Nick Mitchell

CF Harrisburg Senators
Age 23 L/R 5'10" / 185 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
OGV OFP35OGV rank#914ETA2029MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202420ATOR103.289/.360/.4674394—.261/.320/.402
202521A+/A/ROK2 orgs365.273/.393/.37023079—.237/.329/.326
202622AAWSH462.261/.362/.36262488—.255/.332/.343
2027PROJMLE23MLBWSH4.221/.302/.3060076-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB24MLBWSH123.226/.307/.32324820.1
2029PROJ45% MLB25MLBWSH193.229/.309/.33437850.2
Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$3M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
Z-Con%89
Whiff%88
K%86
Speed73
BB%69
Chase%69
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 8.1, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 81%
CompsJavi Vaz (age 23) · Leon Johnson (age 23) · Forrest Wall (age 23)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†76
AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .302 / .306
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%9
BABIP272
ISO86
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -6.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-6BATRUN: +1.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.3 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.30.30.20.127282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$1M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.7M+$0.0M
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1.0M+$0.3M
2031Arb-1$2M+0.3$0.9M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Arb-2$3M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Arb-3$3M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $2M $4M +$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202420 ADunedin Blue Jays — 10390 26214 7203 30 289360467827 178319 197 357 94 — — — — — —
202521 A+Lake County Captains — 166135 36552 25282 81 267389422811 156312 1715 357 88 — — — — — —
202521 ALynchburg Hillcats — 169141 36320 24212 212 255371305676 50295 1214 316 63 — — — — — —
202521 ROKACL Guardians — 3024 10100 531 12 417533458992 42476 1017 455 118 — — — — — —
202622 AAHarrisburg Senators — 462395 1031636 57806 246 261362362724 101312 1712 330 88 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202420 A MLEDunedin Blue Jays — 10392 24213 5263 30 261320402722 141293 255 307 94 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLELake County Captains — 166142 33452 18352 81 232327373700 141267 2111 298 88 — — — — — —
202521 A MLELynchburg Hillcats — 169148 33320 17292 212 223311270582 47264 1710 262 63 — — — — — —
202521 ROK MLEACL Guardians — 3026 9100 341 12 346433385818 38382 1310 343 118 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 462411 1051535 41976 246 255332343675 88316 219 298 88 — — — — — —
202420 A MLEDunedin Blue Jays — 10392 24213 5263 30 261320402722 141318 255 307 94 — — — — — —
202420 A RAWDunedin Blue Jays — 10390 26214 7203 30 289360467827 178319 197 357 94 — — — — — —
202521 A MLE3 teams — 365316 73762 38685 305 231323310633 79282 1910 285 79 — — — — — —
202521 A RAW3 teams — 365300 82972 54525 305 273393370763 97317 1415 346 79 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 462411 1051535 41976 246 255332343675 88322 219 298 88 — — — — — —
202622 AA RAWHarrisburg Senators — 462395 1031636 57806 246 261362362724 101312 1712 330 88 — — — — — —
202420 A MLEDunedin Blue Jays — 10394 24213 5263 30 255320394714 138293 255 307 94 — — — — — —
202521 A MLE3 teams — 365319 73762 38685 305 229323307630 78275 1910 285 79 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 462412 1051535 41976 246 255332342674 87316 219 298 88 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202420 A MLEDunedin Blue Jays — 10394 24213 5263 30 255320394714 138293 255 307 94 — — — — — —
202521 A MLE3 teams — 365319 73762 38685 305 229323307630 78275 1910 285 79 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 462412 1051535 41976 246 255332342674 87316 219 298 88 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202723 MLB MLEWSH 2% 530471 1051646 481066 194 223303310613 87273 209 280 76 -15 +2 -1 +2 +11 -0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202723 MLB CTXWSH 2% 44 1000 010 00 221302306608 84272 250 279 76 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202824 MLB MLEWSH 31% 398354 811236 37794 143 227308327634 100275 209 289 82 -9 +2 +0 +1 +9 0.3
202925 MLB MLEWSH 45% 434386 881337 40875 153 230310337647 107276 209 294 85 -8 +2 +0 +2 +9 0.5
203026 MLB MLEWSH 51% 451401 931448 42915 153 231311343654 112277 209 296 87 -7 +2 +0 +2 +10 0.6
203127 MLB MLEWSH 53% 456406 931538 42935 153 231311343654 113277 209 296 87 -7 +2 +0 +2 +10 0.6
203228 MLB MLEWSH 53% 454404 931538 42945 133 230309342651 113277 219 295 86 -8 +1 -1 +2 +10 0.5
203329 MLB MLEWSH 53% 446398 901438 41944 113 227306336642 109276 219 291 83 -9 +1 -1 +2 +10 0.2
203430 MLB MLEWSH 52% 435389 871337 39934 82 224303328630 104274 219 287 80 -10 +1 -2 +2 +9 -0.1
202824 MLB CTXWSH 31% 123110 25412 11251 41 226307323630 97274 209 287 82 -3 +0 +0 +0 +3 0.1
202925 MLB CTXWSH 45% 193171 39613 18392 71 229309334643 105275 209 292 85 -3 +1 +0 +1 +4 0.2
203026 MLB CTXWSH 51% 230205 46714 21462 82 230310339650 109276 209 295 87 -4 +1 +0 +1 +5 0.3
203127 MLB CTXWSH 53% 239212 48814 22493 82 230310340650 111276 219 295 87 -4 +1 +0 +1 +5 0.3
203228 MLB CTXWSH 53% 242215 49814 22503 72 229308339647 110276 219 293 86 -4 +1 -0 +1 +5 0.2
203329 MLB CTXWSH 53% 234209 46714 21492 61 226305333638 106275 219 290 83 -5 +1 -1 +1 +5 0.1
203430 MLB CTXWSH 52% 227202 45714 21482 41 223302325627 102273 219 285 80 -5 +0 -1 +1 +5 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 14881324 29847725 13630615 4410 225304328632 103273 219 291 84 -28 +5 -2 +5 +32 1.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650578 13121311 591347 194 227306330636 104275 219 291 84 -12 +2 -1 +2 +14 0.5
Career— MLE — 42143744 8681263464 38686448 15533 232312335647 103283 219 292 84 -64 +11 -4 +12 +71 2.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650578 13319510 601337 245 230311332643 102280 209 292 84 -13 +2 -1 +2 +14 0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 462 PAwOBA .324 → .298 (−26)K% 17.3% → 21.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.32%÷1.000×1.220——21.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.34%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0278.87%
HBP% /PA1.30%—×0.850—×1.0271.13%
Singles /BIP24.76%÷1.000×0.970×1.040×1.02725.67%
Doubles /BIP5.08%÷1.000×0.860×1.040×1.0274.67%
Triples /BIP0.95%÷1.000×0.950×1.040×1.0270.97%
Home runs /BIP1.90%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0271.53%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .324 → .298; ISO .101 → .090; BABIP .312 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALynchburg Hillcats · 169 PAwOBA .312 → .262 (−50)K% 12.4% → 17.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.43%÷0.989×1.360——17.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.20%÷0.975×0.690——10.05%
HBP% /PA1.18%—×0.780——0.92%
Singles /BIP25.83%÷1.071×0.920×1.033—22.93%
Doubles /BIP2.50%÷0.921×0.830×1.033—2.33%
Triples /BIP1.67%÷1.020×0.910×1.033—1.54%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.184×0.800——0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 114, 2B 84, 3B 104, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.

Result: wOBA .312 → .262; ISO .050 → .047; BABIP .295 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Lake County Captains · 166 PAwOBA .357 → .298 (−60)K% 16.9% → 21.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.87%÷1.020×1.270——21.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.06%÷0.991×0.710—×1.01210.92%
HBP% /PA1.20%—×0.790—×1.0120.96%
Singles /BIP22.43%÷1.031×0.920×0.978×1.01219.81%
Doubles /BIP4.67%÷1.138×0.810×0.978×1.0123.29%
Triples /BIP4.67%÷0.952×0.850×0.978×1.0124.13%
Home runs /BIP1.87%÷1.011×0.800—×1.0121.50%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 90, K 104, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .357 → .298; ISO .156 → .132; BABIP .312 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Guardians · 30 PAwOBA .445 → .343 (−102)K% 10.0% → 13.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.00%÷1.041×1.440——13.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.67%÷1.018×0.620—×0.9759.89%
HBP% /PA3.33%—×0.720—×0.9752.34%
Singles /BIP42.86%÷0.985×0.820—×0.97534.78%
Doubles /BIP4.76%÷0.982×0.720—×0.9753.40%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.075×0.720—×0.9750.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.388×0.780—×0.9750.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 178, 1B 97, 2B 96, 3B 115, K 108, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .445 → .343; ISO .042 → .031; BABIP .476 → .382. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 103 PAwOBA .358 → .307 (−51)K% 19.4% → 25.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.42%÷1.041×1.360——25.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.80%÷0.959×0.690—×1.0154.96%
HBP% /PA2.91%—×0.780—×1.0152.31%
Singles /BIP27.14%÷0.962×0.920×0.978×1.01525.77%
Doubles /BIP2.86%÷0.999×0.830×0.978×1.0152.36%
Triples /BIP1.43%÷1.150×0.910×0.978×1.0151.12%
Home runs /BIP5.71%÷1.003×0.800—×1.0154.62%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 92, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 108, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .358 → .307; ISO .178 → .142; BABIP .319 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).