Zane Barnhart — OGILVIE

Zane Barnhart P Erie SeaWolves

Age 24 RHP 5'10" / 205 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%20.4%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	6	29	8	8	0	0%	1.3	27.6%	27.6%	0.0%	0.0%	2.84	4.26	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	6	29	8	8	0	0%	1.3	27.6%	27.6%	0.0%	0.0%	2.84	4.26	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	6	29	8	8	0	0%	1.3	27.6%	27.6%	0.0%	0.0%	2.84	4.36	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	52	220	56	31	3	0%	1.5	18.2%	16.7%	1.5%	2.0%	2.58	4.76	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	52	220	56	31	3	0%	1.5	18.2%	16.7%	1.5%	2.0%	2.58	4.76	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	52	220	56	31	3	0%	1.5	25.5%	14.1%	11.4%	1.4%	2.58	3.48	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	52	215	58	20	3	0%	1.3	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	1.0%	3.83	3.36	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	52	215	58	20	3	0%	1.3	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	1.0%	3.83	3.36	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	52	215	58	20	3	0%	1.3	27.0%	9.3%	17.7%	1.4%	3.83	2.77	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	44	0	55	243	65	32	7	0%	1.3	21.7%	14.5%	7.2%	3.5%	4.07	5.00	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	44	0	55	243	65	32	7	0%	1.3	21.7%	14.5%	7.2%	3.5%	4.07	5.00	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	DET	44	0	55	243	65	32	7	0%	1.3	26.7%	13.2%	13.6%	2.9%	4.07	4.09	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	DET	5	0	5	22	4	3	1	0%	1.0	20.4%	13.2%	7.2%	2.7%	4.89	4.89	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	61	265	69	35	8	—	—	26.2%	13.2%	13.1%	2.9%	4.14	4.99	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	DET	55	0	58	244	52	29	7	0%	1.1	21.2%	11.9%	9.3%	2.7%	4.74	4.67	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	DET	55	0	58	244	53	28	7	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.7%	9.9%	2.7%	4.66	4.62	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	DET	24	0	25	106	22	13	3	0%	1.0	21.2%	11.9%	9.3%	2.7%	4.74	4.67	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	DET	37	0	39	165	35	19	4	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.7%	9.9%	2.7%	4.66	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	0	64	271	58	32	7	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.8%	9.6%	2.7%	4.69	4.26	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	100	22	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.8%	9.6%	2.7%	4.69	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		124	0	166	707	146	105	15	0%	1.3	20.6%	14.8%	5.8%	2.1%	3.48	4.40	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		150	0	200	854	176	126	18	0%	1.3	20.6%	14.8%	5.8%	2.1%	3.48	4.40	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zane Barnhart (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	20.4%	13.2%	2.7%	—	4.65	21.3%	9.6%	116	-0.24	—	—	—
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	97
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	93
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	93
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	91
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	91
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	91
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	90
Pat Light R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.37	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.03	4.10	172	90
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	90
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	90
Matt Lollis R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	18.5%	12.2%	2.7%	.237	4.95	19.2%	4.7%	56	+0.39	4.56	120	90
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	90
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	89
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	5.02	18.8%	6.8%	174	+0.70	4.32	218	89
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	89
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	89
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	89
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	89
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	88
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	88

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	21.0%	12.3%	1.04	4.76
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64