Jalvin Arias

OF FCL Phillies

Age 20 R/R 6'2" / 230 lbs ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKDSL Phillies …	125	.210/.331/.248	0	7	10	—	.127/.226/.155
2026	19	ROKPHI	92	.139/.244/.215	1	0	-20	—	.098/.178/.171
2027PROJ0% MLB	20	MLBPHI	202	.174/.247/.243	2	3	40	-0.4
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBPHI	58	.181/.254/.261	1	1	46	-0.3

Next 2 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

ISO28

Chase%15

BB%14

Speed12

Z-Con%8

K%4

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsGeorge Feliz (age 20) · Arturo Guerrero (age 20) · Benyamin Bailey (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 81 proj PA

wRC+†40

AVG/OBP/SLG.172 / .245 / .241

PA81

HR1

K%34

BB%8

ISO69

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE56

scouting grade only

SPEED53

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	—	56	43	10	0	0	2	12	20	1	1	2	233	411	372	783	140	381	36	21	366	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	—	125	105	22	2	1	0	18	34	1	7	5	210	331	248	578	38	306	27	14	277	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	92	79	11	1	1	1	9	34	2	0	0	139	244	215	460	76	217	37	10	217	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	56	46	7	0	0	1	9	25	1	1	2	152	304	217	521	65	272	45	16	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	125	110	14	1	1	0	13	42	1	7	5	127	226	155	380	27	200	34	10	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	92	82	8	1	1	1	6	49	2	0	0	98	178	171	349	73	173	53	7	138	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	56	46	7	0	0	1	9	25	1	1	2	152	304	217	521	65	300	45	16	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	—	56	43	10	0	0	2	12	20	1	1	2	233	411	372	783	140	381	36	21	366	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	125	110	14	1	1	0	13	42	1	7	5	127	226	155	380	27	203	34	10	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	—	125	105	22	2	1	0	18	34	1	7	5	210	331	248	578	38	306	27	14	277	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	92	82	8	1	1	1	6	49	2	0	0	98	178	171	349	73	206	53	7	138	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	—	92	79	11	1	1	1	9	34	2	0	0	139	244	215	460	76	217	37	10	217	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	56	46	7	0	0	1	9	25	1	1	2	152	304	217	521	65	272	45	16	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	125	110	14	1	1	0	13	42	1	7	5	127	226	155	380	27	200	34	10	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	92	84	8	1	1	1	6	49	2	0	0	95	178	167	344	71	173	53	7	138	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	56	46	7	0	0	1	9	25	1	1	2	152	304	217	521	65	272	45	16	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	125	110	14	1	1	0	13	42	1	7	5	127	226	155	380	27	200	34	10	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	92	84	8	1	1	1	6	49	2	0	0	95	178	167	344	71	173	53	7	138	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	PHI	0%	202	182	32	5	1	2	16	69	2	3	1	174	247	243	490	69	263	34	8	228	40	-14	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	PHI	34%	169	152	27	4	1	2	13	56	2	3	1	180	254	258	512	79	266	33	8	236	46	-11	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.8
2028	21	MLB CTX	PHI	34%	58	52	9	1	0	1	5	19	1	1	0	181	254	261	516	81	266	33	9	238	46	-4	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	58	52	9	1	0	1	5	19	1	1	0	173	259	250	509	77	250	33	9	238	25	-4	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	100	11	0	11	56	213	11	11	0	172	257	247	504	75	248	33	9	238	25	-42	+2	+0	-4	+14	-3.0
Career	—	MLE		—	523	464	70	8	4	5	47	200	7	12	8	151	239	218	457	67	247	38	9	205	25	-17	+0	+0	-2	+5	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	87	10	5	6	58	249	9	15	10	151	239	217	456	66	248	38	9	205	25	-43	+1	+0	-4	+14	-3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jalvin Arias (OGILVIE)	20	20→25	30→35	48→53	56	172/245/241	69	263	1	1	34%	8%	40	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕George Feliz 2023 · A	20	34	39→45	54→45	38	169/229/251	81	271	6	13	38%	7%	36	-3.4	173/235/269	96	305	10	11	44%	6%	42	-2.9	160/223/268	108	267	13	9	43%	6%	36	-1.2
✕Arturo Guerrero 2021 · A	20	37	38→30	52→50	40	178/273/258	80	272	6	9	34%	7%	56	-1.9	177/253/265	88	320	6	11	44%	6%	49	-2.4	137/218/227	89	269	7	13	48%	6%	27	-0.9
✕Benyamin Bailey 2022 · A	20	37	38→30	49→45	44	178/259/249	70	285	6	6	37%	9%	47	-2.5	184/257/264	80	305	7	4	38%	8%	49	-2.4	158/241/227	70	258	7	0	38%	9%	36	-1.9
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A	20	36	39→40	51→50	40	181/244/269	88	257	7	13	31%	6%	46	-2.6	196/262/273	77	311	7	10	36%	7%	53	-2.1	190/263/263	73	291	8	10	35%	7%	49	-1.2
✕Rafael Rincones 2019 · A	20	38	37→30	48→45	41	180/256/255	75	282	5	8	35%	8%	47	-2.5	196/266/270	74	308	5	6	35%	7%	54	-2.0	177/256/229	51	276	4	4	34%	8%	41	-1.1
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	36→30	38→45	50	43	177/250/254	77	257	5	13	32%	7%	45	-2.7	207/272/309	102	322	8	15	36%	7%	65	-1.2	191/253/307	116	283	12	16	35%	6%	55	-0.9
✕Carlos Pacheco 2019 · A	20	33	38→40	45→50	42	164/238/238	74	255	6	9	36%	8%	36	-3.3	186/243/271	85	320	7	9	41%	7%	45	-2.7	155/211/244	89	272	9	10	44%	6%	26	-1.3
✕Yimmelvyn Alonzo 2017 · A	20	36	37→40	49→45	43	173/253/246	74	264	3	8	33%	8%	45	-2.7	180/276/269	89	275	5	8	33%	11%	59	-1.7	115/253/214	98	170	6	9	32%	14%	38	-1.0
✕Lizandro Espinoza 2023 · A	20	37→24	37→45	51→60	38	178/236/254	76	272	4	10	34%	6%	38	-3.2	159/221/246	87	248	8	13	37%	6%	32	-3.7	159/229/271	111	233	12	30	36%	7%	39	-1.8
✕Yeuris Ramirez 2019 · A	20	32	38→40	47→50	42	158/250/236	79	240	5	8	34%	8%	42	-2.9	190/270/285	95	312	8	13	39%	7%	60	-1.6	159/240/237	78	323	8	23	49%	7%	35	-1.2
✕Elisandro Alcantara 2023 · A	20	37	38→40	50	40	173/255/253	80	288	5	10	38%	8%	47	-2.5	202/267/280	78	292	4	11	30%	7%	57	-1.8	212/269/270	57	274	0	21	21%	6%	52	-0.4
✕Sandy Brito 2013 · A	20	35	38→40	52→45	55	165/282/252	87	263	4	8	34%	14%	58	-1.7	174/253/256	82	319	5	8	42%	9%	47	-2.6	92/159/154	62	206	5	8	54%	7%	-14	-1.7
✕Hector Martinez 2018 · A	20	37	37→40	48→50	42	176/262/242	66	284	5	9	37%	8%	47	-2.5	183/257/259	76	345	5	8	44%	8%	49	-2.4	116/197/174	58	254	5	9	52%	8%	7	-1.3
✕Misael Urbina 2022 · A	20	37→32	39→40	51→50	49	180/260/269	89	230	6	13	24%	8%	53	-2.1	179/254/271	92	260	6	10	31%	8%	50	-2.3	166/253/247	81	240	5	8	30%	10%	42	-1.7
✕Alexander Benua 2024 · A	20	39	36→40	51→55	40	184/255/252	68	275	4	16	32%	6%	47	-2.6	198/262/288	90	311	7	11	36%	7%	57	-1.8	183/250/274	91	292	7	12	37%	7%	49	-0.9
✕Neyfy Castillo 2021 · A	20	39→33	37→45	54→55	39	187/245/260	73	279	3	11	32%	6%	43	-2.8	186/260/317	131	336	16	16	46%	8%	63	-1.3	173/250/304	131	303	16	19	45%	8%	53	-1.4
✕Ranfy Adon 2018 · A	20	37	38→40	51→50	39	181/241/260	79	271	5	12	33%	6%	42	-2.9	207/250/315	108	356	9	11	42%	5%	58	-1.7	174/232/277	104	321	9	25	46%	5%	41	-0.7
✕Anyelo Encarnación 2024 · A	20	41→36	38→40	54→50	49	188/284/272	84	293	5	14	34%	11%	62	-1.4	183/267/272	89	313	8	14	40%	9%	56	-1.9	171/261/262	92	293	9	17	41%	10%	49	-1.4
✕Simon Juan 2024 · A	19	35	37→45	50	38	171/231/239	68	259	4	10	34%	6%	34	-3.5	191/240/292	101	298	10	9	37%	5%	49	-2.4	180/226/285	105	283	12	10	39%	5%	39	-1.5
✕Omar Meregildo 2018 · A	20	35→31	36→50	47→30	41	172/239/241	69	258	3	6	33%	7%	38	-3.2	197/255/307	110	316	10	3	38%	7%	59	-1.7	174/242/299	125	281	15	1	41%	7%	50	-1.2