Cesar Castro prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Cesar Castro P DSL Rays

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 7 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%21.9%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	8	0	11	59	10	8	1	0%	1.4	11.5%	16.9%	-5.4%	2.1%	5.56	5.44	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	8	0	11	59	10	8	1	0%	1.4	11.5%	16.9%	-5.4%	2.1%	5.56	5.44	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	8	0	11	59	10	8	1	0%	1.4	16.9%	13.6%	3.4%	1.7%	5.56	4.60	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	8	0	13	58	11	6	0	0%	1.6	12.9%	12.9%	-0.0%	0.0%	5.54	3.65	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	8	0	13	58	11	6	0	0%	1.6	12.9%	12.9%	-0.0%	0.0%	5.54	3.65	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	8	0	13	58	11	6	0	0%	1.6	19.0%	10.3%	8.6%	0.0%	5.54	2.79	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	21	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.9%	11.3%	10.6%	3.0%	4.69	4.69	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TB	19	0	20	84	19	9	2	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.2%	12.7%	2.9%	4.52	4.44	+0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	TB	10	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.2%	12.7%	2.9%	4.52	4.44	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.2%	12.7%	2.9%	4.52	4.06	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	81	20	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.2%	12.7%	2.9%	4.52	4.06	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		16	0	24	117	14	18	1	0%	1.5	12.2%	15.0%	-2.8%	1.1%	5.55	4.55	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	0	200	962	117	144	10	0%	1.5	12.2%	15.0%	-2.8%	1.1%	5.55	4.55	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cesar Castro (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	21.9%	11.3%	3.0%	—	4.44	23.0%	12.7%	20	-0.25	—	—	—
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	89
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	88
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	88
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	87
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	411	87
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	87
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	87
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	86
Cam Bedrosian R 2014 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	21.5%	11.8%	2.1%	.350	2.72	26.8%	17.8%	154	-1.22	1.79	363	86
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	86
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	85
Danny Dopico R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.90	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.03	3.00	318	85
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	85
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	85
Ty Tice R 2017 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	22.2%	12.9%	2.6%	.271	3.53	19.4%	8.3%	108	-0.76	3.24	288	85
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	85
Nic Enright R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	22	SU	3.63	24.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.263	3.01	29.6%	23.5%	124	-0.62	0.43	249	85
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	85
Nick Lockhart R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	21	SU	4.44	22.0%	9.9%	3.5%	.275	4.63	16.1%	5.5%	43	+0.19	4.44	140	84
Pedro Da Costa Lemos R 2023 · 3.57 FIP	20	SU	3.57	23.5%	13.2%	1.4%	.286	4.64	18.0%	7.8%	180	+1.07	3.57	204	84