Nick Mitchell — OGILVIE

Nick MitchellCF Harrisburg Senators

Age 22 L/R 5'10" / 185 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION462 act + 8 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.143 / .250 / .143

PA8

HR0

K%25

BB%12

BABIP283

ISO84

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$10M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$9M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	103	90	26	2	1	4	7	20	3	3	0	289	360	467	827	178	319	19	7	357	128	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.6
2025	21	A+	Lake County Captains	—	166	135	36	5	5	2	25	28	2	8	1	267	389	422	811	156	312	17	15	357	128	+6	+1	—	—	+4	1.1
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	169	141	36	3	2	0	24	21	2	21	2	255	371	305	676	50	295	12	14	316	100	-0	+3	—	—	+4	0.7
2025	21	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	30	24	10	1	0	0	5	3	1	1	2	417	533	458	992	42	476	10	17	455	194	+3	-1	—	—	+1	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	103	92	23	2	1	3	5	27	3	3	0	250	310	391	701	141	292	26	5	309	95	-1	+1	—	—	+2	0.2
2025	21	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	166	142	31	4	4	2	18	37	2	8	1	218	315	345	660	127	261	22	11	289	82	-4	+1	—	—	+4	0.1
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	169	149	33	3	2	0	16	30	2	21	2	221	305	268	574	47	267	18	9	258	61	-8	+3	—	—	+4	-0.1
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	30	26	9	1	0	0	3	4	1	1	2	346	433	385	818	38	392	13	10	350	123	+1	-1	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	103	92	23	2	1	3	5	27	3	3	0	250	310	391	701	141	308	26	5	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	103	90	26	2	1	4	7	20	3	3	0	289	360	467	827	178	319	19	7	357	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	365	317	73	7	6	2	37	71	5	30	5	230	320	309	629	79	284	19	10	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	3 teams	—	365	300	82	9	7	2	54	52	5	30	5	273	393	370	763	97	317	14	15	346	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	103	94	23	2	1	3	5	27	3	3	0	245	310	383	693	138	292	26	5	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	365	320	73	7	6	2	37	71	5	30	5	228	320	306	627	78	275	19	10	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	103	94	23	2	1	3	5	27	3	3	0	245	310	383	693	138	292	26	5	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	365	320	73	7	6	2	37	71	5	30	5	228	320	306	627	78	275	19	10	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	WSH	—	462	413	100	15	3	5	39	97	6	24	6	242	317	329	646	87	304	21	8	286	80	-11	+2	+0	+2	+10	0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA RAW	WSH	—	462	395	103	16	3	6	57	80	6	24	6	261	362	362	724	101	312	17	12	330	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	AA MLE	WSH	2%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	143	250	143	393		285	25	12	285	79	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	22	AA MLE	WSH	—	470	420	101	15	3	5	40	99	6	24	6	240	315	326	642	86	302	21	9	286	80	-11	+2	-0	+2	+10	0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	WSH	35%	451	403	95	14	3	7	40	91	5	17	4	236	312	337	650	102	286	20	9	294	85	-8	+2	-1	+2	+10	0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	WSH	47%	516	459	110	16	4	9	46	103	6	20	4	240	317	351	668	111	287	20	9	302	91	-6	+2	-2	+2	+11	0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	WSH	52%	521	463	112	17	4	10	47	104	6	20	4	242	320	361	680	119	288	20	9	306	93	-4	+2	-2	+2	+11	1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	522	464	113	17	4	11	47	104	6	20	4	244	321	369	690	125	288	20	9	308	94	-3	+2	-2	+2	+11	1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	524	465	113	17	4	11	48	105	6	20	5	243	322	368	690	125	288	20	9	308	94	-3	+2	-2	+2	+11	1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	520	461	111	17	4	10	48	105	6	19	4	241	320	360	680	119	287	20	9	307	94	-4	+2	-2	+2	+11	0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	510	452	108	16	3	10	47	104	6	17	4	239	319	354	673	115	286	20	9	305	93	-5	+2	-3	+2	+11	0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	WSH	52%	500	443	105	15	3	10	47	103	6	15	3	237	319	352	671	115	285	21	9	302	91	-6	+2	-4	+2	+11	0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	WSH	52%	486	432	101	15	3	9	45	102	6	13	3	234	315	345	660	111	283	21	9	298	88	-7	+1	-4	+2	+11	0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	WSH	35%	159	142	33	5	1	2	14	32	2	6	1	232	310	324	634	92	284	20	9	284	85	-3	+1	-1	+1	+3	0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	WSH	47%	240	214	51	8	1	4	21	48	3	9	2	238	315	341	656	103	285	20	9	291	91	-3	+1	-1	+1	+5	0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	WSH	52%	270	241	58	9	2	5	24	54	3	10	2	241	317	357	674	116	286	20	9	296	93	-2	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	283	252	61	9	2	6	26	57	3	11	2	242	320	365	685	123	286	20	9	297	94	-2	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	284	253	61	9	2	6	26	57	3	11	2	241	319	364	683	123	286	20	9	297	94	-2	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	282	251	61	9	2	6	26	57	3	10	2	243	321	367	688	124	285	20	9	296	94	-2	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	271	241	57	9	1	5	25	55	3	9	2	237	316	344	660	108	285	20	9	295	93	-2	+1	-2	+1	+6	0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	WSH	52%	262	233	54	8	1	5	24	54	3	8	2	232	312	339	651	107	284	21	9	292	91	-3	+1	-2	+1	+6	0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	WSH	52%	253	224	53	8	1	5	24	53	3	7	2	237	319	348	667	112	281	21	9	288	88	-4	+1	-2	+1	+5	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2304	2051	489	74	13	44	210	467	26	81	17	238	317	352	669	113	287	20	9	293	90	-22	+9	-11	+8	+50	3.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	138	21	4	12	59	132	7	23	5	238	316	351	667	112	288	20	9	293	90	-6	+3	-3	+2	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	5026	4458	1065	153	39	92	458	1021	61	194	40	239	318	353	671	114	288	20	9	302	90	-46	+18	-22	+16	+99	6.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	138	20	5	12	59	132	8	25	5	239	318	354	672	114	288	20	9	302	90	-7	+3	-3	+2	+14	1.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Manuel Margotlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,154 PA	4.8	3,154	56	94	254	307	380	-5	+27	8.4	8.8
/162	664	12	20	-1.1	+5.6	1.8	pk7: 9
#2Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#4Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#5Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	3.5	2,311	44	81	240	315	356	-14	+0	3.7	3.5
/162	664	13	23	-4.0	+0.0	1.1	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nick Mitchell (OGILVIE)	22	35→55	35	60	50	229/305/314	85	285	3	14	20%	9%	79	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chandler Simpson 2023 · A	22	49→59	38→30	56→70	48	228/294/313	86	300	4	17	24%	8%	74	-0.5	270/314/320	50	311	1	59	13%	6%	82	-0.0	303/337/348	46	336	0	63	10%	5%	93	+0.8
✕Nicky Lopez 2017 · A	22	47→57	42→40	57→55	51	229/304/337	108	264	10	17	17%	8%	84	+0.1	252/304/335	83	284	5	13	13%	6%	82	-0.0	264/325/345	82	303	4	14	13%	8%	90	+0.4
●Sal Frelick 2022 · A	22	52→60	40	56→55	48	248/308/348	100	311	7	17	22%	8%	87	+0.4	262/323/367	105	305	7	19	16%	7%	97	+1.1	262/330/356	94	300	7	20	14%	8%	95	+0.8
✕Caleb Durbin 2022 · A	22	46→52	36→45	57→60	48	214/269/283	69	250	3	20	16%	6%	57	-1.8	233/307/337	104	260	8	29	13%	7%	85	+0.2	243/323/371	128	260	12	25	12%	7%	96	+0.9
✕Hoy Park 2018 · A	22	43→49	39→45	58→55	46	205/275/296	91	274	6	17	26%	8%	63	-1.3	223/300/306	83	296	5	16	24%	9%	75	-0.5	228/317/324	96	297	8	17	24%	11%	83	+0.0
●Maikel Garcia 2022 · A	22	50→58	39→50	58→60	50	236/300/327	91	298	5	22	21%	8%	79	-0.2	247/302/345	98	313	7	27	22%	7%	84	+0.1	261/321/393	132	295	10	24	15%	8%	100	+1.2
●Ezequiel Carrera 2009 · A	22	50→60	39→45	57→60	45	235/296/328	93	301	6	20	23%	7%	78	-0.3	261/321/335	74	329	3	25	20%	7%	88	+0.4	256/323/358	102	320	11	15	22%	8%	93	+0.5
✕Brent Keys 2012 · A	22	46→56	35→30	51→50	48	214/286/273	58	283	3	14	24%	8%	62	-1.4	272/328/340	68	307	3	12	12%	7%	92	+0.7	282/343/338	56	313	2	12	10%	8%	94	+0.6
✕Chris Pieters 2017 · A	22	48	39→45	54→55	49	226/307/315	88	296	6	17	24%	8%	80	-0.2	207/265/296	89	292	5	12	29%	6%	59	-1.7	197/253/289	92	277	5	13	29%	6%	51	-0.8
✕Rey Fuentes 2013 · AA	22	45→55	38→40	57→60	39	214/264/292	78	301	5	27	30%	6%	57	-1.8	255/305/346	91	336	7	29	24%	6%	85	+0.2	275/323/366	91	351	7	33	22%	6%	93	+0.6
✕Jarrod Dyson 2007 · A	22	46→56	36→45	58→70	43	213/272/285	72	283	2	18	24%	6%	59	-1.7	225/276/278	53	314	1	30	27%	6%	58	-1.7	256/324/360	104	294	5	53	14%	7%	92	+0.4
✕Yoyner Fajardo 2021 · A	22	50→58	36→45	55→60	47	233/290/305	72	281	3	17	18%	6%	70	-0.8	239/296/322	83	313	5	24	24%	7%	76	-0.4	260/317/349	89	329	5	34	21%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Roger Bernadina 2006 · A	22	40→50	44→45	54→60	50	202/283/312	110	254	12	20	25%	9%	71	-0.8	236/296/330	94	314	8	26	25%	7%	78	-0.3	261/318/385	124	324	11	31	22%	7%	95	+0.9
✕Jacob Robson 2017 · A	22	45→55	36→45	54→55	45	211/274/281	70	296	2	18	28%	8%	59	-1.7	241/297/329	88	356	5	16	31%	7%	78	-0.3	244/312/356	112	370	9	22	33%	8%	87	+0.3
✕Andrew Stevenson 2016 · A	22	49→58	39→50	55→60	44	233/278/315	82	274	6	22	17%	4%	68	-1.0	234/276/307	73	308	3	20	24%	5%	65	-1.2	252/306/384	132	329	11	41	25%	6%	91	+0.5
✕Forrest Wall 2018 · A	22	45→55	40→45	50→70	43	220/271/313	93	286	8	16	25%	6%	65	-1.2	216/276/323	107	300	9	19	29%	7%	70	-0.9	253/326/354	101	349	8	50	27%	9%	92	+0.5
✕Kevin Kramer 2016 · A	22	46→54	40→45	54→50	44	220/276/315	95	281	6	12	24%	6%	68	-1.0	244/300/352	108	310	7	8	22%	6%	85	+0.2	251/305/365	114	325	8	8	24%	6%	88	+0.3
✕Brandon Roberts 2006 · A	21	50→58	39→40	57→55	43	237/288/323	86	296	6	21	22%	5%	74	-0.6	250/297/316	66	309	4	22	19%	5%	75	-0.5	272/327/339	67	324	4	22	16%	5%	89	+0.3
✕Randy Romero 2022 · A	22	46	36→40	59→60	44	214/256/282	68	260	2	21	18%	5%	52	-2.2	200/247/269	69	295	4	13	32%	5%	45	-2.7	168/205/208	40	267	3	19	37%	4%	15	-1.0
✕Adonis Pacheco 2013 · A	22	45	39→50	57→55	45	213/271/312	99	277	4	16	24%	7%	65	-1.2	204/258/296	92	260	5	11	22%	6%	56	-1.9	160/206/240	80	191	3	9	17%	6%	22	-1.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps