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.64 | 3.49 | 207 | 92 |
| Parker Curry R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.75 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .341 | 4.60 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 193 | +0.85 | 3.75 | 256 | 91 |
| Breckin Williams R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.63 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .282 | 2.78 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.85 | 2.77 | 107 | 91 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .293 | 4.53 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.82 | 2.08 | 276 | 91 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.03 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .329 | 3.52 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.51 | 2.48 | 281 | 91 |
| Carlos Navas R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.64 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.0% | 16.1% | 229 | -0.12 | 2.94 | 385 | 91 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.23 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | .312 | 5.10 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +0.87 | 4.23 | 152 | 90 |
| Lucas Wepf R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.65 | 27.6% | 10.7% | 2.8% | .323 | 3.49 | 26.5% | 14.2% | 85 | -0.16 | 2.90 | 144 | 89 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.84 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .344 | 4.99 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.15 | 3.63 | 386 | 89 |
| Alex Klonowski R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.58 | 21.8% | 9.4% | 2.1% | .331 | 4.70 | 14.3% | 7.1% | 413 | +1.12 | 3.58 | 539 | 89 |
| Ronnie Muck R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.21 | 22.1% | 8.7% | 1.6% | .316 | 4.64 | 15.0% | 0.3% | 75 | +1.43 | 3.21 | 137 | 88 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2027 · 3.16 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.16 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.57 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 95 | +0.41 | 3.16 | 153 | 88 |
| Darin Gillies R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.23 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 3.6% | .236 | 4.71 | 20.1% | 10.1% | 183 | +0.48 | 4.22 | 295 | 88 |
| Alex Phillips R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.34 | 3.26 | 139 | 88 |
| Randall Delgado R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 88 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.59 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.24 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 167 | +0.65 | 2.57 | 304 | 88 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.87 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 95 | +0.85 | 4.02 | 158 | 88 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .353 | 4.76 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.72 | 4.04 | 106 | 88 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.36 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 1.7% | .281 | 7.73 | 12.4% | 2.7% | 52 | +4.37 | 3.36 | 191 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $8M | $14M | +$6M | ||