Derek Cueto
P
DSL Miami
Age 20
RHP
5'10" / 167 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
K%22.7%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%12.9%
ROS IP23
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Miami | 12 | 0 | 38 | 155 | 35 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 3.2 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 3.79 | 4.45 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Miami | 12 | 0 | 38 | 155 | 35 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 3.2 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 1.9% | 3.79 | 3.71 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 0 | 23 | 95 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIA | 23 | 0 | 24 | 100 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.24 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 12 | 49 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 3.86 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 189 | 86 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 38 | 155 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 3.2 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 3.79 | 4.45 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 0 | 200 | 816 | 125 | 118 | 12 | 0% | 3.2 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 3.79 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Derek Cueto (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.28 | 23.1% | 13.9% | 24 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Albert Polanco R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.96 | 24.6% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.22 | 135 | 86 |
| Osiel Rodriguez R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.32 | 19.6% | 6.6% | 1.9% | .306 | 5.28 | 22.3% | 7.4% | 92 | +1.96 | 3.32 | 124 | 84 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.48 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.48 | 3.28 | 181 | 84 |
| Ian Koenig R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.55 | 20.0% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .310 | 5.84 | 14.4% | 5.9% | 225 | +2.29 | 3.55 | 244 | 83 |
| Kai Wynyard R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.41 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .269 | 4.09 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 138 | -0.32 | 3.29 | 240 | 80 |
| Alix Hernandez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.26 | 21.7% | 13.7% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.65 | 23.8% | 12.0% | 56 | +0.39 | 3.43 | 149 | 80 |
| Juan Jimenez R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.45 | 18.2% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .327 | 5.51 | 17.2% | 2.6% | 80 | +2.06 | 3.45 | 115 | 79 |
| Carlos Campos R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.43 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 3.1% | .304 | 5.57 | 15.3% | 8.1% | 19 | +1.14 | 4.43 | 134 | 79 |
| Joangel Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.42 | 18.3% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .312 | 4.91 | 19.4% | 3.4% | 93 | +0.49 | 3.96 | 127 | 79 |
| Joey Matulovich R 2027 · 3.22 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.22 | 22.8% | 12.0% | 1.0% | .317 | 5.29 | 21.3% | 8.1% | 107 | +2.07 | 3.22 | 201 | 78 |
| Addison Russ R 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.90 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .324 | 3.02 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.88 | 2.96 | 194 | 78 |
| Chris Gau R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.23 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.53 | 2.88 | 211 | 78 |
| Reece Karalus R 2028 · 4.74 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.74 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 3.8% | .298 | 4.94 | 14.8% | 4.1% | 103 | +0.20 | 4.74 | 149 | 78 |
| Brandon Komar R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.63 | 17.7% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | 5.21 | 16.7% | 5.7% | 198 | +0.58 | 3.00 | 538 | 78 |
| Kevin Coulter R 2028 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.27 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.31 | 16.1% | 7.6% | 92 | +1.04 | 3.27 | 128 | 77 |
| David Sosebee R 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.37 | 17.8% | 9.8% | 1.0% | .304 | 2.56 | 22.7% | 15.7% | 122 | -0.81 | 2.05 | 206 | 77 |
| Ian Gibaut R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.62 | 21.5% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .292 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 12.8% | 156 | -0.07 | 2.66 | 430 | 77 |
| Grant Dyer R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.72 | 26.9% | 7.2% | 3.6% | .236 | 3.51 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 92 | -0.21 | 2.86 | 118 | 77 |
| Isaiah Campbell R 2029 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.07 | 19.7% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .220 | 3.59 | 25.4% | 17.1% | 115 | -0.48 | 3.30 | 225 | 77 |
| Juan Manuel Abril R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.23 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 1.1% | .310 | 5.94 | 20.1% | -6.7% | 41 | +2.71 | 3.23 | 133 | 77 |