Juan Duran (P, DSL Orioles Black) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Juan Duran P DSL Orioles Black

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%21.9%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	10	5	25	114	31	18	1	50%	2.5	18.5%	19.7%	-1.2%	1.4%	5.47	4.81	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	10	5	25	114	31	18	1	50%	2.5	18.5%	19.7%	-1.2%	1.4%	5.47	4.81	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	10	5	25	114	31	18	1	50%	2.5	27.2%	15.8%	11.4%	0.9%	5.47	3.30	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	17	0	25	106	25	15	0	0%	1.5	16.0%	17.7%	-1.7%	0.0%	2.92	3.99	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	17	0	25	106	25	15	0	0%	1.5	16.0%	17.7%	-1.7%	0.0%	2.92	3.99	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	17	0	25	106	25	15	0	0%	1.5	23.6%	14.2%	9.4%	0.0%	2.92	2.90	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.9%	14.6%	7.3%	2.9%	5.10	5.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BAL	22	0	23	97	22	12	3	0%	1.0	22.8%	12.8%	10.0%	2.9%	4.87	4.77	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	BAL	10	0	11	46	11	6	1	0%	1.1	22.8%	12.8%	10.0%	2.9%	4.87	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	48	11	6	1	0%	1.0	22.8%	12.8%	10.0%	2.9%	4.87	4.39	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	195	106	18	0%	1.1	22.8%	12.8%	10.0%	2.9%	4.87	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		27	5	49	220	38	41	2	19%	1.8	17.3%	18.8%	-1.4%	0.7%	4.20	4.41	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	20	200	892	154	167	6	19%	1.8	17.3%	18.8%	-1.4%	0.7%	4.20	4.41	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Duran (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	21.9%	14.6%	2.9%	—	4.77	22.8%	10.0%	23	-0.33	—	—	—
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	87
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	86
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	85
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	85
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	85
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	84
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	84
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	84
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	83
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	83
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	83
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	82
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	82
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	82
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	82
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	82
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	82
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	81
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	81
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	81