Nick Mitchell — OGILVIE

Nick MitchellOF Akron RubberDucks

Age 22 L/R 5'10" / 185 lbs AA K +5%HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.7 · 2030

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.235 / .311 / .361

PA320

HR7

SB15

K%22

BB%9

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

35↗55

PWR

35→35

SPD

60→60

FLD

40↗50

EYE

54↘50

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.8peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.6	$14M	+$13M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.7	$15M	+$14M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.7	$16M	+$15M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.5	$14M	+$11M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.4	$14M	+$9M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.1	$11M	+$6M
Totals		$16M		$84M	+$69M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	103	91	23	2	1	3	6	27	3	3	0	.253	.320	.396	.716	.143	.312	26	6	.311	96	-0	+1	+0	-1	+3	0.3
2025	21	A	3 teams	365	318	74	7	6	2	36	69	5	30	5	.233	.320	.311	.632	.079	.285	19	10	.283	75	-10	+4	+0	-2	+10	0.2
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	22	AA	Akron RubberDucks	70	60	11	1	0	1	8	21	1	6	0	.183	.290	.250	.540	.067	.263	30	11	.251	50	-4	+1	+0	-0	+2	-0.1
ROS	22	MLB	CLE	250	222	51	8	2	5	23	58	3	9	1	.230	.310	.351	.662	.122	.287	23	9	.298	87	-4	+1	-0	-2	+7	0.3
TOT	22	MLB	CLE	320	282	62	9	2	6	31	79	4	15	1	.220	.306	.330	.636	.110	.283	25	10	.288	79	-8	+3	-0	-2	+9	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	23	MLB 12%	CLE	432	380	91	15	3	10	44	81	5	13	2	.239	.326	.374	.700	.134	.277	19	10	.314	98	-1	+2	-1	-3	+12	1.0
2028	24	MLB 27%	CLE	479	421	101	17	3	11	49	90	6	14	2	.240	.328	.373	.701	.133	.278	19	10	.318	102	+1	+2	-1	-3	+14	1.3
2029	25	MLB 44%	CLE	504	441	107	18	3	13	52	94	6	14	1	.243	.331	.385	.716	.143	.280	19	10	.322	105	+3	+2	-1	-3	+14	1.6
2030	26	MLB 59%	CLE	517	452	109	18	3	13	54	97	6	14	1	.241	.330	.381	.711	.139	.280	19	10	.324	106	+3	+2	-1	-3	+15	1.7
2031	27	MLB 77%	CLE	520	454	109	18	3	13	55	98	6	13	1	.240	.330	.379	.709	.139	.280	19	11	.324	106	+4	+2	-1	-3	+15	1.7
2032	28	MLB 84%	CLE	517	450	109	18	3	13	56	99	6	13	1	.242	.334	.382	.716	.140	.280	19	11	.323	105	+3	+2	-2	-3	+15	1.5
2033	29	MLB 91%	CLE	509	443	107	18	3	13	55	99	6	12	0	.242	.333	.384	.717	.142	.280	19	11	.321	104	+2	+2	-2	-3	+14	1.4
2034	30	MLB	CLE	499	436	103	17	3	12	54	98	6	11	0	.236	.329	.372	.700	.135	.279	20	11	.318	101	+1	+2	-3	-3	+14	1.1
2035	31	MLB	CLE	486	425	99	16	3	11	52	98	6	10	0	.233	.325	.362	.687	.129	.277	20	11	.314	99	-1	+2	-4	-3	+14	0.9
2036	32	MLB	CLE	467	409	94	15	3	10	50	97	5	9	0	.230	.321	.355	.676	.125	.276	21	11	.310	95	-3	+2	-4	-3	+13	0.5
2037	33	MLB	CLE	438	383	87	14	3	9	47	94	5	8	0	.227	.320	.350	.669	.123	.275	21	11	.305	91	-4	+2	-5	-3	+12	0.2
2038	34	MLB	CLE	392	343	76	12	2	8	42	87	4	8	0	.222	.314	.338	.652	.117	.274	22	11	.298	87	-6	+2	-6	-2	+11	-0.1
2039	35	MLB	CLE	339	296	64	10	2	6	36	79	4	7	0	.216	.310	.324	.634	.108	.272	23	11	.291	81	-7	+1	-6	-2	+10	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6817	5964	1404	223	46	152	711	1365	82	188	14	.235	.325	.365	.690	.129	.279	20	10	.313	97	-20	+32	-37	-41	+193	13.0
/ 162G	—			650	569	133	21	4	14	68	130	8	18	1	.234	.325	.359	.683	.125	.277	20	10	.313	97	-2	+3	-3	-4	+18	1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	103	90	26	2	1	4	7	20	3	3	0	.289	.360	.467	.827	.178	.319	19	7	.357	131	+4	+1	—	—	+3	0.7
2025	21	A+	Lake County Captains	166	135	36	5	5	2	25	28	2	8	1	.267	.389	.422	.811	.156	.312	17	15	.357	131	+6	+1	—	—	+5	1.2
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	169	141	36	3	2	0	24	21	2	21	2	.255	.371	.305	.676	.050	.295	12	14	.316	100	-0	+3	—	—	+5	0.8
2025	21	ROK	ACL Guardians	30	24	10	1	0	0	5	3	1	1	2	.417	.533	.458	.992	.042	.476	10	17	.455	206	+4	-1	—	—	+1	0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nick Mitchell (OGILVIE)	22	35→55	35	60	50	.235/.311/.361	.126	.290	7	8	22%	9%	91	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nicky Lopez 2017 · A	22	47→57	42→40	56→55	51	.229/.303/.336	.107	.265	9	17	17%	8%	81	+0.4	.248/.301/.331	.083	.281	5	14	13%	6%	77	+0.1	.256/.317/.334	.078	.294	4	14	13%	8%	82	+0.4
✕Victor Scott II 2023 · A	22	44→54	44→40	57→65	50	.214/.296/.341	.127	.291	10	19	28%	10%	79	+0.3	.226/.286/.327	.101	.285	8	44	22%	6%	71	-0.3	.219/.283/.310	.090	.276	7	49	22%	6%	63	-0.7
✕Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	45→47	43→45	57→60	53	.214/.313/.328	.115	.295	9	20	28%	11%	84	+0.6	.215/.314/.338	.123	.272	13	32	24%	11%	87	+0.8	.209/.308/.338	.130	.260	14	40	24%	11%	81	+0.5
●Sal Frelick 2022 · A	22	52→60	41→45	55	48	.247/.306/.350	.103	.310	7	16	22%	8%	85	+0.7	.264/.324/.374	.110	.307	8	18	16%	7%	98	+1.6	.265/.329/.365	.100	.306	7	20	15%	8%	94	+1.1
●Alan Roden 2023 · A	23	47→57	41→45	51→50	51	.224/.308/.323	.099	.271	8	12	20%	8%	80	+0.4	.255/.331/.375	.120	.298	11	15	17%	8%	103	+1.9	.258/.335/.383	.125	.300	12	14	17%	8%	103	+1.4
●LaMonte Wade Jr. 2016 · A	22	46→54	45→55	55→45	53	.229/.307/.355	.125	.265	13	10	19%	9%	87	+0.8	.239/.318/.350	.111	.280	10	8	17%	9%	91	+1.1	.238/.339/.417	.179	.270	23	4	20%	12%	114	+1.9
●Tony Kemp 2014 · A	22	47→57	40→45	49→55	52	.226/.304/.314	.088	.282	7	10	22%	9%	76	+0.0	.265/.332/.360	.095	.313	6	23	16%	8%	98	+1.6	.272/.339/.360	.088	.321	4	25	15%	8%	98	+1.4
✕Mark Zagunis 2015 · A	22	48→53	41→45	55→50	47	.227/.299/.337	.110	.295	7	14	24%	8%	79	+0.3	.237/.325/.365	.128	.306	11	9	24%	10%	98	+1.6	.233/.329/.369	.136	.303	12	8	25%	10%	98	+1.2
✕Ryan Kalish 2010 · AA	22	49→51	44→50	52→55	46	.237/.296/.355	.118	.303	12	14	25%	8%	82	+0.5	.240/.297/.372	.132	.298	14	23	23%	7%	87	+0.8	.232/.286/.357	.124	.293	12	26	24%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Drew Avans 2019 · A	23	46→53	48→45	55→60	50	.231/.303/.373	.142	.280	15	17	23%	9%	90	+1.0	.223/.283/.346	.123	.312	12	21	31%	7%	75	-0.0	.223/.291/.339	.116	.327	9	33	32%	8%	71	-0.2
✕Dwight Smith Jr. 2015 · A	22	50→53	42→50	53→50	49	.239/.297/.345	.106	.289	8	12	20%	7%	79	+0.3	.241/.293/.347	.106	.294	9	9	20%	7%	78	+0.2	.248/.308/.381	.134	.295	13	9	20%	7%	92	+0.9
●Domonic Brown 2010 · AA	22	50→55	46→55	52→55	46	.247/.303/.381	.133	.304	13	17	23%	7%	92	+1.2	.253/.313/.405	.152	.311	16	16	23%	8%	102	+1.9	.252/.317/.416	.164	.286	19	11	19%	8%	101	+1.4
●TJ Friedl 2018 · A	22	47→53	41→50	49→55	43	.227/.287/.336	.109	.294	7	11	24%	6%	74	-0.1	.225/.297/.323	.098	.293	7	18	24%	7%	75	-0.0	.246/.337/.381	.136	.276	15	18	16%	10%	103	+1.8
●Tyler Black 2023 · A	23	48→52	41→50	50→60	54	.223/.318/.326	.103	.296	7	14	25%	11%	85	+0.7	.237/.328/.389	.152	.306	13	30	25%	10%	105	+2.1	.235/.328/.388	.154	.304	14	35	25%	10%	101	+1.4
★Chris Coghlan 2008 · A	23	47→57	46→50	54→55	50	.232/.292/.372	.140	.263	12	15	17%	7%	85	+0.7	.268/.334/.397	.129	.311	9	18	16%	8%	108	+2.3	.284/.353/.410	.125	.332	9	19	16%	8%	115	+2.5
✕Chris Pieters 2017 · A	22	48	39→45	54→55	49	.226/.307/.315	.088	.296	6	17	24%	8%	77	+0.1	.211/.271/.300	.089	.291	5	12	27%	7%	57	-1.2	.201/.259/.291	.090	.277	5	13	27%	6%	47	-0.7
✕Tristan Peters 2023 · AA	23	47→50	43→45	54→50	49	.225/.293/.348	.122	.288	9	14	24%	8%	79	+0.3	.227/.293/.350	.123	.284	10	12	22%	8%	80	+0.4	.224/.293/.346	.123	.275	10	11	21%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Robert Perry 2008 · A	23	49→42	44→50	53→55	51	.240/.317/.368	.128	.275	10	16	17%	8%	95	+1.4	.210/.292/.304	.094	.254	6	12	19%	8%	69	-0.4	.195/.283/.262	.067	.233	3	12	17%	8%	52	-1.2
✕Troy Montgomery 2017 · A	22	47→56	43→40	50	45	.227/.289/.343	.116	.293	11	12	26%	7%	76	+0.1	.230/.296/.328	.098	.309	8	13	26%	8%	75	-0.0	.237/.307/.326	.089	.321	6	14	26%	9%	76	+0.1
✕Nick Senzel 2017 · A	22	48→56	44→50	51→50	47	.232/.297/.363	.132	.298	10	16	25%	8%	85	+0.7	.253/.307/.400	.147	.331	13	14	26%	7%	98	+1.6	.259/.313/.416	.157	.335	15	16	26%	7%	102	+1.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)