Nick Mitchell

CF Harrisburg Senators

Age 23 L/R 5'10" / 185 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #850MiLBFA 2034

ETA2029FG ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	A+CLE	166	.267/.389/.422	2	8	88	—	.232/.327/.373
2025	21	ALynchburg Hil…	169	.255/.371/.305	0	21	63	—	.223/.311/.270
2026	22	AAWSH	462	.261/.362/.362	6	24	88	—	.255/.332/.343
2027PROJ2% MLB	23	MLBWSH	6	.221/.302/.306	0	0	76	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	24	MLBWSH	149	.226/.307/.323	2	5	82	0.1
2029PROJ45% MLB	25	MLBWSH	227	.229/.309/.334	4	8	85	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Z-Con%89

Whiff%88

K%86

Speed73

BB%69

Chase%69

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 9, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 80%

CompsJavi Vaz (age 23) · Hoy Park (age 23) · Leon Johnson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .302 / .306

PA6

HR0

K%17

BB%17

BABIP272

ISO85

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	103	90	26	2	1	4	7	20	3	3	0	289	360	467	827	178	319	19	7	357	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Lake County Captains	—	166	135	36	5	5	2	25	28	2	8	1	267	389	422	811	156	312	17	15	357	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	169	141	36	3	2	0	24	21	2	21	2	255	371	305	676	50	295	12	14	316	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	30	24	10	1	0	0	5	3	1	1	2	417	533	458	992	42	476	10	17	455	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	462	395	103	16	3	6	57	80	6	24	6	261	362	362	724	101	312	17	12	330	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	103	92	24	2	1	3	5	26	3	3	0	261	320	402	722	141	293	25	5	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	166	142	33	4	5	2	18	35	2	8	1	232	327	373	700	141	267	21	11	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	169	148	33	3	2	0	17	29	2	21	2	223	311	270	582	47	264	17	10	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	30	26	9	1	0	0	3	4	1	1	2	346	433	385	818	38	382	13	10	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	462	411	105	15	3	5	41	97	6	24	6	255	332	343	675	88	316	21	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	103	92	24	2	1	3	5	26	3	3	0	261	320	402	722	141	318	25	5	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	103	90	26	2	1	4	7	20	3	3	0	289	360	467	827	178	319	19	7	357	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	365	316	73	7	6	2	38	68	5	30	5	231	323	310	633	79	282	19	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	3 teams	—	365	300	82	9	7	2	54	52	5	30	5	273	393	370	763	97	317	14	15	346	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	462	411	105	15	3	5	41	97	6	24	6	255	332	343	675	88	322	21	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	—	462	395	103	16	3	6	57	80	6	24	6	261	362	362	724	101	312	17	12	330	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	103	94	24	2	1	3	5	26	3	3	0	255	320	394	714	138	293	25	5	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	365	319	73	7	6	2	38	68	5	30	5	229	323	307	630	78	275	19	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	462	412	105	15	3	5	41	97	6	24	6	255	332	342	674	87	316	21	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	103	94	24	2	1	3	5	26	3	3	0	255	320	394	714	138	293	25	5	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	365	319	73	7	6	2	38	68	5	30	5	229	323	307	630	78	275	19	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	462	412	105	15	3	5	41	97	6	24	6	255	332	342	674	87	316	21	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	WSH	2%	530	471	105	16	4	6	48	106	6	19	4	223	303	310	613	87	273	20	9	280	76	-15	+2	-1	+2	+11	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	WSH	2%	6	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	221	302	306	608	84	272	17	17	279	76	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	WSH	31%	482	430	98	15	4	7	44	96	5	17	4	227	308	327	634	100	275	20	9	289	82	-11	+2	+0	+2	+10	0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	WSH	45%	510	452	104	16	4	8	47	102	6	18	4	230	310	337	647	107	276	20	9	294	85	-9	+2	+0	+2	+11	0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	WSH	51%	525	465	108	17	4	9	49	106	6	18	4	231	311	343	654	112	277	20	9	296	87	-8	+2	+0	+2	+11	0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	530	470	108	17	4	9	49	108	6	18	4	231	311	343	654	113	277	20	9	296	87	-8	+2	+0	+2	+11	0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	528	469	108	17	4	9	49	109	5	15	4	230	309	342	651	113	277	21	9	295	86	-9	+1	-1	+2	+11	0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	521	463	105	16	4	9	48	109	5	13	3	227	306	336	642	109	276	21	9	291	83	-10	+1	-1	+2	+11	0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	WSH	52%	511	455	102	16	3	8	46	109	5	10	3	224	303	328	630	104	274	21	9	287	80	-12	+1	-2	+2	+11	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	WSH	31%	149	132	30	5	1	2	14	30	2	5	1	226	307	323	630	97	274	20	9	287	82	-3	+1	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	WSH	45%	227	202	47	7	2	4	21	45	2	8	2	229	309	334	643	105	275	20	9	292	85	-4	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	WSH	51%	267	237	56	9	2	5	25	54	3	9	2	230	310	339	650	109	276	20	9	295	87	-4	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	278	247	57	9	2	5	26	57	3	9	2	230	310	340	650	111	276	21	9	295	87	-4	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	282	251	57	9	2	5	26	58	3	8	2	229	308	339	647	110	276	21	9	293	86	-5	+1	-0	+1	+6	0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	274	244	56	9	2	5	25	57	3	7	2	226	305	333	638	106	275	21	9	290	83	-5	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	WSH	52%	266	237	52	8	1	4	24	57	3	5	1	223	302	325	627	102	273	21	9	285	80	-6	+1	-1	+1	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1743	1550	355	56	12	30	161	358	19	51	12	229	309	339	648	110	278	21	9	291	84	-33	+5	-2	+6	+38	1.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	132	21	4	11	60	134	7	19	4	228	309	336	644	107	278	21	9	291	84	-12	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4857	4307	998	147	40	72	445	994	56	177	39	232	312	335	646	103	283	20	9	292	84	-77	+13	-5	+14	+85	3.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	134	20	5	10	60	133	7	24	5	233	312	337	649	104	284	20	9	292	84	-13	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Grégor Blancolast yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,301 PA	5.0	3,301	26	120	256	340	350	-9	-5	7.7	8.5
/162	664	5	24	-1.8	-1.0	1.5	pk7: 9
#2Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#3Billy Maloney'01-'08 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,762 PA	4.2	2,762	6	155	235*	299*	373*	+5	+9	6.9	6.9
/162	664	1	37	+1.1	+2.1	1.7	pk7: 7
#4Brian Hunter'94-'03 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,659 PA	5.5	3,659	25	260	252*	300*	337*	+1	+13	2.0	3.6
/162	664	5	47	+0.2	+2.4	0.4	pk7: 5
#5Luis Matos'00-'06 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,773 PA	2.7	1,773	30	72	245*	304*	365*	+1	+10	3.2	3.2
/162	664	11	27	+0.3	+3.9	1.2	pk7: 3
#6Ed Stroud'66-'71 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,500 PA	2.3	1,500	14	72	245*	312*	375*	-6	-0	2.5	2.5
/162	664	6	32	-2.7	-0.2	1.1	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.6	1,751	29	52	230	306	339	-10	+0	1.0	1.0
/162	664	11	20	-4.0	+0.0	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nick Mitchell (OGILVIE)	23	35→55	35	60	50	221/300/307	86	273	3	11	20%	9%	76	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Javi Vaz 2024 · AA	23	49→50	41→40	57→55	56	233/306/332	99	259	7	19	14%	9%	83	+0.1	221/297/309	88	250	7	19	14%	9%	74	-0.5	212/293/292	80	240	6	21	14%	9%	67	-0.7
✕Hoy Park 2019 · A	23	46→52	39→45	55	51	220/302/306	86	289	6	17	25%	10%	76	-0.4	234/313/331	97	308	7	16	24%	10%	85	+0.2	217/305/329	112	291	12	18	27%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Leon Johnson 2008 · A	23	48	40	58→60	50	227/300/324	96	299	6	22	24%	9%	78	-0.3	217/281/294	77	280	5	17	23%	7%	65	-1.2	198/260/219	21	246	0	22	18%	6%	36	-0.7
✕Forrest Wall 2019 · AA	23	45→55	41→45	53→70	42	219/277/317	98	300	8	23	29%	6%	68	-1.0	222/283/330	108	313	8	22	30%	7%	74	-0.6	250/321/350	101	344	8	50	27%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Kyle Mottice 2019 · A	23	49	35→30	58→55	54	226/330/288	62	269	2	18	15%	9%	84	+0.1	231/325/290	59	283	2	18	17%	8%	82	-0.0	240/333/283	43	295	0	25	16%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Yoyner Fajardo 2022 · A	23	50→58	37→40	53→60	45	235/296/315	80	307	4	22	24%	6%	75	-0.5	243/298/334	91	313	6	26	23%	7%	80	-0.2	260/318/350	90	329	5	34	21%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Hak-Ju Lee 2015 · AAA	24	46→56	39→40	54→55	47	222/282/306	84	293	6	21	26%	8%	68	-1.0	213/270/298	85	313	7	19	32%	7%	61	-1.5	206/261/278	72	312	5	22	34%	6%	51	-1.0
✕Andrew Aplin 2014 · A	23	46→56	42→40	52→55	53	222/289/333	111	253	9	14	16%	9%	77	-0.3	235/308/317	82	287	6	22	18%	10%	80	-0.1	233/308/303	70	291	5	27	20%	10%	75	-0.4
✕Nate Furman 2024 · A	23	51→56	34→40	57→55	56	232/325/284	52	281	1	24	17%	10%	80	-0.1	256/335/354	98	305	9	18	18%	9%	99	+1.2	273/347/381	108	317	11	17	16%	9%	106	+0.9
✕Chandler Simpson 2023 · A	22	48→58	38→30	56→70	48	226/293/312	85	299	4	17	24%	8%	73	-0.6	267/311/317	50	307	1	59	12%	6%	80	-0.2	302/334/348	46	335	0	63	9%	5%	94	+0.8
✕Ryan Rogowski 2007 · A	23	48→46	40	59→55	52	227/298/329	101	275	6	19	19%	8%	79	-0.2	218/286/306	88	272	4	26	20%	8%	70	-0.9	213/284/298	85	264	4	31	19%	8%	65	-1.0
✕Pin-Chieh Chen 2014 · AA	23	48→51	36→40	54→55	49	224/287/290	67	280	3	19	20%	8%	65	-1.2	227/287/309	82	279	3	15	19%	7%	70	-0.8	227/288/313	85	276	3	14	18%	7%	68	-0.6
✕Jacob Young 2022 · A	23	43→53	38→40	57→60	44	204/256/283	80	261	5	21	23%	6%	53	-2.1	240/302/316	76	303	4	31	20%	7%	77	-0.3	242/306/331	89	291	7	29	18%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Joe Lampe 2024 · A	23	43→48	38→45	56→55	48	206/282/288	82	270	5	16	24%	8%	64	-1.3	213/276/313	100	290	6	18	27%	7%	67	-1.1	210/271/314	104	289	7	21	28%	7%	62	-0.9
✕Rikuu Nishida 2024 · A	23	46→56	38→30	53→60	48	218/279/302	84	262	5	13	19%	7%	65	-1.2	264/346/313	49	324	2	27	17%	10%	94	+0.9	274/363/311	37	340	1	31	17%	11%	96	+0.9
●Tristan Peters 2023 · AA	23	48→53	43→50	53→50	49	229/296/351	122	291	8	14	23%	8%	83	+0.1	231/299/350	119	288	9	12	22%	8%	84	+0.2	233/307/367	134	284	11	9	21%	8%	90	+0.5
✕Raynel Delgado 2023 · AA	23	42→52	40	49→60	44	204/275/294	90	285	7	15	29%	7%	63	-1.4	234/300/330	96	324	8	23	28%	8%	80	-0.1	246/311/338	92	338	7	32	27%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Luis Barrera 2019 · AA	23	50→56	39→45	55→50	41	237/280/336	99	309	5	16	24%	5%	73	-0.6	239/282/347	108	311	6	15	24%	5%	76	-0.4	235/282/356	121	298	7	15	23%	6%	76	-0.3
✕Brad McElroy 2010 · A	24	45→55	40	55	50	213/297/308	96	282	7	18	25%	9%	75	-0.5	225/286/318	93	294	6	20	24%	7%	72	-0.7	227/284/313	86	294	5	23	23%	6%	67	-0.6
✕Tony Gwynn Jr. 2006 · AA	23	53→57	36→40	52→60	53	246/313/315	69	292	2	23	16%	8%	81	-0.1	253/303/322	69	312	3	25	19%	6%	78	-0.3	246/318/329	82	292	4	29	16%	9%	86	+0.2

Nick Mitchell

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps