Nick Mitchell — OGILVIE

Nick MitchellOF Akron RubberDucks

Age 22 L/R 5'10" / 185 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION274 act + 182 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .310 / .313

PA182

HR2

SB8

K%20

BB%10

BABIP271

ISO94

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$1.0M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	103	91	24	2	1	3	6	26	3	3	0	264	330	407	737	143	323	25	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	103	90	26	2	1	4	7	20	3	3	0	289	360	467	827	178	319	19	7	357	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	3 teams	—	365	317	70	7	6	2	37	71	5	30	5	221	312	300	612	79	272	19	10	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	3 teams	—	365	300	82	9	7	2	54	52	5	30	5	273	393	370	763	97	317	14	15	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	AA	CLE	—	274	240	51	7	2	4	30	58	2	15	3	212	305	308	613	96	264	21	11	272	66	-10	+2	+0	-2	+8	-0.3
YTD	22	AA	CLE	—	274	227	52	8	2	4	43	45	2	15	3	229	357	335	691	106	270	16	16	320	103	+1	+2	+0	-2	+8	0.9
ROS	22	AA	CLE	2%	182	159	35	5	2	2	19	37	2	8	1	219	310	313	623	94	263	20	10	280	72	-6	+1	-0	-1	+5	-0.1
ROS	22	MLB	CLE	2%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		263	25	0	273	67	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	22	AA	CLE	—	278	244	52	7	2	4	30	59	2	15	3	213	304	307	612	94	265	21	11	272	66	-11	+2	-0	-2	+8	-0.3
TOT	22	AA	CLE	—	456	399	86	12	4	6	49	95	4	23	4	215	307	310	617	95	267	21	11	275	69	-16	+3	-0	-3	+13	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	CLE	35%	451	399	88	13	4	7	45	90	4	17	3	221	306	326	632	105	266	20	10	290	80	-10	+2	-1	-3	+13	0.2
2028	24	MLB	CLE	47%	492	434	97	14	4	9	50	98	5	19	3	224	311	336	647	113	269	20	10	298	86	-8	+3	-1	-3	+14	0.5
2029	25	MLB	CLE	52%	513	451	102	15	4	10	52	102	5	20	4	226	313	344	657	118	270	20	10	301	89	-7	+2	-1	-3	+15	0.7
2030	26	MLB	CLE	54%	522	459	105	16	4	11	53	104	5	20	4	229	315	353	668	124	271	20	10	303	90	-6	+2	-1	-3	+15	0.7
2031	27	MLB	CLE	54%	524	460	105	16	4	11	54	105	5	20	4	228	316	352	668	124	270	20	10	303	90	-6	+2	-1	-3	+15	0.7
2027	23	MLB	CLE	35%	159	140	31	4	1	3	16	32	2	6	1	221	310	329	639	107	266	20	10	284	75	-4	+1	-0	-1	+5	-0.0
2028	24	MLB	CLE	47%	229	202	46	7	2	4	23	46	2	9	2	228	313	342	654	114	269	20	10	291	81	-5	+1	-0	-1	+6	0.1
2029	25	MLB	CLE	52%	266	234	53	8	2	5	27	53	3	10	2	226	314	342	656	115	271	20	10	294	83	-5	+1	-0	-2	+8	0.2
2030	26	MLB	CLE	54%	283	249	57	9	2	6	29	56	3	11	2	229	317	353	670	124	271	20	10	296	84	-5	+1	-1	-2	+8	0.2
2031	27	MLB	CLE	54%	284	250	57	9	2	6	29	57	3	11	2	228	316	352	668	124	271	20	10	296	85	-5	+1	-1	-2	+8	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1225	1079	245	37	9	24	124	245	13	47	9	227	314	345	659	118	271	20	10	293	82	-25	+6	-2	-7	+35	0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	131	20	5	13	66	130	7	25	5	229	316	349	665	120	273	20	10	293	82	-13	+3	-1	-4	+18	0.3
Career	—			—	3152	2770	626	88	29	55	316	633	34	137	24	226	313	338	651	112	271	20	10	296	85	-54	+18	-5	-19	+89	3.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	129	18	6	11	65	131	7	28	5	226	313	336	649	110	272	20	10	296	85	-11	+4	-1	-4	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	103	90	26	2	1	4	7	20	3	3	0	289	360	467	827	178	319	19	7	357	131	+4	+1	—	—	+3	0.7
2025	21	A+	Lake County Captains	—	166	135	36	5	5	2	25	28	2	8	1	267	389	422	811	156	312	17	15	357	131	+6	+1	—	—	+5	1.2
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	169	141	36	3	2	0	24	21	2	21	2	255	371	305	676	50	295	12	14	316	100	-0	+3	—	—	+5	0.8
2025	21	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	30	24	10	1	0	0	5	3	1	1	2	417	533	458	992	42	476	10	17	455	206	+4	-1	—	—	+1	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	6	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
	/162	664	16	27	245	323	394	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Damian Jacksonlast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,930 PA	6	1,930	21	95	248	324	354	-6	-5	3.6	3.6
	/162	664	7	33	248	324	354	-1.9	-1.6	1.2	pk7: 4
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	1,228	24	47	228	312	350	-7	+0	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	13	26	228	312	350	-4.0	+0.0	0.9	pk7: 2
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nick Mitchell (OGILVIE)	22	35→55	35	60	50	215/307/310	95	267	6	23	21%	11%	69	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chandler Simpson 2023 · A	22	49→59	38→30	56→70	49	228/296/314	87	301	4	17	24%	8%	72	-0.2	265/309/316	51	306	1	59	13%	6%	76	+0.0	299/334/350	51	335	0	65	10%	5%	92	+0.9
●Nicky Lopez 2017 · A	22	47→57	42→40	57→55	51	229/304/337	108	264	10	17	17%	8%	82	+0.5	248/300/333	85	280	5	13	13%	6%	77	+0.1	266/326/350	84	306	4	14	13%	8%	90	+0.8
✕Hoy Park 2018 · A	22	43→49	40→45	58→55	46	205/275/300	94	276	6	17	27%	8%	59	-1.1	222/298/307	85	300	5	16	25%	9%	71	-0.3	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Chris Pieters 2017 · A	22	48	39→45	54→55	49	226/307/315	88	296	6	17	24%	8%	77	+0.1	207/263/300	93	289	6	12	28%	6%	54	-1.4	195/251/293	97	271	6	13	28%	6%	45	-0.8
✕Carlos Rodríguez 2023 · A	22	45→55	39→40	52→50	44	215/277/301	86	296	5	16	28%	7%	60	-1.0	254/306/336	82	309	4	15	18%	7%	80	+0.4	259/308/332	73	304	4	16	16%	6%	77	+0.1
●Ezequiel Carrera 2009 · A	22	50→60	39→45	57→60	45	235/296/328	93	301	6	20	23%	7%	75	-0.0	258/317/333	75	326	3	25	20%	7%	85	+0.7	256/323/359	102	320	11	15	22%	8%	92	+0.7
✕Yoyner Fajardo 2021 · A	22	50→58	36→45	55→60	47	233/290/305	72	281	3	17	18%	6%	66	-0.6	242/297/323	81	319	4	24	24%	6%	74	-0.1	259/317/353	94	332	5	34	22%	7%	85	+0.4
✕Jacob Robson 2017 · A	22	45→55	36→45	54→55	45	211/274/281	70	296	2	18	28%	8%	53	-1.5	238/294/333	95	351	6	16	31%	7%	75	-0.0	247/314/371	124	370	11	22	33%	8%	90	+0.8
●Roger Bernadina 2006 · A	22	40→50	44→45	54→60	50	202/283/312	110	254	12	20	25%	9%	67	-0.5	235/295/331	96	314	8	26	26%	7%	76	+0.0	261/318/388	127	324	12	31	22%	7%	96	+1.3
✕Brent Keys 2012 · A	22	45→55	35→30	51→50	47	213/283/271	58	282	3	14	24%	8%	55	-1.4	268/325/334	66	306	3	12	12%	7%	89	+0.9	277/340/332	55	310	2	12	10%	8%	90	+0.7
✕Leon Johnson 2008 · A	23	49	40	58→60	50	229/302/326	97	301	6	22	24%	9%	77	+0.1	218/282/296	78	282	5	17	23%	7%	61	-1.0	200/262/221	21	248	0	22	18%	6%	30	-0.7
●Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→48	43→50	58→60	54	209/313/325	116	289	9	21	28%	12%	83	+0.6	220/319/358	138	276	15	33	24%	11%	94	+1.3	216/315/358	142	266	16	40	24%	11%	89	+1.0
✕Brandon Roberts 2006 · A	21	50→57	39→40	57→55	43	237/288/323	86	296	6	21	22%	5%	70	-0.3	250/296/316	66	310	4	22	20%	5%	72	-0.2	271/325/342	72	323	5	22	17%	5%	88	+0.5
●Sal Frelick 2022 · A	22	52→59	40→45	56→55	48	247/307/344	98	310	7	17	22%	8%	84	+0.6	263/324/374	111	306	8	19	16%	8%	98	+1.6	266/334/365	99	304	8	20	14%	8%	99	+1.4
✕Adonis Pacheco 2013 · A	22	45	39→50	57→55	45	213/271/312	99	277	4	16	24%	7%	60	-1.0	204/258/296	92	260	5	11	22%	6%	50	-1.7	160/206/240	80	191	3	9	17%	6%	11	-1.2
✕Jarrod Dyson 2007 · A	22	46→56	36→45	58→70	43	213/272/285	72	283	2	18	24%	6%	53	-1.5	224/275/278	54	314	1	30	27%	6%	53	-1.5	260/327/367	107	298	5	53	14%	7%	94	+0.7
✕Kevin Kramer 2016 · A	22	46→56	40→50	54→50	44	219/276/314	95	279	6	12	23%	6%	63	-0.8	244/300/353	109	310	8	8	22%	6%	83	+0.6	253/309/371	119	326	9	8	24%	6%	90	+0.7
✕Alvaro Ramirez 2008 · A	22	48	38→40	51→55	46	223/296/307	84	281	4	17	21%	7%	70	-0.3	232/290/313	81	279	5	16	18%	6%	69	-0.4	256/309/334	78	290	5	21	13%	5%	81	+0.1
✕Cory Harrilchak 2010 · A	22	52→56	38→45	57→50	50	246/300/333	87	283	4	15	15%	7%	77	+0.1	240/290/345	105	296	6	13	20%	6%	77	+0.1	235/287/346	111	291	6	13	20%	6%	73	-0.1
✕Andrew Stevenson 2016 · A	22	48→58	39→50	55→60	43	228/273/309	81	269	6	22	18%	4%	60	-1.0	233/275/306	73	309	3	20	24%	5%	59	-1.1	261/314/404	143	337	12	41	25%	5%	97	+1.1