Jefferson Moran

P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 155 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKSTL	9	7	34	4.54	3.60	21.6%	9.5%	—	K 14.7% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.55
2025	21	ROKSTL	6	4	15	2.45	2.62	33.8%	19.1%	—	K 23.0% · BB 23.9% · FIP 4.18
2026	22	MIX2 levels	7	5	21	3.80	3.85	28.9%	15.6%	—	K 17.9% · BB 20.9% · FIP 6.54
2027PROJ	23	MLBSTL	2	2	10	5.47	5.47	21.3%	16.9%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBSTL	2	2	9	5.20	5.09	22.1%	14.5%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 91%

CompsEriq Swan (age 22) · Ray Gaither (age 24) · Zach Linginfelter (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.47

FIP5.47

K%21.3%

BB%16.9%

K-BB%4.4%

Proj IP10

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	9	6	27	113	28	12	2	67%	3.0	16.8%	13.3%	3.6%	2.7%	4.33	4.82	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	9	6	27	113	28	12	2	67%	3.0	24.8%	10.6%	14.2%	1.8%	4.33	3.32	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	9	7	34	148	32	14	3	78%	3.7	14.7%	11.8%	2.9%	2.2%	4.54	4.55	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	9	7	34	148	32	14	3	78%	3.7	14.7%	11.8%	2.9%	2.2%	4.54	4.55	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	9	7	34	148	32	14	3	78%	3.7	21.6%	9.5%	12.2%	2.0%	4.54	3.60	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	6	4	15	68	23	13	0	67%	2.4	23.0%	23.9%	-0.9%	0.0%	2.45	4.18	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	6	4	15	68	23	13	0	67%	2.4	23.0%	23.9%	-0.9%	0.0%	2.45	4.18	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	6	4	15	68	23	13	0	67%	2.4	33.8%	19.1%	14.7%	0.0%	2.45	2.62	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	5	21	90	26	14	2	71%	3.0	17.9%	20.9%	-3.0%	4.2%	3.80	6.54	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	5	21	90	26	14	2	71%	3.0	17.9%	20.9%	-3.0%	4.2%	3.80	6.54	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	5	21	90	26	14	2	71%	3.0	28.9%	15.6%	13.3%	2.2%	3.80	3.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	STL	2	2	10	42	9	7	1	100%	5.0	21.3%	16.9%	4.4%	3.0%	5.47	5.47	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	4	4	20	84	19	12	3	100%	5.0	22.1%	14.5%	7.5%	3.0%	5.20	5.09	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	2	2	9	38	8	6	1	100%	4.5	22.1%	14.5%	7.5%	3.0%	5.20	5.09	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	9	36	8	5	1	100%	4.3	22.1%	14.5%	7.5%	3.0%	5.20	4.71	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	187	117	23	100%	5.6	22.1%	14.5%	7.5%	3.0%	5.20	4.71	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		31	22	97	419	73	68	10	71%	3.1	17.3%	16.1%	1.2%	2.4%	4.00	4.99	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	46	200	867	150	140	21	71%	3.1	17.3%	16.1%	1.2%	2.4%	4.00	4.99	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jefferson Moran (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.47	21.3%	16.9%	3.0%	—	5.09	22.1%	7.5%	20	-0.38	—	—	—
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	82
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	81
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	80
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	79
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	78
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	78
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	77
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	77
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	76
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	76
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	76
Nick Gallagher R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	23	SP-	4.56	22.0%	17.9%	1.9%	.274	5.02	21.0%	7.0%	73	+0.46	4.10	196	76
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	75
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	75
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	75
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	74
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	74
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	4.21	254	74
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	74
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	74