Joe Ariola

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX4 levels	21	2	35	1.56	1.37	45.7%	10.0%	—	K 33.0% · BB 11.5% · FIP 3.73
2027PROJ	23	MLBARI	10	0	10	4.14	4.14	27.8%	10.6%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBARI	13	0	14	4.07	4.02	27.9%	9.9%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsBrandon Hughes (age 25) · Ryan Rowland-Smith (age 24) · Hayden Harris (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96104vR 112

ERA4.14

FIP4.14

K%27.8%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%17.2%

Proj IP10

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	21	2	35	140	64	14	2	10%	1.7	33.0%	11.5%	21.5%	3.6%	1.56	3.73	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	21	2	35	140	64	14	2	10%	1.7	33.0%	11.5%	21.5%	3.6%	1.56	3.73	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	21	2	35	140	64	14	2	10%	1.7	45.7%	10.0%	35.7%	1.4%	1.56	1.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	ARI	10	0	10	42	12	4	1	0%	1.0	27.8%	10.6%	17.2%	3.0%	4.14	4.14	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	ARI	30	0	32	135	38	13	4	0%	1.1	27.9%	9.9%	18.0%	3.0%	4.07	4.02	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	ARI	13	0	14	59	16	6	2	0%	1.1	27.9%	9.9%	18.0%	3.0%	4.07	4.02	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	58	16	6	2	0%	1.1	27.9%	9.9%	18.0%	3.0%	4.07	3.64	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	232	87	29	0%	1.1	27.9%	9.9%	18.0%	3.0%	4.07	3.64	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		21	2	35	140	46	16	5	10%	1.7	33.0%	11.5%	21.5%	3.6%	1.56	3.73	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		121	12	200	808	267	93	29	10%	1.7	33.0%	11.5%	21.5%	3.6%	1.56	3.73	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Ariola (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.14	27.8%	10.6%	3.0%	—	4.02	27.9%	18.0%	32	-0.12	—	—	—
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.59	24.3%	15.3%	149	+0.91	3.68	206	83
Ryan Rowland-Smith L 2007 · 3.35 FIP	24	SU	3.35	25.0%	8.3%	2.4%	.324	4.89	12.7%	4.4%	324	+1.54	3.35	363	83
Hayden Harris L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	29.1%	11.2%	1.9%	.315	3.30	29.4%	17.2%	145	+0.19	1.77	196	82
Rafael Perez L 2006 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	26.8%	8.9%	3.6%	.235	3.21	23.6%	17.0%	185	-0.72	2.74	403	82
Nate Lavender L 2023 · 4.01 FIP	23	SU	4.01	30.2%	9.9%	4.0%	.281	2.48	33.9%	27.3%	55	-1.53	2.48	146	81
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	81
Taylor Tankersley L 2006 · 3.65 FIP	23	SU	3.65	25.8%	11.8%	2.2%	.271	4.62	21.6%	9.8%	65	+0.97	3.65	118	81
Scott Elbert L 2009 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	25.3%	8.4%	4.8%	.294	2.95	23.2%	15.1%	66	-1.73	2.32	105	80
Darien Núñez L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	26.4%	11.0%	1.8%	.377	2.59	34.2%	23.5%	78	-0.68	2.48	122	79
Andrew Mitchell L 2018 · 3.75 FIP	23	SU	3.75	21.8%	7.5%	2.8%	.333	2.71	23.8%	15.8%	78	-1.04	2.51	119	79
Robert Garcia L 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SU	4.35	24.0%	11.4%	3.3%	.342	4.38	22.0%	10.4%	106	+0.03	2.21	471	78
Will Ohman L 2001 · 4.66 FIP	23	SU	4.66	22.2%	11.1%	3.7%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	350	78
Easton Lucas L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	23.6%	9.2%	3.7%	.316	4.00	21.5%	11.9%	184	-0.29	3.38	311	78
Wesley Moore L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	25.9%	13.2%	1.9%	.254	4.18	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.56	3.62	111	77
Jack Leathersich L 2015 · 3.70 FIP	25	SU	3.70	30.6%	13.2%	2.8%	.339	3.74	28.6%	11.9%	76	+0.04	3.16	101	77
Kyle Nelson L 2019 · 4.00 FIP	23	SU	4.00	27.8%	8.4%	4.0%	.241	3.38	20.8%	8.1%	63	-0.62	0.90	214	77
Brian Fuentes L 2002 · 3.64 FIP	26	SU	3.64	32.2%	11.0%	3.4%	.333	3.19	26.2%	17.3%	194	-0.45	2.08	602	76
Dale Stanavich L 2023 · 3.09 FIP	24	SU	3.09	25.2%	12.2%	1.0%	.365	4.93	24.7%	10.3%	154	+1.84	3.09	184	76
Jimmy Burnette L 2022 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	29.8%	15.2%	2.0%	.297	3.82	22.1%	6.7%	101	+0.23	3.00	158	75
Mike Zagurski L 2007 · 4.10 FIP	24	SU	4.10	20.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	75