Derek Cueto — OGILVIE

Derek Cueto P DSL Miami

Age 20 RHP 5'10" / 167 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.07

FIP5.07

K%20.3%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%7.0%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	12	0	38	155	35	18	3	0%	3.2	15.4%	14.5%	0.8%	1.9%	3.79	4.69	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	12	0	38	155	35	18	3	0%	3.2	15.4%	14.5%	0.8%	1.9%	3.79	4.69	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	12	0	38	155	35	18	3	0%	3.2	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	1.9%	3.79	3.71	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	20	MLB	MIA	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	20.3%	13.3%	7.0%	3.0%	5.07	5.07	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIA	34	0	36	152	32	18	4	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.9%	9.2%	2.9%	4.87	4.79	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIA	17	0	18	76	16	9	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.9%	9.2%	2.8%	4.79	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	75	16	9	2	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.9%	9.2%	2.8%	4.79	4.34	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	102	23	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.9%	9.2%	2.8%	4.79	4.34	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		12	0	38	155	24	22	3	0%	3.2	15.4%	14.5%	0.8%	1.9%	3.79	4.69	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	0	200	816	125	118	16	0%	3.2	15.4%	14.5%	0.8%	1.9%	3.79	4.69	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Derek Cueto (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.07	20.3%	13.3%	3.0%	—	4.79	21.1%	9.2%	36	-0.28	—	—	—
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.01	538	84
Francis Hernandez R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	20	SU	5.11	16.4%	11.3%	3.6%	.280	5.42	13.3%	-0.8%	92	+0.31	3.27	180	83
Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.88	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.38	3.02	104	82
Bradley Hanner R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	20	SU	3.98	18.9%	13.9%	1.3%	.231	4.08	18.9%	3.9%	100	+0.10	2.88	352	81
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	287	81
Marc Davis R 2022 · 5.26 FIP	22	SU	5.26	20.7%	14.0%	3.9%	.151	4.87	17.1%	-0.3%	88	-0.39	4.02	111	80
Anderson Munoz R 2019 · 4.80 FIP	20	SU	4.80	22.7%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	4.15	27.0%	16.4%	51	-0.65	4.15	109	80
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	79
Jormy Nivar R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SU	3.88	16.1%	12.8%	0.9%	.313	4.50	14.0%	5.3%	169	+0.62	1.98	199	79
Nestor Lorant R 2022 · 3.99 FIP	20	SW	3.99	22.5%	13.2%	2.0%	.385	3.98	18.6%	8.4%	223	-0.01	2.73	373	78
Audry Lugo R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.30	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.25	4.05	113	78
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	78
Tyler Gray R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	18.2%	11.7%	2.6%	.333	4.41	11.9%	3.6%	72	-0.08	4.41	119	78
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	78
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	78
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	78
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	78
Carlos Campos R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	20	SU	4.82	20.4%	10.7%	3.8%	.304	5.85	15.3%	8.1%	19	+1.03	4.82	134	77
Doimil Perez R 2023 · 5.95 FIP	19	SU	5.95	17.8%	14.7%	4.5%	.322	5.36	16.6%	-2.0%	47	-0.59	3.32	139	77
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	20.8%	12.4%	1.13	4.95
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10